Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Industry for Friday, January 9, 2026: Oil and Gas Market, Energy, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries, and Key Global Trends in the Fuel and Energy Sector.
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex on January 9, 2026, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to a combination of excess supply and rising geopolitical tensions. In the early days of the year, the price of Brent crude fell below the psychological threshold of $60 per barrel against a backdrop of an oversupply of oil and lukewarm demand. At the same time, unprecedented actions by the United States in Venezuela— the capture and arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, followed by plans to resume Venezuelan oil exports—are reshaping shipping routes and exacerbating relations between Washington and Beijing. The European gas market is navigating through the height of winter in a stable condition: high storage levels and record LNG imports are keeping prices at moderate levels. The global energy transition is also gaining momentum, with new records being set for renewable energy generation worldwide, although traditional resources still play a vital role in ensuring the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, measures for state regulation of the domestic oil product market remain in place after last year's fuel crisis, including the extension of export restrictions. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, power, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Pressures Prices, OPEC+ Signals Readiness to Act
Global oil prices at the beginning of 2026 are under significant pressure due to supply exceeding demand. The price of North Sea Brent crude has dropped to approximately $58-59 per barrel, marking the first time in several years that it has fallen below the $60 level, while U.S. WTI trades around $55 per barrel. According to industry experts, total oil production increased substantially in 2025 (with OPEC countries boosting exports and a significant increase in non-OPEC production), leading to a potential supply surplus of 2-3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026. At the same time, global economic growth is slowing, and oil demand is increasing at only about 1% per year (compared to typical growth of 1.5% prior to the crisis), exacerbating the market oversupply situation. Another factor putting pressure on oil is geopolitics: The unexpected U.S. operation in Venezuela and Washington's plans to lift the oil embargo on Caracas have raised expectations of significant volumes of "new" Venezuelan oil entering the market. Market participants are factoring this potential increase in supply into prices, contributing to a further decline. In these circumstances, the OPEC+ alliance is compelled to consider emergency market support measures. Saudi Arabia and its partners signal a readiness to return to production cuts if oil prices continue to fall and drop below levels comfortable for producers. While no new official agreements have been announced, the rhetoric of key players allows investors to hope for coordinated actions that could stabilize the oil market.
Gas Market: Europe Navigates Winter Confidently with High Storage and Record LNG Imports
The gas market remains focused on Europe, which displays a much more resilient position compared to the crisis winters of 2022-2023. EU countries entered 2026 with underground gas storages filled to over 60% of capacity on average—an unprecedented high for mid-winter, significantly exceeding historical norms. Mild weather in December, along with record amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, allowed Europeans to reduce withdrawals from storages. As a result, early January gas prices in Europe are maintained at relatively low levels: the key Dutch TTF index fluctuates around €28-30 per MWh (approximately $9-10 per MMBtu). Although the winter chill has caused a slight uptick in demand and prices have risen slightly in recent weeks, they remain significantly lower than the peaks of two years ago.
European energy companies are successfully compensating for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia by increasing LNG imports from around the world. In 2025, LNG imports to Europe rose by approximately 25% year-on-year, reaching around 127 million tons, with significant contributions from the U.S., Qatar, and African countries. New floating regasification terminals introduced over the past year (in Germany, the Netherlands, and other countries) have expanded receiving capacities and strengthened the region's energy security. Analysts expect that by the end of the heating season, the European Union will retain a substantial volume of reserves (around 35-40% of storage capacities by spring), instilling confidence in the absence of a gas shortage in the upcoming winter period. In Asian countries, LNG prices traditionally remain somewhat higher than European prices (with the Asian JKM index above $10 per MMBtu), however, the global gas market as a whole remains in a state of relative balance due to ample supply and restrained demand.
International Politics: U.S. Redirects Venezuelan Oil, Sanction Confrontation Continues
Geopolitical factors have taken center stage at the beginning of 2026 and are significantly impacting energy markets. In the early days of the new year, the U.S. conducted an unprecedented operation, effectively changing the government in Venezuela: Washington announced the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and its intention to lift some oil sanctions against Venezuela. The administration of President Donald Trump has already negotiated supplies of up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the U.S., redirecting a significant portion of Venezuela's exports, which previously went to Asian markets, primarily China. The U.S. presents this deal as a step toward enhancing its own energy security and controlling Venezuela's largest oil reserves. However, such actions have strained relations with Beijing: China, which has been the primary buyer of Venezuelan oil, sharply condemned the U.S. intervention, describing it as a violation of sovereignty. Beijing has signaled its intention to protect its energy interests—specifically, it is expected that China will increase purchases of Iranian and Russian oil to compensate for possible losses from Venezuelan volumes.
Meanwhile, the sanctions standoff between Russia and Western countries in the energy sector remains largely unchanged. Moscow has extended the decree prohibiting the supply of Russian oil and oil products to buyers complying with the G7/EU price cap until June 30, 2026, reaffirming its stance of non-recognition of Western restrictions. The European Union and the U.S. also maintain all previously imposed sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex, and global energy resource trading has fully adjusted to these restrictions—Russian oil and gas have been redirected primarily to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. There are no expectations for a quick easing of the sanctions regime: direct dialogue between Russia and the West is stagnant, and energy companies must operate in a new paradigm split by sanction barriers. Nevertheless, the continuation of sporadic contacts (for example, concerning grain deals or prisoner exchanges) maintains minimal chances for a partial thaw in relations in the future, which could also impact energy markets. Currently, investors are pricing in the persistence of a harsh sanctions confrontation and the associated reorientation of oil and gas flows.
