Current News from the Energy Sector as of December 4, 2025: Decline in Brent Oil, Stability in the European Gas Market, EU Sanctions, Fuel Export Restrictions in Russia, Development of Renewable Energy Sources, and the Situation in Asia. Comprehensive Analysis for Investors and Industry Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy sector (FES) as of December 4, 2025, present a mixed picture on global markets amid efforts for geopolitical de-escalation. World oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in recent months: Brent crude has dropped to $62 per barrel, while American WTI is around $59. These figures are significantly below the mid-year levels and reflect a combination of factors – from cautious hopes for progress in peace negotiations to signs of oversupply. In contrast, the European gas market enters the winter season relatively calmly: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in EU countries are filled to over 85%, providing a solid buffer, and wholesale prices (TTF index) are maintained below €30 per MWh, which is substantially lower than peak values from previous years.
However, geopolitical tensions persist: the West is intensifying its sanctions pressure on the Russian energy sector – the European Union recently agreed on legislation to phase out imports of Russian gas by 2027, while also promoting a course to reduce the use of oil from Russia. Efforts for diplomatic resolution of the conflict have not yet yielded tangible results, thus the restrictions and risks to supply remain. In Russia, authorities are extending emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market after a fall gasoline and diesel shortage, sharply limiting fuel exports. Simultaneously, global energy is accelerating its "green" transition: investments in renewable sources are hitting record highs, and new incentive measures are being introduced, although traditional resources – oil, gas, and coal – remain a key part of the energy balance for many countries.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Hopes for Peace Weigh on Prices
By early December, global oil prices had decreased to multi-month lows under the influence of several factors. The North Sea Brent blend, after relative stability in the autumn, has slipped to around $62 per barrel, while American WTI has fallen to about $59. Current prices are significantly below mid-year levels and approximately 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a weakening market environment. Price dynamics have been influenced by a combination of factors:
- Hopes for Conflict Resolution: The market is factoring in the possibility of easing restrictions on Russian oil should peace negotiations between Moscow and Washington succeed. A recent meeting of U.S. representatives (special envoy Steven Vitkoff and adviser Jared Kushner) with the Russian President has instilled cautious optimism among investors regarding a potential de-escalation, which temporarily reduced the geopolitical "premium" in prices.
- Fears of Oversupply: Concerns about overproduction are intensifying amid signals of rising inventories. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), commercial oil inventories in the U.S. increased by 2.5 million barrels in the last week of November, with gasoline and distillate stocks up by 3.1 million and 2.9 million barrels, respectively. Additionally, seasonal demand slackening at the year's end and economic slowdown in China are limiting oil consumption growth.
- OPEC+ Decisions: The oil alliance at its meeting on November 30 chose not to alter production quotas for the first quarter of 2026, signaling an unwillingness to regain lost market shares out of fear of oil surplus formation. Maintaining existing production restrictions helps to support a fragile balance and prevents a steeper price downturn.
- Military Risks and Incidents: Ongoing drone attacks in the Black Sea and on Russian pipeline infrastructure have periodically reminded the market of supply disruption risks. At the end of November, Ukrainian strikes disabled one of the offshore terminals of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in the Black Sea (Kazakhstan's oil export has been partially restored), while a Russian tanker was attacked in the Bosporus Strait. However, overall, these incidents have only temporarily supported prices, not affecting the general downward trend.
Consequently, the combined impact of these factors has shifted market balance toward oversupply. Oil prices remain under pressure, fluctuating near local lows, as market participants evaluate the likelihood of a forthcoming peace agreement and further steps by OPEC+ in response to changing conditions.
