Latest Oil, Gas, and Energy News as of February 15, 2026: Dynamics of Brent and WTI, Gas and LNG Markets, Electricity and Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, and Refineries. A Global Overview for Investors and Participants in the Energy Sector.
The end of the week in commodity markets was characterized by a "tug-of-war" between geopolitical premiums and growing signals of oversupply. Oil remained close to $68 per barrel for Brent, but the focus has shifted to April: market participants are assessing the likelihood of a resumption of OPEC+ production growth and the impact of expanding operational capabilities in Venezuela for international players. In the gas market, Europe remains sensitive to weather and hydrological balances: a lack of snow cover in the Alpine region is increasing gas generation and supporting import demand.
- Oil: Brent and WTI ended the day with slight increases but recorded weekly losses; the key catalyst is expectations regarding OPEC+ and the intensifying supply narrative.
- Gas: the American Henry Hub stabilized around $3+ per MMBtu after extreme volatility in January; TTF in Europe has retreated, but energy balance risks remain.
- Oil Products: the European ICE gasoil showed a notable decline at the close; premiums and margins remain volatile amid refinery maintenance and seasonal demand adjustments.
- Coal and Electricity: ARA coal strengthened, while German baseload electricity futures declined at the end of the day.
Key Price Indicators
Below is a "showcase" for investors and participants in the energy sector: oil, gas hubs, oil products, coal, and electricity. All changes are calculated as the difference between the closing prices on February 13, 2026, and February 12, 2026, for the respective indicators (where available).
| Indicator | Region/Market | Unit | Closing (February 13, 2026) | Daily Change | Daily Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (front-month) | Global export benchmark | USD/barrel | 67.75 | +0.23 | +0.34% |
| WTI (front-month) | USA, NYMEX | USD/barrel | 62.89 | +0.05 | +0.08% |
| Henry Hub (NYMEX nat gas, front-month) | USA, key gas hub | USD/MMBtu | 3.243 | +0.026 | +0.81% |
| TTF (ICE Dutch TTF, front-month) | Europe, gas hub | EUR/MWh | 32.500 | -0.494 | -1.50% |
| ICE Gasoil (London Gas Oil) | Europe, diesel/gasoil | USD/ton | 672.50 | -25.75 | -3.69% |
| ARA Coal (Rotterdam Coal) | Europe, ARA (proxy for API2 logic) | USD/ton | 104.85 | +1.55 | +1.50% |
| German Electricity (Baseload month) | Europe, futures | EUR/MWh | 101.22 | -2.95 | -2.83% |
Oil: Supply and Demand Balance Back in Focus
For the oil market, the week served as a "mode switch": the geopolitical premium (primarily around the US-Iran situation) supported prices; however, the risk of oversupply began to dominate the news flow. Sources indicate a willingness among some OPEC+ participants to return to planned production increases starting in April—a decision being discussed in light of expectations for seasonal demand growth in spring and summer. For investors, this means a higher likelihood of a slight surplus in the second quarter and increased sensitivity of oil prices to inventory and export data.
Meanwhile, international forecasters are strengthening their bearish outlook: the IEA has lowered its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2026 and simultaneously identified a structural gap between expected supply and consumption. In this context, any additional flow—from OPEC+ or sanctioned countries—is perceived as a factor shifting the curve towards contango and pressuring spreads.
- Fundamentals: the market is digesting simultaneous signals of "less demand" and "more potential production."
- Supply Risks: discussions of OPEC+ returning to production increases and the potential increase in Venezuelan capabilities through changes in the licensing regime for international companies.
- Short-Term Horizon: statements from OPEC+ and the dynamics of US oil inventories/refining will be key next week.
Gas and LNG: Europe Remains Weather-Dependent, US Returns to More "Normal" Prices
The gas market shows regional divergence. In the US, Henry Hub is returning to levels closer to medium-term balance expectations—following a wave of cold in January when futures and spot prices exhibited extreme spikes. For fuel companies and gas consumers, this appears as a shift from a "force majeure" demand mode to one of calibration of inventories and production.
