Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy as of November 26, 2025: Oil, Gas, Renewables, Energy Policy, Sanctions, Fuel and Energy Complex, Global Commodity Markets, Analytics, and Key Events of the Day.
Global Oil Market
Following a recent sell-off, oil prices are holding at their lowest levels in recent months. Brent crude is trading around $62–63 per barrel, while WTI is priced at approximately $58. The market is under pressure from a combination of factors: a significant increase in oil inventories in the U.S., cautious demand forecasts from the IEA and EIA, as well as geopolitical signals. Intensified negotiations for a peaceful settlement to the conflict in Ukraine have alleviated concerns over supply disruptions, further pulling prices down.
- Inventories and Demand: According to the U.S. Department of Energy, commercial crude oil inventories in the country rose by 6.4 million barrels over the week—significantly exceeding expectations. Analysts point to the risk of market oversupply: the IEA estimates that by 2026, global oil supply could exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day, leading to a substantial surplus.
- OPEC+ Decision: At the beginning of November, OPEC+ countries agreed only to a modest increase in production—by 137,000 barrels per day in December—while deciding to refrain from further increasing quotas in the first quarter of 2026 due to concerns about oversupply. At the same time, new Western sanctions are complicating the growth of Russian oil production: restrictions from the U.S. and the UK have primarily hit "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL," curtailing investments.
Sanctions and Russian Oil Exports
As of November 21, U.S. sanctions against the largest Russian oil companies came into effect. These measures targeting "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" could theoretically take up to 48 million barrels of Russian oil off the global market. Russian export flows are already facing disruptions: several tankers carrying Urals, ESPO, and other grades have been redirected or delayed en route. Indian refineries have begun chartering tankers for crude shipments from the Persian Gulf to replace Russian volumes.
In parallel, financial institutions in Asia are seeking ways to circumvent restrictions. Sources report that Indian banks have developed a special payment mechanism allowing for Russian oil transactions in alternative currencies—UAE dirhams and Chinese yuan—provided that sellers are not under sanctions. Previously, some Indian processors temporarily suspended purchases; however, the increase in the discount on Urals to about $7 per barrel is prompting them to resume imports under new conditions. India's largest oil refiner, Indian Oil, has already stated that it will continue to purchase Russian crude from companies that are not sanctioned.
- Price Implications: Currently, sanctions pressure has resulted in Russian oil being sold at record discounts, stimulating demand from Asian refineries for Urals grade. However, starting January 16, the EU will impose a complete ban on the import of oil products made from Russian crude (the ICE exchange will cease to accept "Russian" diesel and gasoline for delivery). This is expected to create a fuel market shortage and support high-margin revenues for alternative supply providers.
Diesel Market and Oil Products
Tension continues in the oil products market: diesel fuel prices remain elevated. Over the past week, diesel quotes have only slightly retreated, staying approximately 8% higher than at the end of October. The main reason is the global diesel shortage. Russia, the world's second-largest diesel fuel exporter, has reduced shipments to record low levels amid sanctions and attacks on refineries. In October, Russian diesel exports fell to around 669,000 barrels per day—the lowest since 2020. Previously, "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" together supplied approximately 270,000 barrels of diesel per day (about 37% of Russian exports and 9% of global supply)—these volumes have now effectively dropped from the market.
European and Asian refineries, which previously relied on cheap Russian crude, are forced to restructure their supply chains and cut back on purchases from Russia. As a result, diesel refining margins have significantly increased. American refiners have ramped up diesel exports to Europe, increasing their profit per barrel by approximately $12. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, it is unlikely that the EU will quickly lift restrictions on Russian energy resources—therefore, diesel shortages and high fuel costs will persist.
European Gas Market
Natural gas prices in Europe continued to decline to multi-year lows. On November 24, gas prices at the TTF hub for December delivery dropped below €30 per MWh (approximately $355 per 1,000 m³)—the first time since May 2024. Market pressure has been caused by optimism around a potential peace plan for Ukraine. Market participants speculate that if progress is made in the peace initiatives, the EU may soften its approach to purchasing Russian LNG, removing part of the "risk premium" from prices. It is noteworthy that before the conflict, Russia accounted for up to 45% of the EU's gas imports, and this share has now been reduced to about 10%. Although Brussels has formally aimed to completely halt gas imports from Russia by the end of 2027, some countries (Hungary, Slovakia) are contesting the stringent timeline.
- Inventories and Demand: Despite low prices, Europe is experiencing record gas withdrawal rates from underground storage. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, between November 19–21, European countries were extracting unprecedented volumes of gas from UGS facilities. By November 21, the storage fill level had dropped below 80%—one of the lowest figures for this date in the last decade. If prolonged cold weather occurs, current storage levels may not suffice to meet stable demand from residential and industrial consumers.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Imports from the U.S.: In 2025, the EU set a new record for U.S. energy imports—around $200 billion, including LNG, oil, and nuclear fuel. The share of the U.S. in EU LNG imports has risen to 60%. Brussels is actively signing long-term contracts for U.S. LNG supply, further reducing dependence on other sources.
