Current Oil and Gas and Energy News as of December 12, 2025: Geopolitical Initiatives, Oil and Gas Price Balancing, Global LNG Growth, Russia's Shift to the East, Energy Transition, and Industry Forecasts — An Analytical Review for Investors and Energy Market Participants.
The focus is on the first signals of a potential easing of the sanctions confrontation surrounding Russian energy, the stabilization of oil and gas quotes against the backdrop of cautious OPEC+ policies and comfortable fuel supplies, as well as the latest events in the global energy sector. This overview is aimed at investors and participants in the fuel and energy complex, oil and gas, fuel and energy companies, and all those who monitor the dynamics of the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials markets.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply Puts Pressure on Prices
Global oil prices at the end of the year remain at a relatively stable level: Brent is around $60 per barrel, WTI is about $58. Recent expectations of a softening of the US Federal Reserve's policy gave quotes a slight boost, but overall, oil prices have fallen by about 15% since the beginning of 2025 due to the threat of excess supply amid moderate demand growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are maintaining a cautious strategy for managing production. At the December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ still keeps a significant part of its capacities in reserve — around 3 million barrels per day — to prevent a price collapse. With Brent at around $60, cartel representatives emphasize prioritizing market stabilization over the immediate urge to increase exports, taking into account the expected weakening demand in the future.
Several key factors are influencing price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is growing much slower than in previous years. The increase in 2025 is estimated at less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to approximately +2.5 million in 2023). Economic downturn and energy conservation following the period of high prices, as well as a slowdown in industrial activity in China, limit demand growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries have increased production in the first half of the year as restrictions were eased, but the threat of market oversaturation now curtails plans for further increases. The decision to maintain production cuts at the start of 2026 signals the coalition's readiness to prevent a surplus: if necessary, participants will quickly adjust exports if prices drop.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against several oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) constrain supply and support prices. However, no new significant shocks are currently observed; on the contrary, the first diplomatic initiatives for conflict resolution are emerging, reducing the risk premium. As a result, the oil market stays within a relatively narrow price corridor without sharp fluctuations.
Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Growing Supply
The gas market environment at the end of 2025 is relatively calm compared to the hype of two years ago. The European Union enters winter with no signs of gas shortages: EU underground storage facilities are over 70% full, significantly higher than the December average. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) hover around €30 per MWh, which is significantly lower than the peaks of 2022. The volumes of lost Russian gas are almost entirely offset by record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from alternative sources — terminals are actively receiving fuel from the USA, Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow due to the commissioning of new capacities. The USA is launching large export terminals (for example, Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico), strengthening its position as a leading supplier. Qatar, as part of the North Field expansion, plans to increase LNG production to 126 million tons per year by 2027, contracting significant volumes with buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also starting operations in other regions (Australia, Africa), increasing competition in the liquefied gas market.
At the same time, demand for gas is growing at a moderate pace. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased batches to the spot market due to temporarily weak consumption. Overall, the expansion of supply and restrained demand keeps global gas prices at relatively low levels. However, the weather factor remains critical: anomalously cold conditions or supply disruptions in winter could lead to temporary price spikes, even though the base scenario assumes price stability.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: The West's Tough Stance and Compromise Attempts
The confrontation between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although by the end of the year, attempts at dialogue have emerged. G7 and EU countries maintain a tough sanctions line: there is an embargo on Russian oil, export restrictions on oil products, a price cap has been established, and financial sanctions complicate trade in energy resources from Russia. Moreover, new restrictions are being discussed for early 2026 — allies aim to close the remaining loopholes and are ready to tighten pressure if the military conflict continues.
At the same time, the European Union is making steps towards complete energy independence from Russia. On December 10, EU ambassadors approved a plan to legislatively abandon Russian energy carriers by the end of 2027 — ceasing purchases of natural gas (including LNG) and oil along with oil products. The EU describes this step as "the beginning of a new era," which will permanently free the European energy sector from dependency on Russian fuel, entrenching the legal separation from Russia and stimulating the development of alternative sources — from increasing LNG imports to the accelerated implementation of renewable energy sources (RES). Moscow has reacted critically to the EU’s strategy, warning that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will lead to increased costs for Europe. Nonetheless, Brussels demonstrates a willingness to pay this price for geopolitical objectives.
