Current Global Oil and Gas News and Energy Sector Updates for December 16, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Energy Market, Renewable Energy Sources, Coal, Refineries, Processing, and Global Trends. Detailed Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 16, 2025, capture the attention of investors and market participants due to their complexity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated his readiness to abandon aspirations for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe – this step instills hopes for a possible de-escalation of the prolonged conflict. At the same time, sanctions pressure on Russia is only increasing: the European Union has extended the freeze on Russian assets indefinitely until the end of the conflict and is discussing a complete ban on remaining Russian oil supplies in early 2026, while already agreeing on plans to completely cease importing Russian gas by 2027. On the global oil market, fundamental factors of oversupply and sluggish demand continue to dominate – benchmark Brent crude prices hover around the lower boundary of $60 per barrel, reflecting a fragile balance of forces. The European gas market shows relative stability: underground gas storage facilities in the EU are filled to over 85%, providing a safety net before winter and keeping prices at a moderate level. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – new records in renewable energy generation are being set in various regions, although for the reliability of energy systems, countries have not yet abandoned traditional resources. In Russia, following the previous price spikes, authorities continue to implement a set of measures aimed at stabilizing the situation in the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, and renewable sectors, as well as markets for oil products and processing as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices at Multi-Year Lows
Global oil prices remain relatively stable but low, influenced by fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent blend trades around $60–62 per barrel, while American WTI is near $57–59. Current quotes are approximately 15% lower than levels a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction following the peaks of the 2022-2023 energy crisis. The primary cause of price pressure remains oversupply amid moderate demand growth. In September, global oil production reached a record 109 million barrels per day, and although volumes slightly decreased in November (about 1.5 million barrels per day) due to targeted OPEC+ restrictions and outages among certain producers, overall supply remains abundant. Global oil stocks have risen to a four-year high of about 8 billion barrels, indicating an oversupply of around 1-2 million barrels per day throughout much of the year. OPEC+ signals its readiness to maintain or even tighten output restrictions through 2026, seeking to prevent further price declines. Sanctions against exporters such as Russia and Iran have reduced their oil exports, but this is currently insufficient to create a significant market deficit – other players, including Middle Eastern countries, have increased their shipments. The market structure is close to contango (short-term futures prices are lower than long-term ones), indicating expectations of a continued oversupply in the short term. At the same time, geopolitical risks – from the conflict in Eastern Europe to instability in the Middle East – continue to support the market, preventing prices from falling too low. As a result, oil prices balance within a narrow range, remaining at multi-year lows but without sharp downward shifts, reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and uncertainty factors.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe and the Influence of Mild Weather
The European gas market looks calm and balanced at the end of the year. Storage levels in the EU remain high – around 85% of total capacity, significantly above the long-term average for December, ensuring reliable supply even with increased winter gas withdrawal. Exchange gas prices are kept at relatively moderate levels: January futures at the TTF hub in Europe are trading around $350 per thousand cubic meters (about $35 per MWh), which is significantly lower than the peak crisis values of the year before last. This is driven by several factors: firstly, relatively mild weather forecasts for the second half of December have reduced heating demand expectations. Secondly, active supply diversification has yielded results – Europe continues to receive stable volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, compensating for reduced pipeline imports from Russia. Moreover, the EU has politically agreed to permanently abandon Russian gas by 2027, stimulating the conclusion of long-term contracts with alternative suppliers and the development of its own infrastructure (LNG terminals, interconnections).
The global gas market also exhibits moderate dynamics. In the U.S., natural gas prices (Henry Hub) fell about 20% in the first half of December – below $5 per million British thermal units – amid abnormally warm weather and increased production. Northern Asia, traditionally the largest LNG consumer, is not experiencing a deficit this winter: China and Japan have built adequate stocks, and spot prices in Asia remain relatively subdued. Thus, the gas sector enters winter in a relatively resilient state. Despite geopolitical tensions and long-term changes in the supply structure, the short-term outlook is favorable: there are sufficient stocks, stable prices, and the market is capable of absorbing spikes in demand without serious disruptions. Of course, sudden cold anomalies or supply disruptions could temporarily spike prices, but currently, there are no signs of a new gas crisis.
Electric Power: Demand Growth and the Need for Grid Modernization
The global electric power sector is witnessing significant structural changes amid growing demand and the energy transition. Electricity consumption in many countries is hitting records. In the U.S., a historical peak of about 4.2 trillion kWh is expected by the end of 2025, driven by the development of data centers (including those for AI and cryptocurrencies) as well as ongoing electrification of transport and heating. Similar trends are observed in other regions: globally, electricity demand is increasing by about 2-3% annually, outpacing the growth rate of the global economy, reflecting digitization and a shift from fossil fuels to electricity in various sectors.
