Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News for Saturday, February 7, 2026: Oil, Gas, Energy, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, Electricity, and Key Events in the Global Energy Market.
As of early February 2026, the situation on the global oil and gas market is shaped by opposing factors: an oversupply of commodities and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Western countries continue to intensify sanctions against energy exports from Russia (with the price cap on Russian oil reduced to $44.1 per barrel from February), while key importers such as India are revising their procurement strategies under external diplomatic pressure. At the same time, oil prices remain relatively stable (Brent at around $68 per barrel) due to expectations of an oversupply. The European gas market is experiencing winter without frenzy, despite rapidly depleting gas stocks in storage facilities, aided by mild weather and high LNG supplies. Concurrently, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy capacity is hitting records, although traditional resources—oil, gas, and coal—continue to play a crucial role in global energy supply. This review presents the current trends in the fuel and energy sector (oil, gas, petroleum products, electricity, coal, renewables) as of February 7, 2026.
Oil Market: Oversupply Amid Sanctions
At the start of February, oil prices stabilized after moderate gains: North Sea Brent is trading around $68 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is around $64. The market balances between oversupply and geopolitical risks. A significant oil surplus is expected in the first quarter of 2026—according to IEA estimates, global supply may exceed demand by ~4 million barrels per day. Simultaneously, supply disruption threats (Iran, Venezuela, and others) prevent prices from dropping significantly below current levels. Several factors are influencing the situation:
- Increased Production and Slowing Demand. The OPEC+ alliance, after a prolonged period of restrictions, increased production in 2025, but by early 2026, it halted further quota increases. Nevertheless, outside OPEC, supply is rising: the U.S., Brazil, and other countries have reached record oil production levels. Concurrently, global oil demand growth is slowing amid a restrained global economy: China's economy is expected to grow around 5% in 2026 (down from more than 8% in 2021–2022), while high interest rates in the U.S. and Europe limit consumption. The IEA predicts global oil demand to increase in 2026 by only ~0.9 million barrels per day (in comparison, growth exceeded 2 million in 2023).
- Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks. In early February, another tightening of sanctions came into effect: the EU and the UK reduced the price cap on Russian oil to $44.1 per barrel (from $47.6), aiming to cut Russia's oil revenues. Concurrently, the threat of supply disruptions from problematic regions remains. The U.S. has taken a tougher stance toward Iran, not ruling out forceful measures against its oil infrastructure; political turmoil in Venezuela temporarily curtailed exports; drone attacks and accidents in Kazakhstan reduced production at certain fields. All these factors increase the risk premium in the oil market, partially offsetting pressure from oversupply.
- Reconstruction of Export Flows. Major Asian consumers are adjusting their oil import structure. India, which recently imported over 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil, has begun reducing these supplies under Western pressure: in January 2026, the volume dropped to ~1.2 million barrels per day—the lowest in nearly a year. Although New Delhi does not plan to completely refuse Russian hydrocarbons, the reduction in imports is forcing Moscow to redirect exports to other markets, primarily to China. Chinese refineries are increasing purchases of Russian crude at reduced prices, strengthening the energy partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Gas Market: Decreased Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February, the European gas market remains relatively calm, although underground gas storage (UGS) facilities are quickly depleting as winter progresses. Gas stocks in Europe fell to ~44% of total capacity by the end of January—this is the lowest level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the ten-year average (~58%). Nevertheless, a mild winter and stable supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) help avoid shortages and price shocks. Gas futures (TTF index) remain at moderate levels, reflecting market confidence in resource availability. Several key trends define the situation:
- Depletion of Stocks and Need for Replenishment. Winter consumption leads to a rapid decrease in gas volumes in storage. If current trends continue, UGS in the EU may only be filled to ~30% by the end of March. To raise stocks to comfortable levels of 80-90% before next winter, European importers will need to inject approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas during the inter-season. Achieving this task requires maximizing purchases during the warm months, especially since a significant portion of imported gas is used immediately for current consumption. The market faces a challenging task of replenishing underground reserves by autumn—this will be a serious test for traders and infrastructure.
- Record LNG Supplies. The decline in pipeline supplies is compensated by unprecedented imports of liquefied natural gas. In 2025, European countries purchased around 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% compared to the previous year), and in 2026, imports are expected to reach 185 billion cubic meters. The increase in purchases is supported by expanding global supply: new LNG plants in the U.S., Canada, Qatar, and other countries are leading to a rise in global LNG production by approximately 7% this year (the highest growth rate since 2019). The European market is counting on getting through the heating season with high LNG purchases, especially since the European Union has committed to completely halt the import of Russian gas by 2027, which will require replacing ~33 billion cubic meters annually with additional LNG volumes.
