Global Energy Market Overview: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Coal, and Renewables as of September 10, 2026
Key Topic of the Day: Brent Above $100 — Attacks on Tankers and Tehran's Response
Oil prices have been rising for the fourth consecutive session, triggered by direct military escalation in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. Central Command reported the destruction of five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island in response to attempts to attack American vessels; in total, the Pentagon states that ten vessels of the “shadow fleet” have been rendered inoperable in just a week. Iran announced strikes against the Muwaffaq Salti base in Jordan (18 missiles intercepted), attacks on two U.S. Navy destroyers, and on ten vessels near Hormuz. The UKMTO maritime service recorded an unidentified projectile hitting a tanker off the Iraqi Al-Faw and damage to a vessel near Port Rashid in the UAE.
A key threat to shipping is the declared "exclusion zone" by Tehran beyond the strait, where Iranian forces intend to seize vessels without permission. For traders and insurers, this means further increases in military premiums and a reduction in the number of shipowners willing to enter the region. In response, Washington has expanded its sanctions campaign against Iranian aviation, while Seoul is considering participation in securing the strait.
Oil Market: Prices, Dynamics, and Forecasts
Key indicators for the oil market as of Thursday morning:
- Brent (November, ICE): Wednesday peak at $100.19 per barrel, first time above $100 since July 24; then consolidating around $99.7–100.5.
- WTI (October, NYMEX): around $94.7, approximately 2% increase for the session.
- Dynamics: Since August 31, Brent has increased by around 13.5%, and since the start of the war with Iran in late February — nearly 40%; the peak of the year in April exceeded $125.
- Forecasts: Goldman Sachs allows for $120 with intensified attacks on vessels in Hormuz and the Red Sea and a return to $80 with normalization of exports; ING expects a significant risk premium to persist until negotiations resume.
The fundamental background remains constrained. According to EIA estimates, global oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels per day in Q2 and another 3.8 million barrels per day in Q3; transit through Hormuz in Q2 averaged only 4.9 million barrels per day compared to 21.6 million barrels per day before the conflict. The August forecast from the agency — $85 per barrel in Q3 and $78 in Q4 — appears outdated in light of current prices, with the September release of STEO set to align the market with the “hundred” reality. The U.S. Strategic Reserve, at approximately 286.6 million barrels, limits Washington's ability to soften price shocks through interventions.
Middle East: Double Blockade of Saudi Arabia
A second front of risk — the Red Sea. The Houthis launched strikes on targets in Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan, and Najran on September 8: 73 people were injured, and fires broke out at the Aramco refinery in Jizan with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day. Simultaneously, the movement declared a campaign for control over Bab el-Mandeb. The issue for oil supplies is that after the closure of Hormuz, the Red Sea has become the Kingdom’s main artery: the East-West pipeline is operating at a record 7 million barrels per day, and the Yanbu terminal accounts for over 90% of Saudi oil's maritime exports. The defensive pact between Riyadh and Turkey and Pakistan has not yet mitigated the threat to infrastructure. Any disruption at Yanbu would result in the largest exporter being sidelined from the market while both straits remain closed.
Gas Market: TTF Above $950, Gas Storage at Minimum Since 2011
The European gas market is moving contrary to seasonal logic. October futures on TTF reached €78.8/MWh (about $970 per thousand cubic meters) on September 9, up nearly 4% in a day; prices have risen about 120% since the beginning of the year. Key parameters:
- EU gas storage levels — 66.9% as of September 7, around 71.7 billion cubic meters; a historic minimum for this date since records began in 2011 and 13.8 billion cubic meters lower than last year's level.
- Germany — approximately 53%, the worst indicator among major economies; Italy — the only large market close to comfortable levels of 80%+.
- Target norm — 90% in the window from October 1 to December 1 with a tolerance of 10 percentage points; since April, only about 62% of the required volumes have been injected.
The European Commission stated following the Gas Coordination Group meeting on September 3 that there is no immediate threat to supply security and sees no grounds for intervention, citing diversification, regasification capacity, and reduced demand. However, LNG production in Qatar remains offline, and Europe has to compete for tankers with Asia at peak prices. For EU industry, this means entering the heating season with the highest injection costs in four years.
