Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News for Thursday, January 15, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, and Refineries. Key events in the global energy market, trends, and factors for investors and industry participants.
Global oil and gas markets at the beginning of 2026 are showing signs of an increasing oversupply, while renewable energy continues its record growth rates. Oil prices remain under pressure due to vigorous output growth in the U.S. and other regions, with demand for hydrocarbons limited by a slowdown in the global economy. Concurrently, governments and companies are aggressively increasing investments in "clean" energy, leading to a historic decline in coal's share of the energy mix and the first drop in coal generation in China and India in over half a century. Under these conditions, investors and energy sector participants are analyzing the balance of power between fossil fuel oversupply and the prospects of energy transition.
Global Oil Market
In January, Brent crude is trading around $60-65 per barrel, while American WTI is about $58-60. In the fourth quarter of 2025, prices decreased from the peak levels of the previous year. Experts forecast the average price of Brent in 2026 to be around $60 per barrel, and WTI around $58. At the OPEC+ meeting in January (January 4), it was decided not to change the established production quotas to limit market volatility. Despite this, fundamental factors indicate an oversupply:
- A survey of analysts in December 2025 indicated expectations of Brent averaging around $61/barrel, WTI $58/barrel in 2026.
- New production from the U.S., Canada, and Latin America has come online, increasing export volumes to the market.
- Last week, OPEC+ maintained production without cuts, focusing efforts on stabilizing prices rather than artificially inflating them.
- Russia plans to keep oil and gas condensate production at 2024 levels (around 10.3 million barrels per day), adding stable supply.
As a result, the expectation for the balance of supply and demand remains weakly optimistic: even with unplanned disruptions (in Venezuela, Iran, and elsewhere), the oversupply of oil threatens to depress prices. Global oil futures continue to fluctuate amid geopolitical risks and moderate demand forecasts. The oil market is operating under careful monitoring of OPEC strategies, inventory data, and the state of the global economy.
Overproduction and Geopolitics
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2026, oil supply is expected to exceed demand by approximately 3-4 million barrels per day, dubbed a "year of global oversupply." Global production has significantly increased in recent years due to shifts in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and the Emirates. On the other hand, OPEC representatives and some producers believe the market is relatively balanced. Key factors contributing to oversupply and risks include:
- The IEA forecasts a global demand deficit of 4% from production, while OPEC anticipates a market close to equilibrium.
- China is actively replenishing strategic oil reserves: purchases on the global spot market have increased, partially absorbing the surplus.
- Global oil stocks on tankers have reached peak levels not seen since the pandemic of 2020, indicating growth in onshore storage.
- Sanctions against Russia and Iran are limiting their oil exports (e.g., American restrictions on tankers), but a significant price increase has yet to occur.
- Local conflicts (strikes in Venezuela, instability in Libya) create uncertainty around supplies, but their impact on the global balance is limited.
Thus, the oversupply of oil in the market continues to exert pressure on prices. Investors are watching for signals regarding additional production cuts: although supply is above demand, a significant easing of OPEC+ policies or new sanctions could alter the situation in the latter half of the year.
Natural Gas and LNG Market
Seasonal demand is keeping prices for natural gas in check. In the U.S., gas at the Henry Hub is trading at levels around $3-4/MMBtu due to a mild winter and excess production. In Europe, prices remain around $10-12/MMBtu (TTF) due to reduced storage levels and heating needs. The international LNG market is also on the brink of oversupply: tens of millions of tons of new export capacity are coming online in the coming years. Key trends in the gas sector include:
- Global LNG exports are sharply expanding: more than 90-100 million tons of new capacity is planned to come online by 2026-2027 (Qatar North Field, Golden Pass, Scarborough, projects in Africa, etc.), leading to a "seller's market" with oversupply.
- Analysts at Bernstein forecast spot LNG prices could decrease from ~$12 to ~$9/MMBtu as new plants come online. The primary burden of falling prices will fall on exporters, while consumers (especially in Asia and Europe) will benefit from cheaper fuel.
- The U.S. remains the largest LNG exporter: by 2026-2029, its share could rise to ~70% of supplies to the EU (up from 58% in 2025), considering EU plans to phase out Russian gas by 2027-2028.
- European gas storage inventories are historically low (around 82% of capacity in October), with a potential drop to 29% by the end of the season amid cold weather, adding volatility to gas prices.
- Production of associated gas is increasing in regions like Perm (U.S.) and others: new pipelines to the coast are boosting gas supply for LNG production and local markets.
Consequently, the gas market is balancing between record supplies and seasonal demand. Asia generates approximately 85% of the growth in LNG demand, but it has stabilized. Europe is importing record volumes of LNG in preparation for phasing out Russian supplies. Despite the oversupply, current cold temperatures and pipeline limitations may keep prices moderate heading into winter.
Coal Sector
Coal generation in key economies is showing signs of stagnation for the first time. An energy analysts' study indicated that in 2025, coal power generation volumes fell in both China and India (by 1.6% and 3.0%, respectively). This was made possible by a record influx of solar and wind capacity that outpaced the growth in electricity demand. Key observations regarding the coal market include:
- For China and India, 2025 marked the first year since 1973 in which total coal generation declined while energy demand was still increasing.
- The reason is the rapid growth of "clean" generation: in just 11 months of 2025, solar and wind generation added about 450 TWh, which overshadowed the 460 TWh growth in demand.
- However, China has been actively importing coal for the heating season: coal imports in December rose by 12% YoY to meet short-term demand and replenish reserves.
- Global coal prices remain high due to limited new mining developments and ongoing demand in certain countries (e.g., South Africa and Southeast Asia).
