Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, January 1, 2026: VAT Increase in Russia, EU Ban on New Gas Contracts, Crypto Regulation in Europe and the UK, Global Market Closures, and Key Indicators for Investors.
The beginning of the year is marked by significant changes in tax policy in Russia and important international developments in the energy and financial sectors. While most global markets are closed due to the New Year holidays, investors should pay attention to several key events: the European Union is implementing a ban on new gas contracts from Russia as of January 1, Sweden is lifting restrictions on uranium mining, the UK and EU are tightening reporting requirements for cryptocurrency exchanges, and new laws regulating digital currencies are being adopted in Central Asia. Additionally, Russia is increasing its VAT rate to 22% and preparing to remove the UAE from the blacklist of offshore jurisdictions. These factors will shape the agenda for the first days of 2026.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- January 1: Most countries around the world celebrate the New Year. Due to the festive holidays, no significant macroeconomic releases are scheduled for this day.
Markets During the Holidays: Trading Closures
- Exchanges Closed: China, Kazakhstan, the USA, the UK, most EU countries, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Canada, Turkey, and others are closed for New Year celebrations.
- Russian Markets: The Moscow Exchange is closed on January 1, while the St. Petersburg Exchange operates as usual.
Tax Changes in Russia
- As of January 1, 2026, the VAT rate in the Russian Federation is increased to 22%. This rise may temporarily boost consumer prices and support inflation at the household expenditure level.
- The Russian Ministry of Finance plans to exclude the UAE from the blacklist of offshore jurisdictions. This decision is expected to simplify financial operations for Russian companies with partners from the UAE and affect the international investment climate.
Energy Sector: EU Ban on Russian Gas
As of January 1, the European Union’s ban on new contracts for the supply of Russian natural gas comes into effect. This move continues the tightening of sanctions against Russia and may lead to an increase in gas prices in Europe, particularly ahead of the heating season. For European countries, this will stimulate the search for alternative energy sources and accelerate the transition to renewable and LNG supplies.
- The ban does not apply to existing contracts, but it encourages a long-term reduction in Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.
- Increased demand for LNG and domestic gas in the EU is expected to lead to heightened volatility in energy markets and changes in strategies among major suppliers.
Sweden: Resumption of Uranium Mining
Sweden has officially lifted its ban on uranium mining effective January 2026. This decision opens up opportunities for the development of the country's nuclear sector, which had previously been restricted by legislation. New licenses will allow mining operations to resume or commence at uranium deposits, supporting Sweden's plans to diversify its energy sector and strengthen fuel security.
Cryptocurrencies: UK and EU Strengthen Reporting Requirements
- United Kingdom: As of January 1, cryptocurrency exchanges are required to provide comprehensive information about users and their transactions to tax authorities. These measures aim to combat money laundering and tax evasion.
- European Union: A directive comes into force requiring crypto platforms to disclose transaction and client data to national tax authorities. The regulation aims to enhance transparency and control over the circulation of digital currencies in the EU.
Digital Currencies in Central Asia: Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan: A special legal regime has been introduced allowing the use of stablecoins for the purchase of goods and services. This innovation may stimulate a growth in cashless transactions and interest in digital assets in the country.
- Turkmenistan: A new law on virtual assets has been enacted, legalizing mining, operations of crypto exchanges, and exchange services. The document recognizes cryptocurrencies as legitimate assets, opening up new opportunities for the IT sector and attracting investments.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- USA (S&P 500): On January 1, American markets are closed for the New Year. Major corporations are not releasing reports, and investors are awaiting the start of full trading activity at the beginning of the week.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): Major European exchanges are not conducting trading in the holiday atmosphere. Index benchmarks are being formed based on external factors such as currency exchange rates and energy resource prices.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): Japanese and many other Asian markets are closed for New Year holidays. The global political and economic agenda plays a primary role for Asian indices at the beginning of the year.
- Russia (MOEX): The Moscow Exchange is closed on January 1 due to a national holiday. Relevant events, such as changes in taxes and geopolitical developments, will influence the MOEX and the ruble exchange rate after trading resumes.
Daily Summary: What to Watch for Investors
- Low Liquidity: Trading volumes traditionally drop during the New Year holidays. In such conditions, even small news can cause sharp price fluctuations. Investors should exercise caution and consider the heightened volatility.
- VAT and Inflation in Russia: The increase in VAT to 22% will impact consumer demand and inflation levels. It is important to monitor the Central Bank of Russia's response regarding monetary policy in light of new tax revenues and price pressures.
- Energy Markets: The EU's ban on Russian gas increases uncertainty in the energy market. It is advisable to watch the price dynamics of natural gas and oil, as well as the reactions of LNG suppliers.
- Crypto Regulation: The tightening of reporting requirements for crypto exchanges in the UK and EU may affect liquidity and trust in digital assets. Investors should account for new regulatory risks when dealing with cryptocurrencies.
- Central Asia and Blockchain: The legalization of cryptocurrencies in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan creates new opportunities for local IT companies and investors. These changes signal a growing interest in innovative financial instruments in the region.
Open Oil Market wishes all investors a prosperous and successful 2026 year with well-informed investment decisions. Stay tuned for updates and keep abreast of the key events in the global markets and economy.
