Global News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of February 1, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Refineries. Key Events in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Industry Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of February 1, 2026, capture the attention of investors and market participants with their scale and mixed signals. Geopolitical tensions are once again escalating: the United States is intensifying sanctions in the energy sector, while risks of conflict in the Middle East are rising, creating uncertainty and prompting oil prices to soar to several-month highs. At the same time, global oil and gas markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices, which experienced a significant decline in 2025, have partially recovered lost ground, yet remain at moderate levels by historical standards—there remains a supply glut in the market amid subdued demand, and the OPEC+ alliance is keeping production under control. The European gas market is confidently navigating the winter season: record gas storage levels and mild weather in January are keeping prices low, providing comfort to consumers.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition continues to gain momentum: renewable energy sources are setting new generation records, although for the reliability of the energy systems, countries still depend on traditional hydrocarbons. In Russia, after a spike in fuel prices in the autumn, authorities are maintaining stringent measures to stabilize the domestic oil product market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Risks Prompt Price Increase
World oil prices sharply increased in the past week, reaching their highest levels in the last six months. However, overall oil prices remain relatively subdued due to fundamental market factors. The North Sea Brent blend has stabilized around $70–72 per barrel, while American WTI is in the range of $64–66. Current levels are still 10–15% lower than a year ago and far below the peak values experienced during the energy crisis of 2022–2023.
- OPEC+ Supply: Major oil exporters are maintaining discipline in their supply chains. In 2025, the OPEC+ alliance gradually increased output by nearly 3 million barrels per day (from April to December) as previous restrictions eased, leading to a supply surplus. However, at the start of 2026, considering seasonal low winter demand, OPEC+ countries have paused further increases. At a January meeting, the members unanimously decided to maintain the current production restrictions at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026 to prevent a new market oversupply. If necessary, the alliance indicates its readiness to cut output again. This preventive approach keeps oil prices within a narrow range and reduces volatility.
- Slowing Demand: Global oil consumption growth has significantly weakened. According to updated estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand in 2025 increased by only about 0.7 million barrels per day (compared to +2.5 million b/d in 2023). OPEC estimates the demand increase in 2025 at about +1.2 million b/d. The reasons include a slowdown in the global economy and the effects of the previous period of high prices that incentivized energy conservation. An additional contribution to the demand slowdown came from China: in the second half of 2025, industrial production and fuel consumption growth in China fell short of expectations (industrial output growth hit its lowest pace in 15 months).
- Geopolitical Factors: The oil market is simultaneously influenced by conflicting political forces. On one hand, the escalation of sanction-related tensions has intensified restrictions on energy resource trading. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the U.S. introduced the toughest sanctions in years against the Russian oil and gas sector (including a ban on transactions with several major companies), forcing some Asian buyers to reduce oil imports from Russia. Additionally, Washington has virtually announced the possibility of imposing high tariffs (up to 500%) on imports into the U.S. from countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas—this initiative aims to deprive Moscow of export revenues funding the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, risks of disruptions in the Middle East have increased: in January, reports emerged that the U.S. is contemplating a military strike against Iran over Tehran's nuclear program. Amid these tensions, investors are pricing in a higher risk premium for oil. On the other hand, sporadic signals of a possible ceasefire in Eastern Europe (still without tangible results) create expectations that, sooner or later, sanctions against Russian exports may be eased, and the full volume of Russian oil could return to the market—this factor puts downward pressure on "bear" sentiment. For now, the combined impact of all factors maintains a moderate surplus of supply over demand, keeping the oil market slightly overstocked.
As a result, oil prices remain in a relatively narrow range, lacking sustained momentum for further growth or a sharp decline. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming events—from OPEC+ decisions (with the next ministers' meeting scheduled for February 1, where the extension of current production policy is anticipated) to geopolitical developments—which could alter the risk balance for oil prices.
Gas Market: Europe Confidently Navigates Winter, Prices Remain Low
On the gas market, the focus is on the successful navigation of winter by European countries. So far, the season is favoring Europe: January has been relatively mild, thus gas withdrawal from storage is proceeding at moderate rates. By early February, underground gas storage (UGS) in the EU is filled to about 60%, significantly above the average for this time of year and providing a solid safety margin in the supply system.
