Economic events and corporate reports — Saturday, February 7, 2026: elections in Japan, China's reserves, and central banks' pause

Saturday brings a relative calm after an intense week: financial markets are digesting recent central bank decisions and corporate reports, while investors prepare for a series of events that could set the tone for the beginning of the new trading week. No significant macroeconomic releases are scheduled for today; however, all eyes are on a major political event: the early parliamentary elections in Japan. Simultaneously, market participants are monitoring signals from China (including updates on foreign exchange reserves for January) and assessing the effects of the suspension of statistical releases in the U.S. due to a temporary government shutdown. In such conditions, Saturday serves as a pause for reassessing positions and preparing for upcoming market movements.

The global macroeconomic picture shows a pause: major central banks have synchronously held interest rates steady, confirming a wait-and-see approach. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its rate in the 3.5-3.75% range at its January meeting, signaling its desire to assess the impact of previous easing measures. The European Central Bank decided to keep rates unchanged at its meeting on February 5 (the deposit rate remains around 2.15%), noting that inflation in the eurozone is close to the target level and that more time is needed to analyze price dynamics. The Bank of England also voted to keep its rate at 3.75%, a decision backed by a majority amid cooling inflation and moderate economic growth in the UK. In Japan, the Bank of Japan held its main rate at 0.75% earlier in January, but the upcoming **early parliamentary elections** (on February 8) could indirectly influence the country's future monetary policy. Central banks signal a pause in the rate change cycle, giving markets time to stabilize: bond yields fluctuate within a narrow range, and exchange rates of emerging market currencies receive support amid a weakened U.S. dollar. At the same time, investors are monitoring the resumption of operations by U.S. statistical agencies – the delay in the release of essential metrics (e.g., January's employment report) adds uncertainty, but publications are expected to resume next week.

U.S. stock markets finished the week cautiously, showing mixed dynamics. On Friday, the main indices recovered part of their losses: the Dow Jones rose by approximately 2%, reaching a historic high, while the S&P 500 gained about 1.6%, and Nasdaq strengthened by ~1.8%. However, even this rally could not fully compensate for the slump of recent days – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded a decline over the week (the third week among the last four for the high-tech index). Earlier in the week, the market faced pressure from fears of overheating in the tech sector and the huge expenditures of industry leaders on artificial intelligence, prompting partial profit-taking by investors. An additional factor of uncertainty was the delayed release of key U.S. statistics: due to the government shutdown, the January Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, traditionally determining market sentiments, was postponed to February 11. In the absence of fresh data, investors relied on corporate results and forecasts. U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively stable (10-year U.S. Treasuries around 4.2%), reflecting expectations of further easing by the Fed over the year. The U.S. dollar slightly weakened against major currencies: the USD index is declining to the 97-98 range as the Fed’s pause and the absence of surprises in the economy reduce demand for safe-haven assets. Overall, the U.S. market enters the weekend with cautious optimism – participants are awaiting the resumption of macro data publications and seeking new indicators in corporate announcements.

European stock indices approached the weekend without sharp changes, adjusting to signals from the ECB and local statistics. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fluctuated within a narrow range last week, closing on Friday near its previous closing levels. Investors in Europe received confirmation of the expected scenario: the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged and confirmed that inflation is gradually slowing towards the target of 2%. This bolstered confidence that there would be no new rate hikes in the near term and provided support to interest-sensitive sectors, particularly banking and real estate, which benefited from the stabilization of borrowing costs. At the same time, the macroeconomic picture in the region remains mixed. Preliminary GDP data for several eurozone countries for Q4 2025 are expected to be published next week, and markets are holding their breath: forecasts indicate modest positive growth in Germany and France, but the UK may show stagnation or slight decline. The British FTSE 100 maintained close to local highs despite the Bank of England's pause – many export-oriented companies benefited from the relatively weak pound. The European energy sector showed neutral dynamics: oil prices stabilized, and the gas market remained balanced. In the absence of shocks, investors in Europe are focused on corporate news and preparing to evaluate new data on industrial production and inflation to adjust expectations regarding ECB policy come March.

