Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on December 23, 2025. Focus is on the preliminary estimate of the US GDP for Q3, the minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, key consumer confidence and manufacturing activity indicators from the US, as well as reports from select companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
On Tuesday, a significant block of macroeconomic statistics from the US hits the markets, capable of setting the trading direction as Christmas holidays approach. Investors are focused on the first official estimate of the US GDP for Q3 2025, which had been delayed due to a pause in the operations of US government agencies. In addition to the GDP, several indicators—from durable goods orders and industrial production to the consumer confidence index—will provide a comprehensive view of the US economy at the year's end. In the Asia-Pacific region, market participants will scrutinize the tone of the minutes from the latest RBA meeting for hints about future monetary policy. On the corporate front, a lull sets in: in the US, only a few second-tier companies will release reports, while in Europe, Asia, and the Russian market, no major releases are expected. The combination of these factors will determine investors' mood, as it is vital for them to align macro data with the prospects for the Fed's interest rates, dollar dynamics, commodity prices, and overall risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 03:30 — Australia: RBA meeting minutes.
- 16:15 — US: ADP employment data (weekly report).
- 16:30 — US: durable goods orders for October.
- 16:30 — US: housing starts for September.
- 16:30 — US: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary estimate).
- 17:15 — US: industrial production for November.
- 18:00 — US: Conference Board consumer confidence index (December).
- 18:00 — US: Richmond Fed manufacturing index (December).
- 00:30 (Wed) — US: weekly oil inventories according to API.
US: Q3 GDP and Economic Dynamics
- Preliminary GDP (Q3 2025): The first estimate of US economic growth for Q3 should clarify how confidently the economy closed the year. A solid annual growth rate (in the range of 3-4%) is expected, reflecting a recovery from the downturn at the beginning of 2025. Investors will pay particular attention to the structure of GDP; stable household consumption and growth in corporate investments confirm the economy's resilience, while weakness in these areas would signal a budding slowdown. The unusually late publication of GDP (moved to the end of December due to statistical delays) heightens intrigue and could trigger increased volatility in the US stock market and Treasury bond market.
- Domestic Demand and Inflation: GDP components related to expenditures (personal consumption, capital investments) will be evaluated against inflation trends. If GDP growth is accompanied by moderate core inflation, it will support expectations of a "soft landing" and a possible shift in the Fed towards rate cuts in the second half of 2026. However, excessively high rates of economic expansion could amplify concerns about overheating and tightening Fed policy, which may trigger a rise in Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar.
- Impact of Foreign Trade and Inventories: Market attention will focus on the external sector's contribution and changes in inventories within the overall GDP dynamics. A significant export contribution or a reduction in imports would improve the trade balance, supporting industrial and commodity firms (particularly against the backdrop of the US dollar weakening in recent months). Simultaneously, substantial growth in inventory levels may signal demand saturation and the risk of production slowdown ahead. It is crucial for investors to distinguish between one-off factors and sustainable trends embedded within these components, in order to calibrate strategies for the beginning of 2026.
US Manufacturing Indicators and Housing Market
- Durable Goods Orders (October): The new orders measure for durable goods reflects corporate capital expenditures and demand for long-lasting products (from cars to equipment). A slight increase in orders is expected following a decline the previous month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity in Q4. Special attention will be given to core orders (Core Capital Goods) excluding defense and aviation—steady growth in this category signals business confidence and plans for investment. Positive dynamics in orders will benefit shares in the industrial sector and Dow Jones, while weak data may heighten concerns about stagnation in manufacturing.
- Housing Starts: Data on new housing starts for September (postponed publication to December) will show the state of the US housing market amid high mortgage rates. Significant growth in new constructions would indicate a partial adaptation of builders and buyers to high-cost loans, supporting shares of developers and related sectors. A continued decline in housing starts, conversely, would confirm that the housing sector remains under pressure—this signal could affect the stocks of construction companies, building materials producers, and indirectly the consumer sector (through the household wealth effect).
