Global News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Sunday, January 11, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets, and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Companies.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on January 11, 2026, capture the attention of investors and market participants with their scale and contradictory trends. Geopolitical tension is reaching new heights: the United States is tightening sanctions in the energy sector, threatening a redistribution of global oil and gas flows. Simultaneously, the world oil and gas markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices, after a decline in 2025, have stabilized at moderate levels, reflecting a balance between supply excess and restrained demand. The European gas market is enduring the peak of winter without turmoil - record gas stocks and warm weather keep prices low, ensuring comfort for consumers. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy sources are setting new generation records, although countries still rely on traditional hydrocarbons for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following a surge in fuel prices last autumn, authorities continue to implement measures to stabilize the domestic oil products market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodities sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Keeps Prices at Moderate Levels
Worldwide oil prices are holding relative stability at low levels, influenced by fundamental supply and demand factors. The North Sea Brent blend is trading around $60–62 per barrel, while American WTI is in the range of $55–59. Current quotes are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting the continued market correction in 2025 following the peaks of the energy crisis of 2022–2023. Concerns over overproduction are weighing on prices: OPEC+ countries increased production by nearly 3 million barrels per day last year, regaining market share, while global demand growth slowed due to moderate economic growth and enhanced energy efficiency.
Market participants note that the alliance of major oil exporters is currently focusing on stability. In early January, eight key OPEC+ countries held a brief meeting and unanimously decided to maintain current production limits at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. This step is driven by seasonally low winter demand in the Northern Hemisphere and the desire to prevent new market oversaturation. Approval of the status quo on production levels was achieved despite political tensions within the cartel, with the priority remaining on preventing price declines. As a result of these preventive measures, oil prices remain within a narrow corridor, and volatility is decreasing. However, investors and oil companies are closely monitoring geopolitical events that could affect oil supply, whether through sanctions or regional conflicts, although fundamental factors currently outweigh these concerns.
Gas Market: Europe Confidently Navigates Winter as Prices Remain Low
On the gas market, attention is focused on Europe, which enters the new year with a reliable safety buffer. By the onset of winter, EU countries had injected record volumes of gas into their underground storage facilities, filling them to nearly 100% by the end of 2025. Even now, during the peak heating season, stocks remain significantly above the average levels of past years, ensuring supply security. An additional stability factor is the mild weather in Europe in December and early January, which has reduced the draw from storage facilities. Alongside increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, this keeps natural gas prices at moderate levels.
The benchmark TTF index at the beginning of January fluctuates around €25–30 per MWh, which is significantly lower than the peak values of the energy crisis two years ago. For European industries and consumers, such price levels have been a noticeable relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and heating bills for households have decreased compared to last winter. The market is prepared for possible weather surprises—short-term cold spells may temporarily boost demand and prices, but systemic risks of fuel shortages are currently absent. Furthermore, global gas consumption is expected to rise in 2026 (according to IEA estimates, global gas consumption could reach a new record), primarily driven by Asia. Yet, for now, the supply of LNG and pipeline gas is sufficient to meet demand, while Europe’s strategy of diversifying suppliers and energy conservation is proving effective.
International Politics: US Sanctions Pressure and Crisis in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly influence sentiments in energy markets. In early 2026, the United States intensified sanctions pressure related to Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump has endorsed the advancement of a new law aimed at punishing countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas. This bipartisan bill proposes imposing extraordinarily high tariffs—up to 500%—on imports to the US from countries that "consciously trade" with Russia in energy resources. The goal is to deprive Moscow of revenues that Washington believes fuel the military conflict in Ukraine. Major buyers of Russian oil, such as China and India, as well as several other Asian, African, and Latin American countries, are affected. These measures have already complicated US relations with key developing economies: Beijing is openly protesting against external interference in its trade, arguing that the legitimate economic ties between China and Russia should not be politicized. India, for its part, is attempting to maneuver—while it has indeed reduced the share of Russian oil in its imports, it is negotiating with Washington on easing previously imposed US tariffs on Indian goods.