Asian markets are generally maintaining a cautious optimism, though investor attention is shifting to regional events. At the center of the Asian agenda is Japan, where early general elections for the House of Representatives will take place on Sunday, February 8. Prime Minister Sanae Takahichi hopes to strengthen her government's mandate; political stability or its absence could impact the dynamics of the yen and Japanese stocks at the beginning of the week. Ahead of the elections, the Nikkei 225 index traded without sharp changes: investors took a wait-and-see attitude, considering that opinion polls predict a majority for the ruling coalition, but intrigue remains regarding the distribution of seats. The Japanese market is also digesting signals from the Bank of Japan – while the regulator made no changes to the rate, it indicated that further steps would depend on the economic policy of the government post-elections and on the inflation dynamics, which in Japan began to accelerate to 2%. In China, cautious optimism persists: official data indicate continued stabilization of the economy. Today, updates on China's international reserves for January are expected – analysts forecast a figure around $3.35 trillion, comparable to the previous month. Stable gold and foreign currency reserves indicate a relative balance of capital flows and support for the yuan from the regulator. Mainland China and Hong Kong markets showed moderate growth last week in anticipation of stimulus measures: Chinese authorities promised to support the banking sector with additional liquidity ahead of the long holidays in celebration of the New Year (Chun Jie will occur on February 17). Additionally, investors welcome signs of recovering domestic demand – data on production and retail sales expected early next week will help gauge the strength of this trend. Overall, Asian exchanges conclude the week without turbulence: MSCI Asia ex-Japan shows modest gains supported by growth in Indian and Southeast Asian markets. Regional currencies, including the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee, remain resilient, benefiting from the Fed's pause and capital inflows into emerging markets.

The Russian stock and currency markets display stability at the end of the week against a backdrop of external calm and domestic news. The Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX) ended Friday’s trading with a slight increase, consolidating near local highs. This was aided by relatively favorable conditions in the commodity markets: the price of Brent oil is maintained around $65 per barrel, which is comfortable for Russian exporters and the budget. The Russian ruble has slightly strengthened in recent days, trading around 74 rubles to the U.S. dollar, supported by stable oil and gas revenues and currency sales by exporters under the budget rule. Investors are also evaluating fresh macro data: according to the Ministry of Finance, Russia's federal budget deficit in January 2026 is preliminarily estimated to be around 1.7 trillion rubles (0.7% of GDP) – significantly higher than a year earlier due to a 50% decline in oil and gas revenues year-on-year (down to 393 billion rubles), while non-oil revenues rose by 4.5% year-on-year. Although such a start to the year raises questions about the stability of budget policy, authorities assure that the situation is under control and that the deficit will narrow as quarterly tax payments come in. OFZ bonds remain calm: yields on ten-year bonds fluctuate around 10.5-11%, reflecting expectations of an imminent easing of monetary policy. Indeed, all eyes are on the Bank of Russia – its next meeting on the key rate is scheduled for February 13. Market participants price in a high probability that the Central Bank of Russia will keep the rate at its current level (15% per annum) following a series of increases in the second half of 2025. The slowdown in inflation in Russia (consumer prices in January rose by less than 0.5% month-on-month) and the strengthening ruble create conditions for easing the regulator's rhetoric. However, any potential rate reduction may only occur closer to spring if inflation expectations sustainably decline. Overall, the Russian financial market enters the weekend on a balanced note: investors assess high interest rates and budget risks but see support from exports and regulators' readiness to deploy tools to maintain stability if necessary.

Saturday traditionally does not bring new financial reporting publications, so investor attention is focused on the results from the past week and expected releases in the coming days. At the global level, the reporting season for Q4 2025 continues, and several leading companies have already presented their results, setting the market tone. Here are a few notable cases by regions and sectors:

