Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Market: Oil, Gas, Electricity, and RES — Energy Sector News January 4, 2026

News from the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector – Sunday, January 4, 2026: OPEC+ Maintains Production Policy; Sanction Pressures Intensify; Gas Market Stability; Accelerating Energy Transition

Recent events in the fuel and energy complex on January 4, 2026, attract investor attention due to a combination of market stability and geopolitical tension. At the center of focus is the meeting of key OPEC+ countries, which decided to maintain existing production quotas. This means that the global oil market continues to experience oversupply, keeping Brent prices around $60 per barrel (almost 20% lower than a year earlier, following the largest decline since 2020). The European gas market demonstrates relative resilience: even in the middle of winter, volumes of gas in EU underground storage remain above historical averages, which, along with record LNG imports, maintains gas prices at a moderate level. Concurrently, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—many countries are setting new records for generation from renewable sources and increasing investments in clean energy. However, geopolitical factors continue to create uncertainty: the sanctions struggle surrounding energy exports remains not only in place but is tightening, leading to localized supply disruptions and changing trade routes. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.

Oil Market: OPEC+ Decisions and Price Pressure

• OPEC+ Policy: At its first meeting in 2026, the OPEC+ group decided to leave production unchanged, fulfilling its promise to suspend quota increases for the first quarter. In 2025, the alliance already increased total production by nearly 2.9 million bbl/day (about 3% of global demand), but the recent sharp price decline forced countries to act cautiously. Maintaining these restrictions aims to prevent further price falls, although there is little room for price increases given the well-supplied global oil market.
• Oversupply: Analysts forecast that in 2026, oil supply will exceed demand by approximately 3–4 million barrels per day. High production in OPEC+ countries, along with record output in the US, Brazil, and Canada, has led to significant oil stockpiles. Onshore storage is full, and tanker fleets are transporting record volumes of oil, signaling market saturation. This exerts pressure on prices: Brent and WTI have stabilized in a narrow corridor around $60.
• Market Demand Factors: The global economy shows moderate growth, supporting global oil demand. A slight increase in consumption is expected—primarily due to Asia and the Middle East, where industry and transportation are expanding. However, slowdowns in Europe and tight monetary policy in the US restrain demand growth. In China, government strategies to fill reserves dampened price fluctuations last year: Beijing actively purchased cheaper oil for strategic reserves, creating a sort of price floor. In 2026, there remains limited room for China to continue increasing reserves, making its import policy a decisive factor for the oil market.
• Geopolitics and Prices: Geopolitics remains a key uncertainty for the oil market. The prospects for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine remain unclear; therefore, sanctions against Russian oil exports continue to be enforced. If progress is made during the year and sanctions are lifted, the return of significant Russian volumes to the market could exacerbate oversupply and exert additional downward pressure on prices. For now, the maintenance of these restrictions supports a certain balance, preventing prices from falling too low.

Gas Market: Stable Supplies and Price Comfort

• European Stocks: EU countries entered 2026 with high gas reserves. By early January, underground storage in Europe was over 60% full, just slightly below record levels from a year ago. Thanks to a mild start to winter and energy-saving measures, gas withdrawal from storage is occurring at moderate rates. This creates a robust reserve for the remaining cold months and calms the market: gas prices on exchanges remain in the range of ~$9–10 per million BTUs (around €28–30 per MWh based on the TTF index), significantly lower than the peaks of the 2022 crisis.
• LNG Imports: To compensate for reduced pipeline supplies from Russia (by the end of 2025, Russian gas exports via pipelines to Europe had fallen by more than 40%), European countries increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases. In 2025, the EU's LNG imports grew by approximately 25%, mainly due to supplies from the US and Qatar, as well as the commissioning of new terminals. A stable influx of LNG has helped to mitigate the effects of declining Russian gas and diversify supply sources, enhancing Europe’s energy security.
• Asian Factor: Despite Europe’s focus on LNG, the balance of the global gas market also depends on demand in Asia. Last year, China and India increased gas imports to support industry and power generation. At the same time, trade friction led China to reduce purchases of US LNG (with additional tariffication on energy imports from the US), redistributing some demand towards other suppliers. If Asian economies accelerate in 2026, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes could intensify, potentially driving prices up. However, for now, the situation remains balanced, and under normal weather conditions, experts anticipate continued relative stability in the gas market.
• Future Strategy: The European Union aims to secure the progress made in reducing dependence on Russian gas. The official goal is to completely halt gas imports from Russia by 2028, which involves further expanding LNG infrastructure, developing alternative pipeline routes, and increasing domestic production/replacement. Simultaneously, governments are discussing extending target norms for storage filling in the coming years (at least 90% by October 1). These measures are designed to ensure resilience in the event of cold winters and market volatility in the future.