Another notable event is a sudden turn in Venezuela that could impact the global oil market. In the early days of January, it was reported that the US conducted a military operation, resulting in the detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by American troops. President Trump stated that Washington is taking responsibility to assist in the transitional governance of the country until it becomes possible to form a new government. This unprecedented action has provoked a sharp reaction on the international stage: several countries, including China, condemned the violation of sovereignty and international law principles. However, many investors in the oil and gas sector are now wondering whether the regime change in Caracas could lead to a gradual return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but its production has plummeted in recent years due to sanctions and management crises. Experts agree that even with political changes, an immediate export increase is unlikely: the country’s oil sector requires substantial investments and modernization. Nevertheless, a potential lifting of sanctions against Venezuela in the future could add additional volumes of heavy oil to the market, representing a new factor in the balance of power within OPEC+. Thus, political uncertainty—from sanction wars to regime changes in oil-producing countries—remains a backdrop that FEC market participants cannot ignore, but for now, its influence is counterbalanced by excess supply and coordinated actions among producers.
Asia: Balancing Between Import and Domestic Production
Asian countries, key drivers of energy demand, are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet the growing needs of their economies. The actions of India and China are particularly notable, with their choices significantly impacting the global market:
- India: New Delhi is aiming to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressures. Following the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, India increased its purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, under the threat of Western trade restrictions, it somewhat reduced the share of Russia in its oil imports. At the same time, the country is betting on developing domestic resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a National Program for the Exploration of Deepwater Oil and Gas Fields. The goal is to open new offshore fields and increase output to satisfy the rapidly growing domestic demand, which is not met by current production levels. Additionally, India is rapidly expanding renewable energy capacities (solar and wind power plants) and liquefied gas infrastructure, aiming to diversify its energy balance. Nonetheless, oil and gas remain fundamental to its energy supply, necessary for industry and transportation, so India is forced to delicately balance the benefits of importing cheap fuel against the risk of sanctions.
- China: The world's second-largest economy continues its course to strengthen energy self-sufficiency, combining increased extraction of traditional resources with unprecedented investments in clean energy. In 2025, China ramped up domestic coal and oil production to record levels to meet demand and decrease import dependency. Simultaneously, the share of coal in the country’s electricity generation has dropped to a multi-year low (~55%), as billions of dollars are invested in solar, wind, and hydropower plants. According to analysts, China installed more renewable energy capacity in the first half of 2025 than the rest of the world combined, which even allowed for a reduction in absolute fossil fuel consumption. However, in absolute terms, China’s appetite for oil and gas remains enormous: petroleum imports, including those from Russia, continue to play a significant role in meeting needs, particularly in the transportation and chemicals sectors. Beijing is also actively securing long-term contracts for LNG supplies and developing nuclear energy. It is expected that in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China will set even more ambitious goals to increase the share of non-carbon energy, while also reserving traditional capacities—a precaution against energy shortages, remembering the blackouts of the past decade. Thus, China is progressing on two fronts: implementing future clean technologies while consolidating them with a reliable foundation of coal, oil, and gas in the present.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025, confirming its irreversibility. Record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources were reported in many countries. According to international analytical centers, the total production from wind and solar exceeded that of all coal-fired power plants combined for the first time. This historic milestone was achieved thanks to a sharp increase in new capacities: during the first half of 2025, global generation from solar power plants grew by nearly 30% compared to the same period the previous year, while wind generation increased by 7%. This was sufficient to cover the primary growth in global electricity demand and allowed for reduced fossil fuel usage in several regions.
At the same time, the energy transition is accompanied by challenges related to the reliability of electricity supply. When demand growth exceeds the input of “green” capacity or adverse weather conditions occur (calm, drought, extreme cold), systems are forced to compensate for the difference with traditional generation. For instance, in 2025, the US, faced with an economic revival, increased generation at coal-fired power plants since renewable sources weren’t sufficient to meet the entire rise in consumption. In Europe, due to weak winds and hydro resources in the summer and autumn, gas and coal burning partially increased to meet needs. These examples underscore that coal, gas, and nuclear power plants are still playing a backup role, compensating for the variability of sun and wind. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other technologies to smooth these fluctuations. However, in the near term, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: the rapid growth of renewables will go hand in hand with the maintenance of significant roles for oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, which ensure the stability of energy systems.
