Headline of the Day: Anthropic Prepares for Historic Listing
The central event of the autumn for the venture market remains Anthropic's preparations for its initial public offering. The developer of the Claude model family, which confidentially filed its S-1 application with the SEC on June 1, is reportedly holding meetings with institutional investors and may launch the offering in late September to early October. The book runners are Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, with the target exchange being Nasdaq.
Following its Series H round, the company's private valuation reached approximately $965 billion, while annual recurring revenue is estimated by analysts to be between $47 and $80 billion — largely due to its dominance in the AI coding segment. For the venture industry, this listing will not just be an exit: the multiple assigned to Anthropic by the public market will become a fundamental benchmark for valuing all private AI companies for years to come.
OpenAI Shifts Focus: Lab Race Postponed to 2027
Major competitor OpenAI filed its own S-1 application a week later but is leaning towards postponing its listing until 2027. The reasons for this include market volatility and the leadership's intention to go public at a valuation of no less than $1 trillion. Over the past year, Anthropic has surpassed its rival in both revenue and private valuation for the first time, while OpenAI has undergone a series of personnel changes in top management. For investors, this means that the public "AI premium" will be calibrated based on Anthropic's debut, while OpenAI will enter the market with several quarters of audited reporting.
Record Capital Concentration: Mid-Year Figures
Statistics for 2026 are rewriting the entire history of the venture industry. Key indicators are as follows:
- Global venture investments reached $300 billion in the first quarter alone — an absolute record, accounting for 70% of all investments in 2025;
- Investments in startups in the U.S. and Canada for the first half of the year totaled $392 billion;
- Four of the five largest venture rounds in history closed in 2026: OpenAI ($122 billion), Anthropic ($30 billion), xAI ($20 billion), and Waymo ($16 billion);
- Capital is being distributed among an increasingly narrow circle of companies — growth is driven by massive rounds rather than an increase in the number of deals.
The market has adopted a pronounced "barbell" structure: elite startups attract mega-rounds, strong early teams receive funding quickly and at high valuations, while the mid-market is experiencing a deficit of investor attention.
IPO Window Open: Autumn Sprint After Labor Day
The initial public offering market is experiencing its best period in several years: by the end of May, over $34 billion had been raised through IPOs — 164% more than a year earlier. Following the successful debut of SpaceX and a strong year for biotech, investors are anticipating a busy autumn calendar. A notable example is the defense segment: shares of AI-drone manufacturer Swarmer skyrocketed by over 500% on their first trading day. For venture funds, an open exit window means the opportunity to secure profits and return capital to partners — a critically important factor after several years of accumulated "overhang" from mature portfolio companies.
Defense Technology: From Niche Bet to System-Forming Sector
The defense segment has firmly established itself as the second most significant sector of the venture market after AI. Key events from the past few weeks include:
- Anduril Industries is negotiating a new round at a valuation of around $100 billion — more than three times last year's level; the company's revenue doubled to $2.2 billion in 2025.
- European leader Helsing raised $1.8 billion at an $18 billion valuation — investor demand significantly exceeded the available allocation.
- Global investments in defense and dual-use technologies are ahead of schedule and may exceed $18 billion by the year's end.
The priority for 2026 is not invention but scaling production: investors are increasingly funding manufacturing capabilities rather than solely software platforms.
Deals of the Week: From Generative 3D to Space Launches
The first days of September brought a series of notable rounds reflecting the industry's capital diversification:
- Tripo AI, a developer of generative AI 3D models from San Francisco, closed Series B and B+ rounds totaling approximately $446 million with participation from a broad pool of Asian and American funds;
- Félix from Miami announced a Series C funding of $200 million with a significant debt component — signaling the growing role of hybrid capital structures;
- The German space startup HyImpulse raised over €50 million in a Series A expansion with a backlog of orders exceeding €350 million;
- The Spanish biotech iPremom secured €15 million in seed investments for its early pregnancy complication diagnostic platform;
- Tokyo-based PeopleX closed Series A at ¥5.45 billion, developing a sovereign AI platform for HR processes.
Beyond AI: Capital Seeks the "Physical World"
A notable trend in recent months has been the shift of some venture capital into tangible assets: sports clubs, iconic real estate, consumer goods manufacturing, and energy for data centers. Investors are diversifying their bets, unwilling to fully rely on the dynamics of AI valuations. Sustainable interest remains in climate technologies, longevity biotech, robotics, and fintech — segments where the next generation of unicorns is forming with more predictable unit economics.
Russia and CIS: Transformation Amidst Global Boom
The Russian venture market is moving in counterphase to the global trends: the volume of deals has decreased by approximately 40%, large late-stage rounds have virtually disappeared, and seed investments have fallen by a factor of three in both volume and deal count. Investors have definitively shifted from funding "promising ideas" to stringent requirements regarding revenue and clear financial models. Priority is given to projects in AI, corporate software, and fintech; however, experts warn of a "demographic gap" in startups that will emerge in 2027–2028 due to the depletion of companies ready for acquisition.
What This Means for Investors: Conclusions and Forecast
The venture market is entering autumn 2026 in a state of record activity, but also record risk concentration. Anthropic's debut will set a public benchmark for the entire AI economy: a successful offering could open the floodgates for dozens of listings in 2027, while a weak start could trigger a reevaluation of the entire private AI portfolio. For funds, key guiding principles remain discipline in valuations, diversification beyond the AI core, attention to defense and infrastructure assets, and readiness to utilize the open IPO window for exits. The market rewards not the loudest ideas, but proven revenue, cost control, and clear positioning — and it is this logic that will determine capital distribution in the last quarter of the year.
