Key News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, February 9, 2026
At the start of February 2026, global oil prices remain relatively stable, staying within the high $60 per barrel range. Benchmark Brent is trading around $68–70, while American WTI is in the $64–66 range. Following a decline in the second half of 2025, prices have partially recovered due to coordinated actions by OPEC+ and certain geopolitical factors. However, overall market pressure persists due to excess supply and uncertainty in the global economy. Western countries continue to increase sanctions pressure: starting this February, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to approximately $45 per barrel, and the European Union announced the 20th sanctions package against Russia this week, which includes a complete ban on servicing maritime transports of Russian oil and adding dozens of “shadow fleet” tankers to the sanctions list. These measures complicate Russian export deliveries and increase the risk of logistical disruptions. At the same time, India has seen a sharp decline in purchases of Russian oil—according to January data, imports fell by more than three times compared to last year, indicating a possible reorientation of trade flows.
Within the Russian domestic market, the government continues to closely monitor fuel prices. The Federal Antimonopoly Service is conducting unscheduled inspections of oil companies in response to inflation risks in the sector. Winter cold has led to new records in energy consumption: in several regions, peak loads on the energy system and historical maxima in gas demand have been recorded. However, the energy system has managed to cope with the increased load by utilizing reserves, avoiding serious disruptions. Concurrently, the global energy transition is not losing momentum—investments in renewable energy are reaching new heights, and in 2025, for the first time, the share of “green” generation in the EU exceeded electricity generated from fossil fuels. In this review, we examine current trends in global oil and gas markets, analyze the situation in Russia's fuel and energy complex, and highlight key events in the coal, electricity, and renewable energy sectors.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Sanction Pressure
At the beginning of February, oil prices stabilized at moderate levels following a slight increase. North Sea Brent is holding steady at around $68–70 per barrel, while American WTI fluctuates in the $64–66 range, bouncing back from late 2025 lows ($60). The market is supported by signals from OPEC+ regarding their readiness to limit supply amid fragile demand. Major oil exporters suspended planned production increases at the end of last year and confirmed the extension of existing production limits at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026, aiming to prevent oversupply during the seasonally weak winter demand. The main factors and risks affecting the oil market include:
- OPEC+ Policy and Demand. The alliance members continue to adhere to significant voluntary production cuts (approximately 3.7 million barrels per day), having abandoned previously planned increases. OPEC predicts a growth in global oil demand in 2026 of approximately +1.2 million barrels/day (to around 105 million barrels/day), although it notes that a slowdown in the Chinese economy and high interest rates in the US and Europe may adjust these expectations. The oil alliance is closely monitoring the market and is prepared to respond promptly to prevent imbalances: short-term geopolitical incidents (such as the recent escalation in the Middle East) have already demonstrated OPEC+’s readiness to intervene if necessary to stabilize prices.
- Sanctions and Redistribution of Flows. The sanctions standoff surrounding Russian oil is intensifying and continues to affect the global market. The new 20th package of EU sanctions tightens restrictions: European companies are prohibited from insuring and financing tankers transporting oil from Russia, and the "blacklist" of violating vessels has been expanded. Additionally, since February, Western countries have lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $45, increasing pressure on Moscow’s export revenues. Despite this, Russian hydrocarbons continue to find buyers in Asia, but competition for these markets is growing. In January, India—the largest importer of Russian oil in 2025—reduced purchases to about a third of last year's level, partially reorienting towards other sources. This indicates the flexibility of Asian consumers and forces Russian exporters to actively redirect supplies to China, Turkey, Southeast Asia, and other alternative directions.
Thus, the combination of factors prevents oil prices from collapsing, but also limits their growth. The market is factoring in both the risks of economic slowdown (which reduce demand) and the potential for a deficit in the second half of the year if sanctions significantly curtail supply. For now, prices remain relatively stable, and volatility is low by recent years' standards.
Natural Gas Market: Lower Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February 2026, the European gas market remains relatively calm despite increased winter consumption. Underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in the EU are rapidly depleting as the heating season progresses, but relatively mild weather in the second half of January and record LNG supplies are helping to avoid shortages and price shocks. Futures at the TTF hub are holding around $10–12 per million BTU, which is several times lower than the peaks of 2022 and reflects the market's confidence in the availability of gas this winter. In Russia, early February saw a historic peak in daily gas consumption—abnormal cold weather established records for extraction from the gas transportation system for several consecutive days.
Several key trends define the situation in the gas market:
- Depletion of Stocks and New Injection Season. Winter withdrawals are quickly reducing gas stocks in European storage facilities. By the end of January, UGS in the EU had dropped to about 45% of total capacity—the lowest level for this time of year since 2022, significantly below long-term averages (~58%). If current trends persist, stocks could fall to around 30% by the end of March. To raise levels back to a comfortable 80–90% before next winter, European importers will need to inject around 60 billion cubic meters of gas during the inter-season period. Achieving this will require maximizing purchases during the warmer months, especially since a significant portion of current imports is used immediately for consumption.
