Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of January 14, 2026: Prices for Oil and Gas, Sanctions Policy, Balance of Supply and Demand, Refinery Market, Renewable Energy Sources, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector.
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of January 14, 2026, are characterized by increasing geopolitical tensions and ongoing price pressures due to oversupply. Diplomatic efforts for resolution continue, but the conflict surrounding Ukraine remains far from resolved, with the U.S. preparing to intensify sanctions on the export of Russian energy resources. Simultaneously, the oil market remains oversaturated: Brent crude prices hover around $62–63 per barrel—nearly 20% lower than a year ago—reflecting an oversupply and moderate demand. The European gas market demonstrates relative stability: gas reserves in EU storage facilities, although decreasing amid winter's peak, remain above 55% of capacity, keeping prices at moderate levels (~€30/MWh). Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—2025 saw record levels of solar and wind capacity coming online. However, to ensure system reliability, countries remain reluctant to abandon traditional oil, gas, and coal. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodities sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices Low
Global oil prices remain under downward pressure due to an oversupply and insufficient demand. The North Sea benchmark Brent is trading around $63 per barrel, while U.S. WTI hovers near $59. These levels are approximately 15–20% lower than last year's, indicating a continued market correction following the price surge of previous years. A combination of several factors supports the current situation in the oil market:
- Increase in Non-OPEC Production: Global oil supply is increasing due to active production in non-OPEC+ countries. In 2025, imports from Brazil, Guyana, and other nations significantly rose. For example, production in Brazil reached a record 3.8 million barrels per day, while Guyana increased its production to 0.9 million barrels per day, successfully entering new markets for oil exports. Additionally, Iran and Venezuela have slightly boosted exports due to partial easing of restrictions, adding more oil to the global market.
- OPEC+ Cautious Stance: OPEC+ countries are not rushing to cut production again. Despite falling prices, official production quotas remain unchanged following previous reductions. As a result, additional OPEC+ oil lingers in the market, while the organization aims to maintain market share, tolerating lower prices in the short term.
- Demand Slowdown: Global oil demand is growing at more modest rates. Analysts estimate that consumption growth in 2025 amounted to less than 1 million barrels per day, compared to 2–3 million barrels per day the previous year. Economic growth in China and several developed nations has slowed to around 4% per year, limiting fuel consumption increases. High prices in previous years have also encouraged energy conservation measures and a shift to alternative energy sources, cooling demand for hydrocarbons.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: The ongoing conflict and sanctions create conflicting factors for the oil market. On one hand, the risk of supply disruptions due to sanctions or escalations in conflict supports a premium on prices. On the other hand, the lack of apparent supply disruptions and reports of ongoing negotiations between major powers reduce fears among market participants. Consequently, prices fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, lacking momentum for either increase or decline.
Overall, supply currently exceeds demand, creating a situation in the oil market that is close to oversupply. Global commercial inventories of oil and oil products continue to grow. Brent and WTI prices remain firmly below the highs of 2022–2023. Many investors and oil companies are factoring "low" prices into their strategies: several forecasts indicate that in the first quarter of 2026, the average Brent price might drop to $55–60 per barrel if the current oversaturation persists. In this environment, oil companies are focusing on cost control and selective investments, prioritizing short-term projects and natural gas ventures.
Natural Gas Market: Europe Navigates Winter Without Crisis
On the gas market, primary attention is focused on Europe, where, amid winter's peak, the situation remains relatively calm. EU countries entered the heating season with high reserves: as of early January, the average filling level of European underground gas storage facilities exceeded 60% (compared to a record 70% last year). Even after several weeks of active gas withdrawals, the storages remain more than half full, providing a safeguard for the energy system. Favorable factors supporting the stability of the European gas market include:
- Record LNG Imports: The European Union is maximizing global liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity. By the end of 2025, total LNG imports into Europe increased by approximately 25%, reaching around 130 billion cubic meters per year, compensating for the cessation of most pipeline gas supplies from Russia. In December, LNG carriers continued to arrive at EU terminals, meeting the increased winter demand.