The structure of generation is shifting toward cleaner sources, but infrastructure challenges are becoming more acute. In Europe, the share of renewable sources in electricity production approached 50% for the first time in the third quarter of 2025, but this required compensating for generation variability through traditional capacities. Periods of low wind or drought (affecting hydropower) forced some countries to temporarily increase output from gas and even coal power plants to meet demand. Electricity transmission networks are facing increased loads due to the redistribution of energy flows between regions: for example, an excess of solar generation in the south must flow to consumers in the north, and so forth. The European Union is planning large-scale updates and expansions of electricity network infrastructure, as well as market rule reforms – particularly simplifying the permitting process for renewable generation and energy storage projects, to relieve bottlenecks; otherwise, by 2040, up to 300 TWh of renewable energy may remain unutilized due to network constraints.
Energy experts highlight several priority areas for ensuring the resilience of energy systems during the energy transition:
- Modernization and expansion of electricity networks for effective energy transmission between regions and integration of renewable sources.
- Massive implementation of energy storage systems (industrial batteries), allowing for peak load smoothing and leveling of renewable energy output.
- Maintaining sufficient reserve capacities (gas, hydro, and nuclear power plants) in case of anomalous demand peaks or disruptions in renewable generation.
Implementing these measures requires significant investments but is critically important for maintaining energy supply reliability. As a result, the power sector enters 2026 with record demand and a growing share of "green" generation; however, the successful transition to a low-carbon system will depend on the infrastructure's ability to adapt to new realities.
Renewable Energy Sources: New Records and Global Growth
Renewable energy continues to set records and increase its share in the global energy balance. The year 2025 marked a historic event: total electricity generation from renewables (including wind, solar, hydro, and others) has for the first time surpassed coal generation worldwide. The rapid growth of solar and wind generation has met the increased electricity demand – just solar power plants provided over 300 TWh of additional energy in the first half of the year, comparable to the annual consumption of a medium-sized country. Simultaneously, global coal generation slightly decreased, reducing its share in electricity to ~33%, while renewables reached ~34%.
Recent achievements in the field of renewables include:
- A record for wind generation in the UK – on December 5, wind power plants hit 23.8 GW, covering over 60% of the country’s electricity needs that day.
- China continues to lead in clean energy expansion: the total installed capacity of renewables in China reached ~1889 GW (about 56% of all capacities), with more than half of new cars sold in the country being electric. This has helped keep CO2 emissions on a plateau for the last year and a half.
- Renewables dominate the structure of new capacity installations. As of the end of 2025, over 90% of all new power plants worldwide were solar, wind, and other renewables projects, while the share of gas and coal in new constructions is minimal.
- Investments in "green" energy are breaking records even in developing countries: for example, in the Philippines, renewable energy projects worth almost 480 billion pesos were approved in 2025, while several countries in the Middle East and Latin America launched large-scale programs to support solar and wind generation.
Despite impressive successes, the renewable sector faces challenges. Regulatory uncertainty and grid limitations in some regions mean that some renewable potential remains untapped. Experts call for governments and businesses to accelerate efforts to integrate renewable sources: setting ambitious goals, streamlining bureaucratic procedures for new projects, and investing in smart grids and energy storage. Nevertheless, the overall trend is clear – renewable energy is becoming the main driver of generation growth globally, gradually displacing hydrocarbon sources and bringing the global energy system closer to a more ecologically sustainable model.
Coal: Decline in Demand and Price Drop Amid Energy Transition
The coal sector in 2025 is experiencing pressure from energy transition and competition from cleaner sources. Global demand for coal has stabilized and begun a gradual decline in some key economies. In China and India – countries that traditionally consume a lion's share of coal – the increase in electricity production this year has largely been provided by the introduction of new renewables, allowing coal consumption to be maintained or even reduced in relative terms. As a result, the share of coal generation worldwide has decreased by more than 1 percentage point compared to last year.
World prices for thermal coal also reflect the weakening demand. By the end of the year, prices for Australian thermal coal have fallen below $110 per ton, nearing the lowest levels seen in recent months. Since the beginning of 2025, coal prices have dropped by approximately 15-20%, driven by high stock levels, recovery in production after outages, and relatively mild winter conditions in major consuming regions. European coal price indices strengthened somewhat in the autumn due to reduced output from nuclear power plants and low renewables output during certain weeks; however, the overall trend remains downward.
The structural decline of coal's role in the energy systems of developed countries is also ongoing. Many states are accelerating plans to phase out coal: in Europe, the last projects are nearing completion for the decommissioning of coal-fired power plants by the end of the decade; in Australia, one of the largest power stations in Queensland has been announced to close six years earlier than planned; and in the U.S., the share of coal in generation has dropped to 16% and is expected to decrease further as new renewables and gas power plants are commissioned. Nevertheless, coal remains an important element of global energy – around one-third of electricity production is still provided by coal-fired plants, and in some developing countries, coal remains a cheap and accessible fuel for industry. Demand for coal may fluctuate in the coming years depending on market conditions – gas prices, weather events, and economic activity. However, the long-term perspective indicates a gradual end to the coal era: investments are shifting to clean energy, financial markets are factoring in an accelerated exit from fossil fuels, and the coal sector is increasingly relegated to the periphery of the global FEC.
