Current News in the Oil and Gas and Energy Sector as of November 23, 2025: Oil and Gas Market Dynamics, Situation in the Fuel and Energy Complex, Renewable Energy, Coal, Geopolitics, Supply and Demand, Domestic Fuel Market.
The current events in the oil and gas and energy sector as of November 23, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictory nature. Unexpected diplomatic initiatives instill cautious optimism regarding the easing of geopolitical tension, reflected in a reduction of the 'risk premium' in the oil market.
Global oil prices continue to be pressured by oversupply and weakened demand – Brent quotes have dropped to around $62 per barrel (WTI – about $58), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. The European gas market appears relatively balanced: gas reserves in underground storage facilities of EU countries remain high (over 80% of capacity), providing a buffer before the winter season and keeping prices at relatively low levels.
Simultaneously, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – many countries are recording new records in electricity generation from renewable sources, although traditional resources are still required for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, following a recent sharp rise in fuel prices, measures taken by the authorities are beginning to yield results, and the situation in the domestic market is stabilizing. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Easing and Oversupply Drive Prices Down
Global oil quotes remain at a relatively low level, influenced by fundamental factors. Brent is trading around $62-63 per barrel, WTI at about $58, which is approximately 15% lower than a year ago. The dynamics of prices are affected by several key factors:
- Increase in OPEC+ production: The oil alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for participants in the deal is set to increase by an additional approximately 137,000 barrels/day. Earlier, since summer, monthly additions amounted to 0.5-0.6 million barrels/day, leading to a return of global oil and petroleum product reserves to levels close to pre-pandemic levels. While further increases in quotas for 2026 are on pause due to concerns about oversupply, the current increase in supply is already putting pressure on prices.
- Decrease in demand: The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly slowed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates the demand growth in 2025 to be less than 0.8 million barrels/day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecast has become more restrained, around +1.2-1.3 million barrels/day. A weakening global economy and the effects of high prices in previous years are limiting consumption; an additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China, which curbs the appetite of the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical signals: Reports of a possible peace plan for Ukraine from the USA have reduced some geopolitical uncertainty, removing the risk premium in prices. However, the absence of real agreements and ongoing sanctions pressure keeps the market from fully calming down. Traders respond to news reactively: as long as the peace initiatives are not realized, the impact is of a short-term nature.
- Shale production constraints: In the USA, low prices have begun to limit the activity of shale producers. The number of drilling rigs in American oil basins is decreasing as quotes have dropped to ~$60. This signals greater caution from companies and threatens to slow the growth of supply from the USA if such prices persist.
The combined influence of these factors creates a situation close to surplus: global supply is currently slightly exceeding demand. Oil prices are firmly held below last year's levels. A number of analysts believe that if current trends persist, in 2026 the average price for Brent could drop to around $50 per barrel. For now, however, the market remains within a relatively narrow range, lacking momentum for either a sharp rise or a collapse.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Reserves, Prices Remain Moderate
In the gas market, the focus is on Europe’s preparation for the heating season. EU countries have actively injected gas into their underground storage facilities (UGS) throughout the summer and autumn. By mid-November, European storage was filled to about 82% of total capacity – slightly below the target benchmark (90% by November 1), but still at a very comfortable level. This ensures a substantial reserve of gas in case of a cold winter. Exchange prices for gas remain at low levels: December futures at the TTF hub are trading at around 25-28 €/MWh (approximately $320-360 per thousand cubic meters), marking a minimum in over a year. Such moderate prices reflect a balance of demand and supply in the European market.
A significant role is played by high liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Thanks to active LNG deliveries (including from the USA and Qatar), Europeans have managed to compensate for reduced pipeline supplies from Russia and pre-fill UGS. In the autumn months, monthly LNG imports into the EU consistently exceeded 10 billion cubic meters. An additional factor is the relatively mild weather at the beginning of winter, curbing consumption and allowing for slower withdrawals from storage than usual. A potential risk ahead is increased competition for LNG from Asia if severe frosts hit the region and demand for gas increases. Nevertheless, currently, the balance in the European gas market appears stable, and prices are relatively low. This situation is favorable for Europe's industry and energy sector at the beginning of the winter season.