- Moderate Demand and Mild Weather: This winter in Europe has been relatively mild, and the energy system is managing without extreme loads. Industrial gas consumption has remained subdued due to last year's high prices and energy-saving measures. Wind and solar generation in early winter 2025/26 showed strong performance, which also reduced gas consumption for electricity generation.
- Supply Diversification: The EU has recently diversified its energy import routes. In addition to LNG, pipelines from Norway and North Africa are operating at full capacity. The capacity of terminals and interconnections within Europe has been expanded, allowing for rapid gas redistribution to necessary regions. This smooths local imbalances and prevents price spikes.
Thanks to these factors, gas exchange prices in Europe remain at relatively low levels. Futures on the TTF hub are trading around €30/MWh (approximately $370 per thousand cubic meters)—significantly lower than the peak values during the 2022 crisis. Although prices have recently seen a slight increase (by 7–8%) due to a brief cold snap and maintenance work at some fields, the market remains balanced overall. Moderate gas prices positively affect European industries and electricity generation, lowering enterprise costs and tariff pressure on consumers. Europe is set to navigate the remaining winter months: even if the cold intensifies, the accumulated reserves are likely sufficient to avoid shortages. Analysts estimate that by the end of winter, about 35–40% of gas may remain in storage, significantly above critical levels from previous years. However, some risk is posed by a potential resurgence in Asian demand—competition between Europe and Asia for new LNG supplies may intensify in the second quarter of 2026 if economic recovery in Asian countries continues.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Intensification of U.S. Measures and Lack of Breakthroughs in Negotiations
The geopolitical situation continues to exert a significant influence on energy markets. In recent months, diplomatic efforts have been made to resolve the conflict in Eastern Europe: since November 2025, a series of consultations have taken place between representatives of the U.S., EU, Ukraine, and Russia. However, these negotiations have not yielded tangible progress as of now. Moscow has yet to demonstrate any willingness to compromise, while Kyiv and its allies insist on acceptable security guarantees. Amid the prolonged standoff, Washington signals its readiness to intensify sanctions pressure.
New U.S. Sanctions Bill. In early January, the U.S. administration publicly supported a bipartisan bill proposing strict measures against countries that assist in circumventing sanctions or actively trade with Russia. In particular, secondary sanctions—restrictions against buyers of Russian oil and gas—are proposed. Major importers of Russian energy resources, such as China, India, Turkey, and several other Asian countries, may be affected. Washington signals that if these countries do not reduce purchases from Moscow, they could face restrictions on access to U.S. markets or 100% tariffs on their exports to the U.S. The bill has already received a "green light" from the White House and could soon be put to a vote in Congress. For the global oil and gas market, such a move would be unprecedented: effectively, a portion of buyers could end up under sanctions, potentially redistributing oil trade flows and complicating the pricing situation.
Response and Risks for the Market. Major consumers, primarily China and India, are closely observed. India has long been benefiting from significant discounts on Russian Urals crude oil (up to $5 below Brent prices) in exchange for maintaining purchasing volumes—this "preferential" regime has allowed New Delhi to increase imports of Russian crude and petroleum products. China, for its part, has also ramped up imports from Russia, becoming the primary market for Russian oil following the introduction of the embargo in Europe. The U.S. plans for secondary sanctions evoke strong discontent from Beijing and New Delhi, as these countries declare their intent to defend their energy security. Likely, if the law is passed, they will seek ways to circumvent the new restrictions—such as through transactions in national currencies, shadow fleets of tankers, or processing Russian oil in third countries for re-export. Markets are closely watching developments: sanction threats add uncertainty and could intensify price volatility, especially for Urals crude and the tanker transportation market. So far, existing sanctions remain unchanged, and no significant disruptions in the supply of Russian oil to the global market have been observed—volumes have been redirected to Asia, albeit at a discount.
