Main News of the Oil and Gas and Energy Sector as of November 17, 2025: Sanctions Shift Trade Flows, Cold Weather Affects Gas Supplies, Renewable Energy Share Grows. Trends Analysis and Forecasts for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex as of November 17, 2025, evolve against a backdrop of contradictory trends, drawing the attention of investors and market participants. Geopolitical tension remains high: the West is expanding sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector, forcing a realignment of hydrocarbon trade flows. Meanwhile, certain conflicts show signs of de-escalation – a truce continues to hold in the Middle East, and the US and China maintain a temporary trade truce, improving global demand forecasts. Oil prices have stabilized at moderate levels following a recent decline, with Brent trading around $63–65 per barrel and US WTI near $59–61. These levels are significantly lower than summer peaks and approximately 10% below values from a month ago, reflecting expectations of oil surplus by year-end. Traders are operating under a scenario where supply in Q4 will exceed demand, suppressing price growth. At the same time, factors are in place to prevent prices from falling sharply – the market is factoring in sanction risks and potential supply disruptions.
Oil Market: Surplus Persists, Export Flows Change
The global oil market continues to balance in a state of fragile equilibrium. By mid-November, oil prices stabilized after an autumn decline: Brent crude is trading around $63–65 per barrel, while US WTI hovers near $59–61. These prices are well below summer peaks and approximately 10% lower than figures from a month ago, reflecting expectations of a surplus by year-end. Traders anticipate that Q4 supply will exceed demand, limiting price increases. Concurrently, factors prevent a deep decline in prices, as the market considers sanction risks and potential supply disruptions.
- Increasing Production Amid Slowing Demand. OPEC+ countries are scheduled to increase oil production (with an expected rise of 137,000 barrels per day in December, followed by a pause until April). Outside the alliance, major producers such as the US, Brazil, and others have reached record levels of production. However, global oil consumption growth is slowing: recent forecasts suggest that in 2025, global demand will increase by less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to 2 million barrels per day in 2023), driven by economic slowdown and energy-saving measures.
- Sanctions and Redistribution of Flows. New US and UK sanctions against subsidiaries of major Russian oil companies (such as Rosneft, LUKOIL, etc.) are coming into effect, complicating the export of Russian oil. Moscow is being forced to redirect its supplies to alternative markets. Under pressure from Western partners, Indian refiners have announced their willingness to significantly reduce purchases of Russian oil by the end of November to comply with sanction limitations. The potential loss of India as a key buyer could radically restructure global crude flows, intensifying competition for market share. Russian exporters are already offering crude with deeper discounts in an attempt to retain Asian clients.
- Geopolitical Risks Support Prices. Military conflicts continue to threaten the stability of energy supplies. The confrontation surrounding Ukraine remains unresolved: in mid-November, a Ukrainian drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk damaged oil infrastructure, causing a temporary halt in shipments and a price spike of over 2%. Tension in the Middle East has eased somewhat due to the truce; however, the situation remains fragile. Such risks create a sort of "geopolitical premium" in the market, preventing prices from falling even further.
Gas Market: Resilience and Cold Weather Testing
The situation in the gas market is defined by seasonal balancing between high storage levels and weather challenges. Europe is entering the heating season with underground storage facilities filled to an average of around 80–82% — significantly lower than the record 92% from a year ago, but still providing a substantial margin of resilience. Thanks to a mild autumn, European gas prices previously fell to comfortable lows: the TTF base futures recently dropped to about €30 per MWh (around $10 per million BTUs), marking the lowest level since spring 2024. However, the anticipated cold weather is bringing volatility back to the market: as winter approaches, prices have bounced off their lows and begun to rise.
- High Stocks vs. Increasing Consumption. Meteorologists are warning of a sharp drop in temperatures in Western Europe (5–7°C below normal), which will significantly increase gas consumption for heating in the coming week. If winter proves harsh and prolonged, European supplies may be depleted faster than usual, leading to a new surge in prices and necessitating increased gas imports.
- The Role of LNG in the Balance. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains a key source for meeting EU needs following a sharp reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. European LNG imports remain high due to record exports from the US, Qatar, and other producers. Meanwhile, demand for gas in Asia is moderate: China's economic slowdown and full storage in East Asia mean that there has been little competition between Europe and Asia for LNG this autumn. This balance in the global LNG market has helped keep prices in Europe from spiking dramatically.
Electricity: Record Renewables and Power System Reliability
The global electricity sector is undergoing massive structural changes driven by the growth of renewable energy sources and the modernization of power grids. In 2025, many countries have reported record levels of electricity generation from renewables, gradually displacing coal generation. Analysts estimate that in the first half of 2025, global generation from renewables surpassed output from coal-fired power plants for the first time. In several developed countries, solar and wind energy accounted for 80–100% of consumption at various points (during certain hours in Europe). Similar trends are observed in large Asian economies (China, India) and North America (USA, Canada), indicating the success of the global energy transition. Simultaneously, such rapid growth in renewables poses new challenges for ensuring the reliability of power systems during the transition period.
