Global News of the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of January 31, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Petroleum Products, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex for Investors and Market Participants.
The end of January 2026 is characterized for the global fuel and energy complex by ongoing geopolitical tensions and a significant restructuring of global energy resource flows. Western countries maintain robust sanctions pressure on Russia—the European Union has introduced new restrictions on energy carrier trade. Simultaneously, the escalation of the situation surrounding Iran in the Middle East has raised fears of oil supply disruptions, provoking a sharp rise in prices.
Following several months of relative stability, the global oil market has seen a noticeable spike in prices. The benchmark Brent crude has surpassed $70 per barrel for the first time since July, while WTI has approached $65, reaching six-month highs amid increased risks. The European gas market is adapting to winter under conditions effectively absent of Russian gas, and remains stable: high storage levels and diversification of supply sources have avoided shortages. However, by the end of January, gas reserves in the EU’s underground storage facilities have dropped to approximately 44% of total capacity—the lowest level for this date since 2022—and may fall below 30% by spring, presenting a serious challenge for replenishment.
The energy transition is gaining momentum: in 2025, record capacity of renewable energy sources was brought online globally, even though the reliable operation of energy systems still requires reliance on traditional resources. For example, a recent anomalous cold spell in the USA forced energy suppliers to sharply increase generation at coal-fired power plants to meet peak demand. In Asia, demand for coal and hydrocarbon materials remains high, supporting raw material markets despite climate agendas. In Russia, following a spike in fuel prices last autumn, authorities extended emergency measures limiting the export of petroleum products to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials sectors as of late January 2026.
Oil Market: Prices Rise Amid Middle Eastern Risks
Global oil prices significantly increased by the end of January. Brent quotes are holding above $70 per barrel (with highs around $71), while WTI is trading around $65—these are the highest levels since mid-2025. This rise followed a period of relative stability in the second half of 2025 when excess supply and moderate demand kept prices around $60. The primary driver of the current rally is geopolitics: the escalation of the conflict in Iran and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for global oil trade—have caused a risk premium to be built into prices.
Nevertheless, fundamental factors in the oil market continue to signal a significant supply presence. OPEC+ countries increased output in the second half of 2025 in an effort to regain lost market share, leading to a surplus of around 2 million barrels per day. Additional volumes are coming from outside the cartel: the USA has partially lifted restrictions on production in Venezuela, allowing its oil to return to the market, while American production is close to record levels. Global oil demand growth has slowed against the backdrop of a weakening global economy (especially the slowdown in China) and energy-saving effects following previous years' pricing shocks. Several analysts predict that without new disruptions, the average price of Brent in 2026 may remain around $60–62 per barrel—due to the ongoing supply surplus. In the short term, however, price dynamics will depend on the development of the geopolitical situation. A possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could push prices even higher, while progress in negotiations (for instance, regarding the Iranian or Ukrainian issues) could ease market tensions. Additionally, financial factors are at play: expectations of a loosening of the US Federal Reserve's policies weaken the dollar, temporarily supporting commodity prices, including oil. Thus, oil is trading in an elevated range due to geopolitical risks, but stable supply levels may keep further price increases in check.
Gas Market: Winter Stability and Stock Replenishment Challenges
The European natural gas market is entering the final phase of winter relatively calmly, thanks to built reserves and new supply routes. By the start of the heating season, EU countries filled their underground storage facilities (UGS) to over 90%, providing a buffer for the cold months. As of late January, storage levels have declined to approximately 44% of total capacity, the lowest figure for this time of year since 2022. Nevertheless, exchange prices for gas remain comparatively moderate and significantly lower than peaks from the previous winter. This is supported by several factors: mild weather for most of the season, record purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the global market, and stable pipeline supplies from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan. Thanks to supply source diversification, Europe is currently successfully covering demand, compensating for the absence of Russian gas.
However, the EU gas sector faces serious challenges ahead. If the current trend continues, by March, storage levels could drop to around 30%, and European companies will need to inject around 60 billion cubic meters of gas to return to last year's filling levels. Ensuring such volumes of replenishment without traditional Russian supplies is no easy task. In anticipation of the next heating season, the EU is actively increasing infrastructure for receiving LNG (new regasification terminals are being built) and signing long-term contracts with alternative suppliers. Additionally, in January, the strategic decision was confirmed by the EU to completely cease imports of Russian gas (both pipeline and LNG) by 2027, ending years of dependence. The volumes lost are planned to be replaced primarily through the global LNG market: the International Energy Agency expects global LNG supplies to reach a new record in 2026 (around 185 billion m3) due to the launch of export projects in the USA, Canada, and Qatar. Meanwhile, the price situation raises questions: the TTF gas hub is experiencing an anomalous backwardation price structure (summer futures are more expensive than winter), which lowers incentives for gas storage. Experts warn that without specific support measures, such a market condition could complicate preparations for the next winter. Overall, the European gas market is now significantly more resilient than during the 2022 crisis, but maintaining this resilience will require further supply diversification, the development of storage systems, and possibly coordinated actions by authorities to stimulate the necessary reserves.
International Politics: Sanctions and Energy
The sanctions confrontation between Moscow and the West continues to shape the landscape of global energy. At the end of 2025, the European Union approved its 19th sanctions package, a significant portion of which targets the fuel and energy sector—from tightening the price cap on Russian oil to bans on the export of equipment and services for extraction. The United States and its allies have also indicated their readiness to increase pressure: new sanction measures, including mechanisms for confiscating frozen Russian assets to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, are being discussed. Although some channels of dialogue between governments remain, there are currently no real signals for easing sanctions. For markets, this means the continued division of energy carrier flows into "permitted" and "alternative" sources. Russian oil and gas continue to be redirected to Asia at discounted prices—to countries such as China, India, and Turkey—while European consumers have fully shifted to other sources. In effect, two parallel pricing zones have formed: the western one, where there is a refusal of Russian energy carriers, and an alternative one, where Russian barrels and cubic meters find demand but at a reduced price and with elongated logistics. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring the sanctions policy, as any changes immediately impact supply routes and pricing dynamics.