International Politics: Peace Initiatives for Ukraine and New US Sanctions
In the second half of November, encouraging signals have emerged in the geopolitical arena. Reports indicate that the American side has prepared a plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, which, among other things, includes the lifting of some sanctions imposed against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly received strong signals from Washington to accept the proposed agreement developed in conjunction with Moscow urgently. The prospect of peace agreements instills cautious optimism in the markets: de-escalation of the conflict could lift restrictions on Russian energy exports over time and improve the business climate.
At the same time, no real changes in the sanction regime have yet occurred – moreover, the West is increasing pressure. On November 21, new US sanctions came into effect, directly targeting the Russian oil and gas sector. Major companies "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" are subject to restrictions: global counterparties are obliged to completely cease cooperation with them by this date. Earlier, the US administration indicated its readiness to introduce further measures if no progress is seen on the political track – up to the introduction of strict tariffs on countries continuing to actively purchase Russian oil.
Thus, the absence of a concrete breakthrough on the diplomatic front means the continuation of sanctions pressure in full measure. Nevertheless, the mere fact of ongoing dialogue gives hope that the most severe measures from the West have been postponed for now. In the coming weeks, market attention will be focused on the development of contacts between world leaders: positive shifts may improve investor sentiment and soften sanction rhetoric, while the failure of negotiations threatens a new escalation of restrictions. The outcomes of the current peace initiatives will have a long-term impact on energy cooperation and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India Reduces Imports of Russian Oil, China Increases Purchases
- India: Faced with the pressure of Western sanctions policy, New Delhi is forced to adjust its energy strategy. Prior to this, Indian authorities had clearly indicated that a sharp reduction in imports of Russian oil and gas was unacceptable due to the key role these supplies play in ensuring energy security. However, under intensified US pressure, Indian refiners have begun to reduce purchases. The largest private oil company, Reliance Industries, completely halted the import of Russian oil to its Jamnagar complex as of November 20. To maintain the Indian market, Russian suppliers have had to offer additional discounts: December shipments of Urals oil are selling for about $5-6 below Brent prices (whereas in summer the discount was about $2). As a result, India continues to procure significant volumes of Russian oil on favorable terms, although overall imports are expected to decline in the coming months. Simultaneously, the country's leadership is taking steps to reduce dependence on imports in the long term. As early as August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national program for the exploration of deepwater oil and gas fields. Under this initiative, the state-owned company ONGC has started drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea; initial results are being deemed encouraging. This "deepwater mission" aims to open new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to its goal of gradually achieving energy independence.
- China: The largest Asian economy is also forced to adapt its energy import structure while simultaneously increasing domestic production. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian oil and gas – Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and has seized the opportunity to import raw materials at favorable prices. However, the latest US and EU sanctions measures have led to adjustments: Chinese state traders temporarily halted new purchases of Russian oil, fearing secondary sanctions. This gap has been partially filled by independent processors. The latest Yulong refinery in Shandong province significantly increased its purchases and in November 2025 reached a record import volume – about 15 large tanker lots (up to 400,000 barrels per day), mainly of Russian oil (ESPO, Urals, Sokol). Yulong capitalized on the fact that some suppliers canceled deliveries of Middle Eastern raw materials after the sanctions and repurchased the released volumes. Concurrently, China is increasing its own oil and gas production: from January to July 2025, national companies extracted 126.6 million tons of oil (+1.3% compared to last year) and 152.5 billion cubic meters of gas (+6%). The increase in domestic production helps partially meet rising demand but does not eliminate the need for imports. Analysts estimate that in the coming years, China will still depend on external oil supplies by at least 70% and gas by about 40%. Thus, India and China – the two largest Asian consumers – continue to play a key role in global raw material markets, combining strategies for ensuring imports with the development of their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records Amid Continued Role of Traditional Energy
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly gaining momentum. Many countries are recording new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). By the end of 2024, the total generation from solar and wind power in the European Union surpassed production from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time. This trend continued into 2025: the commissioning of new capacities has allowed for further growth in the share of "green" electricity in the EU, while the share of coal in the energy balance began to decline after a temporary rise during the energy crisis of 2022-2023. In the USA, renewable energy has also reached historic levels – at the beginning of 2025, over 30% of total generation came from RES, and the combined output of wind and solar energy surpassed generation from coal plants. China, the world leader in installed RES capacity, is commissioning tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind generators each year, consistently breaking its own generation records.