- Reliability of Energy Supply. The variable nature of wind and solar generation requires accelerated development of energy storage systems and backup capacities. Gas and coal-fired power plants are currently used to cover peak loads during winter hours, although their role is gradually diminishing. In countries with developed energy systems, it is expected that existing reserve capacities will be sufficient even during abnormal cold spells, although prices for electricity may rise during peak periods. Energy companies are actively investing in upgrading networks and industrial storage systems to maintain reliability of energy supply as the share of renewables increases.
- Government Policy and New Technologies. Governments worldwide are supporting the push towards decarbonizing the energy sector. The EU has adopted new ambitious targets for the share of renewables by 2030; China and India are implementing large-scale programs for constructing solar and wind power plants; in the USA, updated clean energy incentives are being introduced. Concurrently, interest is growing in "clean" nuclear power and hydrogen technologies as important components of the future energy system. Thus, the energy sector is moving towards a more sustainable model: "green" capacities are increasing, infrastructure is being renewed, and simultaneous measures are being taken to maintain stability in energy supply during the transition period.
Coal Sector: Demand Plateau, Oversupply Pressures Prices
The coal industry has reached a turning point: global demand has stabilized around a historical peak and is beginning to gradually decline, while production remains high. Traditional industry markets are feeling increasing pressure from environmental regulations and competition from cheap renewables.
- Peak Consumption Reached. Global coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record ~8.8 billion tons in 2024, but growth has stalled in 2025. World forecasts indicate a "plateau" in 2025–2026, followed by a subsequent decline in demand due to tightening climate policies and accelerated development of renewable energy.
- Oversupply and Falling Prices. Coal production is still at peak levels, resulting in excess stocks on the market. Global coal prices have dropped to their lowest levels in recent years, reducing profitability for coal companies. Exporters with high costs (including a number of Russian enterprises) are facing particular difficulties. The market is responding: many producers are forced to cut back on production and investment to adapt to the new realities.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Climate Commitments
The renewable energy sector continues to demonstrate accelerated growth, although to achieve global climate goals, the pace of clean energy deployment needs to be further increased. The year 2025 may become a record year for "green" energy, as governments across various countries prepare additional support for low-carbon projects.
- Unprecedented Capacity Increase. In 2024, approximately 582 GW of new renewable capacity was installed worldwide, marking a historic maximum. In 2025, an increase of up to 700 GW is expected — an unprecedented rate of expansion. However, to meet long-term climate scenarios (such as tripling installed renewable capacity by 2030), even higher annual installation rates of around 15–20% will be needed.
- New Climate Commitments. At the upcoming UN climate summit (COP30) at the end of November, countries plan to discuss strengthening commitments to transition to clean energy. Many governments are already announcing ambitious renewable energy development goals, and despite individual challenges (such as subsidy revisions or project delays), the global energy transition is becoming irreversible. The declining cost of solar panels and wind turbines, as well as the advancement of storage and hydrogen energy technologies, backed by political will, is facilitating further record growth in the "green" sector and the gradual displacement of fossil fuels.
Refining and Fuel Market: Market Stabilization and Price Control
After the turbulence of early autumn, the global product market is showing signs of stabilization. The decrease in oil prices and seasonal reduction in fuel demand (with the end of the summer driving season) allowed refineries to increase production and replenish supplies of gasoline and diesel. In Europe and the US, wholesale prices for petroleum products have retreated from September peaks, leading to moderate price reductions for end consumers. The situation in the Russian domestic market, which experienced a sharp gasoline shortage in September, has also normalized thanks to the emergency measures taken by authorities.
- Anti-Crisis Measures in Russia. The Russian government has temporarily banned the export of automotive gasoline and diesel fuel while also increasing subsidies for refiners to direct more resources to the domestic market. These measures allowed for a rapid elimination of shortages: fuel production has returned to previous levels, gas stations are supplied, and wholesale prices are declining. Authorities state their intention to gradually lift export restrictions as market stability is established.
- Global Fuel Price Stabilization. In the fall, the global market for petroleum products received a reprieve. The increase in gasoline and diesel exports from OPEC countries and Asia has partially compensated for the volumes lost from Russia, while seasonal demand reductions have allowed for fuel stock replenishment. Prices for gasoline and diesel in major regions have returned to early summer levels: fuel has noticeably decreased in price compared to September highs in Europe and the US. It is expected that diesel and heating fuel consumption will traditionally rise in winter, but with stable oil prices, sharp fluctuations in petroleum product prices are not anticipated.
