Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of December 22-26, 2025: China's LPR Rate, U.S. GDP and Inflation, Macroeconomic Data from Europe and Russia, and the Impact of Christmas and Shortened Trading Sessions on Global Markets.
Weekly Overview for December 22-26, 2025: Key Events and Reports
The upcoming week is relatively shortened due to the holidays, yet several important events await investors. The focus will be on the People's Bank of China's decision regarding the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the final assessment of U.S. GDP for Q3, the PCE price index (a key inflation indicator in the U.S.), as well as Catholic Christmas and a new trade agreement between the EAEU and Indonesia. The corporate earnings season is practically winding down; major reports from companies across the U.S., Europe, Asia, or Russia are not expected, leading to a shift in focus towards macroeconomic statistics and geopolitical news. One significant event will be the signing of a free trade agreement between Indonesia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)—a step that strengthens economic ties between Southeast Asia and post-Soviet countries. Macroeconomic data and central bank decisions may reflect on the dynamics of global stock indices—from the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 to Nikkei 225 and the Moscow Exchange index—although market reactions may be muted due to low liquidity during the holiday season. Let’s take a closer look at each day's events and their potential impact on market conditions.
Monday, December 22, 2025: LPR Rate in China and UK GDP
At the start of the week, attention is focused on Asian and European indicators. Early in the morning, China will announce its decision regarding the key interest rate, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), setting the tone for financial conditions in the region. The UK will release the final GDP data for the third quarter, providing an assessment of economic growth ahead of year-end. No significant corporate reports are expected on this day, so market dynamics will depend on macroeconomic news. Additionally, a news item on Monday will be the signing of the free trade agreement between Indonesia and the EAEU countries, underscoring the strengthening of international economic integration.
- 04:15 MSK – China: LPR rate decision. No change is expected; any unexpected adjustment could impact the yuan, Chinese bank sector stocks, and set the tone for Asian markets.
- 10:00 MSK – UK: Q3 2025 GDP (Final Assessment). Preliminary data indicated moderate economic growth; revisions to the figure could affect the pound's exchange rate and the FTSE 100 dynamics.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (for November). This indicator reflects the overall dynamics of the U.S. economy; values near zero indicate average growth, while deviations could influence short-term investor sentiment.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This is a key inflation indicator for the Fed; a slowdown in price growth would reinforce expectations of a soft monetary policy, while rising inflation may raise concerns in the bond and equity markets.
Investor Takeaway: Monday begins without major upheavals—few economic events are expected, and global markets are likely to trade within a narrow range. The decision regarding the interest rate in China will likely confirm the current course of monetary policy, not prompting sharp movements in Asian markets. The UK's final GDP assessment is unlikely to surprise investors, serving as a background indicator for the European market. An important benchmark will be the PCE inflation index in the U.S.: moderate dynamics will maintain a positive sentiment, while an unexpectedly high figure could increase volatility even amid decreasing activity ahead of the holidays. The news of the EAEU-Indonesia agreement is primarily strategic and does not directly impact market prices in the short term, but it underscores the trend towards strengthening trade ties in the Eurasian space.
Tuesday, December 23, 2025: U.S. GDP and Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday will be the busiest day of the week in terms of macroeconomic statistics, especially in the U.S. Investors will receive a comprehensive block of data on the U.S. economy: from the labor market and industrial production to the final report on economic growth. The focus will be on the final assessment of U.S. GDP for Q3, which will confirm or adjust previous growth estimates, as well as data on durable goods orders and industrial production reflecting the state of the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the December consumer confidence index will be released, indicating household sentiment ahead of the holidays. Before the main trading opens, the Asia-Pacific region will be influenced by signals from Australia following the release of the RBA meeting minutes. As no major corporate reports are on the horizon, macroeconomic releases will dictate market movements on Tuesday.
