Top 7 Token Unlocks (December 15-21, 2025) and Their Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

Analytical Review of Major Token Unlocks for the Week of December 15–21, 2025: Market Impact, Investor Risks, and Key Project Metrics

In the upcoming week from December 15 to 21, 2025, several prominent projects are scheduled for significant token unlocks, which may impact the dynamics of the entire cryptocurrency market. These projects include Aster, LayerZero, Arbitrum, Vana, Yooldo Games, STBL, and Merlin Chain. Below is an analysis of each case: when the unlock will occur, how many tokens will enter circulation (both in absolute terms and as a share of total supply), the current value of these tokens, and the potential impact of the unlock on price and liquidity. Such cryptocurrency analytics help assess risks and prospects—particularly relevant for those considering long-term investments in cryptocurrency.

For clarity, let's compare the key metrics of all seven projects in the table below:

Aster (ASTER)

Aster is a decentralized derivatives exchange offering spot and perpetual trading of cryptocurrency and equity contracts with leverage of up to 1001×. On Wednesday, December 17, 2025, Aster will unlock approximately 78.4 million ASTER (around 0.98% of the total token supply). At the current rate, this is equivalent to ~ $75 million—adding approximately 3% to the circulating supply of ASTER. Given the project’s market capitalization (in the range of several billion dollars), this volume is relatively small. However, if a significant portion of the unlocked coins enters the market immediately, there may be some profit-taking by recipients and a decrease in liquidity on trading platforms. Cryptocurrency investors should monitor the behavior of large holders: while the unlock volume is moderate, the Aster market is likely capable of absorbing it without prolonged price pressure.

LayerZero (ZRO)

LayerZero (ZRO) is an inter-network protocol that facilitates secure data and value transfer across different blockchains. On Saturday, December 20, 2025, the project plans to unlock approximately 24.68 million ZRO (about 2.47% of the total issuance), with a total value of ~ $37 million. This accounts for roughly 10% of the current market capitalization of ZRO, indicating a significant increase in circulating volume. Such an influx of tokens in a mid-cap project could lead to noticeable volatility: short-term holders may sell the new coins, exerting downward pressure on the price. However, the schedule for these unlocks has been known in advance, and the market has partially priced in this information. Importantly, LayerZero tokens are distributed among investors and the team according to a set schedule—if a considerable portion of recipients continues to hold their tokens or stakes them, the impact of the token unlock may be mitigated. Investors should closely monitor the movement of these tokens (e.g., transfers to exchanges) in the first days following December 20.

Arbitrum (ARB)

Arbitrum (ARB) is one of the leading layer-two solutions for Ethereum (based on optimistic rollups), enabling lower fees and faster transactions on the network. On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, there is an expected unlock of approximately 92.63 million ARB—around 0.93% of Arbitrum's total token volume, valued at about $19.8 million. This release corresponds to roughly ~2% of ARB's market capitalization, which is relatively modest. Since its launch in 2023, Arbitrum has already distributed a significant portion of its tokens through airdrops and gradual releases to investors; this current phase is a scheduled unlock for early investors and the team. Because the proportion of new coins is low, the outlook for cryptocurrencies with such emission levels is moderate: the ARB market will likely perceive this event calmly. High liquidity and broad availability of ARB on exchanges make it reasonable to expect that the cryptocurrency market will absorb the additional supply without issues. Nevertheless, short-term speculative fluctuations are not excluded—as with all unlocks, market participants should exercise caution around December 16 and observe the behavior of major ARB holders.

Vana (VANA)

Vana (VANA) is a layer-one blockchain focused on maintaining user control over personal data and its monetization (turning data into tokenized assets). According to plan, on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, the project will release VANA tokens worth approximately ~ $17.4 million—about 6.12 million VANA, which is equivalent to ~5.1% of the total issuance. The new coins will account for around 20% of current VANA capitalization, resulting in a notable increase in circulating tokens. Such a sharp increase in supply may create significant price pressure, especially if holders of the unlocked tokens decide to sell them immediately. On the other hand, a portion of these tokens may be earmarked for ecosystem initiatives (e.g., community rewards or user incentives), reducing the risk of a sudden market dump. Investors interested in cryptocurrency investments in the Vana project should prepare for increased volatility: a short-term price drop is possible if demand from new buyers does not keep pace with the increased supply. In such cases, it is vital to assess the project's fundamental metrics—sustained interest in Vana from users and partners may help the price recover after the initial supply shock.