- Industrial Production (November): The Fed's report on industrial output for November will complement the picture of the manufacturing sector's condition. In October, the industrial production index rose, thanks to energy, and investors expect this trend to continue or at least stabilize. Important will be the figures for the manufacturing sector: an uptick in factory output will indicate increased demand and inventory offloading, whereas a decline will serve as a worrisome sign ahead of the new year. Market reaction to this data will manifest in sectoral dynamics of stocks: improved manufacturing will support the industrial and commodity segments of the S&P 500, while weakness may heighten interest in defensive instruments.
US Consumer Confidence and Labor Market
- Consumer Confidence Index (December): The fresh consumer confidence index from the Conference Board will showcase the mood of American households at year-end. A slight improvement is expected following a dip in the fall: toward the holidays, consumers are traditionally more optimistic due to discounts and bonuses; however, high inflation and costly credit still dampen enthusiasm. If the index exceeds expectations, it will signal good news for retail companies and the services sector (more spending equals higher revenues). A drop in the confidence index may indicate consumer cautiousness and a tendency to save, which would alert investors regarding the economic outlook heading into 2026.
- Labor Market: ADP data and Regional Indicators: The weekly ADP employment report will provide a timely estimate of hiring trends in the US private sector. Recent publications have pointed to a slowdown in the creation of new jobs—if this trend continues (with new job numbers close to zero or negative), it will align with the overall picture of a cooling labor market. Conversely, consistently positive ADP Weekly figures indicate continued job strength, supporting consumer spending. Additionally, the Richmond Fed's manufacturing activity index for December will allow for an assessment of the situation at the regional level: growth in the index into positive territory signals industrial revival in the Southeast US, while a decline would reinforce concerns regarding a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Collectively, labor and regional activity indicators will help adjust forecasts for the Fed's decision at the upcoming meeting, as the Federal Reserve considers cooling labor market conditions when modifying policy direction.
- Market Reaction to Consumer and Labor Data: For stock markets, balance is crucial: a moderate weakening of consumer confidence and hiring might even please investors by reducing the likelihood of new rate hikes from the Fed. Conversely, excessively weak figures could raise recession fears, impacting the shares of cyclically sensitive companies (retail, automotive, manufacturing). Optimistic indicators (high Consumer Confidence, strong hiring) will temporarily support stocks, particularly those oriented towards domestic demand, but may provoke bond sell-offs due to fears of "overheating" in the economy. Thus, trading participants will seek the golden mean in the incoming statistics, reacting sectorally according to the nature of the surprise in the data.
Australia: RBA Minutes and Currency Market
- RBA Rhetoric and Rate Prospects: The minutes from the December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will reveal details of discussions among Australian regulators. Although the rate likely remained unchanged at the meeting, the tone of the minutes will show the balance of opinions: whether risks of economic overheating were discussed, or whether the focus has shifted to slowing inflation and supporting growth. If the minutes signal heightened concern regarding GDP and labor market weakness, markets may price in an increased likelihood of RBA rate cuts in 2026. More "hawkish" tones (emphasizing still-high inflation and a readiness to raise rates if necessary) could come as a surprise, strengthening the Australian dollar and raising yields on Australian bonds.
- Impact on AUD and Regional Assets: The Australian dollar (AUD) and the local ASX 200 index will react to the content of the minutes. A soft, "dovish" protocol (hinting at a prolonged pause or even a possible policy easing) generally weakens the AUD, which is positive for export-oriented sectors of the Australian economy (mining, agriculture). At the same time, this may support the Australian stock market, as low rates enhance stock valuations. Conversely, if it turns out that RBA members maintain a hawkish stance, the AUD will gain upward momentum, while stocks in Sydney may dip slightly due to the prospect of pricier credit. Indirectly, signals from the RBA minutes also affect other commodity currencies—like the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the Canadian dollar (CAD)—setting the tone for movements in the currency market during the Asian session.
