Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News as of November 20, 2025: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, Sanctions, Production, Renewables, Coal, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector.
Global Oil Prices: Decline Amid Peace Prospects
Global oil prices have seen a decline following reports of possible progress in peace negotiations regarding the armed conflict in Ukraine. On November 19, Brent crude prices fell approximately 2.8% (to ~$63 per barrel), while U.S. WTI dropped by 2.9% (to ~$59 per barrel) by midday. Investors reacted to news of a U.S. peace initiative, reviving hopes for an end to hostilities. The prospect of agreements diminishes the geopolitical premium on oil prices and shifts the market's focus to fundamental demand-supply factors, which currently indicate an oversupply situation.
Even prior to these developments, oil prices were under pressure due to fears of overproduction. Last week, Brent and WTI lost around 4% amid signals of future market surpluses. A brief uptick in prices on Tuesday reverted to a downward trend on Wednesday, solidifying the bearish outlook. Analysts suggest that if military risks to oil supplies diminish, the market will focus on the current supply-demand balance, which shows signs of an oversupply.
Risks of Oil Oversupply and OPEC+ Actions
Fundamental indicators of the oil market point to a likely oversupply in the coming months. Multiple industry organizations have revised their forecasts, signaling potential market saturation by 2025–2026:
- OPEC and IEA Estimates: The November report from OPEC indicates that the global oil market may encounter an oversupply by 2026 (earlier expectations were of a deficit). The International Energy Agency also noted an acceleration in production growth, which is likely to lead to an oversupply of oil reserves.
- U.S. Production: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that U.S. oil production will reach a historical maximum by the end of 2025, further strengthening global supply.
Against this backdrop, the OPEC+ alliance is gradually increasing production after a prolonged period of limitations. Since April 2025, the cartel has shifted tactics from cutting production to gradual increases, aiming to regain lost market share and prevent price surges. This autumn, OPEC+ countries raised their combined quota by approximately +137 thousand barrels per day in October and another similar increase in November, lifting previously voluntarily held volumes. However, many participants of the agreement are already operating at full capacity, causing the actual supply increase to lag behind the announced figures.
Nevertheless, OPEC+'s current policy aims to ease the market — largely influenced by pressure from the administration of Donald Trump, which demands lower energy prices.
Sanctions and Oil Market Restructuring
Geopolitical factors continue to impact the oil industry. New U.S. sanctions imposed in October against major Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil will take effect on November 21, which is expected to gradually reduce Russian oil export volumes. Several buyers in China and India have already begun to reject these companies' crude, shifting to alternative suppliers.
Russian officials assert that the sanctions have not yet significantly impacted production levels. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, oil production in Russia remains stable, and the new restrictions have not reduced output volumes. He also emphasized that Russia has compensated for earlier quota excesses under the OPEC+ agreement and does not plan to voluntarily cut production beyond established agreements.
Experts note that the impending peace negotiations could potentially pave the way for a softening of the sanctions pressure. The U.S. has already signaled a readiness to reconsider restrictions with progress in conflict resolution. A gradual de-escalation of geopolitical tension could eventually allow a return to freer oil trade.
It should be noted that the sanctions regime and military risks have already affected the global petroleum products market. In particular, recent restrictions and drone strikes on Russian refineries have led to a surge in gasoline prices in the U.S. to their highest levels since 2022. Thus, conflicts and sanctions influence the entire chain — from oil production to fuel prices for end consumers.
Russian Oil Production and Domestic Market
Despite external pressure, Russia is gradually increasing oil production. According to Alexander Novak, by the end of 2025, the country anticipates fulfilling its OPEC+ quota (approximately 9.5 million barrels per day). By November, production approached this level (in October, the shortfall from the quota was about 70 thousand b/d), and Moscow maintains an annual production forecast of around 510 million tons.
Russian oil companies have fully compensated for earlier excess production under the OPEC+ agreement and do not plan to voluntarily reduce output beyond the established quota. In other words, additional production cuts from Russia are not currently anticipated.
The domestic fuel market has stabilized by November. Government-imposed export restrictions on petroleum products, seasonal demand declines, and the return of refineries (refineries) from maintenance have saturated the market. Wholesale and retail gasoline and diesel prices, which surged in September, have returned to normal levels. Fuel companies have restored regular supplies to gas stations, and authorities continue to monitor prices to prevent a new shortage.
Natural Gas Market: Europe and the U.S.
- Europe: Gas prices in Europe have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly a year and a half. In mid-November, futures at the TTF hub fell to ~$364 per 1,000 m3 amid weak demand and ample liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Mild weather and high storage levels allowed the EU to enter the winter season without price shocks. Despite Europe's shift away from Russian gas, some volumes under long-term contracts are still being supplied, although their share is steadily decreasing. Experts predict that by the second half of 2026, a global LNG surplus will develop, further pushing down prices.
- U.S.: In the United States, conversely, the era of cheap gas has ended — prices have reached a three-year high. The Henry Hub index surged to ~$162 per 1,000 m3, marking a record since 2022, due to a sharp increase in LNG exports (exceeding 0.5 billion cubic meters per day) and rising domestic demand with the onset of colder weather. Expensive gas is already forcing several utility companies to switch to coal generation to manage costs and meet electricity needs.
Coal Sector and Power Generation
The global coal market has remained relatively stable by the end of 2025 after periods of sharp fluctuations. In Europe, energy coal prices fell to a four-year low in the autumn but regained some ground with the onset of the heating season. Early cold spells temporarily increased coal usage for electricity generation in October, although the overall trend towards decarbonization remains unchanged.
In the U.S., rising natural gas prices have had the opposite effect: energy companies increased the load on coal power plants, interrupting years of declining coal market share. While this is a temporary phenomenon related to fuel price dynamics, it underscores the importance of diversifying energy sources for system reliability.
In China, there has also been a sharp increase in coal consumption in the autumn. A combination of cold weather in the north and abnormally hot conditions in the south of the country triggered a spike in electricity demand, which had to be met by increasing generation at coal-fired power plants (amid a temporary decline in renewable energy generation). This led to higher domestic coal prices and highlighted how significantly weather conditions affect energy production.
Despite these short-term spikes, the long-term outlook for the coal industry remains subdued. The anticipated oversupply of natural gas by 2026 and extensive renewable energy infrastructure development are expected to limit coal usage growth. Investors are increasingly cautious about coal projects, focusing on low-carbon development goals.
Renewable Energy and Climate Goals
Renewable energy sources (RES) continue to strengthen their position in the global energy balance. The United Kingdom recently announced a significant offshore wind project: the consortium EDP Renewables (Portugal) and Engie (France) has secured rights to build a floating offshore wind farm with a capacity of 1.5 GW in the Celtic Sea off the coast of Wales. This project aims to accelerate the decarbonization of the UK's energy sector: by 2030, London plans to increase the installed capacity of offshore wind farms to 50 GW and virtually eliminate fossil fuels from generation.
Other countries are also increasing their investments in RES, viewing them as a way to enhance energy security and reduce dependence on fuel imports amid oil and gas price volatility.
Industry organizations, however, urge against creating a shortage of traditional resources during the transition period and advocate for sufficient investments in oil and gas to avoid new price spikes. At the same time, scientists warn that CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 2025 are set to break records, complicating the achievement of climate goals. In the lead-up to the UN climate summit COP30, governments and energy companies are under pressure to strengthen environmental regulations. The balance between meeting the growing energy demand and fulfilling environmental commitments is becoming a key challenge for the entire fuel and energy complex.
