Global Oil, Gas, and Energy News as of December 5, 2025: Price Dynamics of Oil and Gas, OPEC+ Policy, Sanctions, Energy Market in Europe and Asia, Russian Fuel and Energy Sector (TES), Renewable Energy Sources (RES), and Coal. Analysis for Investors and Industry Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 5, 2025, reflect a mixed dynamic in global markets against the backdrop of cautious hopes for a peaceful settlement and persistent risks of oversupply. Global oil prices remain near several-month lows: Brent crude is trading at around $62–63 per barrel, while the U.S. WTI is around $59. This is significantly lower than mid-year levels and reflects a combination of factors, from expectations of progress in peace talks to signs of oversupply. In contrast, the European gas market is entering winter with relative confidence: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in EU countries are over 85% full, providing a substantial buffer, while wholesale prices (TTF index) remain below €30 per MWh, which is significantly lower than the peaks of previous years.
However, geopolitical tensions around energy continue unabated. The West is intensifying sanctions on the Russian energy sector - the European Union recently legally approved a phased rejection of importing Russian gas by 2027 and an accelerated reduction of remaining oil supplies from Russia. Diplomatic attempts to resolve the conflict have thus far not yielded tangible results, and therefore restrictions and supply risks persist. Within Russia, authorities are extending emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market after the autumn shortages of gasoline and diesel, strictly limiting the export of petroleum products. Simultaneously, global energy is accelerating its "green" transition: investments in renewable sources are hitting records, and new incentives are being implemented, while traditional resources - oil, gas, and coal - continue to play a key role in the energy balance of most countries. Full analytics of the situation are available for investors and industry participants.
Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and Oversupply Pressure Prices
As of early December, oil prices are under pressure and demonstrating volatility near local lows. The North Sea Brent blend has dipped to around $62 per barrel after relative stability in the autumn, while WTI futures have dropped to $59. Current quotes are roughly 15% lower than levels a year ago. The market is pricing in a probable easing of restrictions on Russian oil in the event of successful peace negotiations between Moscow and Washington, reducing the geopolitical premium in prices. At the same time, concerns over oversupply are growing: industry data indicates an increase in crude oil and fuel inventories, and the seasonal decline in demand at the year's end, combined with slowing economic growth in China, is limiting consumption. The OPEC+ oil alliance confirmed at the November 30 meeting to maintain current production quotas through the end of 2026, signaling its reluctance to increase supply and risk a price collapse. As a result, the cumulative influence of these factors has shifted market balance towards oversupply. Prices remain low while market participants assess the prospects of a peace agreement and further steps by OPEC+ in response to the changing market conditions.
Gas Market: Winter Begins with Comfortable Supplies and Moderate Prices
The European natural gas market is entering the peak heating season without significant upheaval. Thanks to timely fuel injections and a mild start to winter, EU countries are meeting December with significantly filled gas storage and relatively low prices. This reduces the threat of a repeat of the crisis that occurred in 2022. Key factors influencing the current situation in the European gas market include:
- High Filling of UGS: According to industry monitoring, the average filling level of gas storage in the EU exceeds 85%, which is considerably above the norm for the start of winter. The accumulated reserves create a reliable "safety cushion" in case of prolonged cold spells and supply disruptions.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers continue to actively purchase liquefied natural gas on the global market. Weakening demand for LNG in Asia has freed up additional volumes for Europe, partially compensating for the loss of pipeline supplies from Russia. As a result, LNG inflows remain high, helping to keep prices at moderate levels.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Milder weather at the start of winter and energy conservation measures are curbing gas consumption growth. Meanwhile, the EU is diversifying its sources: gas imports from Norway, North Africa, and other regions have increased, strengthening energy security and reducing dependence on Russian supplies.
- Price Stabilization: Wholesale gas prices are currently nearly three times lower than the extreme peaks of last year. The Dutch TTF index is maintaining around €28–30 per MWh. The loading of storage and market balancing have allowed for avoidance of new price spikes even amidst reductions in gas imports from Russia.
Thus, Europe is entering winter with a substantial safety buffer in the gas market. Even in the event of colder weather, accumulated supplies and flexible LNG supply chains can help mitigate potential shocks. However, in the long term, the situation will depend on weather conditions and global demand, especially if Asia's energy needs begin to rise again.
Russian Market: Fuel Shortages and Export Restrictions Extended
In autumn 2025, Russia experienced a deepening issue of motor fuel (gasoline and diesel) shortages in the domestic market due to several overlapping factors. The increase in seasonal demand (harvest campaigns raised fuel consumption) coincided with reduced supply from refineries (refinery outages due to unscheduled repairs and drone attacks on infrastructure). In several regions, gasoline supply disruptions emerged, forcing the government to intervene swiftly to stabilize the situation. Authorities implemented emergency measures that remain in effect:
- Ban on Gasoline Exports: The Russian government enacted a temporary complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline by all producers and traders (except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements) at the end of August. Initially scheduled to last until October, the ban has now been extended at least until December 31, 2025, due to ongoing tensions in the domestic fuel market.
- Restriction on Diesel Exports: Simultaneously, exports of diesel fuel for independent traders have been banned until the end of the year. Oil companies with their own refineries are allowed to perform limited diesel fuel exports to avoid halting refining. This partial ban aims to ensure adequate supplies of petroleum products within the country and prevent a repeat of shortages.
