Oil and Gas News and Energy: Friday, September 11, 2026 — Brent rises above $102 after largest tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, gas in Europe exceeds €80
The global fuel and energy sector enters Friday, September 11, 2026, in a state of full price shock. Brent oil is trading above $102 per barrel for the first time since late May, the European gas benchmark TTF has surpassed €80 per MWh for the first time since January 2023, and underground gas storage in the EU is only two-thirds full compared to a seasonal norm of over 80%. The trigger was the largest wave of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since the onset of the war, which also saw a second front open in the Red Sea. For investors, oil and fuel companies, refinery operators, and participants in gas, coal, electricity, and renewable energy markets, the key question of the day is: how much more geopolitical premium can the global economy absorb before demand for energy carriers begins to collapse.
Key Topic of the Day: The Tanker War in the Strait of Hormuz Reaches a New Level
On Wednesday night, the U.S. sank five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near the island of Kharg as part of the "tanker-for-tanker" policy announced by Washington in early September. Tehran responded with attacks on ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and a missile strike on the U.S. base in Al-Azraq, Jordan. According to maritime monitors, at least one crew member from a tanker has been reported dead, and another is missing. This marks the largest series of strikes on commercial shipping since the war began on February 28.
The physical picture for the oil and gas market is deteriorating in three directions:
- Expansion of the exclusion zone. The IRGC has declared a maritime restricted zone from Chabahar across the Gulf of Oman to the Arabian Sea, urging tanker crews off the coasts of Bahrain and Kuwait to immediately abandon their vessels.
- Insurance and freight. New incidents effectively nullify the availability of war risk coverage for vessels taking "unauthorized" routes, cementing transit through the strait at minimal levels.
- Environmental risk. Damaged and partially submerged tankers in the Persian Gulf pose a threat to desalination plants and coastal infrastructure of Gulf countries.
Oil: Brent Above $102, WTI at $96 — the Market is Rewriting Price Expectations
Key oil market benchmarks as of Friday morning:
- Brent (November contract, ICE): rose by 3.4% on Wednesday to $101.21, and reached $102.4–102.9 at its peak on Thursday — the highest since May 22. The yearly peak of $126.41 (April 30) remains a benchmark for a "bearish" scenario regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
- WTI (October contract, NYMEX): has stabilized in the range of $96–97 per barrel.
- Forecasts: The September review by the U.S. Department of Energy projected an average Brent price around $90 in the second half of 2026 and a decline to $74 in 2027 — figures that appear outdated just two days after publication given the current quotations. Long-term models from several Asian banks suggest prices of $113–114 in 12 months.
Stocks and Physical Balance
Global oil stocks, according to the U.S. regulator, have decreased by approximately 400 million barrels since the beginning of the year, and a recovery of production in the Middle East to pre-war levels has been pushed back to the second quarter of 2027. The U.S. strategic reserve stands at about 286.6 million barrels, the lowest since the early 1980s. Commercial oil stocks in the U.S. prior to the postponed Thursday weekly report totaled 424.5 million barrels with refinery utilization at 98%; distillate stocks are 14% below the five-year average and are forecasted to fall below 100 million barrels by September.
OPEC+ and Monthly Reports
Seven OPEC+ countries at the meeting on September 6 kept the October quotas unchanged after six consecutive months of production increases; the next meeting is set for October 4. The monthly OPEC report released on Thursday provides a framework for demand after the August downgrade in the 2026 consumption growth forecast to 0.58 million bpd. The International Energy Agency expects global demand to decline by 1.6 million bpd amidst a deficit of 1.8 million bpd in the third quarter and 8.3 million bpd of production in the Gulf, which remains halted.
Red Sea: Houthi Strikes on the Jazan Refinery Open a Second Front for Oil Exports
While the market was focused on Hormuz, Yemeni Houthis launched a series of strikes using drones and missiles against the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan, with a capacity of 400,000 bpd, as well as storage facilities in Jazan and Abha on September 7–8. The plant is halted, and the coalition led by Riyadh has promised to "respond to the sources of threat." Concurrently, Houthis are engaged in battles near the port of Mocha, closing in on the Bab-el-Mandeb coastline.
The significance of this front for global energy cannot be overstated: following the closure of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia redirected exports via the East-West pipeline to the Yanbu terminal, through which over 90% of the kingdom's maritime shipments were routed in June. The embargo declared by the Houthis has forced Asian shipments to be rerouted through the Suez Canal, extending the voyage by roughly 30 days and increasing freight costs. The threat to Yanbu poses a risk to the last major bypass for Middle Eastern oil.
European Gas Market: TTF Above €80, Storage at 67% — Worst Winter Start in 15 Years
Front month TTF futures traded on Thursday at €80.3–80.8 per MWh (about $985 per thousand cubic meters), exceeding €80 for the first time since winter 2023. Since the onset of the conflict, prices have increased by approximately 150%, and more than 120% since the beginning of the year. The British NBP approached 200 pence per therm. Drivers of this growth include:
- attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and the continued halt of LNG exports from Qatar;
- expansion of the JKM–TTF spread, drawing spot shipments to Asia;
- record low reserves: as of September 9, EU gas storage is filled to 67.33% (71.87 billion cubic meters), compared to a five-year average of around 84%.