Asia: India Stands Firm on Energy Security, China Increases Resource Production
- India: Despite unprecedented pressure from Western countries demanding a reduction in cooperation with Russia, New Delhi firmly adheres to its goal of ensuring its own energy security. India continues to actively purchase Russian oil and gas, asserting that a sharp reduction in imports from Russia is not feasible without harming its economy. Moreover, Indian refiners are securing favorable terms: Russian companies are offering increased discounts on Urals grade (estimated at around $5 off Brent price) to retain the Indian market. As a result, Russian oil continues to represent a significant share of India's import balance, and the Indian government publicly declares the unacceptability of external pressure that jeopardizes the country's access to critically important energy resources.
- China: Amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, Beijing is focusing on developing its own resource base. In 2025, China increased oil and natural gas production to record levels, investing in the exploration of fields both onshore and offshore. Simultaneously, the country ramped up coal production (over 4 billion tons per year) to ensure energy supply for industry and households. These measures aim to reduce dependence on energy imports, especially when supplies could become targets of sanctions or geopolitical pressure. Furthermore, China is diversifying its external sources—boosting purchases from Middle Eastern countries, Africa, and even Russia and Iran, seeking to avoid shortages even amidst changing global conditions.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewable Generation and the Role of Traditional Energy
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025. Many countries recorded record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources—solar, wind, and hydro. Solar and wind farms are being commissioned at an accelerated pace, and investments in energy storage and hydrogen technology are increasing. Preliminary data shows that the total capacity of renewables installations worldwide increased by more than 15% over the past year. Major energy companies and oil and gas corporations are also participating in this trend, investing in renewable energy and low-carbon fuel projects, aiming to adapt to the changing market.
At the same time, experts emphasize that traditional generation—gas, coal, and nuclear—remains crucial for the stability of energy systems. Renewable resources are subject to weather and seasonal influences, hence traditional capacities are still necessary to cover peak loads and ensure uninterrupted power supply. Many states, while declaring goals for a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels, still plan a transition period of 10-20 years during which oil, gas, and especially natural gas, as the cleanest fossil fuel, will serve as a "bridge" to fully green energy. Therefore, the current energy transition is not an instantaneous transformation but a gradual process that combines record growth in renewables with maintaining a balance between old and new energy sources.
Coal: High Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the environmental agenda, the global coal market continues to demonstrate resilience due to consistently high demand. Primarily, demand for coal remains strong in Asia-Pacific countries: economic growth and electricity needs in China, India, and Southeast Asia ensure intense consumption of this fuel. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of coal, burned coal at nearly record levels in 2025, mining over 4 billion tons and satisfying the lion’s share of its demand from domestic mines. India, possessing substantial reserves, is also increasing its coal usage: over 70% of the country’s electricity continues to be generated at coal-fired power plants, and absolute fuel consumption is rising in tandem with the economy. Even other developing economies (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are introducing new coal power plants to meet the demand for electricity from households and industry.
The supply in the global coal market is adapting to this demand, allowing prices to be maintained within a relatively narrow and predictable range. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased production and export of thermal coal in recent years, stabilizing the supply situation. After price peaks in 2022, the cost of thermal coal has returned to normal levels: current quotes at the European ARA hub are around $100 per ton (compared to over $300 two years ago). The balance of supply and demand in the sector appears to be balanced: consumers are guaranteed the necessary fuel, while producers have stable sales at favorable prices. Although many countries announce ambitious plans to reduce coal use in pursuit of climate goals, in the near decade, this energy source will remain an essential source for many countries, especially in Asia. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium where the market meets both the needs of the global economy and the profitability of mining companies.
Russian Oil Products Market: Continuation of Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel market of Russia, emergency measures aimed at preventing a new surge in gasoline and diesel prices are still in effect following last year's crisis. In the summer of 2025, the country experienced a severe fuel crisis: wholesale gasoline prices reached historical highs, and in certain regions, fuel shortages arose due to high seasonal demand (harvest season) and reduced supply (several large refineries were forced to shut down due to accidents and drone attacks). The government intervened swiftly, creating a special task force led by the deputy prime minister and implementing a series of decisions to saturate the domestic market with oil products. As a result, by autumn, wholesale prices were stabilized, but the regulatory framework remains in place for the new year:
- Extension of the fuel export ban. The complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, introduced in August 2025, has been repeatedly extended and is now in effect (at least until the end of February 2026). This measure channels additional volumes of oil products to the domestic market—hundreds of thousands of tons monthly that were previously exported.
- Partial resumption of export shipments for large refineries under government control. As the market balance improved, restrictions were partially eased for vertically integrated oil companies. From October 2025, certain large refineries were allowed limited export shipments under government supervision. However, independent producers, oil traders, and small refineries remain under embargo, preventing the leakage of scarce resources abroad.
- Increased monitoring of fuel distribution within the country. Authorities have tightened monitoring of the movement of oil products in the domestic market. Oil companies are mandated to prioritize the needs of domestic consumers and to avoid speculative trading, which drives up prices. Regulators are developing long-term mechanisms—such as a system of direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks bypassing the stock market—to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries and smooth price fluctuations.
- Retention of subsidies and the price damping mechanism. The government continues to provide financial support to refiners, compensating them for part of the lost revenue from export restrictions. Budget subsidies and a reverse excise mechanism ("damping") cover the gap between high global prices and lower domestic prices, incentivizing refineries to direct sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel fuel to the domestic market.
The combination of these measures has already yielded results: the fuel crisis has been brought under control. Despite record stock market prices last summer, retail prices at gas stations rose by only 5-6% since the beginning of the year, roughly corresponding to inflation. Filling stations across the country are now well-stocked with fuel, and wholesale prices have stabilized. The government states its readiness to continue extending restrictions on oil product exports in 2026 and, if necessary, to deploy state reserve stocks for timely supply to problem regions. Monitoring of the situation in the fuel market will remain at a high level to prevent new price surges and ensure a stable supply of oil products to the economy and population.
