Main Points as of July 29, 2026: Numbers that Shape the Agenda
Below are the key indicators around which the current market discussion revolves:
- $510 billion — global venture investments in the first half of 2026; Q1 contributed $305 billion, with Q2 adding another $205 billion across over 5,000 companies.
- 43% — the share of two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, in the global venture financing volume for the half-year ($217 billion in total).
- Over 70% — the share of AI startups in global venture investments in the second quarter, compared to around 50% a year earlier.
- $412.7 billion — venture investments in the U.S. for the half-year, with $355.9 billion (86%) going to AI companies.
- $251 billion — raised during 86 American IPOs since the beginning of the year, more than five times the total for all of 2025 ($47.4 billion).
- $113 billion — the volume of startup acquisitions priced at over $1 billion in the second quarter, a record in history.
- 5.09 billion rubles — the volume of the Russian venture market for the half-year, down 40% year-on-year with a twofold decrease in the number of deals.
Half-Year Record: Why $510 Billion Does Not Mean "The Market Has Returned"
The record volume of venture financing has not arisen from an expanded funnel but rather from a few gigantic rounds. The number of deals in the first half of the year has hardly increased, and in Asian markets, the number of transactions has even dropped to a multi-year low despite record amounts. In other words, the average check has exponentially increased while access to capital has narrowed.
Late-stage financing in the second quarter added about 141% year-on-year. This marks a significant shift in the behavior of venture funds: capital is not flowing into expanding the portfolio of new names but into recapitalization of already established leaders. For managers, this means a more predictable but less asymmetric return profile; for LPs, it indicates an increase in correlation among funds with different strategies.
Capital Concentration: The Main Risk of the Agenda
The situation in which two companies absorb 43% of the world's venture capital for the half-year has no historical analogs. Additionally, there is a geographic imbalance: about 88% of all investments in AI startups are concentrated in companies headquartered in the U.S. At the same time, the U.S. share of the total amount in the second quarter has decreased from 83% to 66-67% — capital is simultaneously concentrating by sectors and internationalizing by geography.
For investment committees, this creates three practical questions:
- How diversified is the fund's portfolio if the majority of the sector's returns are determined by a few private companies?
- How to evaluate “second-tier” AI startups if the valuation benchmarks are set by rounds of unprecedented scale?
- What will happen to the multipliers for the entire sector if even one of the leaders disappoints the public market?
End-of-July Deals: Where the Money Went
The last decade of July provided a representative snapshot of the priorities of venture funds. The most notable funding rounds include:
- Etched — $300 million, Series C, inference chips, lead Sequoia.
- CuspAI — $450 million, Series B, AI for material development (Kleiner Perkins, NEA).
- Meshy — around $400 million, Series B, 3D content generation.
- Glow — $180 million, Series A, cybersecurity (Sequoia, Cyberstarts).
- Cathedral — $160 million, defense cyber AI (Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia).
- Humanoid — $152 million, Series A at a valuation of $1.35 billion; the first European "unicorn" in humanoid robotics.
- Neo — $100 million out of “stealth,” application security in the era of AI agents.
Earlier in July, the market saw even larger transactions: $1.8 billion for defense company Helsing, $1 billion for SambaNova Systems, $800 million for Together AI, $700 million for medical tech platform Neko, and €411 million for thermonuclear project Proxima Fusion. The overall conclusion is that venture capital is financing not so much applications as the “operating system” of the new economy — computing, energy, security, and robotic manufacturing infrastructures.
Physical AI, Defense, and Deep Tech: A New Map of Priorities
Three themes are shaping the investment mood for the second half of 2026. The first is physical AI: models connected to hardware, from construction robots to industrial perception. The second is defense and sovereign technologies, where European startups are competing with American ones in check sizes for the first time in a decade. The third is energy for data centers: thermonuclear, geothermal, and network projects are financed as an infrastructure rather than a venture asset class.
