Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Wednesday, December 10, 2025: Fed Meeting, Bank of Canada Rate, Inflation in Russia

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on December 10, 2025. FOMC Meeting, Bank of Canada Decision, Inflation Data from China, Russia, and Brazil; Speeches by the Governor of the Bank of England and the President of the ECB; EIA Oil Inventories; and Results from Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Wednesday shapes up to be a busy agenda for investors: in Asia, the key release is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from China, which will confirm weak price pressure and likely maintain the People's Bank's accommodative policy; in the Middle East, attention is drawn to the first Russian-Emirati Business Forum in Dubai, highlighting the strengthening of bilateral partnerships; in Europe, market participants are following speeches from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and ECB President Christine Lagarde in search of new signals regarding monetary policy. The main event of the day will be the US Federal Reserve's meeting – its outcomes will set the tone for the dynamics of stock indices and currencies.

Additional factors include the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, the publication of November inflation data from Brazil (followed by a late meeting of Brazil's central bank), and statistics from the US Department of Energy on oil inventories. On the corporate front, a series of reports are expected: in the US, financial results will be presented by technology leaders (Oracle, Adobe, etc.) as well as several companies from retail and industry; in Europe, releases by travel holding TUI and retailer Metro are noteworthy; in Asia, chipmakers (e.g., TSMC) will publish trade updates; in Russia, Aeroflot will present its nine-month report. It is critical for investors to evaluate these events collectively: central bank signals ↔ bond yields ↔ currency rates ↔ commodity prices ↔ risk appetite in the markets.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. All day — UAE/Russia: First Russian-Emirati Business Forum (Dubai).
2. 04:30 — China: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November.
3. 13:45 — United Kingdom: Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
4. 13:55 — Eurozone: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
5. 15:00 — Brazil: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November.
6. 17:45 — Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
7. 18:30 — USA: EIA oil inventories (weekly statistics).
8. 18:30 — Canada: Bank of Canada press conference following the meeting.
9. 19:00 — Russia: Inflation rate (CPI, operational data for November, year-on-year).
10. 22:00 — USA: Federal budget for November.
11. 22:00 — USA: FOMC meeting (final decision on the Fed rate).
12. 22:30 — USA: Press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
13. 00:30 (Thu) — Brazil: Central Bank interest rate decision.

Geopolitics: Russian-Emirati Business Forum

• Dubai hosts the first Russian-Emirati Business Forum, aimed at strengthening economic partnerships between Russia and the UAE. The event is attended by over 200 delegates – representatives from major companies, investment funds, tech startups, and logistics operators from both countries. The forum comes amid rising trade and investment between Russia and the Emirates and may result in the signing of new agreements in industries such as energy, transportation, and others.

China: CPI and PBoC Policy

• Inflation in China is expected to remain around 0% year-on-year in November, reflecting weak consumer demand and deflationary pressure. The absence of price growth alongside recent declines in producer prices (PPI) enhances expectations that the People's Bank of China will maintain an accommodative monetary policy to support the economy. Any signs of a revival in inflation could reduce the need for new stimulus measures, but current indicators suggest the necessity for continued softness (low rates, liquidity injections) to boost domestic demand.

Europe: Signals from the Bank of England and the ECB

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver speeches that investors will closely analyze for further plans on interest rates. In the UK, inflation still exceeds the target level, but economic slowdown may compel the BoE to take a wait-and-see approach and hint at the possibility of a rate cut in 2026. Lagarde, for her part, is likely to reaffirm the ECB's commitment to the 2% target and a cautious stance: given the weakening growth in the Eurozone, the regulator may signal a prolonged pause in rate hikes. Any hints at changing tone (more "dovish" or "hawkish") could affect the EUR and GBP exchange rates as well as European bond markets.

