Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Sunday, February 1, 2026 | OPEC+ and Russia-Ukraine-USA Negotiations

Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, February 1, 2026: Russia–Ukraine–USA Negotiations, OPEC+ Meeting, and the Start of the Month with PMI, Alongside Reports from Companies in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

The first Sunday of February 2026 sets the tone for the new week with a mix of geopolitical and commodity-driven factors. On the global stage, negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine are taking place in Abu Dhabi with mediation from the USA—a potential breakthrough on this front could influence investor sentiment worldwide. Meanwhile, OPEC+ countries are convening to determine oil policy amid oil prices reaching multi-month highs. The macroeconomic agenda appears relatively calm today with few data releases, but as the new week begins, markets will be looking forward to important indicators such as the PMI manufacturing indices from China and ISM from the USA. Moreover, the earnings season continues as investors anticipate results from major corporations (not only in the USA—Disney but also globally) and assess their impact on stock markets. For the Russian market, key benchmarks remain external factors—oil price dynamics following the OPEC+ decision, the exchange rate of the ruble, and the geopolitical situation, as there are minimal significant domestic events today. Investors from the CIS should consider this global picture while preparing for Monday's market opening.

Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)

1. Throughout the day – Abu Dhabi, UAE: trilateral meeting of representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the USA on the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict (continuation of negotiations, discussion of ceasefire terms and territorial issues).
2. Throughout the day – Vienna, Austria: meeting of OPEC and allied ministers under the OPEC+ agreement (the monitoring committee discusses compliance with production quotas and prospects for oil policy in the coming months).
3. 04:00 (Monday) – China: PMI manufacturing index for January. An expected approximately neutral level of 50 will indicate sector stabilization following fluctuations in previous months.
4. 18:00 (Monday) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI index for January. This will be the first important indicator of economic activity in the USA for 2026, reflecting the state of industry and new orders in the manufacturing sector.

Geopolitics: Negotiations on Ukraine in Abu Dhabi

• Continuation of Peace Dialogues. In Abu Dhabi, the second round of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the USA regarding conflict resolution is underway. The first round took place here on January 23-24 and laid the groundwork for further discussions. The central theme of the meeting is territorial disputes: the parties are trying to find a compromise over control of contentious regions. Previous contacts have been assessed by participants as constructive: according to media reports, the delegations managed to discuss parameters for a potential ceasefire and monitoring mechanisms, instilling cautious optimism.
• Positions of the Parties and Prospects. The negotiations are mediated by the USA; however, the current meeting likely consists primarily of bilateral discussions between representatives of Moscow and Kyiv. Kyiv continues to publicly exclude territorial concessions: President Volodymyr Zelensky stated he is not prepared to compromise that would violate Ukraine's territorial integrity. Moscow, in turn, insists on its "red lines," including the status of Donbas and Crimea as part of Russia. Nonetheless, the very act of making territorial issues central indicates that several other topics (such as ceasefire arrangements, humanitarian issues, and the situation around the ZNPP) have either been discussed or postponed. American mediators express hope that the current round could bring the parties closer to preliminary agreements. According to sources, progress has been made on the details of a potential agreement, with a chance to develop some sort of framework document that the USA would be willing to support separately with each party.
• Markets are Watching Outcomes. Investors perceive these negotiations through the lens of global risk and uncertainty premiums. Any signs of progress—such as an agreement on a long-term ceasefire or a roadmap to a peace agreement—could reduce geopolitical tension. This, in turn, may boost risk appetite in global equity markets: stocks of European companies and currencies of emerging markets (including the ruble) could gain support from diminished war premiums, while commodity prices (oil, gas, wheat), where military risk has been partially priced in, could correct downward. Conversely, if negotiations stall or are disrupted, markets may respond with increased demand for safe assets—gold, the US dollar, government bonds—and heightened volatility at the week's opening, particularly in sectors sensitive to news from the front (oil, defense sector, European markets).