- 03:30 MSK – Australia: minutes from the last RBA meeting. This document will clarify the regulator's assessment of the economic situation and inflation; any hints about future rate changes will impact the Australian dollar's exchange rate and market sentiment in Australia.
- 16:15 MSK – USA: ADP employment change (weekly indicator). An unofficial estimate of the U.S. labor market dynamics; stable employment will reassure investors, while rising claims for benefits or declining employment could heighten concerns about economic slowdown.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: durable goods orders for November. An important manufacturing indicator reflecting demand for durable goods (e.g., equipment and machinery). An increase in orders signals business confidence and supports stocks in the industrial sector, while a decline would indicate caution among firms regarding capital expenditures.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: housing starts for November. This indicator reflects activity in the construction sector: an increase in new builds suggests a healthy real estate market, while declines may signal cooling in the economy or caution among builders.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: GDP for Q3 2025 (final assessment). Confirmation of robust U.S. economic growth (around +3% year-on-year) is expected. Any significant revision of GDP growth rates could change market sentiment: stronger growth may boost risk appetite, while a downward adjustment could raise questions about the sustainability of the economic upswing.
- 17:15 MSK – USA: industrial production for November. Data will show the state of the industrial sector. Moderate increases in output indicate stability, while declining industrial activity could reinforce recession fears.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December. This indicator reflects American consumer sentiments ahead of the holidays: an increase in confidence will support retail stocks and the overall market, while a decline may signal more cautious consumer spending.
- 18:00 MSK – USA: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December. A regional leading indicator of industrial activity; strong values will bolster optimism in the industrial sector, while weak numbers will point to localized production issues.
- 00:30 MSK (already December 24) – USA: weekly API report on oil inventories. Unofficial data from the American Petroleum Institute on changes in crude oil inventories over the past week. A significant drop in inventories may push oil prices higher, indicating strong demand, whereas an increase could put downward pressure on oil prices.
Investor Takeaway: On Tuesday, markets will digest a large volume of economic information. Strong macro indicators from the U.S. (such as GDP growth above expectations or an increase in orders) may provide new momentum to the market and support stock index growth, strengthening confidence in the economy. At the same time, weak data—such as a decline in consumer confidence or a drop in industrial output—could lead to investor caution and asset reallocation to safety. The RBA’s minutes early in the morning will set the tone for the Australian market and commodity currencies, but the main influence of the day will shift towards the U.S. session. Overall, the lack of corporate reports means macro surprises will dictate sentiment: a positive statistical tone will support risk appetite, while a series of disappointing indicators could trigger profit-taking ahead of the long holiday weekend.
Wednesday, December 24, 2025: Bank of Japan Minutes and Unemployment Claims (Christmas Eve)
On Wednesday, the global markets enter Christmas Eve, leading to a decrease in trading activity. Several markets, including Germany, Switzerland, Brazil, and Argentina, will be closed the entire day, while trading sessions in the U.S., UK, Australia, and New Zealand will be shortened. Nevertheless, reports released on this day could locally influence market dynamics: early in the morning, the Bank of Japan will publish the minutes from its last meeting, offering insights into the regulator's sentiments, and during the U.S. afternoon, investors will watch for weekly unemployment statistics and oil inventory data. Additionally, important economic indicators for Russia for November are expected to be released. In a thin market, any reactions to news may be amplified by low liquidity; however, major movements seem unlikely due to the proximity of the holiday.
- 02:50 MSK – Japan: Bank of Japan minutes. The minutes from the Japanese central bank's meeting will reveal details of discussions on monetary policy. Investors will be looking for hints of potential changes to the BoJ's ultra-loose stance; any signals regarding plans for policy adjustments could impact the yen's exchange rate and Nikkei 225 dynamics.
- 16:30 MSK – USA: initial claims for unemployment benefits (week ending December 20). This weekly indicator reflects the state of the U.S. labor market and is published a day earlier than usual due to the holiday. A consistently low level of claims will affirm employment resilience and support confidence in the economy, while a rise in claims may raise concerns about a cooling labor market.