International Politics: Intensifying Sanctions and New Risks

• Escalation in Venezuela: At the beginning of the year, a high-profile event occurred: the US took military action against the Venezuelan government. American special forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, accused by Washington of drug trafficking and usurping power. Simultaneously, the US tightened oil sanctions: in December, a sea blockade of Venezuela was announced, intercepting and confiscating several tanker shipments of Venezuelan oil. These steps have already reduced oil exports from Venezuela – in December, it fell to around 0.5 million barrels/day (nearly half the level from November). While production and refining in Venezuela continue to operate normally, the political crisis creates uncertainty for future supplies. The market is factoring in these risks: although Venezuela's share in global exports is small, the US's hardline stance signals possible repercussions for all importers bypassing sanctions.
• Russian Energy Carriers: Dialogue between Moscow and the West regarding the review of sanctions on Russian oil and gas has yielded little result. The US and EU are extending existing restrictions and price ceilings on Russian raw materials, linking their easing to progress on Ukraine. Moreover, the US administration has indicated it is prepared for further measures: new sanctions against Chinese and Indian companies aiding in transporting or purchasing Russian oil outside established limits are under discussion. These signals in the market support a "risk premium" element, particularly in the tanker segment, where freight and insurance costs for oil of dubious origin are increasing.
• Conflicts and Supply Security: Military and political conflicts continue to impact energy markets. Tensions remain in the Black Sea region: during the holiday period, reports emerged of strikes against port infrastructure linked to the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. So far, this has not caused serious export disruptions, but the risk to oil and grain transportation through sea corridors remains high. In the Middle East, the contradictions between key OPEC players—the Saudi Arabia and the UAE—have exacerbated due to the situation in Yemen, where UAE-backed forces have clashed with Saudi allies. Nonetheless, within OPEC, these disagreements have yet to hinder cooperation: historically, the cartel has sought to separate politics from the common goal of maintaining oil market stability.

Asia: India and China's Strategies Amid Challenges

• India's Import Policy: In the face of tightening Western sanctions, India must navigate the demands of its allies and its own energy needs. New Delhi has not officially joined the sanctions against Moscow and continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil and coal at favorable terms. Russian raw material supplies account for over 20% of India’s oil imports, and the nation considers a sharp withdrawal from them impossible. Nevertheless, logistical and financial constraints have arisen: by the end of 2025, Indian refineries slightly reduced purchases of crude from Russia. Traders estimate that in December, imports of Russian oil to India decreased to ~1.2 million bbl/day—the lowest level in the past couple of years (down from a record ~1.8 million bbl/day the previous month). To avoid shortages, India’s largest refining corporation, Indian Oil, has activated options to procure additional volumes of oil from Colombia and is negotiating contracts with Middle Eastern and African suppliers. Simultaneously, India demands preferences: Russian companies offer Urals oil at a discount of ~$4–5 to Brent, maintaining the competitiveness of these barrels even under sanction pressure. In the long term, India is increasing its own production: the state-owned ONGC is developing deepwater fields in the Andaman Sea, with initial drilling results being promising. Despite these steps towards self-sufficiency, the country will remain heavily dependent on imports (over 85% of its consumed oil comes from foreign purchases) for the next few years.
• China's Energy Security: The largest economy in Asia continues to balance between increasing domestic production and boosting energy resource imports. China, which has not joined sanctions against Russia, has taken advantage of the situation to increase purchases of Russian oil and gas at reduced prices. By the end of 2025, China's oil imports were again near record levels, reaching about 11 million bbl/day (just below the peak of 2023). Gas imports—both LNG and pipeline—remain high, ensuring fuel supply for industrial enterprises and heating energy during the economic recovery. Simultaneously, Beijing is annually increasing its domestic production: oil production in the country reached a historical maximum of ~215 million tons (≈4.3 million bbl/day, +1% y/y) in 2025, and natural gas production exceeded 175 billion cubic meters (+5–6% year on year). Although the growth of domestic production helps cover some demand, China still imports about 70% of the oil it consumes and ~40% of its gas. In an effort to enhance energy security, Chinese authorities are investing in the development of new fields, technology to increase oil recovery, and expanding storage capacities for strategic reserves. In the coming years, Beijing will continue to build significant oil reserves, creating a "safety cushion" against market shocks. Thus, India and China—two largest consumers in Asia—are flexibly adapting to the new environment, combining import diversification with the development of their own resource base.

Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation

• Growth of Renewable Generation: The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. By the end of 2025, many countries saw historic records in electricity generation from renewable sources. In the European Union, total generation from solar and wind power plants surpassed production from coal and gas power facilities for the first time. In the US, the share of renewables in electricity production exceeded 30%, and the total volume of energy obtained from solar and wind surpassed that produced by coal power plants for the first time. China, remaining the world leader in installed renewable capacity, added dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines last year, setting new records for "green" energy. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds directed towards renewable projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
• Integration Challenges: The impressive growth of renewable energy brings new challenges along with its benefits. The main issue is ensuring the stability of the energy system amid an increasing share of variable sources. In 2025, many countries faced the necessity to balance increased sun and wind generation with reserves from traditional generation. In Europe and the US, gas power plants continue to play a key role as flexible capacities that cover peak loads or compensate for the decline of renewable energy during unfavorable weather. China and India, despite large-scale renewable energy construction, continue to commission modern coal and gas stations to meet rapidly growing electricity demand. Thus, the energy transition phase characterizes a paradox: on the one hand, new "green" records are being set, while on the other, traditional hydrocarbon sources remain necessary for the reliable functioning of energy systems during the transition period.
• Policies and Goals: Governments around the world are enhancing incentives for "green" energy—tax breaks, subsidies, and innovative programs aimed at accelerating decarbonization are being implemented. Major economies declare ambitious goals: the EU and the UK aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, China by 2060, and India by 2070. However, achieving these goals requires not only investments in generation but also the development of energy storage and distribution infrastructure. In the coming years, breakthroughs in industrial storage are expected: the cost of lithium-ion batteries is decreasing, and their mass production (especially in China) has increased significantly. By 2030, global storage capacity systems may exceed 500 GWh, enhancing the flexibility of energy systems and enabling the integration of even more renewables without risking disruptions.

Coal Sector: Steady Demand Amid Green Transition

• Historical Highs: Despite the focus on decarbonization, global coal consumption reached a new record in 2025. According to the IEA, it amounted to about 8.85 billion tons (+0.5% to 2024), driven by increased demand in the energy and industrial sectors of several countries. Coal usage remains particularly high in the Asia-Pacific region: rapid economic growth, along with a lack of alternatives in some developing countries, supports significant demand for coal fuel. China—being the world’s largest consumer and producer of coal—has once again approached peak combustion levels: annual coal production from Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons, nearly covering domestic needs. India has also increased its coal use to meet about 70% of its electricity generation.
• Market Dynamics: Following the price shocks of 2022, global prices for thermal coal have stabilized within a narrower range. In 2025, coal quotations fluctuated in equilibrium of supply and demand: on one hand, high demand in Asia and seasonal fluctuations (e.g., increased consumption in hot summer months for air conditioning) support prices; on the other hand, increased exports from countries like Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia keep the market balanced. Many governments declare plans to gradually reduce coal usage to achieve climate goals, but no significant drop in coal's share is anticipated on the horizon over the next 5-10 years. For billions of people worldwide, electricity from coal-fired power plants continues to provide basic supply stability, especially in areas where renewables have yet to fully replace traditional generation.
• Outlook and Transition Period: Global demand for coal is expected to start noticeably declining only by the end of the decade, as larger renewable capacity is brought online, along with the development of nuclear energy and gas generation. However, the transition will be uneven: in some years, local spikes in coal consumption may occur due to weather factors (such as droughts reducing hydropower production or severe winters). Governments must balance energy security with environmental commitments. Many countries are introducing carbon taxes and quota systems to stimulate a move away from coal while simultaneously investing in retraining workers from the coal sector and diversifying the economies of coal-producing regions. Thus, the coal sector remains significant, albeit the green transition of developed countries gradually limits its long-term prospects.