OPEC+: Meeting on Oil Policy

• Expectations for Quota Maintenance. OPEC+ countries are holding a scheduled meeting during which current oil production restrictions are expected to be prolonged unchanged at least into the first quarter of 2026. Previously, the alliance agreed to halt production increases in February and March, and five OPEC+ delegates told Reuters that the current meeting will likely not make adjustments to this policy. Key participants—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and others—have signaled their readiness to adhere to previously agreed production levels, seeking to maintain market balance and keep oil prices at a comfortable level.
• Oil Prices and Context. Oil quotes approached the meeting at the highest levels since late summer: Brent is trading in the range of approximately $70–75 per barrel following a January rise. The price surge has been supported by a combination of factors: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (heightened US sanctions pressure on Iran and threats of military action) provided the market with an additional risk premium, and unplanned supply disruptions (for instance, the recent halts at the major Tengiz field in Kazakhstan) limited availability. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ is unlikely to want to increase production—rather, it will maintain a wait-and-see position to avoid market oversupply during the typically weaker demand season.
• Market Reaction to Oil. The baseline scenario of “no changes” is already largely priced in and will be perceived as neutral by the market: oil will likely maintain its current range of fluctuations, and stocks of oil and gas companies on global exchanges (and the MOEX index, where the resource sector has a substantial share) will show stable dynamics. However, it is important for investors to monitor statements following the meeting. Any hints at future steps—such as discussions about conditions for a potential production increase in the second quarter or, conversely, a willingness to extend restrictions until mid-year—could amplify price fluctuations. If any disagreements among participants or unexpected proposals (such as unplanned cuts or increases in production) emerge, they could add volatility to the oil market: additional restrictions could push prices up, while signals of potential increased supply could cause short-term price declines.

Industrial Sector: PMI for China and ISM for the USA

• China: Signs of Stabilization. January data on business activity in China's manufacturing sector sets the tone for the entire Asian region. The official PMI index for China is expected to hover around the key mark of 50 points, separating growth from contraction. At the end of 2025, the Chinese economy faced a slowdown, but measures for stimulus and stabilization implemented by Beijing (including easing credit policies and support for real estate) might have prevented the manufacturing sector from further decline. A PMI reading above expectations rising above 50 would indicate an unexpected increase in activity—such a signal would bolster commodity markets (from copper to oil) and provide momentum to stocks of Asian companies focused on domestic demand in China. In contrast, a weak PMI (below expectations or in the contraction zone) could amplify concerns regarding the recovery of the Chinese economy, negatively impacting currencies and markets of resource-exporting countries, as well as the overall global risk appetite.
• USA: First Look at the 2026 Economy. The ISM Manufacturing Activity Index for the USA in January will be released on Monday and will serve as one of the first macro signals of the year for the American market. At the end of 2025, the US manufacturing sector was stagnating, and consensus expects ISM to be around 48–50 points (on the edge of the contraction zone). Investors will be closely analyzing the index components—new orders, employment, price pressures. An improvement in ISM (growth approaching 50 or above) will signal that the industry has started recovering from last year's decline: this would support stocks of industrial companies, engineering, and the resource sector, and may lead to rising bond yields due to revised expectations for the Fed's interest rates. Conversely, if the index remains significantly below 50 or declines, markets might interpret this as a signal of ongoing economic weakness—this outcome could, on the contrary, intensify discussions about easing monetary policy by the Fed and result in localized declines in yields, while also raising concerns over corporate profitability among industrial giants.
• Importance for Markets. The results of PMI from China and ISM from the USA collectively will define the direction of global markets at the start of February. Positive surprises in manufacturing indexes (rising activity, reduction in inventory levels, improvement in new orders) will strengthen investor confidence that the global economy is withstanding high interest levels and maintaining growth—this would be a favorable factor for stock markets, particularly in cyclical sectors (engineering, metallurgy, chemistry). At the same time, interest in safe assets will decline as the risk of recession recedes. However, if weak data emerges from both China and the USA, an opposite reaction could ensue: discussions about the risk of a global industrial downturn will intensify, leading to a more cautious strategy in the markets—possible rotation from risky assets into bonds and partial profit-taking in stocks, particularly in segments dependent on investment demand (e.g., equipment manufacturers, automotive sector). Thus, monitoring the morning PMI from Asia and the subsequent ISM index during the day will be a critical task for investors planning their actions at the beginning of the week.

