Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy as of November 25, 2025: Oil, Gas, Renewable Energy Sources, Energy Policy, Sanctions, Fuel and Energy Complex, Global Commodity Markets, Analytics, and Key Events of the Day.
Global Oil Market
Following a sell-off in previous days, oil prices have stabilized at minimal levels. Brent is trading around $62–63 per barrel, while WTI is approximately $58. This can be attributed to a combination of factors: an increase in oil inventories in the U.S., moderate demand prospects according to the IEA and EIA, as well as geopolitical news. Intensified negotiations regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine have eased concerns about supply disruptions and exerted downward pressure on prices.
- Inventories and Demand: U.S. oil inventories rose by 6.4 million barrels in the week leading up to early November—significantly above forecast. According to the IEA, global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day in 2026, posing a risk of a substantial surplus in the market.
- OPEC+ Decision: At the beginning of November, OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production by only 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend further increases until the first quarter of 2026 (due to concerns over supply excess). At the same time, new Western sanctions complicate the expansion of Russian production: restrictions from the U.S. and the UK have primarily impacted Rosneft and Lukoil.
Sanctions and Russian Oil Exports
Since November 21, U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil have come into effect. These measures may remove up to 48 million barrels of Russian oil from the global market. Russian export flows are facing logistical challenges: some tankers carrying Urals, ESPO, and other grades have been redirected or delayed en route. Indian refineries are already reserving vessels for oil shipments from the Persian Gulf in place of Russian supplies.
- Price Consequences: In the short term, Russian oil is being sold at significant discounts, which has stimulated Asian demand for Urals. However, starting January 16, the EU will completely ban the import of fuel derived from Russian oil (the ICE exchange will cease to accept “Russian” diesel and gasoline). This will create a shortfall in oil products and sustain high margins for sellers of alternative supplies.
Diesel Market and Petroleum Products
Unlike crude oil, diesel prices remain high: although they fell slightly over the past week, they are still 8% above late October levels. This is due to a diesel shortage in the global market. Russia, the second-largest exporter of diesel, has cut supplies to record low levels due to attacks on refineries and sanctions: in October, exports totaled only 669,000 barrels per day (the lowest since 2020). Rosneft and Lukoil previously accounted for about 270,000 barrels of diesel per day (37% of Russian exports and 9% of global)—now these volumes are diminished.
European and Asian refineries, which previously received inexpensive Russian oil, are already restructuring logistics and reducing purchases from Russia. As a result, margins for diesel production have increased: U.S. refineries have ramped up diesel exports to Europe, boosting their profits by approximately 12% per barrel. Even in the event of a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, the lifting of European restrictions is unlikely to occur, meaning diesel prices will remain elevated.
European Gas Market
Gas prices in Europe have dropped sharply: on November 24, TTF gas prices for December delivery fell below €30 per MWh (≈$355 per 1,000 m³), marking the lowest levels since May 2024. This decline is linked to optimism surrounding negotiations regarding Ukraine. Market participants believe that should peace initiatives succeed, the EU may abandon plans for a hard exit from Russian LNG, easing some of the reliability premium on supply. It’s noteworthy that in pre-war years, Russia accounted for up to 45% of EU gas imports; today, this share is around 10%. Meanwhile, the EU has adopted a plan to completely halt imports from Russia by the end of 2027, which is being contested by Hungary and Slovakia.
- Gazprom Warns: Gazprom has indicated record withdrawal rates of gas from European underground storage facilities. According to the Gas Infrastructure Europe association, European countries were extracting unprecedented volumes of gas daily from November 19 to 21. By November 21, storage filling in the EU had fallen below 80%—one of the lowest figures in the past decade. In the event of prolonged cold weather, existing reserves may not be sufficient to consistently supply residential and industrial consumers.
LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)
- Imports from the U.S.: By the end of 2025, the EU has set a record in purchasing American energy resources—around $200 billion (including LNG, nuclear fuel, and oil). The share of American LNG in the total gas imports to the EU has risen to 60%. The EU is actively signing long-term contracts for LNG supplies from the U.S., further reducing dependence on alternative sources.
- Projects and Risks: New challenges are emerging in the global LNG market. Trade unions in Australia have filed for a strike at the expanding Pluto facility (Woodside Energy) due to significant wage disparities compared to the Wheatstone project. If the strike occurs, the start of additional LNG supplies from this project may be delayed until the end of 2026. Such disruptions heighten tensions in the global gas market: similar events in 2023 contributed to rising gas prices due to the reallocation of supplies.
Energy Policy and Renewable Energy Sources
- COP30 (UN): At the climate summit in Brazil, the final declaration omitted a phased-out approach to oil, gas, and coal. This indicates that the official document no longer contains calls for a cessation of fossil fuels. Such wording reflects a compromise between countries advocating for a gradual transition to clean energy and major oil and gas exporters insisting their interests be considered.
- G20 Declaration: Leaders of the G20 at the summit in Johannesburg emphasized the necessity for stable supplies of fossil fuels, noting that sanction risks must be taken into account. In a joint statement, the importance of reliable energy supply chains and equitable distribution of benefits from resource development was highlighted. At the same time, G20 countries reaffirmed their ambitious climate goals: to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.
- Renewable Energy Projects: Despite political discussions, “green” projects are advancing. Statkraft has launched Germany's largest hybrid power plant: 46.4 MW of solar panels with a 57 MWh storage battery (providing power to around 14,000 homes, saving 32,000 tons of CO₂ annually). In India, ReNew Power has secured $331 million from the ADB to build a 2.8 GW hybrid facility (solar + wind installations with storage), capable of consistently delivering 300 MW of “green” energy. These projects enhance the security of energy systems and promote the energy transition.
Major Deals and Investments
- Saudi Aramco: Saudi Arabia's state oil company is preparing one of the largest deals in history: the sale of stakes in its export terminals and storage facilities. The deal is expected to bring in over $10 billion, which is intended for the development of production, including the Jafurah gas project. Nevertheless, Aramco continues to actively invest in expanding oil and gas production.
Overall, as of November 25, 2025, global energy resource markets are at a crossroads of significant changes. On one hand, hopes for a peaceful resolution of the crisis alleviate some geopolitical risks and exert downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, sanctions and operational challenges sustain deficits in certain segments (especially diesel and gas) and lead to high volatility. Market participants should closely monitor the progress of negotiations, regulatory decisions, and global energy strategies, as these factors will determine the future dynamics of demand, exports, and prices in the fuel and energy complex.
