Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Global Energy Market as of December 9, 2025: Oil, Gas, Coal, Renewable Energy, OPEC+ Politics, Sanction Risks, Demand in Asia, and the State of the Global Energy Market.
Global Oil Prices
On Tuesday, global oil prices remained under pressure, slightly below recent highs. Brent crude futures fell to approximately $62.9 per barrel, while WTI dropped to $59.2. Market participants are awaiting the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding interest rates on December 9-10: markets are estimating an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut. A shift in monetary policy could increase demand for oil; however, the prospects of a peace agreement in Ukraine and the easing of sanctions are keeping prices in check.
- Expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve are boosting risk appetite and energy demand.
- Negotiations regarding Ukraine show no significant progress, leading to uncertainty about the future volume of Russian oil in the global market.
- OPEC+ decisions stabilize production, limiting short-term fluctuations in supply.
Negotiations on Ukraine and New Sanctions
The slowdown in peace negotiations concerning Ukraine this week is increasing uncertainty in the energy market. Both Ukrainian and Russian sides have yet to reach substantial progress: key disagreements revolve around security guarantees and the status of contested territories. Ukrainian President Volodyr Zelensky met with EU leaders in London, while former U.S. President Donald Trump promoted his own peace plan, which could potentially lead to a surge in Russian oil supply if an agreement is reached.
- The G7 currency union and the European Union are discussing a complete ban on maritime services for Russian tankers instead of the current price cap.
- The U.S. administration is intensifying pressure on Maduro's regime in Venezuela: strikes on drug-trafficking vessels have taken place, and steps toward regime change are being discussed.
- Independent Chinese refiners are increasing purchases of sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude, leveraging new quotas and price discounts.
OPEC+ and Production Quotas
In their latest meeting in early December, OPEC+ countries agreed to an annual assessment of the production capacities of participants. This new approach aims to align quotas with actual extraction capabilities and to support investor confidence in the cartel's agreements. Representatives from Saudi Arabia noted that the decisions made will stabilize the market and reward those investing in increased production.
- Capacity audits will be conducted starting in 2026 to establish baseline production levels for 2027.
- Nineteen OPEC+ member states will enlist foreign consultants to assess their capacities; Russia, Iran, and Venezuela will utilize alternative methods due to U.S. sanctions.
- OPEC+ is aiming to address the "actual gap" between quotas and the current production level in several countries.
Rising Demand in Asia: India and China
India is showing record demand for petroleum products. In November, domestic fuel consumption rose to a six-month high, with diesel sales experiencing a notable increase. New Delhi is actively purchasing Russian oil at substantial discounts, despite U.S. pressure. During President Putin's recent visit to India, guarantees for steady fuel supplies were discussed, while local refiners cautiously diversify their imports through non-Russian channels. This surge in demand reflects the economic recovery in Asia as it emerges from the pandemic.
- Diesel deliveries to India rose by 12% month-on-month, and overall demand exceeded last year's figures by approximately 3%. State-owned refineries are planning to source oil from alternative suppliers in January.
- China is increasing coal imports for the heating season: November purchases rose compared to October but remain below last year's levels. Strategic reserves provide a fuel buffer for 35 days.
- Given the record energy consumption this winter, China will continue to rely on coal generation and fuel imports amid production constraints as part of a campaign against overcapacity.
Natural Gas and Energy Generation
Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly a year and a half, attributed to warm weather, record LNG supplies from the United States, and expectations of a relaxation of sanctions. January TTF futures are trading at approximately $335-$340 per thousand cubic meters, and the filling level of underground gas storage in the EU has stabilized above 70%. In the U.S., cold weather has led to a sharp rise in prices in the Northeast region: wholesale quotes at Algonquin exceeded $20/MMBtu, prompting energy producers to switch back to coal.
- Europe: Warm December weather and LNG abundance are keeping prices low and reducing the risk of fuel shortages for the heating season.
- U.S.: Extreme cold weather records in the Northeast states are driving up local prices and increasing demand for coal-fired generation.
- Energy Supply: The European Commission is preparing a centralized plan to modernize cross-border electricity networks to alleviate bottlenecks and reduce energy costs.
- Increased electricity demand (partly due to data centers and AI) is encouraging American companies (NextEra, Exelon) to enter into new "green" contracts and invest in capacities.
Renewable Energy and Climate Policy
At the COP30 summit in Brazil, countries agreed to increase financial support for climate adaptation but backed away from strict commitments to phase out fossil fuels. The central theme remains the tension between oil and gas interests and global emission reduction goals. China and India are strengthening their influence in the development of "green" technologies: China is promoting the export of solar panels and batteries, while India has launched new wind and solar parks. The conference culminated in ongoing debates about climate ambitions—formally adopting an adaptation program but without specific timelines or monitoring mechanisms.
- A key decision from COP30 is a threefold increase in climate adaptation funding from developed countries.
- The final documents lack a strict roadmap for reducing oil and gas extraction: fossil fuel countries are maintaining their positions.
- Technologies: Producers of "green" electronics are increasing capacities. Wind and solar power plants continue to grow production while simultaneously investing in energy networks.
Trends in the Coal Market
Due to rising natural gas prices, some consumers are reverting to coal. In the U.S., coal production and generation at coal-fired power plants are rising: many companies are reducing their gas generation fleets in favor of cheaper coal. This shift leads to increased coal emissions but ensures energy reliability during peak winter seasons.
- U.S.: Winter demand and record LNG exports are driving up gas prices, prompting energy producers to revert to coal.
- Asia: China and India are maintaining high import levels of coal for electricity generation. Despite seasonal fluctuations, supply volumes remain significant.
- Prices: On the global market, coal prices have risen from summer lows, although the growth is limited by substantial coal inventories in Chinese storage facilities.
Refining and Petroleum Products
The petroleum products market remains tight: global gasoline and diesel prices have risen due to seasonal demand. Major refineries are operating at full capacity to offset supply constraints and meet domestic needs. Potential easing of sanctions on Russia could alter the balance of petroleum product supplies and adjust pricing dynamics in the fuel market. Refineries are preparing for possible changes in supply routes, increasing inventories of products, and readjusting logistics.
- Demand for diesel remains high, particularly in Asian countries and emerging markets where economic activity is strengthening.
- European refineries are increasing fuel inventories and preparing alternative loading schemes in anticipation of possible revisions to sanction restrictions.