According to statements from relevant officials, the fuel crisis that emerged in the autumn is considered localized and temporary. Reserve stocks have been mobilized, and refining is gradually recovering after unscheduled downtimes. By early winter, the situation had somewhat stabilized: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel retreated from September's peaks, although they remain above last year’s levels. The government's priority is to fully ensure the domestic market and prevent a new spike in prices; therefore, if necessary, strict export restrictions may be extended into 2026.
Sanctions and Policy: Intensifying Western Pressure and Seeking Compromises
The collective West continues to tighten its stance on the Russian FEC, showing no signs of easing sanctions. On December 4, EU leaders finalized a plan for a complete and indefinite rejection of importing Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2026 (with the cessation of LNG purchases by 2027) as part of a new sanctions package. This move aims to deprive Moscow of a significant portion of its export revenues in the medium term. Traditional opposers of this initiative, Hungary and Slovakia, dependent on Russian resources, were unable to block the overall EU decision.
Simultaneously, the United States is increasing its own pressure. The Trump administration is taking a hard line against countries cooperating with Russia in the energy sector. Specifically, Washington imposed increased tariffs on a range of Indian goods in part in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil and signaled consideration of revising concessions for Venezuela. These steps create uncertainty around future supplies of Venezuelan oil in the global market. Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington about ceasing the conflict have shown no significant progress – recent consultations in Moscow involving American emissaries ended without breakthroughs. Hostilities in Ukraine continue, and all previously imposed restrictions on Russian energy exports remain in place. Western companies continue to avoid new investments in Russia. Thus, the geopolitical standoff around energy persists, adding long-term risks and uncertainties to the market.
Asia: India and China Focus on Energy Security
The largest developing economies in Asia – India and China – continue to prioritize ensuring their energy security while balancing the benefits of cheap imports and external pressures. Asian countries are actively leveraging opportunities to procure energy resources on favorable terms while simultaneously developing domestic projects and cooperation. The current situation is as follows:
- India: Under pressure from the West, New Delhi temporarily reduced purchases of Russian oil in late autumn; however, India remains one of Moscow's key clients. Indian refineries continue to process available discounted Urals oil, meeting domestic fuel needs while directing excess petroleum products to exports. President Vladimir Putin visited India on December 4, underscoring the close ties between the countries. It is expected that on December 5, at a summit in New Delhi, the parties will discuss new agreements for long-term oil supplies and possible projects in the gas sector. Russia is also seeking to increase imports of Indian goods to balance trade, despite U.S. sanctions pressure (including high tariffs on Indian exports due to cooperation with Russia in the oil sector).
- China: Despite an economic slowdown, Beijing maintains a key role in the global energy market. Chinese companies are diversifying import channels: additional long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas purchases (including from Qatar and the U.S.) are being signed, pipeline gas supplies from Central Asia are expanding, and investments in overseas oil and gas production are increasing. Meanwhile, China is gradually increasing its own hydrocarbon production, although this is still insufficient to fully cover domestic demand. The country also continues to procure coal on a large scale, aiming to secure its energy system during the transition period. Both India and China are actively investing in the development of renewable energy, but in the coming years, they do not intend to renounce traditional sources – oil, gas, and coal, which still make up the backbone of their energy balance.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments Supported by Governments
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum, setting new records in investments and capacity additions. According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investments in renewable energy exceeded $2 trillion in 2025 – more than double the total investments in the oil and gas sector over the same period. The primary flow of capital is directed towards the construction of solar and wind power plants, as well as associated infrastructure – high-voltage networks and storage systems. At the COP30 climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to accelerating emissions reductions and significantly increasing RES capacities by 2030. To achieve these goals, a set of initiatives is proposed:
- Accelerating Approval Processes: Reduce the time for consideration and simplify the issuance of permits for the construction of renewable energy facilities, network upgrades, and the implementation of other low-carbon projects.
- Expanding State Support: Introduce additional incentives for "green" energy – special tariffs, tax breaks, subsidies, and government guarantees to attract more investments and reduce risks for businesses.
- Financing Transition in Developing Countries: Increase international financial assistance to emerging market economies for the accelerated deployment of RES where domestic resources are insufficient. Targeted funds are being established to lower the costs of "green" projects in the most vulnerable regions.
The rapid growth of renewable energy is already leading to changes in the global energy balance. According to analytical centers, non-carbon sources (RES along with nuclear generation) account for over 40% of electricity generation worldwide, and this share is steadily increasing. Experts note that while short-term fluctuations are possible due to weather conditions or spikes in consumption, the long-term trend is clear: clean energy is gradually displacing fossil fuels, pushing us closer to a new low-carbon era.
Coal: High Demand Supports the Market, but the Peak is Near
Despite global efforts to decarbonize, the global coal market in 2025 remains one of the largest in history. Global coal consumption is being held at record levels – around 8.8–8.9 billion tons per year, only slightly exceeding the previous year's figures. Demand continues to rise in the developing economies of Asia (primarily in India and Southeast Asian countries), offsetting the decline in coal use in Europe and North America. According to the IEA, in the first half of 2025, global coal consumption even slightly decreased due to increased output from RES and mild weather, but by the end of the year, a slight increase is expected (~1%). Thus, 2025 will be the third consecutive year with near-record levels of coal combustion.
Coal production is also increasing – especially in China and India, which are ramping up domestic output to reduce import dependence. Prices for thermal coal are generally stable as high Asian demand keeps the market balanced. However, analysts believe that global coal demand has reached a plateau and will gradually decline in the coming years as the development of renewable energy accelerates and climate policies tighten.