In Europe, TTF declined at the end of the day, but fundamental nervousness persists: the weather factor is influenced not only by temperature but also by hydrology. Low snow cover in parts of the Alpine region means weak hydro generation and greater gas extraction for electricity, directly impacting the filling and discharging rates of storage facilities and spot supply premiums. For the global LNG market, this connection increases the significance of short-term changes in flows and tankers' availability.
As of February 15, 2026: detailed data on European UGS loading and JKM/TTF spreads are not disclosed in this publication (there are no confirmed public numbers from available primary sources), therefore the assessment is given based on the overall trend of gas generation demand and hub volatility.
Oil Products and Refineries: Diesel Shelf Weakens, But Maintenance Supports Margins
On oil product markets, the week ended with a decline in European gasoil, indicating a rapid reassessment of expectations in the middle distillate segment. However, for refineries and fuel companies, a key parameter is not just the futures level but rather crack spreads, regional premiums, and raw material availability. Here, the picture is complicated by two opposing processes: seasonal refinery maintenance reduces the supply of oil products, while weakened demand outside the peak heating/transit window diminishes price support.
In the US, an important corporate signal was the focus on Venezuelan crude: easing licensing requirements increases the likelihood of rising imports of heavy grades to optimize the refining basket at American refineries. For arbitrages, this suggests a possible redistribution of flows: some barrels that previously went to other destinations may be redirected to the Atlantic, impacting freight and differentials.
- For Refineries: risk—"flat" prices for oil products amid expensive raw materials; support—competitors' maintenance and logistics constraints.
- For Trading: focus—diesel/gasoil, regional spreads, and shipping costs for product tankers.
- For Investors: the importance of guidance on margins and throughput from public refiners is increasing.
Sanctions and Geopolitics: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela Shape the "Political Premium" in Energy
Geopolitics is once again part of pricing: tensions in the Middle East surrounding the US-Iran situation support a risk premium for oil and increase the "price" of potential disruptions. Simultaneously, the sanctions agenda in Europe is shifting from price constraints to logistics—there is a discussion on tightening maritime service restrictions for Russian oil and expanding the sanctions scope to infrastructure and ports of third countries. This directly affects transportation and insurance costs, and increases the role of "gray" supply chains.
At the opposite end of the spectrum—Venezuela: expanding the licensing regime for international players opens opportunities for accelerating production and investments, but operational details (licenses, payment mechanisms, banking compliance) will determine the speed of actual gains. This is why the oil market will trade in the coming weeks not only on current inventories but also on the quality of political signals.
Energy and Renewables: Policy Alters Curves, Electricity Reflects Balance Nervousness
The renewables sector continues to expand its investment base, but policy is becoming more differentiated. The UK registered a record volume of support for solar projects in another auction, highlighting a commitment to scalable low-carbon technologies. In contrast, France has adjusted its energy strategy parameters, lowering targets for wind and solar while increasing the role of nuclear generation; for European energy, this implies a more complex trajectory for grid development, storage, and balancing capacity.
On a price level, German electricity (futures) declined at the end of the day, appearing as a reaction to short-term normalization expectations regarding the balance; however, fundamentally, European energy remains sensitive to gas, weather, and the availability of low-carbon generation.
Brief Forecast for Upcoming Days (February 15–20, 2026): the baseline scenario suggests oil trading in a corridor where the upper limit is constrained by supply growth expectations, and the lower limit is protected by geopolitical premiums. Gas in Europe will remain a "weather deal," while for oil products, the key intrigue will be the resilience of diesel spreads amid refinery maintenance.
- What to Watch for Investors: signals from OPEC+ (ahead of the meeting on March 1, 2026), practical details regarding Venezuela (licenses and export flows), dynamics of the EU/G7 sanctions agenda, and US-Iran risks.
- What to Watch for Market Participants: arbitrages for crude and oil products, logistics of supplies, premiums for gas hubs, and loading on gas generation in Europe.
This article is prepared in exposition form for the audience of investors and market participants: oil, gas, energy, renewables, coal, oil products, refineries, and fuel companies. If certain figures or corporate details are absent from public primary sources, they are marked as unavailable as of February 15, 2026.