Coal: High Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The coal market demonstrates how inertia can characterize global energy consumption. Despite global efforts to decarbonize, coal usage worldwide remains at record high levels. According to preliminary data, global coal demand rose another 0.5% in 2025, reaching about 8.85 billion tons—a historic maximum. The primary growth came from Asian economies. In China, which consumes over half of the world’s coal, coal-fired power generation has decreased in relative terms (thanks to record renewable installations), but remains enormous in absolute volumes. Furthermore, Beijing, concerned about energy supply risks, approved the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2025, aiming to prevent disruptions. India and Southeast Asia are also continuing to actively burn coal to satisfy rising energy demand, as alternatives are not keeping pace with economic growth in all regions.
Electricity coal prices stabilized in 2025 after sharp jumps in previous years. On benchmark Asian markets (e.g., Australian Newcastle coal), prices remained at levels significantly below the peak of 2022 but still higher than pre-crisis backgrounds. This stimulates mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of the decade and then decline as climate policies strengthen and new renewable capacities come online. However, in the short term, coal remains a crucial part of the energy balance for many countries. It ensures base generation and heat for industry; consequently, until effective substitutes are implemented, demand for coal will remain strong. Thus, the confrontation between climate goals and economic realities continues to define the fate of the coal industry: the trend towards reduction is evident, but the “swan song” of coal is not yet sung.
Russian Oil Products Market: Fuel Price Stabilization Through Government Efforts
In Russia's domestic fuel sector, relative stabilization has recently been observed, achieved through unprecedented government measures. In August-September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel on Russian exchanges reached record levels, surpassing even the crisis levels of 2023. The reasons included a combination of high seasonal demand (summer transport and harvest campaigns) and several supply constraints—such as unscheduled repairs and accidents at several refineries, which curtailed output. To prevent shortages and protect consumers from price shocks, authorities quickly intervened in market mechanisms and implemented an emergency plan to normalize the situation:
- Export Ban: In mid-August, the government imposed a complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel, applicable to all producers—from independent plants to the largest oil companies. This measure, extended until the end of September, returned hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel to the domestic market that had previously been exported monthly.
- Partial Resumption of Supplies: From October 2025 onwards, as the domestic market became saturated, restrictions began to be gradually eased. Major refineries were allowed to resume some export shipments under strict government oversight, while smaller traders and intermediaries largely retained export barriers. Thus, the export channel was opened cautiously to avoid new price spikes domestically.
- Fuel Distribution Control: One of the measures involved increasing control over the movement of oil products within the country. Producers were mandated to prioritize domestic consumer requests and were prohibited from engaging in mutual exchanges of fuel on the exchange between companies (which had previously driven up prices). The government and relevant agencies (Ministry of Energy, FAS) developed mechanisms for direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing speculative buyers to ensure fair pricing.
- Market Subsidization: Financial instruments were also employed to curb prices. The state increased budget subsidies for oil refining enterprises and expanded the use of a dampening mechanism (reverse excise tax), compensating companies for lost profits when selling fuel on the domestic market instead of exporting it. These payouts incentivize oil companies to direct sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to gas stations domestically, without fear of losses.
The combination of these measures has already yielded results by the beginning of 2026. Wholesale fuel prices have retreated from peak levels, and retail prices at gas stations have risen only moderately (about 5–6% for the entire year of 2025, which is close to inflation levels). The physical shortage of gasoline and diesel in the domestic market has been prevented—gas stations are stocked with fuel, including in rural areas during the autumn work period. The Russian government assures that it will maintain strict control over the situation: at the slightest indication of a new imbalance, fresh restrictions or interventions from state fuel reserves may be swiftly introduced. For participants in the FEC market, such policies mean predictable domestic prices, although oil product exporters have to contend with partial restrictions. Overall, the stabilization of the domestic fuel market strengthens confidence that even amid external challenges—sanctions and volatility in global prices—domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be kept within acceptable limits, protecting the interests of consumers and the economy.