U.S.-Russia Negotiations. Despite the tough rhetoric, the dialogue channel between Washington and Moscow remains open. Following a leaders' meeting in August 2025 (where it was decided to continue consultations), special representatives from both sides have discussed potential agreement parameters on several occasions. In December, the U.S. side proposed a framework plan regarding Ukraine's security in exchange for a gradual easing of some energy sanctions. However, Moscow insisted on the inclusion of its conditions, including the lifting of certain export restrictions and guarantees against the expansion of NATO military infrastructure. As of now, these differences have not been resolved. Meanwhile, U.S. European allies have expressed their readiness to continue exerting pressure on Russia until the situation improves—new EU restrictions on the maritime transport of Russian oil products above the price ceiling have come into effect. Thus, tensions persist on the political front: the prospects for a swift lifting of sanctions are slim. For investors in the energy sector, this means that sanction risks will continue to be factored into trading operations and investments, especially in projects linked to Russia.
Venezuela: Shift in Course and Potential for Oil Production Growth
Another important event that could affect the long-term balance of power in the oil market is the change in Venezuela. At the end of 2025, the situation surrounding this South American country dramatically changed: the government of Nicolas Maduro effectively lost control after he was detained during a special operation supported by foreign forces. The U.S. has expressed support for forming a transitional administration in Caracas and intends to engage American oil companies to restore Venezuela's oil industry. For many years, the country, which has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, has produced less than 1 million barrels per day due to sanctions, lack of investments, and destroyed infrastructure.
New political conditions open the possibility of gradually increasing Venezuelan oil production. Analysts estimate that under relative stability and with an influx of investments from the U.S. and other countries, production in Venezuela could rise by 200–300 thousand barrels per day in the next one to two years. JPMorgan's optimistic scenario suggests reaching a level of 1.3–1.4 million barrels per day in two years (up from ~1.1 million in 2025) and potentially up to 2.5 million barrels per day within a decade if significant modernization projects are implemented. Already in the days following the change in power, reports emerged of plans to audit the state of PDVSA's fields and infrastructure and engage international partners to restart idle wells.
However, experts warn that quick results should not be expected. The Venezuelan oil sector requires extensive refurbishment—from repairing oil refineries to investing in port facilities. Required investments are estimated to be in the tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. Additionally, questions remain about the legitimacy of the regime change and long-term political risks. Some countries—friends of the former authorities—have condemned the external interference; Russia, for instance, stated that control over Venezuelan oil should not shift to the U.S. This implies potential diplomatic friction surrounding the Venezuelan issue.
For the global market, an increase in exports from Venezuela in the coming months will be modest but symbolically significant. There is already a resumption of supplies of heavy Venezuelan oil to American refineries in the Gulf of Mexico under licenses granted by the new administration. In the medium-term perspective, additional Venezuelan volumes could strengthen competition in the heavy oil segment dominated by OPEC. Goldman Sachs estimates that if production in Venezuela eventually rises to 2 million barrels per day, it could lower the equilibrium price of Brent by $3–4 by 2030. While achieving such volumes is still far off, investors are factoring in the emergence of a "new-old" player in the market. Overall, the situation in Venezuela adds another factor to the global oversupply, reinforcing expectations that the period of relatively low oil prices may persist.
Energy Transition: Record Green Generation and the Role of Coal
The global energy sector continues to shift toward low-carbon sources, although fossil fuels maintain a significant share of the energy balance. The year 2025 was record-breaking for renewable sources: according to the International Energy Agency, around 580 GW of new renewable capacity was added worldwide. More than 90% of all new power plants commissioned last year operated on solar, wind, or hydro energy. Consequently, the share of renewable generation in electricity production reached historical highs in several countries.