USA and Canada: FOMC Meeting and Bank of Canada Decision

• The Federal Reserve is holding its final FOMC meeting of the year. Markets widely anticipate a 25 basis points rate cut (to a range of ~5.00-5.25%) amidst slowing inflation and signs of a weakening labor market. Investors will focus on the rhetoric from Fed Chair Jerome Powell: assessments of inflationary risks and hints at policy trajectory in 2026 will be critical. A softer tone (willingness for further policy easing) could weaken the dollar and support stock market growth, while maintaining caution ("hawkish" tones regarding inflation) may trigger short-term volatility and increase bond yields.
• The Bank of Canada is set to announce its rate decision: the regulator is expected to maintain the rate (current level around 2.25%) following a cycle of cuts throughout the year. Slowing economic growth and inflation approaching target levels allow the central bank to pause its easing. In the accompanying statement, market participants will seek signals regarding future plans – for instance, a readiness to resume rate cuts in the event of a stronger economic downturn. The Canadian dollar and bond market will react to the communication tone: a neutral message will reinforce current expectations, while an unexpectedly "dovish" stance (hinting at future stimulus) may result in additional declines in yields and weaken the currency.

Emerging Markets: Inflation in Russia and Brazil's Central Bank Decision

• In Russia, operational estimates for November inflation will show a year-on-year price growth of around 6%, exceeding the Bank of Russia's target benchmark (4%). Despite some slowdown compared to autumn peaks, inflationary pressure remains significant due to the ruble's depreciation and budget expenditures. November data is crucial for understanding price dynamics by the end of the year: if inflation does not slow down, the Bank of Russia is likely to maintain a tough stance and high rates at the upcoming meeting. For the ruble, persistently high inflation implies limited room for rate cuts, which may force the regulator to hold onto tight monetary conditions longer.
• In Brazil, the November CPI is expected to be below 5% year-on-year, continuing a trend of slowing price growth due to previous policy tightening. Amid declining inflation, the Central Bank of Brazil (Copom) is likely to cut the benchmark rate (current level around 9.25%) at the night meeting to support the economy. Markets have priced in expectations for a reduction of about 0.50 percentage points, making the regulator's comments on further steps key. Continuing the easing cycle in Brazil could support the local stock market and bonds but could create some pressure on the real.

Oil Market: EIA Inventories

• The weekly EIA report on commercial oil inventories in the US will provide fresh insights into demand and supply balance in the energy market. In previous weeks, inventory reductions were observed amidst revived demand and supply constraints from OPEC+, supporting oil prices. If this time the data shows a substantial inventory draw, oil prices will receive an additional upward impulse (heightening global inflation expectations). Conversely, an unexpected increase in inventories could cool the oil market rally. Traders and investors in the commodity sector are closely monitoring this indicator as the year concludes, when fuel demand is subject to seasonal fluctuations.

Results: Before Market Open (BMO, USA and Asia)

• Chewy (CHWY) — an American online retail company for pet products, is set to report before market opening. Focus areas include revenue and customer base growth in Q3, as well as average order value and margin dynamics of the e-commerce business amid high competition. Previous results from Chewy showed a double-digit sales growth (~9% year-on-year) and improved profitability; the market will be keen to see a continuation of this trend and hear management's forecast for the holiday season. Strong metrics could support the company's stock and the online retail sector, while slow revenue growth or poor forecasts could heighten investor caution.

Results: After Market Close (AMC, USA)

