Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Wednesday, December 24, 2025: Christmas Eve - Bank of Japan Minutes, US Jobless Claims, EIA Oil Report, CPI Data from Russia.
On Wednesday, global markets approach Christmas Eve in a mixed manner: some exchanges are closed, while trading in the US and several countries will be shortened to a half-day. Nevertheless, key economic events remain on the agenda. In Asia, investors are monitoring the minutes of the latest Bank of Japan meeting, which could shed light on the future direction of monetary policy following the historic rate hike. In the US, the key release of the day will be the weekly initial jobless claims—an important labor market indicator released during the pre-holiday period. In the commodity markets, the focus is on the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on oil inventories, which traditionally sets the short-term tone for oil prices. In Russia, later in the evening, industrial production and consumer inflation figures will be released, providing insights into the state of the Russian economy at the end of the year.
Global corporate reporting is experiencing a lull: there are no major releases in the US and Europe due to the holidays, while only isolated results are being published in Asia and on the Moscow Exchange. Investors will need to account for low liquidity and high volatility in the thin market during the holiday, closely monitoring even minor data—unexpected deviations can disproportionately affect market sentiment.
Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)
- 02:50 — Japan: Publication of the minutes from the latest Bank of Japan meeting.
- 16:30 — US: Initial jobless claims (weekly).
- 18:30 — US: Weekly oil and petroleum product inventories according to EIA.
- 19:00 — Russia: Industrial production, November 2025.
- 19:00 — Russia: Consumer inflation (CPI).
Markets on Holiday: Christmas Closures
- Exchanges Closed: In Germany, Switzerland, Argentina, and Brazil, financial markets will be closed on December 24 due to Christmas celebrations.
- Shortened Sessions: In the US, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, trading sessions will conclude around midday (early closing of markets).
Bank of Japan Minutes: A Look After the Rate Hike
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised markets at its last meeting by tightening policy and raising its key interest rate to 0.75%—the highest level in three decades. The minutes released today will provide investors with a detailed account of the discussions within the regulator. It will be particularly important to determine:
- Whether there were disagreements among BoJ board members regarding the rate hike and the assessment of inflationary risks.
- If there are plans to modify the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy in light of rising yields and inflation above target levels.
- The BoJ's assessment of the yen's trajectory and external factors: the minutes may contain hints regarding the regulator's view on the impact of a weak yen on the economy and prices.
Any signals regarding further steps from the BoJ will influence the yen’s dynamics and market sentiment in Asia. For now, the bank's tone remains cautious, indicating that future actions will depend on incoming data regarding Japan's economy.
US Labor Market: Jobless Claims in Focus
Weekly initial jobless claims in the US serve as a timely indicator of the labor market's health. The data for the past week comes against the backdrop of the holiday period when statistical noise typically increases. Investors need to watch the trend:
- If the number of new claims remains around multi-year lows (~200–230,000), it confirms the labor market's resilience and supports positive sentiment in the S&P 500 equity market.
- A rise in the figure above expectations could signal a slowdown in hiring and the first signs of an increase in unemployment. However, a single spike during holiday weeks is often distorted by seasonal factors.
Since the US Federal Reserve considers labor market stability when making rate decisions, even secondary statistics like jobless claims could impact market expectations regarding the regulator's policy—especially if the figure deviates unexpectedly from the forecast.
EIA Oil Inventory Report in the US
The US Department of Energy will publish its weekly report on commercial oil and petroleum product inventories (EIA). This report, traditionally released on Wednesdays, has the potential to influence WTI and Brent oil prices in the short term. Key aspects of the report include:
- Change in Oil Inventories: A decrease in inventories (drawdown) typically indicates robust demand or restricted supply, supporting price increases. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inventories (build) may signal weak demand or excess supply, putting downward pressure on prices.
- Gasoline and Distillate Inventories: The dynamics of fuel reserves are especially important during the winter season. A reduction in gasoline or diesel stocks amid holiday transport activity may amplify upward pressure on energy prices, while an excess of fuel stocks could exert the opposite pressure.
Given the approaching end of the year, volatility in the oil market may increase with low liquidity. Investors in commodity assets should be prepared for sharp price movements in response to unexpected EIA data.
Industrial Production and Inflation in Russia
Russian macroeconomic indicators will be released in the evening hours and are likely to attract significant attention in the local market (MOEX index) and the ruble currency market:
- Industrial Production (November): Data on industrial production will clarify the degree to which the economy has adapted to sanction conditions. Moderate year-on-year growth would indicate the beginning of a recovery in the sector, whereas a decline would signal continued pressure on manufacturing.
- Inflation Indicators (CPI): Consumer inflation in Russia has shown signs of slowing in recent months following a spike earlier in the year. New data will reveal whether the downward trend in price growth has been maintained. For the Bank of Russia, which recently lowered the key rate to 16%, ongoing disinflation would support further easing of policy into 2026. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations, this could limit the scope for rate reductions.
The reaction of the Russian stock market and the ruble's exchange rate to these indicators will depend on the degree of deviation of the data from forecasts. Strong industrial results and low inflation are likely to support local companies' stocks and strengthen the ruble, while weak figures could intensify investor concerns regarding the prospects for the Russian economy.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- US (S&P 500): No major corporate financial releases are scheduled for the S&P 500 on December 24. Investors in the US will focus on the day's macro statistics, concluding trading early due to the holiday.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): Christmas holidays in Europe mean the absence of corporate releases from blue-chip companies within the Euro Stoxx 50. European markets are closed, and their benchmarks will only be shaped by external factors, such as currency and raw material price dynamics.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): The Japanese market (Nikkei 225) operates under normal conditions amidst a general global lull. In Tokyo, the quarterly reporting period continues: for example, the pharmacy chain Kusuri No Aoki Holdings publishes its financial results on December 24. Although these events are local, they reflect the state of consumer demand in the region.
- Russia (MOEX): On the Moscow Exchange, most companies have already released their financial results for the third quarter, so few new corporate reports are expected on December 24. The major annual results of the largest Russian issuers will be published after the New Year holidays, according to the standard reporting schedule.
Daily Summary: Key Points for Investors
- Low Market Liquidity: The pre-holiday day with shortened sessions and closed exchanges will lead to reduced trading volumes. In such conditions, even minor news may provoke disproportionately strong price fluctuations. Investors must exercise particular caution when placing orders and account for potential spikes in volatility.
- Bank of Japan Policy: The details of the BoJ minutes will indicate how willing the regulator is to continue tightening policy. If there are signals of further rate hikes or changes to YCC in the document, this will affect the yen's exchange rate and set the tone for trading in Asia.
- US Data: Labor market metrics in the US (jobless claims) will serve as a barometer for economic activity at the end of the year. Sharp deviations may prompt a reassessment of Fed rate expectations and could influence the S&P 500 index, although the response may be muted in a shortened session.
- Oil Market: The EIA oil inventory report will be released in a thin market, potentially amplifying the price reaction. Oil volatility may also impact commodity currencies (e.g., the Canadian dollar) and energy sector stocks worldwide.
- Russian Macroeconomic Statistics: Industrial production and inflation indicators from Russia will impact the MOEX index and the ruble's exchange rate. Strong data could bolster expectations for further rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia and improve investor sentiment, while weak figures may heighten caution and apply downward pressure on the market.