Earnings Reports: Before Opening (BMO, USA)

• Walt Disney Co. (DIS). The media giant and component of the Dow Jones is set to present its financial results for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year (October–December 2025) before trading begins in the USA. Focus will be on key segment performance during the festive period. Investors will evaluate revenue from the parks and resorts (especially after the recovery of tourism and attendance), the dynamics of subscriber growth for the Disney+ streaming service along with associated losses/profits, and box office collections from recent film releases. Equally significant will be the management's statement: the market awaits comments from CEO Bob Iger regarding further business restructuring, potential sales of non-core assets (such as TV networks), and plans for expense reductions. Strong results (exceeding profit forecasts and subscriber growth) could elevate Disney's stock and instill optimism across the entertainment and communications sector, whereas disappointment in numbers or a cautious outlook could lead to declines in share prices, indicating ongoing post-pandemic challenges for the industry.
• Other Releases Before Opening. Among other major reports early in the morning are Tyson Foods (TSN) and IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX). Tyson, a global leader in the agribusiness sector and a meat supplier, is reporting amid volatile feed prices and changing consumer preferences. Investors will be looking at Tyson's margins: whether the company has managed to pass on increased costs to consumers and maintain profitability, as well as how sales volumes of chicken, beef, and pork have changed in light of price dynamics. This data will provide benchmarks on inflation in the food sector and the state of consumer demand for basic food products. Meanwhile, IDEXX Laboratories—a leading developer of veterinary diagnostic solutions—will present results relevant in terms of pet health spending. Growth in IDEXX's revenue could indicate robust demand for pet services even amid overall economic uncertainty. Overall, the morning reports from the USA will set the tone: strong results from Tyson, IDEXX, and other S&P 500 companies will bolster confidence in the sustainability of corporate profits, while weakness or deteriorating forecasts may prompt investors to start the week more cautiously.

Earnings Reports: After Closing (AMC, USA)