- 18:30 MSK – USA: official EIA oil inventory data. Weekly statistics from the Energy Information Administration regarding commercial oil and petroleum product inventories. A sharp decline in inventories will bolster oil prices, indicating high demand or reduced supply, whereas an increase could weaken the oil market. Volatility in the energy markets is possible, though many traders have already exited the markets ahead of the holiday.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: industrial production for November. This indicator reflects production levels in Russian industry. An acceleration in industrial production growth will indicate economic revival by year-end, while weak results may reinforce expectations of government and Central Bank of Russia stimulus measures.
- 19:00 MSK – Russia: consumer inflation for November (CPI index). This indicator reflects the inflation rate in Russia for the month; price dynamics are crucial for understanding the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. A slowdown in inflation will bolster expectations for policy easing (or maintaining rates), while an unexpected rise in prices may prompt discussions of the need for more stringent measures to curb inflationary pressures.
Investor Takeaway: Wednesday is marked by reduced activity and preparation for the holiday pause, yet several signals will still reach the markets. The Bank of Japan minutes may influence trading in Asia: any hints of policy changes could noticeably shift the yen's exchange rate and Japanese company stocks, although the BoJ traditionally takes a cautious approach. In the U.S., unemployment and oil data will provide fresh insights into economic conditions: a sharp deterioration in indicators could unsettle market participants, but given the pre-holiday sentiment, most investors are likely to disregard minor fluctuations. Russian statistical releases are locally significant—they will help assess the health of the Russian economy at year-end, but their impact on global markets is minimal. Overall, investors are advised to exercise caution: in a thin market, even small news items could provoke disproportionate price movements, making patience until after the Christmas holidays the day's main strategy.
Thursday, December 25, 2025: Catholic Christmas (Global Markets Closed)
Thursday marks Catholic Christmas, and the vast majority of global financial markets are closed. The exchanges in the U.S. and Europe (including the UK, Germany, France, and others), as well as various markets in Asia and Latin America, are closed due to the holiday. No trading sessions will take place on currency, stock, or commodity markets; no economic data releases or corporate reports are scheduled for this day. Investors worldwide are taking a break, and trading activity has come to a standstill.
Investor Takeaway: The complete halt of trading on December 25 means no market movements or news. Investors have this day to step back from market sentiment and reassess investment strategies away from the trading frenzy. It is advisable not to take any actions—the key decisions should be postponed until the exchanges reopen. The Christmas break traditionally serves as a time of low volatility, so there are unlikely to be any changes in portfolios on this day.
Friday, December 26, 2025: Boxing Day – Holiday in Europe, Calm Markets
On Friday, global markets gradually resume operations following Christmas, yet in several countries, it remains a holiday. December 26 is Boxing Day in the UK, Commonwealth countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, and others), and many European nations, so exchanges there remain closed. American markets, as well as exchanges in certain Asian countries, continue operating normally, but overall activity remains subdued. No significant macroeconomic publications or corporate events are scheduled, and investors in open jurisdictions are trading based on previously obtained information. Under the reduced number of participants, slight price fluctuations are possible, but without strong fundamental drivers.
Investor Takeaway: The concluding day of the week is relatively calm and inert. A reduction in active trading venues results in low trading volumes and neutral dynamics among major indices. In the U.S., where markets are open, there may be only localized movements influenced by the remaining macro data from the week—for example, investors could continue to react to the GDP or consumer confidence figures published on Tuesday. However, overall, Friday's session is characterized as technical: major players have already locked in results ahead of the holidays, and few are inclined to open new positions. Investors should focus on maintaining their portfolio balance before year-end: the current pause is an opportune moment to review the year's outcomes and prepare for potential volatility in January. After the holidays, global markets will enter the final week of the year, where movements may occur due to year-end book closings, so the calm on December 26 can be seen as the "calm before the storm" leading up to the final days of 2025.