- Record LNG Deliveries. Reduced pipeline supplies are being compensated by unprecedented imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2025, European countries purchased about 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% compared to the previous year), and in 2026, imports are projected to reach 185 billion. The increase in procurement is made possible by expanding global supply: the commissioning of new LNG plants in the US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries leads to an estimated additional 7% growth in global LNG production this year (the highest rates since 2019). The European market is counting on high LNG procurement to survive the heating season, especially as the EU has decided to completely cease importing Russian gas by 2027, necessitating the replacement of approximately 33 billion cubic meters annually with additional LNG volumes.
- Shift to the East. Russia, having lost the European gas market, is increasing supplies to the East. Volumes pumped through the "Power of Siberia" pipeline to China reached record levels (close to the projected capacity of ~22 billion cubic meters per year), while Moscow is accelerating negotiations for a second pipeline through Mongolia. Russian producers are also increasing LNG exports to Asia from the Far East and the Arctic. However, even with the Eastern direction, total gas exports from Russia have significantly decreased compared to pre-2022 levels. The long-term reconfiguration of gas flows continues, establishing a new global gas supply map.
Overall, the gas market is entering the second half of winter without the previous turbulence: prices remain moderate, and volatility has decreased to a minimum in recent years.
Product Market and Refineries: Stabilization of Supply and Regulatory Measures
The global product market (gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, etc.) is relatively stable at the beginning of 2026 after a period of price upheavals in previous years. Demand for fuel remains high due to the recovery of transportation activity and industrial growth, but increasing global refining capacities facilitate the satisfaction of this demand. After shortages and price peaks in 2022–2023, the supply situation for gasoline and diesel is gradually normalizing, although disruptions are still observed in certain regions. Key trends in the fuel market include:
- Increase in Refining Capacities. New refineries are coming online in Asia and the Middle East, increasing global fuel production. For instance, the modernization of the Bapco refinery in Bahrain has expanded its capacity from 267 to 380 thousand barrels/day, and new facilities have started operating in China and India. According to OPEC, global refining potential is expected to grow by approximately 0.6 million barrels/day annually between 2025 and 2027. Increased fuel supply has already led to a decrease in refining margins compared to the record levels of 2022–2023, alleviating price pressure for consumers.
- Price Stabilization and Local Disbalances. Gasoline and diesel prices have moved away from peak levels, reflecting lower oil prices and increased fuel supply. However, local spikes are still possible: recent cold weather in North America temporarily heightened demand for heating fuel, while in some European countries, a premium on diesel persists due to the restructuring of supply chains following the embargo on Russian supplies. Governments are sometimes using smoothing mechanisms—from lowering fuel excise taxes to releasing part of strategic reserves—to keep prices under control during sudden spikes in demand.
- Government Regulation of the Market. In some countries, authorities are directly intervening in the fuel market to stabilize supply. In Russia, following the fuel crisis of 2025, restrictions on the export of petroleum products have remained: the ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel for independent traders has been extended until summer 2026, with state oil companies allowed only limited shipments abroad. Simultaneously, the damping mechanism, which compensates refineries for the difference between internal and export prices, encouraging supplies to the domestic market, has been extended. These measures have alleviated the fuel shortage at gas stations, although they underscore the significance of manual management. In other regions (e.g., some countries in Asia), authorities have also resorted to temporary support measures—tax cuts, transportation subsidies, or increased import supplies—to mitigate the effects of sharp fluctuations in fuel prices.
Electricity Generation: Growing Demand and Network Modernization
The global electricity sector is facing accelerated demand growth alongside serious infrastructure challenges. According to the IEA, global electricity consumption is expected to grow by more than 3.5% per year over the next five years—significantly outpacing the total energy consumption growth. Driving factors include the electrification of transport (increasing electric vehicle fleets), the digitalization of the economy (expansion of data centers, development of AI), and climate factors (active use of air conditioning in hot climates). Following a period of stagnation in the 2010s, electricity demand is rapidly increasing again, even in developed countries.
In early 2026, extreme cold led to record peak loads on energy systems in several countries. To avoid outages, operators had to utilize backup coal and oil-fired power plants. Although by the end of 2025, the share of coal in the EU's electricity generation has decreased to a record low of 9%, this winter, some European countries have temporarily brought back shuttered coal plants to cover peak loads. At the same time, infrastructure bottlenecks have emerged: inadequate network capacity forced limitations on the output of renewable energy during windy days to avoid overloads. These events highlight the urgent need for accelerated modernization of grid infrastructure and development of energy storage systems.