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The well-known big data and analytics platform company will report after the main trading session in the USA. Palantir falls within the tech sector focused on AI and security solutions, and its Q4 2025 results will capture attention as indicators of demand for software among government and commercial clients. Focus will be on revenue growth within government contracts (traditionally Palantir's strong suit, especially amidst geopolitical instability) and within the commercial sector (how actively private businesses are adopting their data analysis platforms). Additionally, investors expect information regarding the initial results of the company’s AI initiatives announced previously, and profitability comments: Palantir last year achieved its first steady net profit, and it is crucial whether it maintained positive profitability. Any signs of accelerated business growth or optimistic forecasts for 2026 (such as through new defense contracts or successes from the AIP—Artificial Intelligence Platform) would support further stock price increases, while slowing dynamics or a lack of progress in monetizing AI solutions could temper investor enthusiasm for this popular stock.
• Other Companies Reporting After Closing. In addition to Palantir, several well-known issuers will release reports on Monday evening. Among them is chip manufacturer NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), whose Q4 results will indicate the state of affairs in the semiconductor industry, especially within automotive electronics and IoT (it’s vital to assess if demand from the automotive sector has remained intact and if supply chains continue to recover). Several medium-cap technology and biotech companies will also report, while in Asia, results from several Japanese corporations for Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year (for example, TDK has already announced its report on this day) will be unveiled. While the influence of these individual releases on the broader market is limited, the collective picture is significant. For instance, if the semiconductor sector (as illustrated by NXP) shows solid growth and forecasts, this will set a positive tone ahead of larger reports due later in the week (with giants like Alphabet (Google), Meta, and Amazon reporting in the following days). Conversely, unexpectedly weak results from individual companies Monday evening may heighten nerves and volatility in the tech sector on Tuesday. Investors should pay attention to sectoral signals: trends identified in these reports can help adjust profit expectations for companies in the S&P 500 moving forward.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): Sundays are traditionally a quiet day for European markets, with no new reports from major companies today. The main season for annual reports in Europe will commence later in February, so investor attention in the Eurozone at the start of the week shifts toward external factors and macro statistics. Focal points include the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting (important for energy stocks and the economies of Norway and the UK), news from Abu Dhabi regarding Ukraine (any reduction in geopolitical tension is positive for European assets), and data from China and the USA. Regional economic indicators will be released in the coming days: a preliminary inflation report for the Eurozone for January is expected on Tuesday, with consensus predicting a further slowdown in price growth (annual CPI may drop closer to 2.5%, approaching the ECB’s target). On the currency market, the euro is hovering around $1.10, and bond yields in EU countries have stabilized—investors are factoring in a pause in rate hikes by the European Central Bank amid signs of easing inflationary pressure. The lack of internal corporate drivers today means that European stock indices will likely follow the global trend set by weekend news and American index futures’ dynamics, with possible corrections influenced by local news (for example, political events in certain EU countries or fluctuations in natural gas prices).
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese stock market approaches the start of the week without significant fresh corporate reports on Sunday—the majority of leading companies in the country had already released results for the first half of the year prior, with reporting for Q3 (October–December) scheduled for several firms in the first half of February (with some tech corporations set to report on February 5-10). The macroeconomic backdrop in Japan remains relatively stable: inflation in Tokyo stands at roughly 2.4% year-on-year, which, while exceeding the targeted 2% mark, allows the Bank of Japan to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. Interest rates in Japan remain near zero, and the central bank continues to control bond yields (YCC), keeping the yen in a weakened state—its exchange rate fluctuates around ¥158 per US dollar. A weak yen is traditionally favorable for export-oriented companies, which is one factor keeping the Nikkei 225 high over recent months. In the absence of domestic news today, the Japanese index will likely look to external cues: improving sentiment on Wall Street on Friday and positive signals from China (for example, if PMI unexpectedly shows growth) could push the Nikkei higher at the opening. However, the Nikkei's rise may face limits if geopolitical uncertainty increases or if investors shift toward safe assets: in such scenarios, the yen typically strengthens as a “safe haven,” which could temporarily weaken the competitive position of Japanese exporters and lead to corrections in their stocks.
• MOEX (Russia): The Russian MOEX index concluded January around the 3200–3250 point mark, showing moderate growth for the month amid favorable commodity price conditions and relative calm on the foreign policy front. On February 1, no major corporate events are scheduled within the Russian market: the season for the publication of annual financial reports for 2025 will begin later, closer to the end of February and March. Today, investors on MOEX will primarily draw from external signals. The key external factor is the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and the dynamics of oil prices: stability or growth in Brent prices following the meeting will support stocks of oil and gas companies (Lukoil, Rosneft) and the federal budget's fill rate, whereas any disappointment for the oil market will quickly reflect on moods at MOEX. The Russian currency market remains relatively calm: the ruble is trading around 90 per dollar, supported by high energy prices and a lack of new sanctions shocks. The end of the month tax period has cleared some short-term support, but overall, the balance of forces on the FX market has shifted towards stabilizing the exchange rate—as exporters sell their revenue against a backdrop of high oil prices, counteracting capital outflows. In a relatively neutral global environment, Russian indices will likely move in line with overall global trends today. Individual corporate stories (for example, potential operational reports from specific companies or management statements) may trigger localized fluctuations, but will not set widespread index dynamics. The main task for domestic investors is to assess external factors (OPEC+, geopolitics, sentiment in the USA and China) and be prepared for their influence on trading at the beginning of the week.