Gas Market: Winter Begins with Comfortable Supplies and Moderate Prices
The natural gas market in Europe remains relatively favorable ahead of peak winter consumption. Thanks to timely storage and a mild start to the season, EU countries enter December with filled storage facilities and subdued prices, reducing the threat of a repeat of the 2022 crisis. Key factors determining the current dynamics of the European gas market include:
- High UGS Fill Levels: According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the average filling level of gas storage in the EU exceeds 85%, significantly higher than the average for the beginning of winter. The accumulated reserves create a "safety cushion" in case of severe weather and allow for compensating reductions in gas supplies from traditional sources.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers have continued to aggressively increase purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Weakened LNG demand in Asia has freed up additional volumes for Europe. As a result, LNG supplies remain high, partially offsetting the drop in pipeline gas from Russia and helping to keep prices relatively low.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Relatively mild weather at the start of winter and energy-saving measures have restrained gas consumption growth. At the same time, the EU is diversifying supply sources: imports of gas from Norway, North Africa, and through other routes have increased, reducing dependence on a single supplier and enhancing regional energy security.
- Price Stabilization: Wholesale gas prices in Europe have stabilized significantly below peak levels from last year. The Dutch TTF index hovers around €28 per MWh, which is nearly three times less than the extreme values of autumn 2022. Filled storage facilities and a balanced market have allowed the avoidance of sharp price surges even amidst reduced Russian imports.
Thus, the European gas market enters winter with a buffer. Even in the case of colder weather, the accumulated reserves and flexibility of LNG supplies should mitigate potential shocks. However, in the long term, the situation will depend on weather conditions and global competition for gas, especially if demand in Asia recovers.
Russian Market: Fuel Shortages and Extension of Export Restrictions
In autumn 2025, Russia faced an exacerbation of automotive fuel shortages (gasoline and diesel) amid a combination of domestic and external factors. Increased seasonal demand (the harvesting campaign required more fuel) coincided with a supply reduction from refineries, some of which decreased output due to emergency shutdowns and drone attacks. Fuel supply interruptions were reported in several regions, prompting authorities to urgently intervene in the market.
- Ban on Gasoline Exports: The Russian government implemented a temporary total ban on the export of automotive gasoline by all producers and traders (except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements) back in late August. Initially planned to last until October, this measure has been extended at least until December 31, 2025, due to ongoing tensions in the domestic market.
- Diesel Export Restrictions: At the same time, the export of diesel fuel has been banned for independent traders until the end of the year. Oil companies with their own refineries retain limited export opportunities for diesel to avoid halting processing. This partial ban aims to maintain sufficient diesel supply within the country, preventing shortages.
According to statements from Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the emerging deficit is of a local and temporary nature: reserve stocks are being utilized, and oil refining is gradually recovering after unplanned downtimes. By the beginning of winter, the situation has somewhat stabilized – wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have retreated from September's peak values, although they remain higher than last year's levels. Authorities emphasize that the priority is to saturate the domestic market and prevent a fuel crisis, so strict export restrictions may be extended into 2026 if necessary.
Sanctions and Policies: Western Pressure Intensifies, Ceasefire Delayed
The collective West continues to tighten its approach to the Russian fuel and energy sector, showing no signs of easing sanctions. On December 3, EU leaders finalized a plan for complete and permanent cessation of Russian gas imports by 2027, as well as an accelerated winding down of remaining oil supplies from Russia. This step has been legally ratified and aims to deprive Moscow of a significant portion of export revenues in the medium term. Hungary and Slovakia, which are heavily dependent on Russian raw materials, opposed the initiative; however, their objections did not prevent the decision from being adopted at the EU level.
Concurrently, the U.S. is intensifying its own pressure: the new administration has taken a tough stance against states interacting with Russia in the energy sector. Specifically, Washington has signaled the possibility of tightening sanctions against Venezuela, leading to uncertainty regarding future Venezuelan oil supplies. The Russian-American negotiations to end the conflict have so far stalled – recent consultations in Moscow with the participation of American emissaries have not produced a breakthrough. Hostilities in Ukraine continue, and all previously imposed restrictions on Russian energy exports remain in effect. Western companies still avoid new projects and investments in Russia. Therefore, the geopolitical confrontation surrounding energy continues, adding long-term risks and uncertainty to the market.
