Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for November 15, 2025: China's Economic Slowdown, Results from JBS and Vallourec, Global Macroeconomic Trends, and Factors for Investors
Saturday brings relative calm to global markets: there are no significant macroeconomic releases scheduled for November 15, allowing investors a pause to reflect on the week's events. Attention is focused on signals of an economic slowdown in China following a series of statistical releases, as well as the concluding notes of the corporate earnings season. On the corporate front, several international companies released their results towards the end of the week, including the global meat processor JBS and the French pipe manufacturer Vallourec. In the absence of new data, it is important for investors to trace the interconnections—such as how a slowdown in China will affect commodity markets and exporters, and what individual company reports indicate about the state of their respective industries. The business atmosphere of the day is calm, prompting market participants to focus on global trends and prepare for the upcoming events of next week.
Macroeconomic Background
- U.S.: The American economic calendar for Saturday has no significant releases. U.S. markets are digesting already published data and news: due to an ongoing federal government shutdown, the release of key statistics (including CPI inflation and retail data) is delayed, depriving investors of benchmarks. After the main wave of earnings reports, focus has shifted to external factors. The previous session on Friday ended with a sharp decline in stock indices (S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.7–2.3%—the largest daily drop in over a month), reflecting investor caution ahead of the weekend. In the absence of new macrodata, market participants are relying on corporate forecasts and global signals, while also monitoring the budget situation in Washington.
- Europe: European markets also lack fresh statistics on November 15. EU countries are not releasing macroeconomic indicators on this day, thus the news background is predominantly formed by external events. Investors in the Eurozone are assessing the data released during the week and are paying attention to the slowdown in China, as waning demand in Asia could impact European exporters (especially automobile and luxury goods manufacturers). In the upcoming week, Europe is set to release new data on inflation and business activity, hence the current weekend is being used for position reassessment. Overall sentiment in European exchanges is neutral: without fresh drivers, markets are following Wall Street dynamics and commodity prices.
- Asia: In the Asian region, Saturday passes without new reports—major economies in the region are not publishing indicators on November 15. However, sentiment is already being influenced by Chinese statistics released the day before (see section below): a slowdown in industrial production and retail sales in China intensifies concerns about demand in the region. Japan is preparing to release trade balance data for October at the beginning of the coming week, with a slight reduction in the deficit expected due to stabilizing exports. The attention of Asian investors is gradually shifting to upcoming indicators (including Japan's GDP for Q3) and potential stimuli from Chinese authorities. Asian markets maintain a wait-and-see position: without new data, they rely on the information already available and currency dynamics, especially the yen and yuan exchange rates.
- Russia: The Russian macroeconomic calendar for November 15 is empty—neither Rosstat nor the Central Bank of Russia planned any publications for this day. The day before, on November 14, important inflation figures were released: consumer price growth in October was only +0.5% month-over-month, while annual inflation slowed to approximately 7.7% (from approximately 8.0% the previous month), significantly below expectations. This inflation slowdown, following the recent unscheduled rate cut by the Central Bank of Russia to 16.5% per annum, confirms a reduction in price pressure in the economy. In the absence of new data over the weekend, Russian investors are focusing on the external background—the dynamics of oil and metal prices, the ruble exchange rate, and the overall situation in global markets. The macroeconomic pause allows an assessment of the effect of past regulatory measures and preparation for statistics that will be released next week.
China's Economic Slowdown
- Industrial production in China grew by only +4.9% year-on-year in October, significantly down from +6.5% in September. This is the weakest growth rate in approximately 14 months; the weakness in external demand and the consequences of trade tensions with the U.S. were factors. Actual figures came in worse than the consensus forecast (+5.5%)—the unexpected deterioration in manufacturing sector dynamics has intensified concerns about the sustainability of China's economic recovery in the final quarter of the year.
- Retail sales in China increased by +2.9% year-on-year in October versus +3.0% the previous month. Despite the occurrence of a large-scale discount festival (Singles' Day 11.11), domestic consumer demand remains sluggish. The slowdown in retail growth indicates cautious behavior among households: even substantial discounts and incentivizing measures have not yet led to accelerated consumption. Weak domestic demand, alongside declining exports, hampers economic growth in China and calls for new support measures.