Key priorities for the development of the electricity sector include:
- Modernization and Expansion of Networks. The growth in loads necessitates a massive overhaul and expansion of electricity network infrastructure. Many countries are launching accelerated programs for the construction of power lines and digitalization of energy system management. According to the IEA, currently, over 2500 GW of new generation and major consumer capacities are waiting to be connected to the networks—bureaucratic delays are measured in years. Annual investments in power grids are predicted to increase by approximately 50% by 2030, otherwise, generation development will outpace infrastructure capabilities.
- Reliability and Energy Storage. Energy companies are implementing new technologies to maintain stable electricity supply during record loads. Energy storage systems are being developed worldwide—industrial battery farms of high capacity are being constructed in California and Texas (USA), Germany, the UK, Australia, and other regions. Such batteries help balance daily peaks and integrate intermittent renewable generation. Concurrently, network protection is being enhanced: the industry is investing in cybersecurity and equipment upgrades, considering risks of reliability deterioration due to extreme weather, aging infrastructure, and cyberattack threats. Governments and energy companies are directing considerable funds toward improving the flexibility and robustness of energy systems to prevent widespread outages amid increasing economic dependence on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. The year 2025 was record-breaking for the commissioning of renewable energy sources (RES)—primarily solar and wind power plants. According to preliminary IEA data, in 2025, the share of RES in the total volume of electricity generation worldwide was equal to the share of coal (around 30%), while nuclear generation also reached record levels. In 2026, clean energy production will continue to increase at an accelerated pace. Global investments in the energy transition are reaching new highs: according to BNEF, over $2.3 trillion were invested in clean energy and electric transport projects in 2025 (+8% compared to 2024). Governments of leading economies are enhancing support for “green” technologies, seeing them as drivers of sustainable growth.
Despite impressive progress, the rapid development of RES is accompanied by challenges. The experience of winter 2025/26 revealed that with a high share of intermittent generation, the presence of backup capacities and storage systems becomes critically important: even advanced “green” energy systems are vulnerable to weather anomalies. To enhance stability, some countries are adjusting their policies: for example, Germany is considering extending the operation of nuclear reactors, acknowledging that a complete phase-out of nuclear energy is premature, while the EU is temporarily easing some climate regulations to prevent price spikes. Nevertheless, the long-term course toward decarbonization remains unchanged—its implementation requires a more flexible and balanced approach, combining the accelerated adoption of RES with maintaining reliability in energy supply.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amidst Coal Phase-Out
The global coal market in 2026 remains on the rise: global coal consumption is holding steady at historically high levels, despite efforts to reduce its usage. According to IEA data, in 2025, global coal demand exceeded 8 billion tons—approaching record levels. The main reason is the consistently high demand in Asia. Economies such as China and India continue to burn massive volumes of coal for electricity generation and industrial needs, offsetting the decline in coal usage in Western Europe and the US.
- Asian Appetite. China and India account for a lion's share of global coal consumption. China, responsible for nearly 50% of global demand, even while producing more than 4 billion tons of coal per year, is forced to increase imports during peak periods. India is also ramping up production, but due to its booming economy, it has to import significant volumes of fuel (mainly from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia). High demand in Asia supports coal prices at relatively high levels. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia—have seen their revenues increase due to stable orders from Asian countries.
- Gradual Phase-Out in the West. In Europe and North America, the coal sector continues to decline. After a temporary spike in the use of coal in the EU during 2022–2023, its share is again falling: by the end of 2025, coal accounted for less than 10% of electricity generation in the EU. Record investment in RES and the reactivation of nuclear capacities are driving coal out of the energy balance of developed countries. Investments in new coal projects have practically ceased outside Asia. It is expected that in the second half of the decade, global coal demand will begin to decline steadily, although in the short term, this fuel will continue to play an important role in meeting peak loads and industrial needs in developing economies.
Forecast and Prospects
Despite a series of winter disruptions, the global fuel and energy complex is entering February 2026 without signs of panic, though in a state of heightened readiness. Short-term factors—extreme weather and geopolitical tensions—support price volatility for oil and gas, but the systemic balance of supply and demand remains stable overall. OPEC+ continues to play a stabilizing role, preventing the oil market from entering deficit, while the operational redirection of supplies and increased production by other countries (such as the US) compensates for local disruptions.
If no new shocks occur, oil prices are likely to remain close to current levels until the next OPEC+ meeting, where the alliance may reconsider quotas based on the situation. For the gas market, the coming weeks will be decisive: mild weather in the second half of winter could lower prices and start replenishing stocks, while a new cold front threatens price spikes and difficulties for Europe. In spring, EU countries will face a massive campaign to refill UGS ahead of the next heating season—competition with Asia for LNG is expected to be tough.
Investors are closely watching political signals. Possible progress in resolving geopolitical conflicts (e.g., peace negotiations regarding Ukraine) or, conversely, escalating tensions (heightening the confrontation between the US and Iran) could significantly impact market sentiment. However, long-term development vectors—technological changes, global energy transition, and climate agenda—will continue to define the shape of the global energy sector, steering investment directions and industry transformations for years to come.