Europe and the U.S. In the European Union, the share of electricity generated from renewables exceeded 50% for the first time by the end of the year. Wind farms in the North Sea, solar farms in Southern Europe, and bioenergy accounted for the majority of the growth. This allowed the EU to reduce coal and gas combustion for generation by 5% and 3%, respectively, compared to the previous year. The share of coal in the EU's energy balance returned to a declining trajectory following a temporary spike in 2022–2023. In the U.S., the renewable energy sector also reached new peaks with the inception of large solar stations in Texas and California, as well as wind installations in the Midwest. As a result, nearly 25% of American electricity now comes from renewables—the highest level in history. Government initiatives and tax incentives (as part of the Federal Inflation Reduction Act) are driving further investments in clean energy.
Asia and Emerging Markets. China and India also experience rapid growth in renewable energy, although absolute consumption of fossil fuels continues to rise there. China set a record of installing 130 GW of solar panels and 50 GW of wind power in a year, bringing total renewable capacity to 1.2 TW. However, the rapidly growing economy demands more electricity: to avoid shortages, Beijing is simultaneously increasing coal production and constructing coal-fired power plants. Consequently, China still generates around 60–65% of its electricity from coal. A similar situation exists in India: the country is increasing solar and wind capacities (over 20 GW added in 2025), but over 70% of Indian electricity is still produced at coal-fired stations. To meet the growing demand, New Delhi has approved the construction of new high-efficiency coal units, despite climate goals. Many other developing economies in Asia and Africa (Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, etc.) are also balancing between developing renewables and the need to expand traditional generation to provide base-load power.
Challenges for Energy Systems. The rapid growth of the share of solar and wind power poses new challenges for energy providers. Periodic fluctuations in renewable generation require the development of energy storage systems and reserve capacities. Already in Europe and the U.S., during peak load hours or adverse weather conditions, grid operators must resort to gas and even coal plants to balance the system. In 2025, several countries experienced moments when, due to calm weather and nighttime conditions, the share of renewables dropped, and traditional power plants temporarily carried the main load. To enhance system flexibility, energy storage projects are being scaled up—from industrial batteries to the production of "green" hydrogen for seasonal storage. Nevertheless, fossil fuel reserves remain critically important for stable energy supply. Global demand for coal is projected to remain near record levels in 2026 (around 8.8 billion tons per year) and will only begin to noticeably decline by the end of the decade, as clean technologies are more rapidly adopted and countries meet their climate commitments.
Fuel Products Market and Refining: Oversupply Lowers Fuel Prices
The global fuel products market at the beginning of 2026 is in a favorable state for consumers. Prices for major fuel types—gasoline and diesel—are maintained at levels significantly below last year's, largely due to lower oil prices and increased refining capacity from oil refineries. Throughout 2025, new refining capacities came online, intensifying competition among fuel product producers and increasing the volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel available on the international market.
Capacity Growth in Asia and the Middle East. Major investment projects in refining that have launched in recent years are starting to yield results. In China, several modern refineries have come online, bringing the country's total refining capacity to approximately 20 million barrels per day—this is the largest figure in the world. Beijing had intended to cap national capacity at 1 billion tons per year (around 20 million barrels per day), and this threshold is now nearly reached. The excess refining capacity within the country is already leading to some smaller, older plants in China operating at reduced load or potentially being closed in the coming years. In the Middle East, the massive Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait has been fully commissioned, and expansion projects in Saudi Arabia have started, including new complexes involving foreign partners. These new plants are aimed not only at domestic demand but also at fuel exports—primarily to Asian countries and Africa, where demand for petroleum products is still rising.
Stabilization of the Diesel Market in Europe. The European Union, which faced tightness in the diesel market in 2022–2023 due to the embargo on Russian supplies, managed to reorient logistics and avoid shortages in 2025. Diesel and aviation kerosene imports into Europe from the Middle East, India, China, and the U.S. increased, compensating for the loss of Russian exports. The role of India is particularly evident: its refineries, receiving discounted Russian oil, produce excess diesel, a significant portion of which is then directed to Europe and African countries. This "redistribution" has kept European diesel prices stable even during peak summer demand. Within the EU, refiners have also increased production output: refineries in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe operated at high capacity, partially compensating for the closure of some outdated plants in Western Europe. Consequently, wholesale prices for diesel fuel in Europe decreased by approximately 15% by the end of 2025 compared to the beginning of the year, which helped ease inflationary pressure.
