Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of Saturday, December 20, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Refining (Refineries) and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
As December draws to a close, significant changes are occurring in the global fuel and energy complex. Years of low energy prices, combined with geopolitical shifts, create an ambiguous environment that attracts the attention of investors and market participants. On one hand, oil is trading near its lowest levels in recent years amid expectations of an oversupply and positive signals regarding peace negotiations in Eastern Europe. On the other, gas prices in Europe continue to decline even as winter temperatures arrive, thanks to a record influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the same time, global coal demand in 2025 reached record highs and is expected to begin to decline steadily as the energy transition accelerates.
Against this backdrop, governments and major companies in the sector are adapting their strategies. Some are making efforts to ease sanctions and ensure stable fuel supplies, while others are increasing investments in both the traditional oil and gas sector and green energy. Below is a detailed overview of the key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials segments as of the current date.
Oil Market
The global oil market continues to face pressure, with prices remaining around the lowest marks seen in recent years. The benchmark Brent crude is trading near $60 per barrel (occasionally dipping below this psychologically significant level), while American WTI hovers around $55. These are the lowest levels since approximately 2020. Key factors influencing the decline in oil prices include:
- Expected Supply Surplus: Forecasts for 2026 indicate that global production may exceed demand. Non-OPEC countries (primarily the USA and Brazil) have ramped up oil production to record levels. At the same time, the growth rate of global demand is slowing — industry estimates suggest that oil consumption increased by about +0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to more than +2 million b/d in 2023). This leads to inventory accumulation and adds pressure on prices.
- Hopes for a Ceasefire in Ukraine: Progress in negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv has sparked expectations of partial sanctions relief and the return of some Russian oil exports to the market. The prospect of a peace agreement strengthens forecasts for increased supply, which further pulls oil prices down.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradually increasing production quotas, the OPEC+ alliance decided to halt further increases in the first quarter of 2026. The cartel is displaying caution amid the risk of market oversaturation and expresses readiness to adjust production if necessary, although no official announcements regarding unplanned measures have been made thus far.
Collectively, these factors have resulted in oil now being significantly cheaper than at the beginning of the year. There is a high probability that Brent and WTI will finish 2025 at the lowest levels seen since mid-2020. The decline in commodity prices has already had a noticeable impact on the refined products segment.
Refined Products and Refining
By year's end, refined product prices have declined following the drop in crude oil prices. Gasoline and diesel have become cheaper in most regions worldwide. In the United States, retail gasoline prices decreased across nearly all states as the holiday season approached, easing the burden on consumers. European refiners, having previously shifted to alternative feedstocks in place of Russian oil, are assured of stable supplies. Global refineries are maintaining high processing levels, taking advantage of cheaper crude, although fuel demand remains moderate. Overall, refining margins continue to remain resilient, and there is no shortage of gasoline or diesel in the global market.
In Russia, after a sharp spike in gasoline prices in early autumn, government measures (including temporary export restrictions) have cooled the market. By December, wholesale and retail fuel prices within the country stabilized, reducing social tensions and risks for the domestic refined products market.
Gas Market and LNG
The gas market is experiencing a paradoxical situation: despite an early and cold start to winter, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decrease. Dutch TTF hub quotations have fallen below €30 per MWh — the lowest level since spring 2024, nearly 90% lower than the peak values from the 2022 crisis and 45% lower than prices at the beginning of the current year. The primary reason is an unprecedented influx of liquefied natural gas, compensating for reduced pipeline supplies from Russia. Underground gas storage facilities in the European Union are approximately 75% full. While this is below average multi-year levels for December, along with record LNG imports, it is sufficient to maintain stable prices even during cold spells.
- Europe: Record LNG import volumes have allowed gas prices to decrease, even amid rising consumption during the heating season. In 2025, more than half of European LNG imports were supplied by suppliers from the USA, redirecting tankers from Asian markets. Consequently, the spread between high European prices and lower American prices has narrowed significantly.