It is also notable that cybersecurity has become a derivative of the spread of AI agents: investors are financing companies that tackle problems created by generative models themselves. This is a sustainable “second-order” pattern, and it will remain a source of deals at least until the end of the year.
IPO Window 2026: Open, but Not for Everyone
The primary placement market is experiencing the strongest comeback since 2021. By the end of July, the U.S. had hosted 86 IPOs with a total volume of $251 billion; global revenues for the half-year reached $178 billion (+205% year-on-year) across 524 deals. Technology placements on average saw a 44.5% increase on the first day of trading, with the total valuation of companies in the IPO pipeline surpassing $2.1 trillion.
However, the structure of this record is as concentrated as that of venture capital. The placement of SpaceX with a volume of $85.7 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion accounted for about one third of all funds raised this year. Anthropic applied on June 1 following a round of $65 billion, while OpenAI confidentially applied on June 8 with a private valuation of $852 billion. Strava is preparing for a placement with a valuation of approximately $2.2 billion. Simultaneously, Databricks publicly rejected listing in 2026 in favor of 2027, discussing a private round at a valuation of $165–175 billion compared to $134 billion six months earlier. Canva and Cohere are currently viewed by the market as candidates for 2027.
M&A and Exits: The Best Quarter in Five Years
For the first time since 2021, the dynamic of exits has caught up with the dynamic of financing. In the second quarter, 32 companies went public with valuations above $1 billion, and another 24 were acquired for at least $1 billion for a total of $113 billion — a record in history. For venture funds, this means unlocking DPI: distributions to LPs have finally begun to return to levels where a full cycle of re-subscription to new funds is possible.
Nonetheless, the quality of exits remains uneven. Major strategic acquisitions are concentrated in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and biotech, while the classic mid-sized SaaS is still emerging at a discount compared to rounds from 2021.
Fundraising and Dry Powder: Capital Exists, But Access Is Limited
On a global level, private markets hold about $3.9 trillion in unallocated capital, with around $600 billion specifically earmarked for venture funds. However, the share of successfully closed funds has dropped to about 57% from 94% in 2020 — LPs have become noticeably more selective and prefer established platforms over new managers.
A practical consequence for the market: the gap between “top-quartile” and other funds continues to widen, as emerging managers increasingly pursue deals through syndicates, SPVs, and joint investments with large platforms.
Russia and the CIS: The Market in a State of Rigid Selection
The Russian venture market is moving in the opposite phase to the global one. For the first half of 2026, venture investments amounted to 5.09 billion rubles — 40% less than the previous year. There were 50 deals made, half the figure for the first half of 2025, with an average check of 113.2 million rubles. The largest volume of investments went to artificial intelligence and machine learning — the sector focus aligns with global trends, but the scale does not.
Industry analysts compare current metrics to levels from 2009-2011. The logic of financing has structurally changed: with a high key rate, the deposit and debt markets compete with venture returns, therefore investors demand confirmed revenue, positive unit economics, and a clear path to profitability from startups, rather than just a “promising idea.” The main sources of capital remain corporate venture, industry funds, and club syndicates.
Conclusions for Venture Investors and Funds
The agenda as of July 29, 2026 boils down to four main theses:
- Record ≠ Broad Market. The aggregated $510 billion masks a narrowing funnel: capital is available to category leaders, not the average startup.
- Concentration Is a Standalone Risk. Portfolios whose returns depend on a handful of AI leaders require stress testing under scenarios of disappointing debuts from any of them.
- The Exit Window Is Open, but Selectively. Companies with valuations of $2–5 billion, stable revenues, and proximity to profitability have a real chance to capitalize on the current IPO cycle.
- Infrastructure Bets Outperform Applied Ones. Computing, energy, security, and physical AI provide a more protected position than applications built on top of others’ models.
The market has entered a phase where excess capital coexists with limited access to it. For venture funds and institutional investors, this means a return to fundamental discipline: quality selection, evaluation discipline, and sober liquidity planning — regardless of how impressive the headline figures of the half-year may seem.