- Global Central Bank Context: Investors from the CIS and Europe will also pay attention to the Australian protocol, even though it is released early in the morning Moscow time. Australia often acts as a "leading indicator" for monetary trends in developed countries, thus a softer RBA policy may intensify expectations that other central banks (for instance, the Bank of Canada or even the US Fed) may begin easing their stance by mid-2026. Therefore, any significant revelations within the document will be considered by global market participants when forming strategies for the following year, particularly in the commodity currency segment and related industries.
Corporate Reports: US and Other Markets
- US (NYSE/NASDAQ): Among major public companies in the US, no notable reports are due on December 23. However, several second-tier businesses will present their financial results. Among them is Limoneira Company (LMNR)—a California agribusiness holding that grows citrus; investors will look to see if the company managed to reduce losses amidst stabilizing lemon and avocado prices. Additionally, restaurant operator Good Times Restaurants (GTIM), which owns regional chains of burger bars, will report. The market will focus on sales dynamics at existing restaurants and the company’s measures to maintain margins amidst rising costs. Another release on the day will be from Digerati Technologies (DTGI), a small tech holding in cloud infrastructure: shareholders are interested in the outcomes of the recent business reorganization and the new management’s plans to achieve profitability. Although the scale of these issuers is limited, their reports can locally influence narrow sectors (agriculture, food service, telecom) and serve as indicators of the health of small and medium-sized businesses in the US.
- Europe: European exchanges on this Tuesday exhibit an information vacuum—none of the largest companies within the Euro Stoxx 50 index planned to release financial results on December 23. Business activity in Europe declines ahead of Christmas, as investors shift focus to external factors, primarily US macro data and currency fluctuations. Some minor issuers may release reports or operational updates (for example, certain developers or real estate investment funds in the UK and Germany), but their impact on the market will be limited. European trading venues are likely to respond to the broader global sentiment shaped by the US and energy price dynamics.
- Asia: In the Asia-Pacific region, the period of mass corporate reporting has already concluded, and on December 23, no significant publications from companies within the Nikkei 225 or MSCI Asia Pacific are expected. Most Japanese corporations reported their semi-annual results back in November, and major players will not release new financial results until after the New Year. Chinese and Asian markets will predominantly rely on external signals that day—American statistics and currency/commodity dynamics. Thus, the Asian session will proceed relatively calmly concerning corporate events, allowing participants to focus on macro developments and political factors within the region.
- Russia (MOEX): The end of December traditionally does not reward investors in the Russian equity market with significant reports. The majority of issuers within the MOEX index have already disclosed results for the first nine months of 2025 earlier in the fall, and annual reports will only emerge in 2026. December 23 may bring some corporate news: several companies are holding board meetings before the holidays. In particular, several large domestic companies are considering interim dividends for past quarters—any dividend announcement (for instance, for the first nine months of 2025) could locally boost the stock of the respective issuer. However, overall, the information picture on the Moscow Exchange is calm, and the domestic market will look to external markets and oil prices to determine the short-term trend.
Other Regions and Indices: An Investor's Perspective
- Euro Stoxx 50 and European Markets: In the absence of corporate drivers, European investors will focus on macroeconomic factors. Strong data from the US (particularly GDP and consumer confidence) may bolster the European banking and industrial sectors, signaling sustained demand for exports. At the same time, any signs of a global economic slowdown (should, for example, US GDP disappoint) will prompt a capital shift towards European safe assets—bonds, shares of utility companies, and telecoms. The EUR/USD exchange rate is also under scrutiny: continued strengthening of the euro against dovish signals from the Fed may pressure Eurozone exporters’ shares, while a stronger dollar could ease conditions for European manufacturers. Overall, exchanges in Frankfurt, Paris, and London on December 23 will move under the influence of external news, given the sparse domestic news flow.