- USA: In North America, gas futures were rising on forecasts of anomalously cold weather. At the Henry Hub, prices climbed above $5 per MMBtu due to the threat posed by the polar vortex and increased heating demand. However, domestic gas production in the USA remains at record highs, which tempers price rises as weather normalizes.
- Asia: By year's end, the Asian gas market is relatively balanced. Demand in key countries in the region (China, South Korea, Japan) has been moderate, allowing some additional LNG to be redirected to Europe. Prices in Asian hubs, such as JKM, have remained stable and avoided sharp fluctuations as the competition for gas shipments between Europe and Asia has significantly weakened compared to the situation in 2022.
Thus, the global gas market enters winter more confidently than a year ago. Current inventories and flexible supply channels are adequate to meet needs even during severe cold spells. The maneuverability of the LNG market plays a key role: tankers can be rapidly redirected to the needed region, smoothing local imbalances. If this season's temperature patterns do not deviate from the norm, the pricing situation for gas consumers will remain favorable.
Coal Sector
The traditional coal industry reached a historical peak in consumption in 2025; however, a slowdown is anticipated ahead. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption increased by approximately 0.5% — reaching a record 8.85 billion tons. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation worldwide, but its share in the energy balance is expected to gradually decline: analysts predict that global coal demand will plateau, followed by a decrease by 2030 due to the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear generation. Regional dynamics, however, differ:
- India: Coal consumption has declined (for only the third time in the last 50 years) due to an unusually strong monsoon season. Abundant rainfall has increased generation at hydropower plants, thereby reducing demand for electricity from coal-fired power plants.
- USA: In contrast, coal usage has increased in the United States. This was aided by high natural gas prices in the first half of the year and political support for the coal industry. The new presidential administration in Washington suspended the decommissioning of several coal-fired power plants, temporarily boosting demand for coal for electricity generation.
- China: The largest consumer of coal in the world maintained its consumption levels at last year's marks. China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined. However, gradual reductions in consumption are expected there by the end of the decade, as colossal capacities for wind, solar, and nuclear power come online.
Thus, 2025 is likely to be the peak year for the global coal industry. Moving forward, increased competition from gas (where feasible) and particularly renewable energy sources will push coal out of the energy balance of many countries. However, in the short term, coal remains in demand in developing Asian economies, where the growth in energy consumption still outpaces the construction of new clean capacities.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
The electricity sector continues to transform under the influence of climate agendas and fluctuating fuel prices. In 2025, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in global electricity generation reached new heights: many countries have introduced record capacities of solar and wind power plants. For example, China significantly increased solar generation, while Europe and the USA have commissioned new offshore wind farms and large solar projects, spurred on by government support and private investments. By the end of the year, global investments in green energy remain high, nearly matching investments in fossil fuels.
However, the rapid growth of RES raises the challenge of ensuring the resilience of energy systems. This winter, Europe has experienced the impact of variable weather: periods of low wind and short daylight have increased reliance on traditional generation. At the beginning of the season, EU countries were forced to temporarily ramp up gas and coal generation due to an anticyclone that caused a drop in wind power output, leading to spikes in electricity prices in certain regions. Nevertheless, thanks to the growth of RES capacities and a significant share of gas in the energy balance, serious power supply issues have been avoided. States and energy companies are also actively investing in energy storage systems and grid modernization to smooth peak loads and integrate renewable energy.
The climate commitments of countries continue to set the direction for the industry’s development. At the recent global climate summit (COP30) in Brazil, calls for accelerating the energy transition were expressed. Several countries agreed to triple the installation of RES capacities by 2030 and significantly improve energy efficiency. Simultaneously, interest in nuclear energy is reviving across many regions: new nuclear power plants are being built, and operational plants' lifetimes are being extended to ensure base load generation without carbon emissions. Overall, the electric power sector is moving towards a cleaner and more sustainable future, although the transitional period requires a delicate balance between supply reliability and environmental objectives.
