Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Saturday, December 6, 2025: Dynamics of Oil and Gas Prices, Inventories, Sanctions, Renewables, Coal, Exports, Production, Analysis for Investors and Energy Companies.
The current events in the fuel and energy sector (FES) as of December 6, 2025, reflect a multifaceted dynamics on global markets against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tension. Global oil prices remain near multi-month lows: Brent crude is trading around $62–63 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is at approximately $59. These levels are significantly lower than mid-year figures, explained by a combination of factors—from expectations of progress in peace negotiations to signs of oversupply in the market. In contrast, the European gas market is approaching winter with confidence: gas storage facilities (GSFs) in EU countries are over 85% full, providing a solid buffer, and wholesale prices (TTF index) are kept below €30 per MWh, which is significantly lower than the peak values of previous years.
Nonetheless, geopolitical confrontations in the energy sector persist. The collective West continues to escalate sanctions against the Russian energy sector—the European Union has recently legally approved a phased refusal of imports of Russian pipeline gas by 2027 and accelerated reductions in remaining oil supplies from Russia. Diplomatic attempts to resolve the conflict have not yielded tangible results so far, which means that restrictions and risks of supply disruptions remain. Within Russia, authorities are extending emergency measures to stabilize the internal fuel market after a gasoline and diesel shortage in the fall, strictly limiting petroleum product exports. Simultaneously, global energy is accelerating its "green" transition: investments in renewable sources are hitting records, with new incentives being implemented, although traditional resources—oil, gas, and coal—still play a key role in the energy balance of most countries. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors on this date.
Oil Market: Prices at Minimums Under Pressure from Oversupply and Hopes for Peace
As December begins, global oil prices remain under pressure, fluctuating around local minima. The North Sea Brent crude oil, after a relatively stable autumn, has dropped to ~$62 per barrel, while WTI futures are at $59. Current prices are approximately 15% lower than last year's levels. The market is partially pricing in a scenario of eased sanctions on Russian oil should peace negotiations between Moscow and Washington succeed, which has lowered the geopolitical risk premium in prices. At the same time, concerns about oversupply are growing: industry data shows an increase in global crude oil and fuel inventories, while a seasonal drop in demand at year-end and a slowdown in the Chinese economy limit consumption. The OPEC+ oil alliance confirmed at its meeting on November 30 that current production quotas would remain in place at least until the end of 2026, signaling a reluctance to increase supply and risk a price collapse. As a result, the combined influence of these factors has shifted the market balance toward oversupply. Prices remain low while market participants assess the prospects for a potential peace agreement and OPEC+'s further actions in response to changing circumstances.
An additional sign of oversupply has been Saudi Arabia's decision to lower the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to its lowest level in the past five years for Asian customers. This move aims to strengthen Saudi Arabia's competitive position in the Asian market, although the simultaneous maintenance of limited OPEC+ production somewhat offsets the oversupply pressure, preventing prices from falling further.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Comfortable Reserves and Stable Prices
The European natural gas market is entering the peak heating season without significant disruptions. Thanks to timely filling of storage and a mild start to winter, EU countries are meeting December with record-high gas storage levels and relatively low prices, reducing the risk of a repeat of the 2022 crisis. The main factors determining the current situation in the European gas market include:
- High GSF Filling Levels: According to industry monitoring, average gas storage levels in the EU exceed 85%, significantly ahead of typical figures for the beginning of winter. The accumulated reserves create a reliable "safety cushion" in case of prolonged cold spells or supply disruptions.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers continue to actively purchase liquefied natural gas on the global market. The reduced demand for LNG in Asia has freed up additional volumes for Europe, partially compensating for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia. As a result, LNG inflows remain high, helping to keep prices at moderate levels.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Mild weather at the beginning of winter and energy-saving measures are suppressing gas consumption growth. At the same time, the EU is diversifying supply sources: imports of gas from Norway, North Africa, and other regions have increased, strengthening energy security and reducing dependence on Russian raw materials.