Country-level disparities remain critical: Germany — about 53%, Austria — 67%, France — 71%, Italy — 83%. European operators are injecting gas at record rates, but at the highest prices in four years. Conversely, the U.S. market saw Henry Hub drop below $2.8 per MMBtu — transatlantic arbitrage for U.S. LNG exporters has reached historic proportions.
LNG and Coal: Atlantic and Coal Power Generation Fill the Qatari Gap
Damages to the Ras Laffan complex have knocked out about 17% of Qatar's export capacity, with full recovery projected to take up to five years, resulting in an estimated loss of around $20 billion in annual revenue. About 15 fully loaded LNG tankers are idle outside Hormuz, with two more loading in the port — the market interprets the return of empty vessels home as a possible preparation for the resumption of shipments, but without transit through the strait, it remains a signal rather than a delivery.
For the coal sector, the LNG crisis presents an unplanned demand window. The volume of switching from gas to coal in Europe and Asia is estimated at 40–60 million tons; coal generation in South Korea has increased by nearly 40%, and in Japan by more than 11%. Newcastle prices remain around $130 per ton, supported by disruptions in Indonesian supplies, while global coal demand in 2026 could grow by about 3% — reaching 9.1 billion tons.
Refined Products and Refineries: Refining Margins Rise, Russia Manually Controls the Domestic Market
The global market for middle distillates remains the tightest segment: shortages of diesel and jet fuel in Asia and Europe keep crack spreads at multi-year highs, while planned autumn maintenance at U.S. refineries temporarily reduces supply. The shutdown in Jazan removes over 200,000 bpd in diesel and naphtha exports from the market.
In Russia, the domestic refined products market operates manually:
- The total ban on gasoline exports has been extended until January 31, 2027, with the sale norm on exchanges reduced to 10% (of which 8% are targeted transactions), effectively leaving the open market with about 2% of production;
- Exchange indices are paradoxically declining despite the shortages: the average price of Ai-92 on the SPbMTSB on September 8 was 69.2 thousand rubles/ton, and Ai-95 was 71.8 thousand rubles/ton with a trading volume of 11.6 thousand tons per session — three times lower than the norm;
- The reason is delays in shipment based on exchange contracts for months due to refinery shutdowns following drone attacks; the price gap between baselines has reached 25 thousand rubles/ton;
- The deficit is compensated by marine imports of gasoline from India, amounting to up to 400 thousand tons per month.
Electricity and Renewable Energy: The Energy Transition as the Only Predictable Trend
Amidst the raw material chaos, a structural shift in the energy sector is accelerating. Global electricity demand is set to rise by 3.6% in 2026, driven by data centers, electric transportation, and air conditioning, while renewable sources are surpassing coal in global generation for the first time. Solar generation is adding around 600 TWh and is moving to second place behind hydropower. However, short-term vulnerabilities persist: in Europe, wind's share at the beginning of the week dropped below 15% of demand, directly translating into rising gas and electricity prices. Each euro increase in TTF enhances the economics of storage, grid investments, and long-term contracts for "green" electricity.
Calendar: What Energy Market Participants Should Watch on Friday
- The market's reaction to the monthly OPEC report and the postponed weekly U.S. Department of Energy statistics on oil, gasoline, and distillate stocks.
- U.S. inflation data for August: the raw material shock increases the likelihood of tightened rhetoric from the Fed, which curbs speculative demand for oil.
- Statements from the coalition on Yemen and any signals about the status of the Yanbu terminal.
- Dynamics of injection into European gas storage and the JKM–TTF spread as indicators of competition for spot LNG.
- Weekly results on the SPbMTSB and decisions by Russian regulators on exchange norms and fuel imports.
Conclusions and Risks for Investors and Energy Sector Companies
- Oil. The $100 level has transformed from resistance to support; the range of scenarios for the quarter spans from $85 in the event of de-escalation to $120 in the case of new attacks on vessels and Red Sea infrastructure.
- Gas. Europe enters the heating season with historically low storage levels; in a cold winter, TTF prices above €90–100 per MWh become a baseline rather than a stress scenario.
- Coal. North-East Asia and parts of Europe will maintain elevated coal consumption until Qatari LNG recovers — at least until spring 2027.
- Refined products and refineries. Crack spreads support the margins of refiners outside conflict zones; in Russia, profits are being redistributed from independent gas stations to vertically integrated companies.
- Renewables and electricity. A long-term capital shift towards solar and wind generation, storage, and networks remains the only sustainable investment idea amidst geopolitical volatility.
The day’s conclusion for the global oil and gas sector: two maritime chokepoints — Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb — are simultaneously under fire, and their conditions, rather than OPEC+ quotas or macro statistics, will determine oil, gas, and electricity prices in the coming weeks. For energy market participants, scenario planning, diversification of supply logistics, and hedging discipline are critically important.
