Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 28, 2025: Hopes for Peaceful Resolution Grow, Oil and Gas Prices Rise, India Increases Imports, China Boosts Production, Russia Introduces Measures to Stabilize Domestic Fuel Market. Comprehensive Overview of the Global Fuel and Energy Complex.
As 2025 comes to a close, global energy markets are sending mixed signals to investors and industry participants. Negotiations for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine are fostering cautious optimism regarding a potential easing of sanctions on the Russian energy sector; however, a breakthrough in agreements remains distant, with uncertainty prevailing. Concurrently, the sanctions regime remains in place: in November, Washington tightened restrictions by extending sanctions to transactions with major Russian oil companies, forcing the market to adapt to the new conditions.
The global oil market, which experienced a significant price decline over the course of the year due to oversupply and slowing demand, is showing signs of stabilization by the end of December. After four consecutive months of decline, prices have surged upward – benchmark Brent prices rose from approximately $60 to $62-63 per barrel, while WTI increased to around $58-59. The weekly increase amounted to about 3%, although oil prices have fallen by approximately 16% over the year. Geopolitical factors (a drone attack on an oil terminal in Novorossiysk and military risks in Nigeria) provided support to prices, as did OPEC+'s decision to maintain production restrictions for the first quarter of 2026 instead of the planned increase in quotas.
The European gas market commenced the winter season with record levels of stored gas in underground storage facilities, which had brought exchange prices down to their lowest in over a year (approximately $330 per thousand cubic meters at the beginning of December). However, the Christmas cold snap energized demand: during the holidays, gas withdrawals from storage facilities reached record highs, and prices at the TTF hub bounced back to around $345 per thousand m3 (approximately €28/MWh). Despite the high availability of resources, the European market remains sensitive to weather risks. EU countries have largely abandoned Russian pipeline gas (the share of Russian imports has fallen to about 13%) and are betting on LNG – new contracts are being signed with the USA and the Middle East, and infrastructure to accept gas is being strengthened. As a result, current gas prices, while significantly lower than the peaks of 2022, may rise again in the event of prolonged cold weather.
Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum. Many countries are recording new records in electricity generation from renewable sources: the total capacity of solar and wind power plants commissioned in 2025 exceeded figures from any previous year. According to industry analysts, for the first half of 2025, renewable energy generation surpassed coal generation for the first time in world history. Investments in "green" energy are also at a record high (estimated at over $2 trillion in 2025), although they are still concentrated mainly in developed economies and China. For the reliability of energy systems, many states are not rushing to completely abandon traditional hydrocarbons: coal and gas power plants remain critically important for covering peak demand and balancing the grid, especially during periods when renewable sources are unable to provide sufficient generation.
In Russia, following a sharp spike in gasoline and diesel prices in the fall, authorities implemented a set of operational measures aimed at normalizing the situation in the domestic fuel market. The government temporarily restricted the export of oil products, increased the norms for fuel sales on the exchange, and adjusted the damping subsidy mechanism to direct additional volumes to the domestic market. These steps yielded tangible results: wholesale prices for automotive fuel began to decline. For instance, the exchange price of AI-95 gasoline in mid-December fell by nearly 10% compared to the peak values of autumn. The supply situation at filling stations is stable, and the fuel deficit in the regions has been eliminated. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, and fuel segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Prices Rise Amid Limited Supply
Global oil prices moderately increased over the past week following a prolonged period of decline and remain relatively stable, influenced by fundamental factors. North Sea Brent settled in the range of $60-63 per barrel, while American WTI was around $57-59. Current levels are still approximately 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction following the price peaks of previous years. Several factors are influencing the dynamics of the oil market:
- OPEC+ Production Policy: To combat the oversupply, OPEC+ nations have refrained from the previously planned increase in production. Quotas for the first quarter of 2026 have been maintained at the levels established at the end of 2025, while several large exporters (including Saudi Arabia) continue to voluntarily limit production. These steps are aimed at preventing overproduction and supporting prices, but they also lead to a reduction in OPEC+'s market share.
- Increased Non-OPEC Production: Independent producers are ramping up supplies. In the USA, oil production has approached historical highs of around 13 million barrels per day due to the shale boom, and the export of oil products is also increasing. Other non-OPEC countries have also seized the opportunity of high prices from previous years to boost production, intensifying market competition and creating surplus oil stocks.