- The simultaneous weakening of the two key engines of China's economy—industry and consumption—underlines a dual challenge for Beijing. With exports suffering from external barriers and domestic expenditures growing slowly, authorities may choose to enhance stimuli (monetary or fiscal) and implement structural reforms. For global markets, such news from China is critically important: the slowdown in China is already reflected in commodity prices (metals, oil) and is impacting companies that focus on the Chinese market (from German automotive companies to Asian electronics manufacturers). Investors worldwide should closely monitor China's further steps, as the dynamics of the world’s second-largest economy largely set the tone for global risk appetite.
Corporate Reports
- JBS N.V. – the world’s largest meat processing company (Brazil) reported for Q3. JBS's global revenue increased by +13% year-on-year to $22.6 billion, however, net profit declined to $581 million (down from $693 million a year earlier). Business margin suffered mainly due to conditions in the U.S.: JBS's American division faced negative margins in the beef segment amid historically low livestock numbers and high prices for live cattle, sharply raising processing costs. The company notes that the current decline in the cattle raising cycle in the U.S. will continue to pressure profits in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, JBS's Brazilian business demonstrates resilience: sales in Brazil substantially increased due to exports (the country remains the largest exporter of beef) and rising meat prices in the domestic market. Nevertheless, even in its home country, the company faced temporary difficulties—as a result of an avian flu case identified last spring, several countries imposed bans on importing poultry products, forcing JBS to redirect supplies and cut prices on certain categories. Investors view JBS's report as an indicator of the state of the agro-industrial sector: on one hand, global demand for proteins remains high (revenue growth), on the other hand, costs and raw material inflation in certain regions constrain profitability. Attention will be focused on JBS’s management commentary regarding the prospects for margin recovery in North America and whether additional efficiency-boosting measures will be considered against the backdrop of costly raw materials.
- Vallourec S.A. – the French manufacturer of steel pipes for the oil and gas and industrial sectors reported results that met expectations. The EBITDA for Q3 increased by +12.3% year-on-year to €210 million, landing exactly in the middle of the previously announced forecast range (€195–225 million). The improvement in financial results was driven by growth in volumes and average selling prices of pipe products, as well as the implementation of cost-saving programs. Notably, profitability in Vallourec's iron ore extraction segment and timber business improved thanks to the expansion of its own mining site—this also contributed to EBITDA. The company presented its first forecast for the entire year of 2025: expected EBITDA is in the range of €799–829 million, which is only slightly lower than last year’s level (€832 million). Vallourec’s management anticipates that fourth-quarter profits will be comparable to those in the third quarter, continuing a steady trajectory. An important event for Vallourec was a recent contract with Petrobras: the French company won a tender for the supply of pipes for marine projects of the Brazilian state-owned oil company until 2029, valued up to $1 billion. According to management, the new contract considerably increases Vallourec's share of orders from Petrobras (compared to the previous 2022 contract) and will ensure significant revenue inflows in the coming years. Vallourec's financial position has significantly strengthened: net debt decreased to €140 million, indicating the successful implementation of its business recovery strategy. Vallourec’s financial results are perceived positively: they reflect high demand from oil and gas companies amid increased drilling projects and demonstrate the effectiveness of measures taken to improve profitability.
Global Stock Indices
- U.S. (S&P 500): By this point, nearly all companies in the S&P 500 index have already published their quarterly results, thus there are no new corporate drivers on November 15. The American market ended the week on a down note: indices on Wall Street fell significantly on Friday, as investors locked in profits after a series of reports and against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty. The absence of fresh statistics (due to the shutdown of government agencies) amplifies the role of external factors. U.S. market participants are assessing the outcomes of the earnings season: the technology sector overall exceeded expectations (Cisco's robust report being a prime example, sending its shares soaring, prompting upward revisions to yearly forecasts), whereas consumer and media giants reported more restrained results (Walt Disney disappointed with a revenue decline, reflecting challenges in streaming and cinema). On Saturday, American exchanges are closed, with investor focus on external signals; any unexpected events in the world over the weekend could set the tone for Monday's trading opening.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): The leading European index also lacks new reports from “blue-chip” companies on this day—the quarterly earnings season in Europe is coming to a close. European exchanges will look to global news, as the internal European agenda on November 15 is empty. The slowdown in China's economy could reflect on sentiment in Europe: the industrial sector in Germany and luxury goods exporters in France are particularly sensitive to this. Inflation in the Eurozone, meanwhile, continues to decline gradually, and investors hope that the European Central Bank will refrain from further rate hikes. In the absence of statistics, the current informational background for the Euro Stoxx 50 is formed by American and Asian events: volatility in oil prices, fluctuations in the euro exchange rate, as well as news from the U.S. bond market may lead to movements in European indices at the week's opening.