Asia: India and China Bet on Energy Security
The largest developing economies in Asia – India and China – continue to focus primarily on ensuring their own energy security, balancing between benefits from cheap imports and external pressure.
- India: Under Western pressure, New Delhi temporarily reduced purchases of Russian oil in late autumn, but overall, India remains one of Moscow's key clients. Indian refineries actively utilize discounted Urals oil, fully meeting domestic fuel needs and exporting surplus petroleum products. President Putin's visit to New Delhi, starting today, aims to strengthen energy cooperation – new agreements on oil supplies are expected, as well as discussions on gas sector projects and other industries.
- China: Despite economic slowdown, China maintains a key role in the global energy market. Beijing is diversifying import channels: additional long-term contracts for LNG purchases (including from Qatar and the U.S.) are being signed, pipeline gas imports from Central Asia are expanding, and investments in overseas oil and gas extraction are increasing. Simultaneously, the country is gradually increasing its own hydrocarbon production, although this is not yet sufficient to fully cover domestic demand. China is also continuing coal purchases, aiming to secure the energy system during the transition period.
Both India and China are concurrently investing heavily in the development of renewable energy, but in the coming years, they do not intend to renounce traditional hydrocarbons. Oil, gas, and coal still form the core of their energy balance, and ensuring stable supplies of these resources remains a strategic priority for the Asian powers.
Renewable Energy: Record Investment and Ambitious Goals
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum, setting new records for investments and deployed capacities. In 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), total global investments in "green" energy exceeded $2 trillion – more than double the combined investments in the oil and gas sector over the same period. The primary flow of capital is directed towards the development of solar and wind generation, as well as related infrastructure – high-voltage power grids and energy storage systems.
At the COP30 climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to accelerate emissions reductions and expand renewable energy capacity by 2030. To achieve these goals, a range of initiatives is proposed:
- Streamlining Permitting Processes: Reducing the time frames for reviewing and simplifying the issuance of permits for building solar and wind power plants, modernizing grids, and other low-carbon projects.
- Expanding Government Support: Introducing additional incentives for "green" energy – special "green" tariffs, tax breaks, subsidies, and government guarantees aimed at attracting investment and reducing risks for businesses.
- Financing the Transition in Developing Countries: Increasing international financial assistance to emerging market countries to accelerate renewable energy adoption where local resources are insufficient. Targeted funds are being established to lower costs for "green" projects in economically vulnerable regions.
The rapid growth of renewable energy is already significantly changing the structure of global energy consumption. According to analytical centers, non-carbon sources (renewables and nuclear) account for over 40% of electricity generation worldwide, and this figure is continuously increasing. Experts note that while short-term fluctuations are possible due to weather factors or demand surges, the long-term trend is clear: clean energy is confidently displacing fossil fuels, bringing the global economy closer to a new low-carbon era.
Coal: Strong Demand Keeps the Market Afloat
Despite efforts to decarbonize, the global coal market in 2025 remains historically large. Global coal consumption holds steady at record levels – around 8.8–8.9 billion tons per year, only slightly exceeding last year's level. Demand for coal products continues to grow in the developing economies of Asia, especially in India and Southeast Asia, offsetting reductions in coal usage in Europe and North America.
According to the IEA, global coal demand even slightly decreased in the first half of 2025 due to increased generation from renewables and mild weather; however, a slight increase (~1%) is expected by the end of the year. With current trends, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year of near-record coal consumption. Production is also increasing – especially in China and India, which are ramping up domestic output to reduce import dependency.
Prices for thermal coal remain relatively stable, as high Asian demand supports market balance. However, analysts believe that global coal demand has reached a "plateau" and will gradually decline in the coming years as the development of renewable energy accelerates and climate policies tighten.
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