The USA, according to media reports, has proposed a plan to allies for the gradual reintegration of Russia into the global economy following a peaceful settlement — including lifting sanctions and resuming the export of Russian energy resources to Europe. However, the EU regards such initiatives with caution and rules out softening its stance without real progress in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
Russia's Shift to Asian Markets
Faced with the loss of Western markets, Russia is ramping up energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: at the end of August, the first batch of liquefied gas was dispatched from the new Arctic LNG-2 plant to the PRC. In the autumn, shipments of Russian LNG to China increased at double-digit rates — Beijing is actively increasing fuel purchases at a 30-40% discount, ignoring Western sanctions pressure. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with an alternative market while offering China cheap raw materials for its economy.
India also remains among the largest buyers of Russian hydrocarbons. Following the introduction of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries significantly increased imports of Russian Urals crude and other grades at reduced prices. The Russian leadership assured partners of its readiness to provide India with stable volumes of oil and oil products. Cheap resources from Russia help meet India's rapidly growing demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi is trying to avoid critical dependence on a single supplier.
To solidify its Eastern pivot, Russia is developing export infrastructure. A project for a new pipeline "Power of Siberia – 2" through Mongolia to China is under discussion, which can significantly increase gas supplies to Asia in the future. Simultaneously, Russia is building its tanker fleet to deliver oil to the markets of India, China, and Southeast Asia, reducing dependence on Western carriers and insurance services. These steps aim to make the long-term transfer of energy flows to the East irreversible and decrease Russia's dependence on the European market.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine also affects energy resource export routes. At the beginning of December, a drone attack damaged the maritime terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk. Although shipments of Kazakh oil have not completely stopped, Astana has decided to expedite diversification. The Government of Kazakhstan announced the redirection of some oil from the Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing shipments through Caspian ports to reduce dependence on the route through Russia.
To enhance energy security, Kazakhstan also plans to build a new oil refinery with foreign investment. Expanding domestic capacities for the production of oil products will allow the country to reduce fuel imports and increase the resilience of the oil and gas sector to external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, although international climate agreements are stalled. At the UN COP30 conference (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), a strict plan for phasing out fossil fuels could not be adopted — several major oil and gas exporters blocked EU initiatives to set specific deadlines for gradually stopping production. The final agreement turned out to be a compromise, shifting the focus to funding climate adaptation and overall emission reduction goals without clear timelines for phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the lack of clear commitments, leading economies are practically increasing investments in green energy. The year 2025 became a record in terms of new solar and wind power plants commissioned in many countries. China, India, the USA, the European Union, and others are actively investing in renewable energy sources (RES), storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, aiming to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, however, there have been setbacks from the decarbonization course. High natural gas prices in 2025 forced several countries to increase coal burning for electricity generation to get through the heating season — global demand for coal remains high. Experts consider this move a temporary measure. As the share of RES increases and energy storage technologies improve, the consumption of coal and other fossil resources will begin to decline again. Thus, the long-term trend toward the transition to clean energy remains, albeit with some delays along the way.
Forecasts: Early 2026
Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure due to high inventories and supply outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average Brent price may drop to the range of $55–60 per barrel. At the same time, geopolitical factors could sharply alter the price landscape: escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the introduction of new sanctions, and crises in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Latin America) could lead to significant price fluctuations.
For the gas market, the weather remains a determining factor. If the winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel inventories are sufficient, European gas prices will remain low. However, several weeks of anomalously cold weather could quickly deplete underground storage facilities and trigger price spikes. Furthermore, competition for LNG between Europe and Asia may intensify if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Participants in the fuel and energy sector in 2026 will need to adapt to the new conditions. Supply diversification, improving energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including the development of RES and carbon capture technologies) will be key to business resilience. The outgoing year of 2025 has vividly demonstrated the close interconnectedness of the economy, politics, and ecology in shaping the prices of oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to strengthen: the global market will balance between oversupply and deficit risks, while the global community and authorities will strive to combine energy security with climate goals.