- Price Stabilization: Wholesale gas prices are now several times lower than last year’s extreme highs. The Dutch TTF index is maintained around €28–30 per MWh. High storage fill rates and market balancing have allowed for the avoidance of new price spikes, even amid a sharp reduction in gas imports from Russia.
Thus, Europe is entering winter with a significant buffer in the gas market. Even in the event of a cold snap, the accumulated reserves and flexible LNG supply chains can mitigate potential shocks. However, in the long term, the situation will depend on weather conditions and the dynamics of global demand—especially if Asia's energy needs start to rise again amid economic recovery.
Russian Market: Fuel Shortages and Export Restrictions Extended
In the fall of 2025, Russia faced a heightened problem of motor fuel shortages (gasoline and diesel) on the internal market due to a combination of factors. An increase in seasonal demand (the harvesting campaign boosted fuel consumption) coincided with a reduction in supply from refineries (several refineries cut output due to unplanned repairs and drone attacks on fuel infrastructure). In several regions, gasoline supply disruptions arose, forcing the state to intervene rapidly to stabilize the situation. Authorities introduced emergency measures, which continue to be in effect:
- Ban on Gasoline Exports: The Russian government imposed a temporary complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline by all producers and traders (except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements) back in late August. Initially, this measure was intended to last until October, but it has since been extended until at least December 31, 2025, due to persisting tensions in the internal fuel market.
- Export Restrictions on Diesel: At the same time, the export of diesel fuel by independent traders has been banned until the end of the year. Oil companies with their own refineries are allowed limited diesel exports in order to prevent processing from halting. This partial ban is intended to ensure a sufficient supply of petroleum products within the country and to prevent a recurrence of shortages.
According to officials, the fuel crisis that arose in the fall is local and temporary in nature. Reserve stocks were utilized to address it, and oil refining is gradually recovering after unplanned downtime. By the beginning of winter, the situation has stabilized somewhat: wholesale diesel and gasoline prices have retreated from the peaks seen in September (including in the first days of December, exchange rates for gasoline decreased by another 5–7% compared to the level of the previous week). While fuel in the domestic market is still more expensive than a year ago, the government's priority is to completely meet the country's needs and prevent any new surge in prices. If necessary, strict export restrictions may be extended into 2026 if required to maintain stability.
Sanctions and Politics: Increased Pressure from the West Amid Attempts at Dialogue
Western countries continue to tighten their policies towards the Russian FES, showing no readiness to ease sanctions. On December 4, EU leaders finalized a plan for a complete and indefinite cessation of imports of Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2026 (with termination of Russian LNG purchases by 2027) as part of a new sanctions package. This step aims to deprive Moscow of a substantial portion of export revenues in the medium term. Traditional proponents of this initiative, Hungary and Slovakia—who depend on Russian gas—were unable to block the overall EU decision.
Simultaneously, the United States is ramping up its own pressure. The Trump administration has taken a hard stance on countries cooperating with Russia in the energy sector. In particular, Washington imposed increased 25% tariffs on a range of Indian goods in 2025, partially in response to New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil and has signaled a review of the easing of sanctions on Venezuela. These moves increase the uncertainty around future Venezuelan oil supplies to the global market.
Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington to cease conflict have not yielded significant progress—recent consultations in Moscow involving American emissaries ended without breakthroughs. Hostilities in Ukraine continue, and all previously imposed restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources remain in effect. Western energy companies continue to avoid new investments in Russia. Thus, geopolitical tension surrounding energy persists, adding long-term risks and uncertainty to the market.