- Slowdown in Demand Growth: Global oil demand in 2025 grew much more slowly than during the post-pandemic recovery period. According to the IEA, demand growth was only about 0.7 million barrels per day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts have been revised down to about 1.3 million barrels per day. Reasons for this include weak economic growth worldwide and the effect of high prices from previous years, which encouraged energy conservation. An additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China, which has limited the appetite of the second-largest oil consumer in the world.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: The global political landscape remains uncertain. The worsening situation in the Middle East and Africa periodically threatens supply: for instance, US strikes against radical groups in oil-producing Nigeria and attacks on tankers carrying Venezuelan oil have heightened fears of supply disruptions. On the other hand, the emergence of potential prospects for a peace agreement regarding Ukraine has fostered hopes for a lifting of some sanctions against Russia and an increase in its exports. Until such developments occur, sanctions continue to exert influence: Russia is selling oil at a significant discount (Urals averaged around $40 per barrel in December, well below Brent), utilizing alternative sales markets and a "shadow fleet" of tankers to evade embargo restrictions.
Gas Market: Winter Demand Drives Prices Up
The gas market remains focused on Europe. Entering winter with storage facilities filled to over 90%, the EU managed to achieve relative price relief in the fall: in early December, the spot price of gas dropped to around $330 per thousand cubic meters – the lowest level since mid-2024. However, the cold snap at the end of the month triggered an increase in consumption: during the holidays, European storage facilities lost significant volumes of gas, although the buffer remains high (by the end of December, storage was filled to over 75%). Prices reacted with a moderate uptick, but they are still significantly below the crisis peaks of previous winters.
European countries continue to diversify their sources of gas. The share of Russian gas in EU imports has fallen to a historical low, and even after a potential resolution of the conflict, Brussels intends to maintain restrictions on deliveries from Russia. LNG supplies to the European market are increasing – for instance, major energy companies are signing new contracts for American and Qatari LNG, and some Eastern European countries have begun receiving gas from Azerbaijan and North Africa.
At the same time, demand in Asia remains a significant factor. In China, LNG imports increased by nearly 11% in October compared to last year due to an industrial upswing following the lifting of quarantine restrictions. In contrast, India reduced LNG purchases by 11% (largely due to high prices and a shift of power plants to coal). Nevertheless, total global gas consumption in 2025 grew – according to Gazprom, an increase of 25 billion cubic meters – driven by economic recovery and the expansion of gasification in developing countries. Russia, having lost a significant part of the European market, has reoriented its exports: pipeline deliveries to China via the "Power of Siberia" reached 38.8 billion cubic meters in 2025 (a record volume close to project capacity), while Russian LNG exports to European countries (e.g., Belgium) even increased due to the absence of formal bans on liquefied gas.
International Politics: Peace Talks Offer Hope for Easing Sanctions
In the realm of foreign politics, the end of the year is marked by an intensification of dialogue among key global players regarding the Ukrainian crisis. In mid-December, Russian President Vladimir Putin disclosed details of negotiations with the USA during a meeting with business representatives, expressing readiness for "certain territorial compromises" in exchange for confirming control over the entire Donbass. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that "much can be resolved" before the New Year – he conducted a series of consultations with US administration representatives ahead of a possible meeting with President Donald Trump.
These peaceful signals are fueling investors' hope for a gradual normalization of relationships and a potential lifting of some sanctions imposed against Russia. The prospect of signing a peace agreement has already reflected in market sentiments: traders anticipate potential easing of restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports in the event of a durable ceasefire. However, uncertainty remains high. Until concrete agreements are reached, Western countries are continuing their course of imposing sanctions. Earlier, Washington indicated its willingness to expand energy sanctions if Moscow prolongs negotiations, while the European Union has approved the introduction of a total embargo on Russian gas immediately after the end of hostilities. Thus, the further "thaw" of Russian fuel exports largely depends on the outcome of political dialogues in the coming weeks.
Asia: India Increases Imports Amid Pressure, China Sets Production Records
- India: Facing unprecedented pressure from the West (for example, Washington has raised trade tariffs on Indian goods to 50%), New Delhi is not planning to abandon lucrative imports of Russian raw materials. In December, oil deliveries from Russia to India are estimated at over 1.2 million barrels per day (down from a record 1.77 million b/d in November), as Indian refineries rushed to contract raw materials before the entry into force of new US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil on November 21. Recent talks between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi confirmed the intention to maintain energy cooperation between the countries despite external pressure.