Day's Summary: What to Watch for Investors

• OPEC+ Decisions and Oil. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will be one of the main benchmarks for the start of the week. The baseline scenario of maintaining current production levels will be perceived calmly by the market: oil prices are likely to remain within the previous corridor (around $70+ per barrel), while stocks of oil and gas companies will continue trading without sharp deviations. However, it is crucial for investors to monitor rhetoric and comments following the meeting. If leading exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, etc.) unanimously reaffirm their commitment to limited production, it will strengthen confidence in the stability of commodity markets. Any hints at future changes—such as potential increases in quotas in the second quarter or a call for an extraordinary OPEC+ meeting should market conditions change—could elevate volatility. Particular attention should be paid to the reactions of the currencies of commodity countries: strengthening oil prices will support the ruble, Canadian dollar, and Norwegian krone, while an unexpected “dovish” signal (for instance, discussions on increasing supply) could lead to their weakening.
• Geopolitics and Risk Appetite. The trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi could significantly influence global risk appetite. Investors need to stay tuned for news from the UAE: even a non-working day may yield information prompts that set market movement ahead of Monday's open. A positive outcome (for example, an announcement of ceasefire agreements or the scheduling of the next round with a specific agenda) would reduce uncertainty and likely support risk assets: European and emerging market equities could receive upward momentum, with prices for safe assets (gold, government bonds) decreasing. Conversely, if negotiations conclude inconclusively or new tensions arise, investors' readiness to take risks may decline: expect increased demand for “safe havens” such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, alongside potential corrections in European equity markets. Sectors related to military spending and commodity supplies (defense, oil and gas, grain markets) will be particularly sensitive: a negative outcome from negotiations will likely support prices (implying prolonged conflict), while a positive one might actually lead to price drops (due to reduced risk premium).
• Corporate Reports and Market Sentiment. The ongoing earnings season will shape investor sentiment in the coming week. Already on Monday, both before the open and after close, there will be results from several well-known issuers—how the market reacts will indicate sentiments. Investors should pay attention to not only figures of profit and revenue but also management’s forecasts for 2026. For example, better-than-expected Disney results or an optimistic Palantir outlook on demand for their technologies could enhance the climate in the respective sectors (media, technology) and buoy indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Conversely, if companies indicate slowing growth, margin compression due to costs, or demand uncertainty, this could trigger profit-taking following recent rallies. Given that reports from mega caps (such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) and several major European banks and industrial leaders will come mid-week, Monday will only be the first signal. It’s essential for investors to capture these signals and adjust exposure to sectors demonstrating either unexpected strength or weakness.
• Macro Statistics for the Start of the Month. The first week of February is rich with important macroeconomic data: in addition to today's PMIs and ISM, data on inflation in several European countries and the Eurozone overall is expected on Tuesday, with the key US labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls for January) due on Friday. These indicators will help clarify the trajectory of the global economy: is inflation continuing to slow towards central bank targets while maintaining growth? Investors should pay close attention to whether recent figures confirm the scenario of a “soft landing” (moderate cooling without recession). If they do—low inflation aligns with acceptable growth and employment rates—it creates a favorable backdrop for stocks, as the likelihood of new tightening in monetary policy decreases and hopes for gradual rate cuts towards the end of the year strengthen. However, if data surprises negatively (for example, if price growth accelerates again or employment sharply falls), markets may react with heightened volatility, prompting investors to regroup assets, retreating into quality bonds and reducing allocation to the riskiest positions. The report on US employment carries particular significance: strong payrolls amid weak industrial performance may elicit mixed reactions (the Fed keeps rates longer, but consumer demand remains robust), while weak employment figures would bolster expectations for policy easing while intensifying fears about GDP prospects.
• Strategy for CIS Investors. This calm Sunday is a suitable moment to reassess portfolios ahead of a series of upcoming events. Investors from CIS countries should evenly distribute key assets and check their balance between risky and safe instruments. The beginning of the new month is when many global funds redistribute capital, which can lead local markets (including MOEX) to experience additional inflows or outflows. Given the heightened uncertainty (geopolitics, macro statistics, corporate reports), it’s prudent to establish clear stop-loss and take-profit levels for the most volatile positions. A well-thought-out action plan in anticipation of sudden news—whether it be breakthroughs in negotiations over Ukraine, introduction of new sanctions, unexpected inflation spikes, or other force majeure events—will help preserve capital and leverage emerging opportunities. Approaching the opening of Monday’s markets, an investor equipped with a plan and understanding of the global picture will be better positioned to navigate through the flow of information and make informed decisions.