- Eastern Export Reorientation. Russia, having lost the European gas market, is increasing supplies to the east. Gas flow volumes through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China have reached record levels (close to the design capacity of ~22 billion cubic meters per year), while Moscow is accelerating negotiations for the construction of a second pipeline through Mongolia. Russian producers are also increasing LNG exports to Asia from the Far East and the Arctic. However, even with the eastern direction, total gas exports from Russia have significantly decreased compared to pre-2022 levels. The long-term reconfiguration of gas flows continues, solidifying a new global gas supply map.
Petroleum Products and Refining Market: Increasing Capacities and Stabilization Measures
The global market for petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and others) at the beginning of 2026 demonstrates relative stability after a period of upheaval. Demand for motor fuels remains high due to the recovery of transportation and industrial activity. At the same time, increases in global refining capacities ease the provision of this demand. Following shortages and price peaks in recent years, the situation with gasoline and diesel supply is gradually normalizing, although disruptions are still observed in certain regions. The main characteristics of the sector include:
- New Refineries and Increased Refining. Large refining capacities in Asia and the Middle East are being commissioned, which increases total fuel output. For example, the modernization of Bahrain's Bapco refinery expanded its capacity from 267,000 to 380,000 barrels per day, and new plants have begun operations in China and India. According to OPEC, the global refining potential is expected to increase by approximately 600,000 barrels per day annually in 2025-2027. The growth in petroleum product supply has already led to a reduction in refining margins compared to record levels in 2022-2023, alleviating price pressure for consumers.
- Price Stabilization and Local Disbalances. Global average gasoline and diesel prices have retreated from peaks, reflecting the decrease in oil prices and increased supply. However, local spikes are still possible: for instance, winter frosts in North America temporarily raised demand for heating fuel, while in some European countries, a premium on diesel remains due to adjustments in logistics chains following the embargo on Russian deliveries. In several cases, governments are employing smoothing mechanisms—from reducing fuel excise taxes to releasing part of strategic reserves—to keep prices in check during sudden spikes in demand.
- State Regulation to Ensure Market Stability. In some countries, authorities continue to intervene in the fuel market to stabilize supply. In Russia, following the fuel crisis in 2025, export restrictions on petroleum products remain: the ban on gasoline and diesel exports for independent traders has been extended until summer 2026, and oil companies are permitted only limited foreign shipments. Concurrently, the price damping mechanism has been extended, under which the state compensates refineries for the difference between domestic and export fuel prices, encouraging supplies to the domestic market. These measures have alleviated gasoline shortages at gas stations, although they underscore the importance of manual market management. In other regions (for example, in some Asian countries), authorities are also resorting to temporary support measures—such as tax reductions, subsidizing transportation, or increasing import supplies—to mitigate the effects of sharp fluctuations in fuel prices.
Electricity Sector: Rising Consumption and Network Modernization
The global electricity sector is experiencing accelerated demand growth, accompanied by significant infrastructure challenges. According to IEA estimates, global electricity consumption is expected to grow by more than 3.5% per year over the next five years—significantly outpacing the overall growth in energy consumption. Key drivers include transportation electrification (growing electric vehicle fleet), economic digitalization (expansion of data centers, AI development), and climatic factors (increased use of air conditioning in hot climates). After a period of stagnation in the 2010s, electricity demand is again rising even in developed countries. At the same time, energy systems require substantial investments to maintain reliability and connect new capacities. Key trends in the electricity sector include:
- Modernization and Expansion of Networks. Increasing loads on networks necessitate modernization and construction of new transmission lines. Many countries are launching programs for network upgrades, accelerated construction of power lines, and digitalization of energy flow management. According to IEA data, over 2500 GWs of new generation capacities and large consumers worldwide are awaiting connection to power grids—bureaucratic delays are measured in years. Overcoming these “bottlenecks” is becoming critically important: forecasts indicate that annual investments in electricity networks must increase by 50% by 2030, otherwise generation growth will outpace infrastructure capabilities.
- Supply Reliability and Energy Storage. Energy companies are implementing new technologies to maintain stable electricity supply during record loads. Energy storage systems are rapidly developing—industrial battery farms with growing capacity are being built in California and Texas (USA), Germany, the UK, Australia, and other regions. These batteries help balance daily peaks and integrate uneven renewable generation. Concurrently, network protection is being enhanced: the industry is investing in cybersecurity and upgrading equipment, considering risks associated with declining reliability due to extreme weather, infrastructure wear, and cyberattack threats. Governments and electricity generation companies worldwide are directing significant resources toward enhancing the flexibility and resilience of energy systems to prevent blackouts amidst an increasing dependency of the economy on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. The year 2025 was record-breaking for the commissioning of renewable energy sources (RES)—primarily solar and wind power plants. According to preliminary IEA data, in 2025, the share of RES in the total electricity generation volume worldwide reached parity with coal (around 30%), while nuclear generation also reached a record level. In 2026, clean energy production will continue to grow at an accelerated pace. Global investments in the energy transition are hitting new highs: according to BNEF estimates, more than $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects in 2025 (+8% compared to 2024). Governments of leading economies are strengthening support for green technologies, viewing them as a driver of sustainable growth. The European Union has introduced stricter climate goals requiring rapid deployment of zero-emission capacities and reforms to the emissions market, while the U.S. continues to implement incentive packages for renewable energy and electric vehicles. However, the rapid development of the sector is accompanied by certain challenges:
- Material Shortages and Rising Project Costs. Burgeoning demand for RES equipment has led to price increases for critically important components. In 2024-2025, record quotes were recorded for polysilicon (a key material for solar panels), as well as noticeable increases in prices for copper, lithium, and rare earth metals necessary for turbines and batteries. Rising costs and supply chain disruptions have sometimes slowed the implementation of new RES projects and reduced the profitability of producers. However, by the second half of 2025, prices for many materials stabilized due to increased production and measures taken to resolve bottlenecks.