Oil Products: Stabilizing Fuel Prices After Autumn Shortages
The oil products market at the end of 2025 shows signs of stabilization after the turbulence experienced in autumn. In October and early November, disruptions at several major refineries (planned maintenance and unplanned shutdowns) led to local shortages of diesel fuel and kerosene in certain markets. Against this background, global refining margins surged to levels comparable to the period immediately following the onset of the 2022 conflict – particularly high were crack spreads for diesel fuel, given its increased demand during the heating season and in industry.
However, by mid-December, the situation normalized. Many refineries resumed full operations, making up for lost fuel production. Gasoline and distillate inventories in the U.S. and Europe began to recover, which lowered wholesale prices. Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. have dropped from summer peaks and are currently about 5-10% lower than a year ago, thanks to the decrease in oil prices and stabilization of demand. In Europe, the price of diesel fuel has also retreated from recent highs, alleviating inflationary pressure on the transport sector. In Asia, where there was a surge in demand for jet fuel throughout the year due to the revival of air travel, kerosene imports increased approaching winter, saturating the market and halting price growth.
It is worth noting that changes in global oil product trading continue under the influence of geopolitics. Since February 2023, the EU countries have ceased imports of Russian oil products, redirecting purchases to the Middle East, Asia, and the U.S. Russia, in turn, has redirected some of its diesel and gasoline exports to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Such reorientation requires the market time to balance; however, the overall fuel supply system has adapted: no fuel shortages are observed, although logistics have become longer. In the outlook for early 2026, new changes are possible – if the European Commission implements intentions to completely ban Russian oil purchases, it will indirectly impact the oil products market, forcing EU refineries to operate solely on alternative raw materials. Nevertheless, at present, the oil products market enters winter relatively calmly: the supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is sufficient to meet demand, and prices fluctuate within the usual seasonal range without signs of a new price shock.
Oil Refining: Industry Modernization and Transition to Clean Fuels
Oil refineries worldwide are undergoing a transformation period, striving to adapt to changing demand and environmental requirements. In Europe, there is a clear trend: refineries are reorienting to produce cleaner types of fuels. Under pressure from stricter EU emission standards and competition from new high-tech refineries in the Middle East and Asia, European refiners are investing billions of euros in modernization. The key goal is to increase the production of environmentally friendly products, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), biodiesel, renewable propane, and other biofuels, which are increasingly in demand in the transport sector.
Another development direction is deep processing and integration with petrochemicals. Large oil companies are seeking to enhance profitability by refining crude oil not just into fuel but also into petrochemical products (plastics, fertilizers, etc.). Many modern refineries are effectively transforming into integrated complexes capable of flexibly adjusting product output depending on market conditions – for instance, increasing the production of jet fuel or fuel oil when demand rises or refining part of the raw material into naphtha for petrochemicals.
Key trends in the transformation of oil refining include:
- Decarbonization of processes: introducing carbon capture technologies, transitioning to hydrogen fuel, and renewable energy as the energy supply for the refineries themselves to reduce the carbon footprint of production.
- Capacity optimization: closing outdated and less efficient refineries in regions with excess capacity (like Europe) and launching new modernized plants closer to centers of growing demand – in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Flexibility of the raw material base: the ability to process various types of raw materials – from traditional crude oil of various grades to biofeedstocks (vegetable oils, waste) and synthetic crude. This enables refineries to operate amid changes in supply conditions caused by sanctions or market dynamics.
The global volume of oil refining is recovering in 2025 following the rebound in fuel consumption. According to industry forecasts, total refinery throughput globally could reach ~84 million barrels per day in 2026, exceeding levels of 2024-2025. A significant portion of the new capacity growth is concentrated in the Middle East (for example, expansion of major Saudi and Kuwaiti complexes) and Asia (new refineries in China and India), where domestic demand for fuel and petrochemicals is growing. Meanwhile, regional restructuring continues: North America and Europe are consolidating the industry, focusing on efficiency and environmental concerns, while developing economies are constructing modern “full-cycle” refineries.
Sanctions and geopolitical factors have also impacted oil refining. Russian refineries, facing embargoes on the export of certain products and periodic restrictions, have redirected sales to the domestic market and friendly countries. Simultaneously, the Russian government introduced temporary bans and quotas on the export of gasoline and diesel in the autumn of 2025 to stabilize domestic prices. These measures led to an oversupply in the domestic market and a subsequent decrease in gasoline prices in Russia by December. In the long term, international experts expect that global oil refining will increasingly shift to regions of oil consumption and growth in demand for oil products, as well as adapt to the “green” transition – from the production of alternative fuel types to reducing emissions. The refining sector enters 2026 in relatively good health – margins for most players remain positive due to the preceding period of high prices. However, the further success of the industry will depend on its ability to change: to produce cleaner, operate more efficiently, and fit into a new energy reality where the share of oil is gradually decreasing.