This situation, along with stable liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and pipeline gas from alternative sources, keeps prices on the European market at a low level. The benchmark TTF index fluctuates in a range of around €25–30 per MWh—several times lower than the peak values during the two-year energy crisis. For industry and consumers, these price levels have been a significant relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and heating bills for households have noticeably declined compared to last winter.
The market is prepared for possible weather surprises: short-term cold spells may temporarily increase demand and prices, but as of now, systemic risks of fuel shortages are not apparent. Moreover, the European strategy of diversifying gas sources and energy-saving measures has proven effective, allowing for a flexible response to challenges. On a global scale, according to IEA forecasts, world demand for natural gas in 2026 could reach a new record, primarily driven by increasing demand in Asia. Nevertheless, LNG and pipeline gas supply is currently sufficient to meet needs, and the European market is entering the final phase of winter without major upheavals.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure, Middle Eastern Tensions, and Changes in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on energy markets. At the beginning of 2026, the United States ramped up efforts to limit Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump is promoting a bill through Congress that proposes imposing exceptionally high tariffs—up to 500%—on imports into the U.S. from nations that "knowingly trade" with Russia in oil and gas. The aim of the U.S. is to reduce Moscow's revenues from energy resource exports, which Washington believes fund the military conflict in Ukraine. These measures are causing tension in foreign trade: China has sharply protested against outside pressure on its energy policy, asserting that its trade with Russia is legitimate and should not be politicized. India, for its part, is seeking to maneuver—New Delhi indeed reduced the share of Russian oil in its imports over the past year while simultaneously negotiating with Washington to ease American tariffs on Indian goods.
Another high-profile event at the start of the year is the unexpected changes in Venezuela that could affect the balance of power in the oil market. In early January, the U.S. conducted a military operation that resulted in Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro being ousted and taken into custody. President Trump stated Washington's willingness to support a transitional government in the country until a new government is formed. This unprecedented move has resonated on the international stage: several countries (for example, China) condemned the violation of Venezuela's sovereignty and principles of international law. However, for the oil and gas industry, the primary question is whether regime change will lead to the return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but due to sanctions and economic crisis, its production has plummeted over the last decade. Experts note that even with political changes, an immediate increase in exports will not occur: the country's oil infrastructure requires significant investment and modernization. Nevertheless, the anticipated gradual lifting of sanctions over time could increase the supply of heavy Venezuelan oil in the global market, which would influence the balance of power within OPEC+.
The situation in the Middle East has also intensified. In January, the U.S. imposed new sanctions against Iran, accusing Tehran of advancing its missile-nuclear program and destabilizing the region. Reports have emerged that Washington is considering a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if diplomatic pressure does not yield results. Iran has categorically rejected demands to curb its defensive capabilities, stating it will not tolerate external interference. The escalation of rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran has heightened nervousness in the oil market: traders fear supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf in the event of military conflict. Although a direct confrontation has been avoided for now, the very threat of destabilization in this key oil-producing region contributes to price increases and remains one of the main sources of uncertainty for energy market participants.
Asia: Balancing Between Imports and Domestic Production
Asian countries—the key drivers of energy demand growth—are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet their swiftly expanding economic needs. The policies and energy strategy choices of the largest Asian consumers—China and India—have a significant impact on the global market:
- India: New Delhi is striving to reduce its reliance on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressures. Following the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, India significantly increased its purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, under the threat of Western sanctions, slightly reduced Russia’s share in its oil imports. Simultaneously, the country is betting on developing its domestic resources: a large-scale program to develop deep-water oil and gas fields has been launched to increase its production to meet the surging domestic demand. Additionally, India is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacities (solar and wind power) and infrastructure for LNG imports, seeking to diversify its energy balance. Nonetheless, oil and gas remain the backbone of its energy supply, essential for industry and transportation, so Indian leadership must carefully balance between the advantages of importing cheap fuel and the risks of sanctions.