- Integration of RES into Energy Systems. The growing share of solar and wind power plants imposes new requirements on energy systems. The variable nature of RES generation necessitates the development of backup power capacities and storage systems for balancing—from fast-reserve gas turbines to industrial batteries and pumped storage power plants. The electricity grid infrastructure is also being modernized to transmit energy from remote RES locations to consumers. The accelerated development of these areas is expected to help curb CO2 emissions: according to IEA forecasts, even with rising electricity consumption, global emissions from the electricity sector could remain at mid-2020s levels if low-carbon capacities are introduced timely and sufficiently.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia amid Transition Away
Global coal consumption remains at historically high levels, despite efforts to decarbonize the economy. According to IEA data, in 2025, global coal demand increased by 0.5% to approximately 8.85 billion tons—a new record. It is expected that in 2026, coal consumption will remain close to this level with a slight decrease (essentially plateauing). The growth in coal burning is concentrated in the developing economies of Asia, while Western countries are systematically reducing their use of this fuel. The coal industry is witnessing the following trends:
- Asian Demand Supports Production. Countries in South and East Asia (China, India, Vietnam, and others) continue to actively utilize coal for electricity generation and in industry. For many developing economies, coal remains an accessible and important resource providing baseload generation. During peak consumption periods (for instance, during extremely hot summers or harsh winters), coal-fired power plants help meet maximum load levels when renewable sources and gas generation cannot cope. Sustained demand in Asia supports high production volumes in the largest coal-producing countries, temporarily alleviating pressure on the industry.
- Transition Away from Coal in Developed Countries. Concurrently, developed economies are accelerating the transition away from coal generation. In the EU, U.S., U.K., and other countries, the decommissioning of old coal-fired power plants continues, and restrictions have been imposed on the launch of new projects. Announced government targets include the complete elimination of coal from electricity generation within the coming decades (with the EU and U.K. aiming for the 2030s). International climate initiatives are also intensifying pressure: financial institutions are pulling back on financing coal projects, and at UN negotiations, countries are committing to gradually phase out coal capacities. These trends are likely to limit long-term investments in the coal sector and complicate development plans for companies.
- Ambiguous Business Prospects. For coal mining companies, the current situation is dual-edged. On one hand, high demand (primarily in Asia) ensures record revenue and short-term opportunities for modernization investments. On the other hand, strategic prospects are deteriorating: new projects carry the risk that in 10-15 years, coal will lose a significant portion of the market. A stringent environmental agenda increases uncertainty—companies are compelled to factor gradual diversification into their strategies. Many players in the sector are reinvesting their current super-profits into adjacent directions (metallurgical raw materials, chemical production, renewables) to prepare for a diminishing role of coal in future energy balances.
Forecast and Perspectives
Overall, the global fuel and energy complex is entering 2026 with contradictory signals. The oil market balances between expected oversupply and ongoing geopolitical threats, which are likely to keep prices within a relatively narrow range without sharp spikes (assuming no unforeseen circumstances). The gas sector faces the challenge of replenishing stocks in Europe after winter: historically low UGS levels mean that the main intrigue of the year will be whether importers can secure sufficient volumes of LNG and gas from alternative sources to restore stocks by autumn.
Energy companies (oil and gas and electricity sectors) and investors continue to adapt to the new reality. Some oil and gas corporations are increasing production and modernizing refineries to take advantage of current demand for traditional energy resources, while others are more actively investing in renewables, networks, and energy storage, focusing on long-term decarbonization trends. The volume of investments in renewable energy is already comparable to those in the fossil sector, but satisfying growing global demand still heavily relies on maintaining a significant share of oil and gas. For investors and market participants, the main challenge is to balance strategies to leverage cyclical opportunities in the oil and gas market while not missing out on the benefits of the energy transition. In the coming months, the industry's attention will be focused on the decisions made by OPEC+ and regulators, successes in scaling up RES and building infrastructure, as well as macroeconomic factors (economic growth rates, inflation, and central bank policies) which will depend on the dynamics of energy demand. The global energy market remains dynamic and ambiguous, requiring companies and investors to exhibit flexibility and a long-term vision amidst constant changes.