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS)

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS) is a multi-chain Web3 gaming platform where users play games and earn tokens for their activities (play-to-earn), integrating mechanics from both traditional and blockchain games. On Friday, December 19, 2025, Yooldo will unlock approximately 41.91 million ESPORTS tokens (around 4.7% of the total issuance). Their total value is estimated to be about $17.2 million, representing approximately 26% of the current circulating token supply—a significant share. Nearly a quarter increase in supply at once may notably affect the market price: if new coins flood onto exchanges, a price drop due to supply-demand imbalances is likely. Investors holding ESPORTS have recently experienced increased volatility—the Yooldo token has seen double-digit declines in recent days in anticipation of the unlock and related speculation. The subsequent dynamics will depend on how actively the unlocked tokens are sold. If the project team or long-term supporters of Yooldo decide to retain a significant portion of the coins to support the ecosystem, the negative effect may be lessened. However, cryptocurrency investors should acknowledge the risks: without a proportional influx of new players or investors into the Yooldo platform, such a substantial increase in supply could lower token prices in the short term.

STBL

STBL is a relatively new decentralized stablecoin protocol aiming to combine transparency, yield, and backing by real assets (the "Stablecoin 2.0" concept). Its governance token STBL was launched in the fall of 2025, and now a period of active monthly unlocks begins. On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, the protocol will release approximately 288.39 million STBL tokens—2.88% of their total maximum supply. At current prices, the volume of the unlock is valued at about $16.1 million. It should be emphasized that this is an extremely large increase in supply: it is comparable to ~58% of STBL's market capitalization at present. In other words, if there are currently 100 units of value in circulation, nearly 58 more will be added. Such a sharp expansion of circulation typically leads to strong downward pressure on the token price, especially if unlocked coins become immediately available for sale. However, the STBL team has informed the market in advance about their unlocking schedule and the purposes for utilizing the new tokens. A significant portion of these coins may be intended not for immediate sale but to incentivize liquidity and reward ecosystem participants (such as stablecoin collateral providers). Nevertheless, STBL holders should be prepared for spikes in volatility: while the mechanism and outlook for this protocol's cryptocurrency undergo verification by the market, caution is warranted. Monitoring the activity of large addresses (particularly tracking whether the new tokens are directed to exchange accounts) will help timely assess sentiment and actions of large players.

Merlin Chain (MERL)

Merlin Chain (MERL) is a blockchain project developing a Bitcoin-native Layer-2: a second-layer network built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain to enhance throughput and implement smart contracts in the Bitcoin ecosystem. On Friday, December 19, 2025, Merlin Chain will unlock approximately 36.14 million MERL—around 1.72% of the total token supply, equivalent to about $16.1 million. This volume of new coins represents about 4% of MERL's current capitalization—a relatively small figure within the context of the week's unlocks. For Merlin Chain, this is a scheduled quarterly distribution of tokens to project investors and advisors, occurring amidst increased activity on the network (the project is gaining attention as a promising L2 platform for Bitcoin). Despite the moderate share, the sudden appearance of an additional 36 million coins may lead to short-term price fluctuations. If some recipients decide to take profits, sales could momentarily drop the MERL price in the days immediately following the unlock. On the other hand, due to the relatively small size of the unlock and positive expectations surrounding Merlin Chain, the market may quickly absorb these tokens. For investors holding MERL, a rational strategy will be to monitor the order book and sentiment: if high interest in the project persists (especially from institutional partners testing Bitcoin-L2 solutions), the impact of the unlock could be minimal and short-lived.

Summary and Recommendations for Investors

Throughout the week of December 15–21, hundreds of millions of tokens (over half a billion units in total) will be unlocked across seven different projects. Such events inevitably attract the attention of market participants as they increase supply and may temporarily depress prices, ceteris paribus. The overall effect depends on the proportion of new tokens relative to those already in circulation: substantial unlocks (as seen with STBL or Yooldo) carry a greater risk of a one-time price drop, whereas smaller allocations (like those of Arbitrum or Merlin Chain) are typically easier for the market to assimilate. Nevertheless, forecasts concerning cryptocurrencies with planned unlocks should always consider holder behavior: if token recipients prefer to hold or utilize them within the ecosystem (staking, liquidity, etc.), the negative price impact will be limited.

Cryptocurrency investors are advised to proactively plan their strategies around major unlock dates. This entails:

• Monitoring the token unlock calendar and assessing what proportion of the total and circulating supply is entering the market.

• For significant percentages (double digits or higher)—considering risk hedging measures or partial profit-taking before the event to avoid falling into potential sell-offs.

• Analyzing the fundamental metrics of the project: strong projects with an active user community and in-demand products often weather unlocks without long-term damage, while weak projects may see increased downward trends due to the influx of supply.

• Monitoring on-chain data immediately post-unlock. If substantial volumes of new tokens are transferred to exchanges, this signals potential selling pressure; conversely, if tokens remain on wallets or move into staking, the market is likely to view this positively.

In conclusion, diversification and disciplined risk management remain the best protection for investors. Unlock events are known in advance, and the market often "prices in" their effects ahead of time. However, the reaction is not always predictable: the impact of token unlocks can range from neutral to sharply negative in the short term. Based on our analysis, investors should remain vigilant and use such events as opportunities to reassess their positions. Thoughtful planning and timely cryptocurrency analytics will help navigate the wave of new tokens, maintaining a balance between risks and growth potential in the dynamic cryptocurrency market.