Overall, companies and investors worldwide are directing enormous funds into clean energy development. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 are expected to exceed $3 trillion, with over half of these funds being invested in RES projects, modernization of electrical grids, and energy storage systems. Simultaneously, energy systems still rely on traditional generation to ensure stable energy supply. The growth in the share of solar and wind creates new challenges for balancing the grid during hours when renewable sources do not generate power (at night or during calm weather). Gas and even coal-fired power plants are still utilized for peak demand coverage and capacity reserve. In certain regions of Europe, last winter, power generation at coal plants had to be temporarily increased during periods of low wind – despite the environmental costs. Governments of many countries are actively investing in developing energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage plants) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly distributing load. These measures aim to increase the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES grows. Experts predict that already by 2026-2027, renewable sources may surpass coal in global electricity generation, definitively overtaking its position. However, in the next few years, there remains a need to maintain traditional power plants as a backup against outages. Thus, the energy transition reaches new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: High Demand Keeps the Market Stable
Despite the accelerated development of RES, the global coal market still maintains significant volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal fuel remains consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support intensive consumption of this resource. China, the largest consumer and producer of coal in the world, has come very close to record levels of electricity generation from coal this autumn. In October 2025, generation at Chinese thermal power plants (mostly coal-fired) increased by 7% compared to the previous year, reaching the highest level for this month in history and reflecting increased energy consumption (the total electricity production in China in October set a 30-year record). Meanwhile, coal production in China has decreased by ~2% due to enhanced safety measures in mines, leading to a rise in domestic prices. By mid-November, prices for energy coal in China rose to their maximum in the last year (around 835 yuan/ton at the key port hub Qinhuangdao), stimulating an increase in imports. Coal import volumes in China remain high – it is expected that in November the country will import about 28-29 million tons by sea, compared to a minimum of ~20 million tons in June this year. Increased Chinese demand supports global coal prices: prices for Indonesian and Australian thermal coal have risen to multi-month highs, being 30-40% above summer lows.
Other major importing countries, such as India, also actively use coal for electricity generation – more than 70% of generation in India still comes from coal-fired plants, and absolute coal consumption is growing alongside the economy. Many developing Southeast Asian nations (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to construct new coal power plants to meet the growing electricity demand from the population and industry. Leading coal exporters (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa) are increasing production and shipments to take advantage of favorable conditions. Overall, after the price spikes in 2022, the international coal market has returned to a more stable state. Although many countries have announced plans to reduce coal usage for climate goals, in the short term, this fuel remains indispensable for ensuring reliable energy supply. Analysts note that in the next 5-10 years, coal generation, especially in Asia, will retain a significant role, even amid global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector currently exhibits relative equilibrium: demand is consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry remains one of the fundamental pillars of global energy.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Stabilization Thanks to Government Measures
In the domestic fuel sector of Russia, operational steps are being taken to normalize the price situation. As early as late summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the country reached record levels, causing localized fuel shortages at several gas stations. The government was forced to strengthen market regulation: starting in September, export restrictions on petroleum products were introduced, while refineries increased production after completing scheduled repairs. By mid-October, thanks to these measures, exchange prices for fuel started to decline from peak levels.
The downward trend has also persisted in November. According to the Saint Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, as of the week ending November 21, the price of Ai-92 gasoline fell by 5.3%, and Ai-95 by 2.6%. During the trading session on Friday, November 21, the price per ton of Ai-92 depreciated to 60,286 rubles, and Ai-95 to 71,055 rubles. The wholesale price of summer diesel fuel fell by 3.3% over the week. As Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted, the stabilization of the wholesale market will soon be reflected in the retail sector – consumer prices for gasoline have begun to decline for the second week in a row (on average down by 13-15 kopecks per liter). On November 20, the State Duma adopted a law aimed at ensuring priority supply of fuel to the domestic market. The measures taken so far have already produced initial results: price increases have shifted to declines, and the situation is normalizing after the autumn fuel crisis. Authorities hope to maintain control over prices and prevent new spikes in fuel costs in the upcoming months.