• Oracle (ORCL) — a leading provider of enterprise software and cloud services, will report for Q2 of the 2026 financial year after the US market closes. Investors are primarily interested in the dynamics of Oracle's cloud business (OCI — Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) and enterprise software sales. The company is banking on increased demand from AI projects and the expansion of its cloud portfolio. If the report confirms high growth rates for cloud services and profits, Oracle's shares and those of other tech giants may gain momentum. Conversely, weak results or cautious guidance could provoke a correction, given the recent rise in tech sector valuations.
• Adobe (ADBE) — a market leader in software (Creative Cloud, marketing solutions) presents Q4 results for the 2025 financial year. Key metrics include subscription revenue growth from cloud services (Creative Cloud, Document Cloud) and dynamics in the digital marketing segment. Amid advancements in generative AI technologies, investors are also awaiting comments on the integration of AI tools into Adobe products and the impact on customer attraction. Strong revenue growth and optimistic guidance will bolster confidence in Adobe's business model, while weakening demand from corporate clients could raise concerns regarding the company's high valuations.
• Synopsys (SNPS) — a developer of chip design software, will report financial results for the 2025 year. The semiconductor sector is experiencing increased demand for chips for AI and automotive electronics, which supports Synopsys' order portfolio. Investors will evaluate revenue and profit growth, as well as new deals with chip manufacturers. Robust performance from Synopsys will confirm that companies in the sector are actively investing in R&D despite macroeconomic uncertainty, which is positive for the entire high-tech segment. Conversely, weak results may induce a negative reaction, considering high expectations from the IT sector.
• Nordson (NDSN) — an industrial engineering company (dispensing and coating systems) will publish its Q4 report for 2025. Nordson's results will serve as a barometer for demand in the manufacturing industry: its equipment is used in the production of goods, packaging, and electronics. Analysts forecast stable revenue or a slight decline amid a slowdown in global industry, but improving operational efficiency may support margins. If profits exceed expectations through cost reductions, this will demonstrate the business's resilience; however, weak sales may indicate corporate clients' caution in spending.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): Among key European companies reporting on December 10 are TUI (travel holding) and Metro AG (retail/wholesale). While these releases are of interest, the overall sentiment in European markets will largely be determined by external factors – signals from the US Federal Reserve and commodity price dynamics, as well as comments from the respective central banks in the UK and Europe. The absence of surprises in corporate results and macroeconomic data will support the stability of the Euro Stoxx 50 index, while negative factors could increase volatility.
• Nikkei 225 (Asia): In Japan, the publication of financial results from major corporations on this day is limited (the main reporting season has concluded), so Asian investors are relying on external news. Nonetheless, trade updates from Taiwanese tech giants are noteworthy: TSMC and MediaTek will present November data reflecting the state of global semiconductor demand. Strong figures from TSMC (revenue growth due to AI chip demand) will support positive sentiment in Asian markets, while poor sales dynamics may indicate persistent cyclical risks in the industry and could pressure the electronics sector.
• MOEX (Russia): Among Russian issuers on December 10, Aeroflot stands out as it presents its financial results under IFRS for the first nine months of 2025. It is expected that the results of the airline are influenced by the recovery in passenger traffic and exchange rate changes. If Aeroflot shows confident revenue and profit growth, this will improve sentiment toward the airline sector and consumer stocks on the Moscow Exchange. Overall, activity in the Russian stock market may remain subdued in anticipation of key external events of the day (primarily the FOMC decision), which determine global investor risk appetite.

Summary of the Day: Key Takeaways for Investors

• 1) Fed Decision: The outcomes of the meeting and comments from Jerome Powell will be the main trigger of the day for all markets. The results of the FOMC will directly influence US Treasury yields, the dollar's exchange rate, and stock valuations (especially in the tech sector). Any deviation from expectations (e.g., more hawkish rhetoric or an unconventional decision on rates) could provoke a sharp reaction in stock indices and currency rates.
• 2) Inflation Data: The release of CPI in China, Russia, and Brazil will provide signals about global price trends. Low inflation in China confirms the absence of price pressure and affects sentiment in commodity markets, while figures from Russia and Brazil will show how successfully these economies are curbing price growth. It is essential for investors to compare inflation trends in developed and emerging markets with actions by respective central banks and interest rate outlooks.
• 3) Oil Factor: The statistics on oil inventories (EIA) could short-term shift energy prices, reflecting on oil and gas stock prices and the currencies of commodity countries (CAD, RUB). Given the impact of oil prices on overall inflation, a sudden surge or drop in oil quotes after the EIA data could change market expectations regarding further regulatory policies.
• 4) Corporate Reports: Financial results from giants like Oracle and Adobe, as well as other reporting firms, may locally shift the balance of power in specific industries. Strong reports from tech companies could pivot market focus from macro statistics to corporate stories, supporting growth in Nasdaq and adjacent sectors. However, disappointments in reports (below profit forecasts or weak guidance) threaten sell-offs in corresponding stocks even in the face of a positive external backdrop.
• 5) Day Volatility: Given the dense events of December 10, investors should prepare for potential sharp movements in advance. It is advisable to define key levels for their positions, utilize limit orders for entry/exit, and, if necessary, consider hedging part of the portfolio. This proactive approach to risk management will help navigate a day of loaded news more confidently.