LNG and Coal: Gas Shortages Support Coal Generation
The LNG deficit in 2026 is estimated at around 35 million tons, forcing import-dependent countries in Northeast Asia to increase coal production: in South Korea, it has risen nearly 40%, and in Japan — by more than 11%. Global demand for coal may increase by about 3%, approaching 9.1 billion tons. For coal exporters — Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa — this presents an unplanned window of demand against the long-term trend of decarbonization.
China and Asia: Oil Imports Recovering from Decade Low
Customs statistics from China for August showed a second consecutive month of growth: oil imports totaled 37.93 million tons (8.93 million barrels per day), +6.2% compared to July, but still 23.4% lower than last year's level; purchases have decreased by 14.6% over the past eight months. Chinese refineries are actively increasing purchases of Russian ESPO oil, bypassing Hormuz and exploring atypical routes, including Argentina. Exports of petroleum products surged by 29% to 6 million tons amid global diesel shortages, while domestic demand for gasoline and diesel remains 8-9% lower than last year. Inventory reductions have slowed to 550,000 barrels per day, indicating a gradual return of Beijing to the spot market.
Russia: Urals Discount, Exports, and Second Wave of Fuel Crisis
The high Brent price partially compensates Russian companies for the expanded discount: after the expiration of the American license for transactions with Russian oil, the Urals discount reached $23-24 per barrel during the summer, and the average annual level is estimated at $17-22. The domestic petroleum products market remains in crisis mode:
- Exchange sales of gasoline from September 1-4 surged by 69% from August to 72,750 tons, but already by September 7 dropped to 12,240 tons due to unscheduled refinery repairs;
- Unmet solvent demand — 37,700 tons for AI-92 and 35,300 tons for AI-95; only about 41% of exchange contracts have been fulfilled since May;
- Since the beginning of the year, 5.44 million tons of gasoline have been sold on the exchange — 23.7% less than a year earlier;
- The export ban on gasoline has been extended to January 31, 2027, with the Ministry of Energy discussing restrictions on diesel exports during repair periods and winter demand, and imports from India have commenced.
Electricity and Renewables: Structural Trend Does Not Shift
Against the backdrop of the commodity shock, the energy transition is accelerating. According to Ember, in 2025 renewable sources will, for the first time in a century, surpass coal in global generation (33.8% vs 33.0%), and in May 2026 solar energy will, for the first time, exceed coal in the U.S. energy balance (12.8% vs 12.2%). Africa is heading towards a record year with a 45% increase in solar capacity installations. Global electricity demand in 2026 will rise by 3.6% due to electric transport, air conditioning, and data centers for AI. For investors in renewables, storage solutions, and networks, expensive gas is not a brake but an additional argument.
Thursday's Calendar: OPEC, EIA, and U.S. Inflation
September 10 is one of the busiest days of the month for participants in the energy market. OPEC will publish its monthly review with updated demand and production estimates, revealing how much the cartel considers the drop in consumption in Asia. Due to the holiday schedule, EIA will release weekly statistics on oil and petroleum product inventories on Thursday — following a series of reductions in U.S. commercial reserves below the five-year minimum, the data is critical for WTI. The U.S. will release the Producer Price Index for August, and on Friday, the IEA report and consumer inflation, which will influence the rhetoric of the Fed. The next OPEC+ meeting is set for October 4; October quotas remain unchanged.
Conclusions and Risks for Investors and Energy Companies
- Oil. The consolidation of Brent above $100 depends on whether the attacks on tankers escalate into a complete closure of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb; the range of scenarios for the quarter is from $80 to $120.
- Gas. Europe enters winter with historically low storage levels; a cold November or another disruption in LNG supplies could push TTF back to four-digit levels.
- Coal and Refineries. The gas and diesel shortages support the margins of coal generation and processing but concentrate profits in regions outside the conflict zone.
- Russia. High oil prices mitigate budget risks, yet the domestic fuel market remains vulnerable until refinery repairs are completed.
- Renewables. Renewable energy remains the only predictable element of the global energy balance and the main benchmark for long-term investments.
The conclusion of the day for the global energy sector: short-term oil and gas prices are dictated by military logic in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, mid-term by Europe and Asia’s ability to endure winter with half-empty storages, and long-term by the pace of the energy transition. In these conditions, scenario planning, logistics diversification, and hedging discipline become a condition for survival for participants in the energy market rather than an option.