Refining and Oil Products: Diesel Shortages and New Restrictions

• Diesel Shortage: A paradoxical situation developed in the global oil product market by the end of 2025: oil prices were falling while refining margins, especially for diesel fuel, significantly increased. In Europe, the profitability of diesel production rose by about 30% over the year. The reasons are structural and geopolitical. On one hand, the EU’s ban on importing oil products made from Russian oil has reduced the available supply of diesel fuel and other light oil products in the European market. On the other hand, military actions have led to attacks on refineries: for example, strikes on Ukrainian refineries and infrastructure limited local fuel production. As a result, diesel availability in the region has been constrained, and its prices remain at high levels despite the overall cheapness of oil.
• Limited Capacities: Globally, the refining sector is experiencing a shortage of available capacity. In developed countries, major oil companies have closed or repurposed several refineries in recent years (including for environmental reasons), and no new refining projects are expected to come online in the near future. This means that the oil products market remains in structural deficit for some types of fuels. Investors and traders expect high margins for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline to persist at least until new capacities are brought online or demand decreases due to the transition to electric vehicles and other energy sources.
• Impact of Sanctions and Regional Aspects: Sanction policies continue to influence the refining and trading of oil products. Venezuela’s state-owned company PDVSA, for example, has accumulated significant stocks of heavy oil residues (fuel oil) due to export restrictions: US sanctions have severely limited the sale opportunities for this raw material. This leads to shortages of bunker fuel in regions previously dependent on Venezuelan supplies and forces consumers to seek alternative suppliers. Conversely, in other regions, opportunities are emerging: some Asian refineries are increasing their throughput by processing discounted Russian oil and subsequently partially meeting demand in Africa and Latin America, where fuel shortages are felt.

Russian Fuel Market: Continuation of Stabilization Measures

• Export Restrictions: To prevent shortages in the domestic market, Russia is extending emergency measures introduced in the autumn of 2025. The government has officially extended the complete ban on exporting motor gasoline and diesel fuel until February 28, 2026. This measure releases additional volumes of fuel for domestic consumption—estimated at 200,000 to 300,000 tons per month that were previously sent for export. As a result, gas stations within the country are better supplied with fuel during the winter period, and wholesale prices have significantly retreated from peak values observed at the end of summer.
• Financial Support for the Industry: Authorities maintain a range of incentives for refiners to ensure sufficient fuel volumes directed towards the domestic market. Starting January 1, excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel have been increased by 5.1%, raising the tax burden. However, oil companies continue to receive compensation through a damping mechanism. The "dampener" compensates part of the difference between high global prices and lower domestic prices, allowing refineries to avoid losses when selling fuel domestically. Thanks to subsidies and compensations, plants find it economically feasible to direct products to domestic gas stations, maintaining stable prices for end consumers.
• Monitoring and Quick Response: Regulatory bodies (Minenergoprom, the FAS, etc.) continue the daily monitoring of the fuel supply situation in regions. There is increased control over refinery operations and supply logistics; authorities have stated their readiness to immediately engage reserve supplies or introduce new restrictions should disruptions occur. A recent incident at one of the southern refineries (the Ilysky refinery in Krasnodar Krai was attacked by a drone, causing a fire) confirmed the effectiveness of such an approach: the accident was quickly localized, preventing gasoline shortages. Consequently, a comprehensive set of measures has kept retail prices at gas stations under control: over the past year, their growth has only been a few percent, close to overall inflation. Ahead of the 2026 sowing campaign, the government intends to continue taking preemptive actions to prevent new price spikes and ensure uninterrupted fuel supply to the economy.

Financial Markets and Indicators: Energy Sector Reaction

• Stock Dynamics: The stock indices of oil and gas companies generally reflected the decline in oil prices at the end of 2025. In Middle Eastern exchanges, which are oil-dependent, corrections were noted: for example, the Saudi Tadawul fell by about 1% in December, while the shares of major global oil and gas corporations (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, etc.) showed a slight decline due to falling upstream segment profits. Nonetheless, in the early days of 2026, the situation stabilized: investors have incorporated the anticipated OPEC+ decision into their pricing and perceived it as a factor of predictability. Consequently, stock quotes in the sector demonstrate a neutral-positive dynamic.
• Monetary Policy: Actions by central banks have an indirect influence on the fuel and energy sector. In several developing countries, a relaxation of monetary policy has commenced: for instance, the Central Bank of Egypt lowered its key interest rate by 100 bps in December after a period of high inflation. This supported the local stock market (+0.9% for the Egyptian index for the week) and may stimulate demand for energy resources domestically. In leading world economies, on the contrary, rates remain high to combat inflation, which somewhat cools business activity and restrains fuel consumption growth while simultaneously preventing capital outflows from commodity markets.
• Commodity-exporting Countries' Currencies: The currencies of energy-exporting countries maintain relative stability despite the volatility of oil quotations. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, and several currencies from the Persian Gulf countries are supported by substantial export revenues. At the end of 2025, in the face of falling oil prices, these currencies weakened only slightly, as the budgets of many of these countries were balanced on the basis of lower prices. The presence of sovereign funds and currency peg systems (like in Saudi Arabia) also smoothens fluctuations. For investors, this signals relative reliability: commodity economies are entering 2026 without signs of a currency crisis, positively impacting the investment climate in the energy sector.