Oil and Gas News and Energy, Wednesday, December 3, 2025 — OPEC+ Implements Capacity Audit, Oil Prices Decline

Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy as of Wednesday, December 3, 2025: OPEC+ Decisions, Oil Price Dynamics, Gas Market Situation, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Refineries and Oil Products. Analysis for Investors and Energy Market Participants.

Oil Market

• Global Oil Market: An oversupply and active increases in production are putting pressure on prices. Brent is trading around $63/barrel, close to its lowest levels in two years.
• OPEC+: At the latest OPEC+ meeting, a moderate oil production increase was agreed upon for December (+137,000 barrels per day from November levels), while maintaining a pause for further increases at the start of 2026.
• USA: Oil production in the US continues to rise, with output in the Lower 48 states reaching a record 11.4 million barrels per day in July 2025. While the efficiency of drilling is increasing, the number of active rigs is declining.
• Transportation: Last week, Ukrainian drones damaged a pier on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in the Black Sea, but oil transportation has already resumed through another docking point.

Gas Market

• European Stocks: European gas storage facilities are approximately 75–80% full, supporting a calm atmosphere in the market. January TTF futures have fallen to historically low levels of ~€28/MWh ($335/thousand m³), aided by mild weather and excess fuel supplies.
• LNG Supplies: Liquefied gas exports from the US and Australia are actively increasing. A record number of gas tankers are noted to be en route globally. Meanwhile, demand in Asia is slowing: China is reducing its own LNG purchases and even reselling excess quantities, further stabilizing the European market.
• Russia – China: Gazprom is breaking records in gas supplies to China: on December 1, the "Power of Siberia" project transported over 100 million m³ in a single day for the first time, with annual volumes planned to reach 44 billion m³. The increase in "Power of Siberia" supplies is diminishing China's reliance on LNG and affecting the global gas balance.
• Transit and Negotiations: Consultations continue regarding the extension of gas transit through Ukraine beyond 2024 and discussions on energy relationships between Russia and the EU. Market participants expect that final agreements on gas may impact supply structures in Europe in 2026.

Electricity and Renewables

• Infrastructure Investment: At the COP30 climate conference, major global utilities announced plans to increase spending on the energy transition to a record ~$148 billion annually. Approximately $66 billion per year will go toward new renewable energy sources, while around $82 billion will be allocated for building networks and energy storage.
• Renewable Growth: Installed capacity for green generation is actively increasing. Many countries set annual records for new solar and wind power installations in 2025 (for example, India added over 25 GW of new capacity in the first seven months). Accelerated growth in renewables keeps CO₂ emissions levels in check.
• Decarbonization: The final document from COP30 reaffirmed commitments to the Paris Agreement but did not introduce a direct phase-out of oil and coal. Meanwhile, individual countries are tightening environmental policies: South Korea announced its entry into the Powering Past Coal alliance and promised not to build new coal-fired power plants, planning to retire 40 of its 61 existing plants by 2040.
• European Strategy: The EU maintains its course toward energy independence. Ambassadors have agreed on a plan for a complete cessation of imports of Russian oil and gas by 2028, as well as an embargo on purchases of Russian LNG starting in 2027. Simultaneously, member states must ensure that their gas storage facilities are at least 90% full by November 2027.

Coal Sector

• Asian Demand: In Southeast and South Asian countries, coal remains the primary source of electricity. Long-term contracts and a rapidly growing industry sustain high coal consumption volumes, though the share of renewable sources is gradually increasing.
• China: The world's largest coal consumer is showing signs of stabilizing demand. Plans are in place to restrain the growth of coal generation—new power plants are being constructed more slowly, and several provinces are imposing restrictions on coal projects. This has already reflected in the slowing growth of CO₂ emissions.
• Carbon Transition: Some countries are officially announcing their phase-out of coal. For instance, South Korea joined the Powering Past Coal alliance, renounced the construction of new coal-fired plants, and promised to close most of its existing coal power stations by 2040.

Oil Products and Refineries

• Fuel Demand: Global consumption of diesel and jet fuel continues to rise (boosting distillate fractions), while gasoline demand remains relatively weak due to increased transport energy efficiency and slowing economic growth.
• Refinery Operations: Many large refineries in Asia and the Middle East are operating at near-full capacity to meet domestic demand and fuel exports. European refineries are running above capacity, utilizing alternative sources of oil (e.g., Azerbaijani or Kazakhstani), compensating for restrictions on Russian oil.
• Margins and Projects: Refining margins remain uneven: low oil prices limit profitability amid raw material oversupply, but diesel shortages support the profitability of distillate refineries. New capacity expansion projects are underway in Asia and the Middle East, while investment in refineries in some developed countries is constrained due to the transition to renewables and stringent environmental regulations.

Companies and Investments

• Russian Issues: Gazprom Neft is preparing to issue ruble bonds worth up to 20 billion rubles with a floating coupon tied to the key rate. The Russian Ministry of Energy has approved the investment program of RusHydro for 2026, with total financing remaining at the previously planned level.
• Market Deals: International companies are ramping up diversification. ExxonMobil is in negotiations with the Iraqi government to acquire Lukoil's stake in the large West Qurna-2 field, as Lukoil, under sanctions, plans to divest its foreign assets. Concurrently, traders and oil companies (Gunvor, Vitol, Citadel, etc.) are increasing investments in oil and gas production, particularly in US shale gas projects, attempting to build integrated supply chains.
• Major Investment Programs: Beyond private deals, energy companies and investors are planning significant capital injections in the sector. The global association of energy holdings UNEZA anticipates over $1 trillion of investments by 2030 (including support for tens of thousands of kilometers of new lines and battery capacity), while increasing production and infrastructure remains a priority in the oil and gas sector.

Geopolitics and Regulation

• Ukraine: Negotiations to end the conflict remain an important factor for markets. At the same time, practical actions continue: Russia and Ukraine are mutually hitting infrastructure (oil and gas facilities and tankers). Against this backdrop, the risk premium on energy carriers has increased, although hopes for the resolution of hostilities are exerting downward pressure.
• Sanctions: Western restrictions on Russian energy carriers continue to influence the market. US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil have already reduced Russian budgetary revenues from oil and gas, with oil prices for tax purposes falling to nearly $57/barrel from January to November 2025, while the ruble has strengthened. The EU is gradually introducing a full ban on Russian oil and gas: ambassadors have approved a draft law to phase out Russian fuel by 2028 and plan an LNG embargo starting in 2027.
• Middle East and Asia: Regional instability continues to impact oil and gas markets. Iranian oil reserves and the potential resumption of its exports remain on OPEC's agenda, while a possible normalization of relations between the US and Venezuela could change supply structures. At the same time, Asian countries are strengthening energy security through bilateral agreements and the development of local resources.

Structured facts and analysis on key events in the commodity and energy markets are provided for investors and participants in the global energy sector.