- Nikkei 225 and Asian Indices: For Japanese and Asian markets, this Tuesday will serve as a pause before year-end. The Nikkei 225 may react to changes in the yen rate: if US data lead to dollar strengthening, it benefits export-oriented Japanese corporations (automotive, electronics), providing support to the Nikkei index. In Chinese and other Asian markets, investor sentiment will be determined by a combination of factors: the RBA minutes will set the tone for both the Australian and regional banking sectors, commodity prices (oil, metals) will affect resource companies, and the performance of the US Nasdaq could reflect on tech shares in Asia. In general, significant local events are few, rendering Asian indices as a "barometer" of global risk—an increase in risk appetite will drive them up, while a retreat from risk due to weak data will pull quotes down.
- Russian Market (MOEX): Domestic indices IMOEX and RTS, amidst a calm internal news backdrop, will align with global trends and oil price dynamics. Any substantial fluctuations in oil quotes, associated with the API report or demand expectations, are quickly reflected in the shares of the oil and gas sector, which holds a significant weight within the Moscow Exchange index. If Brent crude remains at high levels (for example, around $80-85 per barrel) due to reduced inventories and optimism regarding demand, it will support Russian energy blue chips and the ruble. Conversely, weakness in the commodity market will add pressure on Russian stocks. Additionally, external signals from the US Fed and ECB (in the context of GDP and inflation data) may influence investor sentiment in Russia via global risk appetite: an improvement in external conditions will boost demand for risk assets, including Russian ones, while rising fears will prompt players to reduce positions in emerging markets.
Summary of the Day: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- US GDP and Orders: The key factor of the day is the publication of US GDP for Q3 2025. Stronger-than-expected economic growth (over ~4%) may trigger a revision of Fed rate forecasts, simultaneously causing a rise in bond yields and supporting cyclical stocks. Additionally, we keep an eye on durable goods orders: a robust increase will confirm the trend of recovering investment activity, while weakness in the indicator will heighten concerns for the industrial sector.
- Consumer Mood: The December consumer confidence index and accompanying data (retail sales, if any) will indicate direction for consumer goods and services companies. Investors should assess whether households continue to exhibit readiness to spend amidst high living costs. Any signs of weakening consumer demand should signal caution regarding retail networks, auto dealers, and travel companies, while unexpected optimism growth could propel their stocks.
- RBA Minutes and Currencies: The morning outcomes from the RBA meeting may set the tone for trading in the currency market on Tuesday. If the minutes turn out to be softer than expected, a decrease in AUD and NZD can be anticipated, which will reflect on commodity prices (due to cheaper production) and on the currency pairs of developing markets. For investors in global assets, the signal from the RBA serves as another confirmation (or refutation) of the beginning of a policy easing cycle worldwide. It is also essential to consider the ruble's exchange rate: fluctuations in oil prices and the overall risk appetite shaped by the day's external events can sway the ruble, impacting the local debt and equity markets in Russia.
- Oil and Commodity Markets: The combination of news today directly affects the commodity segment. The API report late in the evening will provide a preliminary estimation of the US oil market situation—a significant reduction in oil or gasoline inventories will support oil price growth, while an unexpected rise in inventories could trigger a downward correction. For investors in the oil and gas sector, it is prudent to predefine target price ranges and potential protective positions, considering that liquidity tends to decrease before the Christmas holidays, leading to sharper price fluctuations than usual. Attention should also be directed toward industrial metals: no data will be released from China that day; hence, metals will primarily react to US industrial figures and overall risk appetite.
- Risk Management Ahead of Holidays: December 23 combines a high density of statistics with the onset of a low-liquid holiday period. Investors are advised to exercise caution: volatility may increase due to a reduced number of active participants. It is wise to proactively establish levels at which positions will be reassessed or hedged, utilize stop-loss orders to protect profits, and avoid excessive leverage. As the trading day concludes—and effectively the entire year—it is rational to secure results and rebalance portfolios to greet the New Year’s holidays without undue stress and with a well-thought-out plan for January 2026.
