News from the Oil and Gas and Energy Sector for Friday, January 23, 2026: Global Oil and Gas Market, Power Generation, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, Key Trends and Events in the Global Energy Sector.
As of January 23, 2026, the global fuel and energy sector is witnessing a revival. Oil prices are on the rise, fueled by new data and events, while gas prices in Europe are soaring due to abnormal cold weather, and the energy sector is undergoing significant changes. Key focuses include Venezuela's return to the oil market, a spike in gas prices in the EU, and records and trends in power generation. Below is an overview of the main events in the oil and gas and energy sectors relevant to investors and participants in the global energy market.
Global Oil Market: Price Trends and Supply
Global oil prices have continued to rise moderately. March futures for Brent are holding steady around $65 per barrel following the release of inventory data in the U.S. and due to limited supplies. Although oil prices dipped by approximately 18% in 2025 due to fears of market oversaturation, relative stabilization is being observed in the new year. Key OPEC+ countries continue to adhere to agreements to maintain limited production: earlier, eight leading exporters in the alliance decided to freeze planned production increases for the first quarter of 2026. This step is intended to support the balance between supply and demand after a period of declining prices.
Divergent factors are at play in the oil market. On one hand, there has been an unplanned reduction in supply: oil production at Kazakhstan's largest field, **Tengiz**, has been temporarily halted due to a technological incident. The operator of the field declared force majeure and canceled the shipment of approximately 700,000 tons of oil for January-February. This means a temporary decrease in the export of Caspian oil through the CPC pipeline, which slightly supports prices. On the other hand, new sources of raw materials are emerging in the market: The United States is effectively easing oil sanctions against Venezuela. American company Valero Energy has purchased its first batch of Venezuelan oil - the first such transaction in years - as part of agreements between Washington and Caracas. The return of Venezuelan oil to the global market after a long hiatus is increasing the availability of crude oil and could potentially intensify competition for market share.
Overall, the oil market is currently balancing between OPEC+ efforts to support prices and the influx of additional oil supplies. Despite sanction pressure, global producers are maintaining high production levels. For example, oil production in Russia in 2025 remained at the same level as the previous year (around 516 million tons) - highlighting the flexibility of oil companies in redirecting export flows. While oil prices are held within a relatively narrow corridor, investors in oil companies are assessing the risks: on one hand, limited supply and geopolitical factors support pricing; on the other hand, a potential demand slowdown and the emergence of new supplies (Venezuela, Guyana, increased production in Brazil, etc.) could limit price growth.
Gas Market: European Prices Surge Amid Cold Weather
The European gas market is experiencing a sharp price surge this winter. Abnormal cold and energy factors have caused spot gas prices in the EU to approach the psychological threshold of $500 per thousand cubic meters. At the Dutch TTF hub, gas quotations have risen more than 10% in just one day, reaching their highest level since mid-2025. The primary reason is a severe cold snap: January has become one of the coldest in Europe in the past 15 years, several degrees colder than the average. The frosty weather and clear, windless conditions have reduced wind energy production, increasing the load on gas-fired power plants and the energy system.
Simultaneously, gas reserves in European storage facilities are rapidly dwindling. The average filling level of European gas storage facilities has already dropped to approximately 48-49%, nearly 15 percentage points below the historical average for this time of year. In other words, gas from storage is being consumed faster than usual - estimates suggest that extraction rates are ahead of previous years by about a month. If the cold weather persists, there is a risk that gas storage facilities could be close to minimum levels by the end of winter, increasing market volatility.
- Supply constraints: Since the beginning of 2025, Europe has lost transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, reducing pipeline deliveries. The deficit has been attempted to be compensated by increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
- Record LNG imports: By the end of 2025, European countries imported about 109 million tons of LNG (approximately 142 billion cubic meters after regasification) — a 28% increase from the previous year. In January 2026, LNG imports may reach a record 10 million tons (+24% year-on-year), given that terminal capacities were utilized only halfway. This indicates that infrastructure still has the capacity to ramp up LNG reception.
- System burden: The high gas off-take for heating and electricity generation, combined with reduced wind generation, has exposed vulnerabilities in the energy system. European energy companies are compelled to burn more gas to maintain electricity supply, relying on storage reserves as the most flexible backup. At the same time, gas prices have increased in the U.S. – one of the key suppliers of LNG – which somewhat limits the capacity for rapid expansion of American fuel exports to Europe.