- Projects and Risks: New challenges are emerging in the global LNG market. In Australia, LNG industry unions have initiated a strike at the under-construction Pluto expansion project (operated by Woodside Energy), demanding wage parity with a similar Wheatstone project. If the strike proceeds, the launch of additional LNG export capacities will be delayed at least until the end of 2026. Such disruptions are intensifying tensions in the gas market: strikes at Australian export terminals already caused price spikes in 2023 due to supply flow reallocations.
Energy Partnership Between Russia and China
The VII Russia-China Energy Business Forum has commenced in Beijing, marking a new stage of cooperation between the two countries in the fuel and energy complex. Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a welcome address to forum participants, expressed readiness to deepen comprehensive energy partnership, emphasizing the contribution of bilateral cooperation to the stability of global energy chains. The Russian side highlighted China's impressive achievements: Igor Sechin, CEO of "Rosneft," described the PRC as the only remaining "industrial superpower" in the world and a great energy power. According to him, China is shaping a new landscape for global energy by integrating traditional and alternative energy sources.
Examples of China's leadership in the sector are striking. China's power generation now exceeds that of the U.S. by more than double (two decades ago, the situation was reversed). China accounts for about a third of all global energy investments—expected to reach $900 billion in 2025, which is 30% more than total investments in North America and 1.5 times greater than Europe's. Rapid electrification and technological advances have pushed China to the forefront of global energy consumption. To meet growing needs, Beijing is placing special emphasis on energy security and infrastructure issues.
A practical step in developing cooperation has been progress in the gas sector. "Gazprom" and China's CNPC have begun the joint construction of a cross-border section of the gas pipeline along the "Far Eastern" route—across the Ussuri River at the border of the two countries. This project, implemented under a 2023 agreement, envisions the supply of up to 12 billion cubic meters of gas to China per year (after a recent increase in the planned volume from the initial 10 billion). To facilitate this, a 25-kilometer offshoot from the "Sakhalin - Khabarovsk - Vladivostok" pipeline will be constructed, equipped with a gas dehydrating unit and a measurement station near Dalnerechensk. Export shipments through the new pipeline are expected to commence by the end of January 2027, strengthening the position of Russian gas in the Asian market.
Energy Policy and Renewable Energy Sources
- COP30 (UN): At the UN climate summit COP30 in Brazil, participating countries failed to agree on a rapid phase-out of fossil resources. A clause on the gradual cessation of oil, gas, and coal use was omitted from the final declaration, meaning that there is no longer an official commitment to move away from these types of fuel. This wording became a compromise between states insisting on a smooth transition to clean energy and major hydrocarbon-exporting nations defending their economic interests.
- G20 Declaration: The leaders of the G20 at the summit in Johannesburg paid special attention to energy security. In their joint statement, they underlined the need for stable supplies of fossil fuel and indicated that the sanction risks for the energy market should be taken into account. At the same time, G20 countries reaffirmed their commitment to climate goals: the document enshrined the aim to triple total renewable energy capacities and double the energy efficiency of the global economy by 2030.
- Renewable Energy Projects: Despite political disagreements, various countries continue to implement "green" energy projects. In Germany, Statkraft has launched the largest hybrid power plant in the country, combining 46.4 MW of solar panels with a 57 MWh storage battery. The facility can supply electricity to about 14,000 homes, reducing CO₂ emissions by approximately 32,000 tons per year. In India, ReNew Power has attracted $331 million from the Asian Development Bank to construct a 2.8 GW hybrid energy complex (solar and wind stations with an energy storage block) capable of delivering 300 MW of stable "green" power round-the-clock. Such projects simultaneously enhance energy system reliability and promote the global energy transition.
Major Deals and Investments
- Saudi Aramco: Saudi Arabia's state oil company plans one of the largest deals in its history—the sale of stakes in export terminals and oil storage facilities. This operation is expected to attract over $10 billion, which will be directed towards production development, including the large-scale Jafurah gas project. Meanwhile, Aramco continues its active investment program to expand oil and gas production capacities, adhering to a strategy of increasing market presence.
Overall, by the end of November 2025, global energy markets remain in a state of unstable equilibrium influenced by diverse factors. On one hand, progress in peace negotiations and enhanced international cooperation (for instance, deepening the partnership between Russia and China) is reducing the geopolitical premium in prices and alleviating disruption risks. On the other hand, sanctions barriers and structural problems in certain segments (especially in diesel and gas markets) continue to sustain local shortages and high volatility. Participants in the fuel and energy complex must closely monitor the progress of diplomatic initiatives, regulatory decisions, and major investment projects—these will dictate the future dynamics of demand, supply, and prices in the sector.