Apple (USA): The tech giant reported record revenue for the 2025 holiday quarter – sales reached $143.8 billion (+16% year-on-year) due to high demand for new iPhone models and growth in service offerings. Both profit and margin also surpassed analysts’ forecasts. Apple’s management highlighted the resilience of consumer demand and announced an expansion of the buyback program, which was positively received by the market: the company’s shares have remained close to historic highs.
Amazon (USA): The largest e-commerce and cloud firm presented mixed results: revenue for Q4 increased by approximately 14% year-on-year, however, quarterly profit fell short of expectations. Moreover, Amazon's plans for capital expenditures in 2026 (around $200 billion, including investments in AI infrastructure and logistics) raised concerns among investors about the scale of expenditures. In light of this news, Amazon's shares dropped by ~8%, reflecting worries over business margins. However, management assures that these investments will yield long-term growth in their cloud and advertising segments.
LVMH (Europe): The world's largest luxury goods conglomerate (brands such as Louis Vuitton, Dior, Moët Hennessy, etc.) wrapped up the 2025 financial year. Annual revenue was around €80.8 billion, which is 5% lower than the record level of 2024, partly due to currency factors and a slowdown in sales in the fashion and leather goods segment. Operating profit decreased by ~9% year-on-year. LVMH’s management noted that stabilization in demand was observed in the second half of 2025, especially in the United States, expressing cautious optimism for 2026, expecting a recovery in growth in China after the easing of restrictions. Investors reacted neutrally to the results: LVMH's shares remained in the range of the past few months, given the anticipated slowdown.
Toyota (Japan): The automaker released results for the third quarter of the 2025 financial year (October-December). Toyota's revenue rose by ~7% due to increased global car sales and a weakened yen, but operating profit has decreased for the third consecutive quarter. Profitability was under pressure from rising costs and new import tariffs in the U.S., leading to a decline in operating profit of approximately 15% year-on-year. Nonetheless, the company maintained its annual forecast unchanged and announced a change in leadership: in April 2026, the CEO position will transition to Kenté Kon. The market reacted calmly to the news: Toyota’s shares traded with minimal fluctuations, considering that the profit decline was expected.
Sberbank (Russia): The leading Russian bank concluded 2025 on a positive note. Following Q4 results, according to a preliminary unaudited estimate, Sberbank demonstrated a twofold increase in net profit year-on-year, benefiting from high interest rates and an increase in loan margins. The loan portfolio continued to expand, particularly in the corporate segment, while asset quality remains stable. These results practically guarantee the bank's record annual profit and form expectations for generous dividends for 2025. Investors positively assess Sberbank's prospects: its shares have consistently risen in recent weeks, considering the prospect of a rate cut by the Central Bank of Russia later in 2026, which may stimulate further loan demand.

Thus, Saturday, February 7, 2026, passes relatively calmly but ahead lie a series of events that could significantly impact sentiments in global markets. Investors should use this pause for analysis and prepare for possible volatility. Key indicators for the upcoming days and weeks include the following points:

Political Events in Asia: The results of the early elections in Japan will be known soon on Sunday. Maintaining a stable government or an unexpected outcome could influence the yen's exchange rate and the Japanese market dynamics, as well as set the tone for trading in the Asia-Pacific region at the beginning of the week.
Important Macroeconomic Data: In the U.S., the publication of the key labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls for January) has been postponed to February 11, traditionally determining expectations regarding Fed policy. Over the week, investors also expect data on U.S. inflation (CPI for January) – its release may be shifted in the schedule, but its importance for the market remains high. In Europe, attention will be directed to preliminary GDP estimates for the UK and the eurozone for Q4 2025: these indicators will show how confidently the largest economies are overcoming current challenges.
Commodity Price Dynamics: Prices for oil and other commodities remain an important indicator for the global market. Brent oil is maintained around comfortable $60-65 per barrel following coordinated actions by OPEC+ to regulate production. Over the weekend, investors should monitor any statements from major oil exporters – unanticipated comments or cartel decisions may trigger price fluctuations. Volatility in the commodity market will directly reflect on the currencies and stocks of resource-producing countries (Russian ruble, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, shares of oil and gas companies, and metallurgists).
Monetary Policy and Bond Markets: After the synchronized pause by the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, investors will be looking for hints at future actions by regulators. Next week, the Bank of Russia meeting (February 13) will take place – any changes in rates or rhetoric from one of the few central banks still maintaining a tight policy will attract the attention of global players. Additionally, comments from representatives of the U.S. Fed, ECB, or Bank of Japan in the coming days could adjust expectations regarding rates for the upcoming months. Bond yields, especially U.S. Treasuries and German bunds, will be sensitive to these signals and will set direction for the entire capital market.
Geopolitical Risks and Sudden News: In an environment of relative calm, unexpected news can trigger changes in sentiment. International negotiations (e.g., dialogue on Iran's nuclear program, trade discussions between the U.S. and China, or news from the Ukrainian front) may arise over the weekend. It is essential for investors to remain vigilant to the news flow: any significant statements from politicians, sanction decisions, or emergencies can cause short-term strong movements in individual assets and sectors.

This current calm provides an opportunity for investors to reassess their strategies and balance portfolios ahead of upcoming events. Analyzing recent trends – from financial results to central bank signals – will aid in making informed decisions. A busy week lies ahead, and attention to the factors mentioned will allow for timely responses to changes in market conditions, keeping the portfolio aligned with the updated realities. Global markets are at a crossroads: the outcome of the elections in Japan, U.S. statistics, and new economic indicators will determine the direction of capital flow, while a well-prepared investor will be ready to face these upcoming changes head-on.