Looking ahead, the situation in the gas market will depend on weather and global supply. If February and March are milder, price growth may halt, allowing Europe to stabilize its remaining stocks. However, the current surge creates a “long tail” effect: the European Union will face the challenge of replenishing depleted storage rapidly by summer 2026. This means sustained high demand for LNG in the global market, at least in the coming months. Analysts also note that medium-term new large LNG projects in North America and the Middle East will enter the market, which may ease price conditions by 2027. However, for now, European gas consumers are entering the end of the winter season with heightened risks of shortages, and the market needs flexibility and additional fuel volumes for stabilization.
Power Generation and Renewables: Record Share and Decline of Coal
In the global power sector, the trend towards cleaner sources continues to gain momentum. Renewable energy sources (RES) set a new record in the European energy balance: by the end of 2025, the combined share of wind and solar generation in the European Union surpassed for the first time the share of electricity generated from fossil fuels. Wind and solar power plants accounted for about 30% of electricity production in the EU, while coal and gas stations accounted for about 29%. This symbolic shift demonstrates that green energy in Europe has taken a leading position, surpassing fossil sources in generation.
Positive changes are not only occurring in Europe. For the first time in half a century, a simultaneous decline in electricity production from coal has been recorded in the two largest developing economies – China and India. According to industry analysis, coal-fired power plants in China and India produced less energy in 2025 than the previous year, facilitated by the record increase of RES capacity. The growth of solar and wind farms in these countries has proved sufficient to cover the increased electricity demand, thereby reducing the need for coal. This moment is considered historic: the synchronous decline in coal generation in the two largest coal-importing countries indicates the beginning of structural changes in the Asian energy sector.
- Record investments: Global energy companies and investors are directing substantial resources towards the development of RES. The world continues to see a build-up of solar and wind energy capacity, supported by governmental initiatives and private capital. Many oil and gas corporations have announced diversification plans, investing in solar and wind projects, energy storage, and hydrogen production.
- Coal sector contraction: Although demand for coal remains high in certain regions (e.g., Southeast Asia), there is a global trend towards its decline. G7 countries and many developing economies are moving towards a phased abandonment of coal generation over the coming decades. The declining role of coal contributes to reducing emissions and stimulates demand for gas and RES as less carbon-intensive sources.
- Challenges in power generation: The growth of renewable generation necessitates the modernization of energy systems. For instance, a recent cold spell revealed that, in the absence of wind, the load shifts to traditional generation, particularly gas. To ensure stable electricity supply, countries are investing in energy storage systems, developing “smart” grids, and backup capacities. Thus, reliability of energy supply is increased amid the volatility of renewable sources.
Overall, the energy transition continues to deepen. The year 2025 was one of the warmest on record and at the same time the year with a record increase in clean energy. This confirms the inextricable link between climate goals and the restructuring of the energy sector. For the electricity market, the global trend is that the share of RES will continue to grow, while traditional forms of generation (coal, and potentially gas) will occupy a gradually shrinking space. Energy investors are taking these changes into account, betting on sustainable and environmentally friendly projects, which is influencing the capitalization of companies in the sector.
Energy Geopolitics and Sanctions: New Strikes and Adaptation
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a powerful influence on oil and gas markets. In 2026, sanction pressure on traditional energy resource exporters is expanding, while localized easing is emerging for some countries. In the U.S., a new package of sanctions targeting the Russian fuel and energy sector is under discussion: the so-called “Russia Sanctions Act - 2025” foresees the introduction of 500% tariffs on trade in Russian oil, gas, coal, oil products, and uranium for any countries that continue to engage in such transactions. Last year, the Donald Trump administration suspended this legislative initiative; however, in January 2026, signals emerged regarding a willingness to revisit it, contingent on such harsh measures being applied only if necessary. Nevertheless, even the threat of such tariffs is already influencing the behavior of buyers of Russian raw materials.
India, which previously became the largest importer of Russian oil, has significantly reduced its purchases. According to market data, supplies of Russian oil to Indian refineries at the beginning of 2026 dropped nearly by half compared to the peak volumes of mid-2025. This occurred after Washington intensified pressure: in August 2025, the U.S. increased tariffs on Indian goods by 25%, and in October imposed sanctions on several major Russian energy companies. As a result, Indian refineries diversified their sources of raw materials, reducing the share of Russia. Other countries are acting similarly: fearing secondary sanctions, they are reducing cooperation with Moscow in the oil and gas sector. Many Western fuel companies and traders have previously exited the Russian market altogether, forcing Russia to pivot its exports to friendly jurisdictions (China, Turkey, the Middle East, Africa) and offer discounts on its crude oil.