In addition to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, sanctions against other states remain influential factors in the energy landscape. In January, the USA and the EU expanded sanction lists against Iran—amidst repressions against protesters and disputes over its nuclear program—complicating the trading of Iranian oil and adding uncertainty to the market. At the same time, the sanctions regime regarding Venezuela is gradually being adjusted: following the easing of American restrictions in autumn 2023, the Venezuelan oil industry has started to increase production, and major companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.) are exploring new projects in the country. This is restoring part of the previously lost heavy oil volumes to the global market. Geopolitical barriers also impact corporate deals: for instance, the American investment fund Carlyle Group has agreed to acquire a majority of Lukoil's overseas assets, which the second-largest oil company in Russia had to put up for sale due to sanctions. This example illustrates how international players are reshaping their strategies and assets under the pressure of sanctions. Overall, the energy sector remains a focal point in global politics: sanctions, conflicts, and diplomatic resolutions directly determine global flows of oil and gas, amplifying the role of political risks in the investment decisions of energy companies.
Energy Transition: Records and Balance
The global transition to clean energy in 2025 was marked by unprecedented growth in renewable generation. In many countries, record new capacities of solar and wind power plants were brought online:
- EU: approximately 85–90 GW of renewable energy sources added in a year;
- USA: renewable energy share surpassed 30% in overall energy balance for the first time;
- China: tens of gigawatts of new "green" power plants launched, breaking national records in renewable energy installation.
The rapid growth of the renewable energy sector raises questions about the reliability of power systems. During periods of calm weather or lack of sunlight, backup capacities of traditional power plants are still required to meet peak demand and prevent supply disruptions. For instance, during a severe cold snap in the USA in January 2026, grid operators were forced to increase electricity generation at coal-fired plants by over 30% to meet the sharp rise in consumption—this case highlighted the importance of having sufficient backup power reserves in extreme conditions. This is why large-scale energy storage projects are actively being implemented worldwide: large battery farms are being constructed for electricity storage, and technologies for energy accumulation in the form of hydrogen and other carriers are being explored. The development of storage systems will help smooth out fluctuations in renewable energy generation and enhance the stability of power systems as the share of renewables grows.
Energy companies, meanwhile, are seeking a balance between environmental goals and financial profitability. The experience of BP, which in 2025 announced a reduction in investments in renewable energy and the write-off of several billion dollars in "green" assets, showed that even industry giants need to adjust their strategies. Despite the rapid growth of the clean sector, traditional oil and gas business still yields the majority of profits, and shareholders are demanding a balanced approach. "Green" projects need to be developed without compromising the financial stability of companies. The energy transition is continuing at high speed, but the main lesson of 2025 is the need for a more balanced strategy that combines accelerated adoption of renewables with ensuring the reliability of power systems and investment payback in the sector.
Coal: High Demand in Asia
The global coal market in 2025 remained buoyant despite global goals to reduce coal use. The primary reason is the consistently high demand in Asia. Countries like China and India continue to burn enormous volumes of coal for electricity generation and industrial needs, offsetting the decline in consumption in Western economies. China now accounts for nearly half of the world’s coal consumption and, even producing over 4 billion tons annually, it must increase imports during peak demand periods. India is also ramping up its own production, but due to rapid economic growth, it is forced to purchase significant volumes of fuel abroad—primarily from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia.
The high Asian demand supports coal prices at relatively high levels. Major exporters—from Indonesia and Australia to South Africa—saw revenue increases in 2025 due to stable orders from China, India, and other regional countries. In Europe, by contrast, after a temporary spike in coal use in 2022–2023, its share is again declining due to the rapid development of renewable energy and the return to operation of several nuclear power plants. Overall, despite the climate agenda, coal is expected to retain a noticeable share of the global energy balance in the coming years, although investments in new coal capacity are gradually decreasing. Governments and companies are striving to maintain a balance: meeting current coal demand, especially in developing countries, while simultaneously accelerating the transition to cleaner energy sources.
The Russian Market: Restrictions and Stabilization
Since autumn 2025, the Russian government has intervened manually in regulating the fuel market, restraining price growth in the domestic market. After wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel reached record levels in August, authorities introduced a temporary ban on the export of key petroleum products, which has been extended to February 28, 2026. The restrictions apply to the export of gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, and gas oil. These measures have already had a noticeable effect: by winter, wholesale prices for motor fuel within the country have fallen by tens of percent from peak levels. The growth of retail prices has significantly slowed, and by the end of the year, the situation at gas stations has stabilized—gas stations are well-stocked, and panic buying from consumers has ceased.
For oil companies and oil refining plants (ORPs), such restrictions mean lost profits in foreign markets; however, authorities require businesses to "tighten their belts" for the sake of maintaining price stability domestically. The production cost of oil at most Russian fields remains low, so even with Russian export oil priced below $40 per barrel, there are no direct losses, allowing profitability to be maintained. However, the decline in export revenue threatens the execution of new projects, which require higher global prices and access to foreign markets for profitability. The government refrains from direct subsidies to the sector, stating that the situation is under control and that energy companies are still earning profits even with reduced exports. The domestic fuel and energy sector is adapting to new conditions. The main task for 2026 is to maintain a balance between keeping domestic energy carrier prices in check and supporting export revenues, which are critical for the budget and industry development.