- China: The world's second-largest economy continues its course towards energy self-sufficiency, combining the maximum increase in production of traditional resources with record investments in clean energy. Preliminary estimates indicate that in 2025, China raised its domestic production of oil and coal to historical highs to reduce its reliance on imports. Simultaneously, the share of coal in electricity generation in China has dropped to a multi-year low (~55%) as the country has put into operation record volumes of new solar, wind, and hydropower capacities. Analysts estimate that in 2025, China commissioned more solar and wind power plants than the rest of the world combined, which has helped maintain a lid on fossil fuel consumption. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, China's appetite for energy resources remains vast: oil imports (including from Russia) continue to play a significant role in meeting demand, especially in transportation and petrochemicals. Beijing is also actively entering into long-term contracts for LNG supply and increasing its nuclear energy generation. It is expected that in the new 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China will set even more ambitious goals for developing non-carbon energy while also ensuring a sufficient reserve of traditional capacities—authorities intend to avoid energy shortages, considering the experience of rolling blackouts in the past decade.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025, confirming the irreversibility of this trend. Many countries recorded historic levels of electricity generated from renewable sources. According to international analytical centers, total generation from wind and solar energy worldwide exceeded electricity production at all coal-fired power plants for the first time in 2025. This historic milestone was made possible by a sharp increase in new capacities: in 2025, global electricity generation from solar power plants grew by approximately 30% compared to the previous year, while wind power increased by 7%. This was sufficient to cover the primary increase in global electricity demand and allowed for reduced fossil fuel use in several regions.
However, the rapid growth of green energy is accompanied by reliability challenges for electricity supply. When demand growth outstrips the introduction of renewable capacities or weather conditions are unfavorable (calm, drought, extreme cold), power systems must compensate for the shortfall with traditional generation. For example, in 2025, in the U.S., as the economy revived, electricity generation at coal-fired power plants rose because existing renewable energy sources were insufficient to meet additional demand. Similarly, in Europe, due to weak winds and low water levels in hydrological resources during summer and autumn, natural gas and coal consumption had to increase partially to meet energy needs.
These examples demonstrate that coal, gas, and nuclear power plants currently play a crucial role as an important safety net, compensating for the variability of solar and wind generation. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other advanced technologies to smooth production fluctuations. However, in the coming years, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: the rapid growth of renewable energy is occurring alongside a significant share of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, which ensure stability in energy systems and cover base loads.
Coal: Strong Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The global coal market illustrates how inertia can characterize global energy consumption. Despite efforts to decarbonize, coal use on the planet remains at historically high levels. Preliminary data indicates that in 2025, global demand for coal increased by approximately 0.5%, reaching around 8.85 billion tons—this is a historical maximum. The primary growth has been concentrated in Asian economies. In China, which consumes more than half of all coal in the world, the relative role of coal in electricity generation, though diminished to its lowest levels in decades, remains colossal in absolute terms. Moreover, fearing energy shortages, Beijing approved the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2025 to prevent disruptions in energy supply. India and Southeast Asian countries also continue to actively burn coal to meet the growing demand for electricity as alternative sources lag in development.
Prices for energy coal stabilized in 2025 after sharp fluctuations in previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (for example, Australian Newcastle coal), prices remained significantly below the peak of 2022, though higher than pre-crisis levels. This motivates mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of this decade and then begin a gradual decline as climate policies strengthen and numerous new renewable capacities come online. However, in the short term, coal still remains a vital part of the energy balance for many countries. It provides base generation and heat for industries; therefore, until effective substitutes emerge, demand for coal will remain resilient. Thus, the struggle between ecological goals and economic realities continues to define the fate of the coal industry: the downward trend is evident, but the "swan song" for coal has yet to arrive.
Russian Oil Products Market: Fuel Price Stabilization Through Government Efforts
By early 2026, relative stabilization has emerged in the domestic fuel market in Russia, achieved through unprecedented government intervention. In August-September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the country surged to record levels, prompting the government to intervene swiftly. Strict temporary export restrictions on oil products were implemented, control over domestic fuel distribution was intensified, and financial support measures for refining companies were expanded. These actions yielded tangible results by early 2026. Wholesale prices receded from their peaks, and retail prices at gas stations increased only moderately—by about 5-6% for the entire year 2025, in line with inflation. A physical shortage of gasoline and diesel has been avoided: gas stations across the country, including in remote regions, are sufficiently stocked with fuel even during seasonal consumption spikes.
Russian authorities declare an intention to continue controlling the situation. The fuel export restrictions remain in place as of early 2026 (with gasoline restrictions extended at least until the end of February), and any signs of a new imbalance could lead to tightening measures again. The government is also prepared to resort to commodity interventions from state fuel reserves if required to mitigate price fluctuations. For participants in the energy market, such policies provide predictability in domestic prices for oil products despite external shocks—sanctions and volatility in global prices. Oil companies have had to accept partial export restrictions, but overall, the stabilization of the domestic fuel market boosts confidence that consumer and economic interests will be reliably protected from price shocks.