Refining Margins and Prospects. For the refiners themselves, the situation is dual: on one hand, cheaper oil reduces the raw material component; on the other hand, the oversupply of fuel and competition lowers margins. After record-high margins were observed in 2022, refiners faced tightening conditions in 2025. Average global refining margins decreased, especially for diesel and fuel oil production. In Asia, due to an oversupply of gasoline, some plants reduced output and shifted to the production of petrochemical products with higher added value. In Europe, biodiesel content requirements and environmental regulations also raise costs for refineries, pushing the sector toward consolidation and modernization. It is expected that in 2026, global refining capacities will continue to grow—with new projects approaching completion in East Africa and expansions in the U.S. This indicates that competition in the fuel products market will remain high and prices for gasoline and diesel are likely to stay relatively low unless there is a dramatic spike in oil prices.
Outlook and Expected Events
As the beginning of 2026 approaches, investors and participants in the energy sector are carefully assessing how key factors influencing prices and the supply-demand balance will unfold. In the coming months, the dynamics of global fuel and energy markets will be influenced by the following aspects:
- Decisions on sanctions and the conflict's progress: Whether the U.S. will approve and implement a new sanctions bill against buyers of Russian oil. Its implications for the global market (potential supply reductions, rerouting of flows, and China's/India's political reactions) will be one of the main uncertainty factors. Simultaneously, markets are monitoring any signals of progress or failure in the peace negotiations concerning Ukraine—this directly affects sanctions policy and investor sentiment.
- OPEC+ Strategy: Attention will be focused on the oil alliance's policy. If oil prices continue to decline, there may be an unscheduled meeting or review of quotas. The regular OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for spring, and markets are awaiting whether measures will be taken to cut production to support prices or whether the cartel will continue to allow prices to remain at relatively low levels to maintain market share.
- Economic Dynamics and Demand: The state of the global economy, especially in China, the U.S., and the EU, will be decisive for energy demand. If GDP growth sharpens in the second half of 2026 or, for example, industrial production in China rebounds after stimulus measures, this could elevate oil and LNG consumption, slightly reducing oversupply. Conversely, recession or financial tremors may weaken fuel demand. Additionally, seasonal recoveries in air travel (aviation fuel) and vehicle traffic in spring and summer will also affect the fuel products market.
- Winter's conclusion and preparation for the next season: The outcomes of the current winter for the gas market will dictate the strategy for 2026. If Europe avoids energy deficits and significant gas reserves remain in storage, this will ease the challenge of filling storage facilities for next winter and may keep prices low. An important event will be the summer 2026 injection season: under expected increased global LNG supply (new project launches in the U.S. and Qatar), Europe plans to again achieve 90% storage capacity by autumn. The market will evaluate whether this can be accomplished without price spikes or intense competition with Asian importers.
- Energy Transition and Corporate Investments: Attention will continue to be given to how energy companies are reallocating capital between fossil and renewable sectors. A decline in investments in oil production is projected for 2026 amid low prices—especially among independent firms in North America and international majors focusing on financial discipline. Concurrently, growth in investments in LNG projects (increased exports from North America and Africa) and "green" energy is anticipated. Any new government initiatives for decarbonization (such as tightening climate targets at upcoming climate summits) or, conversely, steps to support fossil fuel production will directly influence long-term expectations for demand and prices.
Overall, for 2026, industry experts provide a cautiously optimistic forecast for consumers: high market availability of oil and gas should prevent sharp price hikes. However, for producers, this signifies the need to adapt to a new reality—a period of lower margins and heightened focus on efficiency. Geopolitical factors remain a “wild card”: unexpected events—whether breakthroughs in peace negotiations, significant force majeure at production sites, or new trade wars—can instantly alter the balance. The energy market participants approach the year's beginning with caution, crafting strategies capable of withstanding various scenarios of unfolding events.