Geopolitics and Sanctions
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on global energy markets. The conflict in Eastern Europe and the associated restrictions remain in the spotlight:
- Peace Negotiations: In December, significant progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine has been observed since the conflict began. The USA has expressed readiness to provide Kyiv with security guarantees similar to NATO, while European intermediaries note constructive dialogue advancements. Hopes for a ceasefire have significantly risen, although Moscow states it will not concede territorial claims. Increasing optimism about a potential halt in hostilities has already sparked discussions about the prospects for partial easing of oil and gas sanctions against Russia in the near future.
- Sanction Pressure: At the same time, Western countries signal their readiness to increase pressure if the peace process stalls. Washington has prepared another package of restrictions against the Russian energy sector, which may be implemented if negotiations break down. Earlier in autumn, the USA and the UK expanded sanctions against oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating their access to investments and technologies. In Europe, there is also an escalation of legal measures against Russian energy infrastructure: in early December, a Dutch court, at the request of Ukrainian parties, seized assets of the operator of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, demonstrating a new level of sanction pressure on export routes.
- Infrastructure Risks: Combat actions and sabotage continue to pose threats to energy facilities. The Ukrainian side has intensified drone attacks on oil infrastructure deep within Russian territory last week. For instance, fires have been reported at refineries in Krasnodar region and along the Volga due to drone strikes. Although these incidents only marginally decrease overall fuel supply, they highlight the ongoing military risks in the sector until a durable peace is achieved.
- Venezuela: In Latin America, geopolitics also impacts the oil market. Following partial easing of the sanctions regime against Venezuela in autumn, the USA has tightened control over compliance with the terms of the deal. In December, an incident occurred involving the detention of a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil, suspected of violating licensing agreements. The state-owned company PDVSA faced demands from buyers to increase discounts and revise supply terms. This complicated Caracas's efforts to boost exports, even against the backdrop of the recent US concession to temporarily increase production in exchange for political concessions from the Venezuelan authorities.
Overall, the sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West, along with other international disagreements, continues to inject uncertainty into the global energy sector. Investors are closely monitoring political events, as any changes — from breakthroughs in peace dialogue to the imposition of new restrictions — can significantly affect oil, gas, and other energy prices.
Corporate News and Projects
Major energy companies and infrastructure projects are concluding the year with several important decisions and events:
- Aramco Enters the Indian Market: Saudi Aramco has renewed plans to invest in a major refinery in India. The company is close to acquiring a stake in the large West Coast Refinery project, aiming to establish a foothold in the rapidly growing Indian market and ensuring long-term sales channels for its oil.
- New Project in Guyana: A consortium led by ExxonMobil has approved the development of another large offshore field in Guyana, targeting production startup by 2028. Oil production in Guyana continues to grow rapidly, reinforcing the country's position as one of the most dynamically emerging new oil producers.
- Record Wind Farm in the North Sea: The construction of the world’s largest offshore wind farm, Dogger Bank, with a total capacity of 3.6 GW has been completed in the North Sea. This project, realized by a consortium of European energy companies, can supply electricity to up to 6 million households in the UK. This milestone showcases the potential of large-scale green projects and represents a significant step in renewable energy development.
- Transnational Oil Transit: Russian Transneft and Kazakh KazTransOil have signed a contract for the transportation of Kazakh oil through Russian territory in 2026. This agreement ensures continued cooperation in hydrocarbon exports despite geopolitical challenges and utilizes the existing pipeline infrastructure.
Overall, players in the oil, gas, and energy sectors are adapting to the new market realities. Some are reevaluating their asset portfolios in light of geopolitical risks and changing market conditions (such as Aramco, which is venturing into new markets), while others are seizing the favorable situation to increase production and implement projects (like ExxonMobil with partners in Guyana). Simultaneously, investments continue in both traditional oil and gas areas as well as in the energy transition — from wind energy to hydrogen technologies. The industry stands before the necessity of finding a balance between short-term profitability and long-term decarbonization goals, a choice that is determining the key strategic decisions of companies as they approach 2026.