- Japan (Nikkei 225): The Japanese stock index also receives no fresh corporate impulses over the weekend: the majority of companies have already reported for April–September 2025. Attention is now shifting to macroeconomic indicators: investors are awaiting Japan's GDP assessment for Q3 (the release is expected in the coming days) and data on foreign trade. Preliminary signals indicate some improvement in Japan's exports, which could reduce the trade deficit (trade balance statistics will be released at the beginning of the week). However, the weak performance of China raises concerns in Tokyo as China is Japan's key trading partner. Without fresh news on Saturday, the Nikkei 225 will follow global trends: the USD/JPY exchange rate, the dynamics of U.S. stock markets on Friday, and commodity prices will serve as benchmarks for Japanese investors ahead of a new week.
Russian Market
At the Moscow Exchange, the height of the quarterly earnings season for Russian companies continues in mid-November, although no major publications are scheduled for the date of November 15 (Saturday). Investors are assessing results released throughout the week and preparing for a number of important releases expected by the end of the month. Many market heavyweights have already disclosed their financial metrics for the first nine months of 2025: banks reported on interest dynamics and reserves, oil and gas companies—on profits amid pricing conditions, and metallurgists—on the impact of world metal prices. The picture is mixed, but overall corporate results reflect the adaptation of businesses to new conditions. Simultaneously, the internal macro background has improved: a slowdown in inflation (~7.7% y/y in October) and relative stabilization of the ruble create more confident future expectations. After an unexpected easing of monetary policy (the Central Bank of Russia lowered the key rate to 16.5% per annum), companies are facing reduced borrowing costs, which should support economic activity. Nevertheless, the dynamics of the Russian market remain influenced by external factors. Oil and gas prices are still the key driver for the MOEX index; current energy prices are ensuring high profits for the oil and gas sector, supporting Russian stocks. The geopolitical situation and sanction risks are still on the agenda: investors are cautiously monitoring news on these fronts. Overall, the Russian market is entering a new trading cycle after the weekend with hopes for a positive external backdrop and a continuation of the trend towards reducing inflationary pressure within the country.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention to
- China's Slowdown and Global Demand: Weak October data from China (decline in industrial production and retail growth rates) stands out as the main macro newsmaker of recent days. Investors need to assess how the cooling of the world’s second-largest economy will reflect on their portfolios. Potential negative effects could hit export-oriented companies and commodity assets—such as industrial metal and oil prices that may remain under pressure from decreased demand from China. In this context, markets await signals from Chinese authorities regarding additional economic stimulus measures, and any such announcements over the weekend or early in the week could significantly influence sentiment.
- Earnings Season: Sector Insights: The closing phase of corporate reporting sheds light on the state of various sectors of the economy. JBS's results highlighted problems in the agrifood sector—despite revenue growth, high costs are diminishing margins, especially in regions with constrained raw material supplies. Concurrently, Vallourec’s report indicated that the investment cycle in the oil and gas sector is on the rise: demand for industrial equipment (pipes) remains high, allowing companies in this segment to improve financial performance. Investors should leverage such signals when rebalancing assets: consider which sectors are currently performing better (energy, infrastructure) or worse (consumer goods, media), and how sustainable these trends are amid global economic slowdown.
- Lack of Data and Market Volatility: The pause on weekends for macro data publication is a calm before potential movements. The American shutdown continues to block the release of a number of indicators, increasing uncertainty: markets lack fresh benchmarks for inflation and consumption in the U.S. Under these conditions, the role of rumors and external indicators (e.g., leading indices, private survey data) amplifies. The sharp decline of U.S. exchanges on Friday indicates that investors are reacting nervously to any new information. As the new week begins, volatility may rise as accumulated news over the weekend plays into prices. Market participants should be prepared for potential sharp movements—as in an information vacuum, markets may overreact even to minor events.
- Risk Management on a Calm Day: The absence of trading on Saturday does not warrant losing vigilance. Investors should use this weekend to review their portfolios and strategies. Now is a suitable time to analyze recent company reports and macrodata, reassess target levels for positions and stop-losses. It is essential to check whether the fundamental premises for key assets have changed over the week. Additionally, it is beneficial to review diversification and hedging: is the portfolio balanced across sectors and markets, and is there protection against possible downturns (for example, in the form of defensive assets or put options)? This kind of "homework" on a calm day will help meet the new week fully prepared and lessen the impact of any unexpected shocks.