Asia: India and China Strengthening Energy Security
The largest developing economies in Asia—India and China—continue to focus on securing their energy security, balancing the benefits of cheap imports with external pressure. Countries in the region are actively taking advantage of opportunities to purchase energy resources on favorable terms while simultaneously developing domestic projects and international cooperation. The current situation in these two key countries is as follows:
- India: Under pressure from the West, New Delhi temporarily reduced purchases of Russian oil in late autumn; however, India remains one of Moscow's main clients. Indian refineries continue to process discounted Urals oil, covering domestic fuel needs and directing surpluses of petroleum products for export. President Vladimir Putin's state visit to India on December 4–5 highlighted the close ties between the countries. At the summit on December 5 in New Delhi, the parties discussed and highly appreciated extensive cooperation in the energy sector, signing an "important package" of documents aimed at deepening the partnership. In the joint statement, Russia confirmed its readiness to continue ensuring uninterrupted fuel supplies for India's rapidly growing economy and expand cooperation in the areas of oil, gas, petrochemicals, coal generation, and nuclear energy. Additionally, Russia aims to increase imports of Indian goods to balance trade despite U.S. sanctions pressure (including high tariffs on Indian exports due to cooperation with Russia in the oil sector).
- China: Despite an economic slowdown, Beijing retains key significance in the global energy market. Chinese companies are diversifying import channels: new long-term contracts for purchasing liquefied natural gas (including from Qatar and the U.S.) are being concluded, pipeline gas supplies from Central Asia are expanding, and investments in overseas oil and gas production are increasing. Simultaneously, China is gradually increasing its own hydrocarbon production, although this is still not sufficient to fully cover domestic demand. The country also continues large coal purchases to secure its energy system during the transition period. Both India and China are actively investing in renewable energy development; however, they do not intend to abandon traditional sources—oil, gas, and coal—which still form the basis of their energy balance in the coming years.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments Supported by Governments
The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate, setting new records for investments and capacity additions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2025 global investments in renewable sources exceeded $2 trillion—more than twice the combined investments in the oil and gas sector during the same period. The main flow of capital is directed towards the construction of solar and wind power plants, as well as associated infrastructure—high-voltage networks and energy storage systems. At the COP30 climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to accelerated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and significant capacity increases for renewables by 2030. To achieve these goals, a set of initiatives has been put forward:
- Accelerating Permitting Procedures: Reduce processing times and simplify the issuance of permits for construction of renewable energy facilities, network modernization, and the implementation of other low-carbon projects.
- Expanding Government Support: Introduce additional incentives for "green" energy—special tariffs, tax benefits, subsidies, and government guarantees to attract more investments and mitigate business risks.
- Financing the Transition in Developing Countries: Increase international financial assistance for emerging market economies to accelerate the adoption of renewables where domestic resources are insufficient. Targeted funds are being established to reduce costs for "green" projects in the most vulnerable regions.
The rapid growth of renewable energy is already leading to significant changes in the global energy balance. According to analytical centers, non-carbon sources (renewables together with nuclear generation) now account for over 40% of electricity generation worldwide, and this share is steadily increasing. Experts note that while short-term fluctuations may occur due to weather factors or spikes in consumption, the long-term trend is clear: clean energy is gradually displacing fossil fuels, bringing about a new low-carbon era.
Coal: High Demand Supports the Market, but the Peak Has Passed
Despite efforts for decarbonization, the global coal market in 2025 remains near record levels. Global coal consumption is being maintained at historically high levels—around 8.8–8.9 billion tons per year, slightly exceeding last year's figure. Demand continues to grow in the developing economies of Asia (especially in India and Southeast Asian countries), compensating for the reduction of coal use in Europe and North America. According to the IEA, in the first half of 2025, global coal consumption even slightly decreased due to increased electricity generation from renewables and mild weather; however, a slight growth (~1%) is expected by the end of the year. Thus, 2025 will become the third consecutive year with near-record levels of coal burning.
Coal production is also increasing—particularly in China and India, which are ramping up domestic production to reduce import dependence. Prices of thermal coal remain stable overall, as high Asian demand maintains market balance. Nevertheless, analysts believe that global coal demand has reached a "plateau" and will transition to a gradual decline in the coming years as the development of renewables accelerates and climate policies tighten.