- China: Beijing is focusing on increasing its own energy production and infrastructure. In 2025, oil production in China reached a record ~215 million tons (about 4.3 million b/d), while gas production also hit a new high. Simultaneously, China is investing in expanding refining and power generation: the launch of new fields and generating capacities partially reduces dependence on imports. Nevertheless, China remains the world's largest importer of energy resources – it continues to purchase significant volumes of oil (including at favorable prices from Russia) and LNG to meet demand. The slowdown of the Chinese economy in 2025 slightly tempered the growth of domestic energy consumption, but the country remains a key driver of demand in the global market.
Energy Transition: Record Growth in Renewables and Continuing Role of Traditional Energy
The development of renewable energy sources (RES) in 2025 set new benchmarks. New solar and wind power plants have been commissioned worldwide, increasing the share of "green" generation. Over the year, around 750 GW of new RES capacity has been added globally – more than ever before. As a result, renewable energy accounted for over 50% of electricity generation during certain periods in some countries. At the same time, there is a boom in investment in clean energy: their volume is estimated to have exceeded $2 trillion for the year.
However, despite the impressive achievements, the transition to clean energy faces objective challenges. Demand for electricity continues to increase as the economy recovers, and traditional sources – gas, coal, nuclear energy – remain necessary for stable energy supply. In 2025, the global carbon footprint of the energy sector reached a new peak, and fossil fuels still account for about 80% of global energy consumption. During peak load periods or adverse weather conditions (when sun and wind are insufficient), systems are forced to rely on coal and gas power plants to prevent rolling blackouts. Governments acknowledge that ensuring energy security and affordability is a top priority: for instance, in Europe and the USA, programs have been introduced to subsidize the production of key RES equipment, but strategic reserves of oil and gas are also maintained in case of crises. Thus, 2025 demonstrated progress in decarbonization while confirming that traditional energy will continue to play a significant role in the global balance for a long time.
Coal: Market Stability Amid High Demand
Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy, the coal sector in 2025 maintained a robust position due to steady demand. According to the IEA, global coal consumption reached a record 8.8 billion tons per year – about 0.5% more than the previous year. The major growth came from Asian countries: China and India continue to burn about two-thirds of the world's coal for electricity generation and steel production. In Southeast Asia and Africa, the construction of new coal-fired power plants continues, as coal remains one of the most accessible fuels.
Coal prices in 2025 stabilized after a period of sharp fluctuations in 2022-2023. In key Asian markets (e.g., Australia and Indonesia), the price of thermal coal fluctuates around $140-150 per ton, which is below the peak values of the crisis year 2022 but comfortable for producers. Major exporters – Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa – maintain high production levels to meet the needs of importers. At the same time, developed Western countries continue to reduce coal usage: in Europe, coal generation in 2025 declined at double-digit rates due to the growth of RES and environmental restrictions. However, the global decline in Europe is compensated by increases in other parts of the world. Thus, the coal market maintains balance: supply is sufficient to meet high demand, and while the long-term trend gradually shifts towards cleaner energy sources, coal will remain an important part of the global energy balance in the coming years.
Russian Petroleum Products Market: Operational Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic petroleum products market, 2025 was marked by unprecedented price fluctuations. The sharp rise in gasoline and diesel prices in the summer and fall posed a threat to the transport sector and fueled inflation. In response, the Russian government took stringent measures to protect the market: bans and quotas on the export of automotive fuel were introduced, norms for the sale of petroleum products at the St. Petersburg exchange were increased, and budget subsidies (damping) were adjusted towards additional support for refiners supplying products to the domestic market. These measures, along with the completion of planned repairs at refineries, allowed for an increase in fuel supply within the country.
By the beginning of winter, the situation stabilized. Wholesale prices on the exchange began to decline, which soon reflected in retail prices. According to the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, by mid-December, prices for "Premium-95" gasoline dropped by approximately 10% from the September peak. Diesel prices also retreated, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year. Network filling stations across the country report improved resource allocation, and the fuel shortage has been eliminated even in remote regions. Authorities have stated their readiness to extend export restrictions if needed to keep domestic prices in check and are also considering the introduction of a permanent regulatory mechanism – for instance, linking fuel prices to export alternatives with compensation for refiners. As a result of these measures, the fuel crisis has been quelled, and the Russian petroleum products market is entering 2026 in a relatively balanced state.