- The trend of a paradigm shift is evident: as RE technologies continue to grow, coal's share in the energy mix will gradually decline, possibly signaling a peak in coal generation by the end of the decade.
Thus, the coal sector is entering a phase of gradual decline. Despite fluctuations in seasonal demand, the long-term role of coal in global energy is diminishing, while demand for alternative energy sources is increasing.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
Global energy continues to make significant strides towards renewable sources and electrification. In 2025, China set a record for solar and wind capacity installation (totaling over 500 GW of new installations), doubling any previous figures. Nevertheless, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced the forecast for global renewable energy growth by 20% to 2030 (down to 4600 GW), pointing to slowdowns in the U.S. and Europe. Key trends in the electricity sector include:
- Demand for electricity is growing at approximately 4% per year until 2027, driven by a boom in data centers, electric vehicles, and climate control technologies in developing economies.
- Technology improvements: The costs of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries continue to decline, enhancing the competitiveness of renewable energy and electric transport.
- Grid flexibility: Due to increased variable generation, operators are intensifying the adoption of smart grids and new load forecasting tools (e.g., AI-driven consumption forecasts). In the context of capacity constraints, large consumers (data centers) are increasingly investing in on-site generation and storage.
- Government policy: Despite a trend toward reducing support programs in some countries, overall decarbonization plans in most major economies remain intact. China, the EU, and the U.S. are committed to further developing renewables, although the pace may vary.
Therefore, energy systems are balancing between demand growth and the development of renewable technologies. Capacity reserves are increasing, but enhancing the reliability of grids remains a challenge for 2026, as financial and technological constraints hinder a swift transition.
Oil Products and Refining
The oil products market remains tight in the diesel segment and more balanced for gasoline and jet fuel. European refineries are operating at full capacity, with diesel shortages prompting governments to introduce a ban on imports of petroleum products from Russia (effective from 2025) and encouraging increased refining in other regions. Key features include:
- The margin on diesel fuel continues to rise: in 2025, it surged by approximately 30% due to export restrictions from Russia and decreased supply following infrastructure strikes.
- The margin for gasoline and jet fuel is more stable, as global demand for transportation fuels remains consistent; companies are compensating for discrepancies by increasing supplies from the U.S. and Asia.
- Global refinery capacities are hardly expanding: few new major refineries are being built, and existing ones are being upgraded to meet transitional requirements (including heavy oil processing and biofuel production).
- Construction of transnational projects (e.g., pipelines for cheaper grades of oil) has allowed some companies to optimize logistics costs.
- In the future, investors are focusing on the environmental standards of products: there is an increasing implementation of mandatory blends of bio-components and requirements for lower sulfur content, which also affects refinery upgrade plans.
Overall, the oil products segment is characterized by steady demand and structural changes: refiners maintain high utilization rates, while market participants are redirecting some fuel towards the production of more environmentally friendly blends and other products.
Strategies of Major Oil and Gas Companies
Global oil and gas companies continue to adapt strategies to new realities: caution in spending remains alongside readiness for long-term growth in energy demand. Main trends in the corporate sector include:
- Reduction in CAPEX: Major players (Exxon, Chevron, TotalEnergies, etc.) have cut their capital expenditure plans for 2026 by about 10%, optimizing projects and securing savings.
- BP and Shell: BP announced writedowns of $4-5 billion on low-profit projects in the low-carbon energy segment and significantly reduced budgets for "green" initiatives, focusing efforts on oil and gas production.
- Meanwhile, most companies maintain long-term optimism: investments in exploration and development of new fields are shifting towards the late decade (2030s), while production plans remain significant.
- In the Middle East and Asia, national oil companies (Aramco, ADNOC, CNPC, etc.) are increasing capital expenditures in upstream projects, preparing for long-term demand for hydrocarbons.
- Mergers and acquisitions: financially stable companies are considering purchases of competitors' assets to capitalize on current market volatility and strengthen their positions.
Consequently, major oil and gas players demonstrate a balanced approach: in the short term, there is strict cost optimization, while in the long term, there is an expansion of resource bases. This creates conditions for possible consolidation and reassessment of priorities in developing new technologies and assets.
Outlook and Forecasts for 2026
A balanced conclusion to the winter-spring season of 2026 will be critical for the fuel and energy complex. Most analysts believe that the early months of the year will be characterized by oversupply, and price growth prospects will depend on the balance of supply and climate conditions. Key conclusions and expectations include:
- 2026 may become the "year of fuel abundance": the oversupply of oil and gas in the first half of the year will weigh on prices. The average Brent price is expected to hover around $55–60/barrel (WTI around $55), with sharp deviations likely only in the event of new conflicts or supply disruptions.
- Demand for hydrocarbons is limited by modest global economic growth and the acceleration of the transition to alternatives. The electrification of transport and industry is gradually reducing demand growth for oil, while the phasing out of coal for energy is causing long-term shifts in the fuel balance.
- Energy efficiency policies and climate change mitigation are influencing the strategies of countries and companies: alongside ensuring energy security, there is a heightened ambition regarding climate (development of renewables and maintaining fossil fuel reserves as strategic resources).
- By the end of 2026, markets may gain clarity on part of the balance: if rising supplies offset moderate demand, prices may stabilize at a lower level, allowing investors time to rebalance portfolios.
In conclusion, as of January 15, 2026, global energy markets are characterized by a surplus of raw materials that suppress prices, alongside unprecedented growth in "clean" energy. Investors and companies continue to closely monitor the balance between the new "green" paradigm and the classic oil and gas business model, preparing for changes in the structure of global energy distribution.
