Latest Updates on Startups and Venture Capital Investments as of September 18, 2026: OpenAI's Negotiations for a New Round, Mega-Rounds in AI Development, Record Premium for Research Teams, New Unicorns, Valuation Gap Between Europe and the US, Transactions in India, and IPO Window Assessment Amidst High Capital Costs

By the end of the third week of September, the global venture capital market is living in two realities. On one hand, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023 — to 3.75–4.00%, the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds exceeded 5%, and 16 out of 18 committee members expect one more increase by the end of the year. On the other hand, private equity continues to vastly overvalue leaders in artificial intelligence in just a few months. For venture investors and funds, Friday, September 18, becomes a test: will the appetite for risk withstand the new cost of money?

Key topics on the venture agenda:

• OpenAI is in early negotiations for a round at a valuation above $1.2 trillion.
• Factory has raised $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion — three times higher than in April.
• Discovery Loop, founded by Jeff Dean, is seeking capital at a valuation of around $50 billion, without a product or revenue.
• New unicorns: Profound ($1.8 billion), CADDi ($1.2 billion), Thatch ($1 billion).
• Europe: the median valuation of AI startups is nearly eight times lower than in the US.
• IPO: Holtec is expected to debut on Nasdaq on Friday, while Oura is preparing to list by the end of the month.

OpenAI and the Race for Trillion-Dollar Valuations

OpenAI has conducted preliminary negotiations for a new funding round that could value the company at over $1.2 trillion. The initiative came from investors, and the terms of the deal may still change. In March, the company closed the largest private round in history — $122 billion at a valuation of $852 billion, so a new benchmark would imply a growth of around 41% in less than six months. In August, a tender offer for employee shares worth $7 billion was executed at the previous valuation.

The logic is clear: IPO documentation has been filed confidentially, but the listing has been pushed to 2027, and the private round provides capital without the obligation for public disclosure. Revenue on an annual basis exceeded $40 billion in July; however, 2025 closed with a net loss of $38.5 billion on revenue of about $13 billion. Competitor Anthropic, which raised $65 billion in May at a valuation of $965 billion, is reportedly preparing to list on Nasdaq this fall, while its shares are trading on the secondary market with an implied valuation of around $1.2 trillion. The company that goes public first will set the multiplier for the entire sector.

AI Development: Factory and the Price of "Software Factories"

Startup Factory, creating AI agents called Droids for writing, testing, reviewing, and deploying code, has raised $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion. The round was supported by Khosla Ventures, Blackstone, and Sequoia Capital, with business angels including Marc Benioff, Brad Gerstner, and Nico Rosberg. The valuation dynamics are indicative:

1. April — Series C at $150 million with a valuation of $1.5 billion;
2. July — extension of $120 million at a valuation of $4 billion;
3. September — $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion, totaling over $400 million raised.

Among its clients are Nvidia, Adobe, Morgan Stanley, and Palo Alto Networks. The segment is overheated: Cognition raised over $2 billion in September at a valuation of $48 billion, and SpaceX acquired developer Cursor for $60 billion. Venture funds will have to determine whether corporate demand is sufficient for multiple players offering the same thesis.

Team Premium: Discovery Loop and Thinking Machines

Discovery Loop, founded on August 5 by former Google chief scientist Jeff Dean along with Sanjay Gemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals, is in talks for funding at a valuation of around $50 billion. Just weeks earlier, a discussion was held for $1 billion at an approximate valuation of $10 billion. The first round was led by Radical Ventures and Khosla Ventures, with participation from Lightspeed and Kleiner Perkins, and Alphabet acts as the founding investor. The company aims to automate scientific experiments, but currently has neither a product nor revenue. Thinking Machines Lab, led by Mira Murati, is concurrently discussing $1 billion at a valuation of $40 billion. The market is paying not for metrics but for access to rare research teams — this is the riskiest segment of the current cycle.

New Unicorns and Infrastructure Rounds of the Week

• Profound — $180 million Series D at a valuation of $1.8 billion led by Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins, seven months after Series C; the platform helps brands appear in AI search responses.
• CADDi — $114 million Series D at a valuation of $1.2 billion; an AI data platform for industrial manufacturing.
• Thatch — $108 million at a valuation of $1 billion from General Catalyst and Index Ventures.
• Lyte — $165 million Series C at a valuation of $1.6 billion; perception systems for "physical AI".
• TAR — $120 million Series A at a valuation of $1 billion from Spark Capital; autonomous energy supply for data centers.
• Crusoe and Fluidstack — over $3 billion at valuations of about $30 billion and $1.5 billion at $18 billion, respectively.

The common factor remains: venture capital is flowing to areas facing shortages — computing, energy, industrial data.

Europe: Growth Volume with an Eightfold Discount

According to PitchBook, the median pre-money valuation of AI startups in Europe is €8.3 million compared to €64.2 million in the US. At the same time, artificial intelligence accounted for 60.2% of the value of European venture deals in the first half of the year as opposed to 37.8% in 2025, with total volume reaching €44 billion. Recent rounds include Integral (€18 million Series A, Mosaic Ventures and Reid Hoffman), Hackuity ($19 million Series B), and Veridion ($20 million Series A). Crane Venture Partners closed four funds totaling $484 million. For global investors, the European discount is both a liquidity risk and an entry point.

Asia: India Increases Weekly Volume

During the week of September 7–12, 24 Indian startups raised approximately $413 million — 42% more than the previous week. Leaders include space company Pixxel ($100 million Series C from Temasek and Seraphim), restaurant chain Popo Global ($56 million from Artal Asia), and brand Nua ($50 million, Peak XV Partners). Since the beginning of the year, India has raised $16.3 billion across 1,450 rounds: fewer deals, larger checks.

IPO and Macro: A Test for the IPO Window

Trading for Holtec Nuclear is expected to commence on Nasdaq on Friday under the ticker HNUC: 50 million shares priced between $15–18, approximately $825 million at the midpoint, and a valuation of up to $10.2 billion. Demand for nuclear energy is fueled by data centers, but the sector is heterogeneous: X-energy is trading below its offering price, while Standard Nuclear dropped on its first day. Oura anticipates a listing by the end of September at a valuation above $16 billion. The market's reaction to the Fed was muted for technology: the Dow lost 1.2%, while Nasdaq barely changed. The next benchmark is the Bank of Japan's decision.

Russia and CIS: A Market of Isolated Deals

Various estimates suggest that the Russian venture market shrank by about half in the first half of 2026, with the number of active investors dropping from 50 to 33; one methodology evaluates the volume at only $29.3 million. In the CIS, 92% of investments were secured by the Uzbek marketplace Uzum at $131.5 million, with Uzbekistan accounting for 44 out of 58 deals in the region. Capital is concentrating in mature companies with proven revenues.

What This Means for Venture Investors and Funds

1. The discount rate has risen, and so have leader valuations. The gap between AI elites and the rest of the market will widen; late-stage companies outside of AI can expect a reevaluation of multipliers.
2. The speed of revaluation is a standalone risk. A tripling in five months requires validation of revenue retention, not just growth rates.
3. Bets on teams without a product are justified only within portfolio logic and with a limited share of the fund.
4. Geography provides arbitrage. The European discount and Indian early rounds appear more attractive than overheated US segments.
5. Liquidity will define the fall. The debuts of Holtec and Oura will indicate whether the public market is ready to accept new listings amidst yields above 5%.

The venture market enters the last decade of September with record private valuations and the highest cost of money in three years. Startups that can prove economic viability to investors rather than mere potential will come out on top.