European Union countries continue to adhere to a sanction policy in the energy sector. In enforcing the oil embargo and price cap, the EU has strengthened monitoring of compliance with restrictions. For instance, on January 22, France detained a tanker carrying Russian oil in the Mediterranean Sea, suspecting it of violating sanction requirements. According to President Emmanuel Macron, the operation was conducted in cooperation with allies and demonstrates Europe’s determination to combat circumvention of implemented measures. The detained vessel has been redirected to port for investigation; this precedent serves as a signal for the market that European regulators will strictly curb unauthorized exports of oil and oil products from Russia.
At the same time, the sanction confrontation on a global scale is acquiring a selective character. Along with a strict position on Russian energy resources, Washington is taking steps toward other players: as noted, the U.S. has eased restrictions on Venezuela, partially allowing the export of Venezuelan oil to the global market in exchange for political concessions. Additionally, in January 2026, the American administration announced the introduction of additional 25% tariffs for countries continuing cooperation with Iran in the oil and gas sector – part of the strategy to exert pressure on Tehran. Thus, the geopolitical landscape is complex: some supply channels are being blocked, while others are opening. The energy resource market is adapting to new realities: alternative logistics chains are emerging, “shadow” fleets of tankers are developing to circumvent restrictions, and new trade partnerships are forming. In the short term, sanctions create uncertainty and regional supply imbalances – for example, Europe and the U.S. are tightening control over Russian exports, while Asia is benefiting from discounts. However, in the long term, participants in the energy sector are seeking stability: even under sanctions, Russian oil exports remain close to pre-crisis levels, and global oil and gas flows are gradually being reconfigured, reducing the system’s vulnerability to political factors.
Market Prospects: Demand, Investments, and Energy Transition
Forecasts for 2026 in the oil and gas sector reflect cautious optimism. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand in 2026 will reach approximately 104.8 million barrels per day – only 0.8% higher than in 2025. The slowdown in growth rates is attributed to modest economic growth and energy-saving measures. In developed countries, oil demand is stagnating or decreasing structurally: for example, consumption of oil products in Europe and Japan remains at multi-year lows, and in the U.S. – the largest consumer – total oil consumption is expected to remain close to the levels of 2025. The main increases in demand are shifting to the developing economies of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with China leading the charge. However, even in China and India, demand is growing less dynamically than previously forecasted, partially due to accelerated electrification and the penetration of RES.
In contrast, the supply side may see a more notable increase. Non-OPEC+ producers are planning to ramp up production: by 2026, non-OPEC supplies could increase by more than 1 million barrels per day. Most of the new volume will come from projects in the Western Hemisphere. In Brazil, large oil fields in the pre-salt shelf will continue to ramp up production, which, according to EIA forecasts, will add about 0.2 million barrels per day to the country's output (up to 4 million barrels per day). New players are also entering the arena: Guyana is increasing exports from its recently developed offshore blocks, oil production from tar sands is expanding in Canada, and the U.S. shale sector remains resilient even at moderate oil prices due to efficiency gains and reduced costs. These factors will likely lead the global oil market to experience pressure due to oversupply. Major investment banks have already adjusted their price forecasts: for instance, Goldman Sachs expects the average annual price of Brent to be around $56 per barrel in 2026, while JP Morgan analysts see a range of $57–58 per barrel for Brent in 2026–2027. This is markedly lower than the levels at the beginning of the year, signaling a likely shift in balance toward buyers unless new emergencies occur.
The gas market is similarly moving towards an abundance of supply in the medium term. According to industry reports, significant liquefaction capacities in the U.S., Qatar, and East Africa will come online in 2026–2027. A wave of new LNG may create a situation in the gas market where buyers dictate terms – especially in Asia and Europe, where demand growth for gas is expected to slow due to high baselines from past years and climate policy. Experts believe that after the current winter spike in prices, relative easing of gas quotes could occur by the end of 2026: additional LNG volumes and inventory replenishment would reduce supply shortage risks. Nevertheless, the gas market will remain volatile: weather anomalies, competition for resources between Europe and Asia, and geopolitical factors (e.g., the situation regarding gas exports from the Eastern Mediterranean or Central Asia) will periodically cause price fluctuations.
Investments in the energy sector remain at high levels despite all the transformations. Major oil and gas powers are declaring large investments in the sector. For instance, Russia plans to invest around 4 trillion rubles in the development of oil refining and gas chemistry by the end of the decade (a figure stated by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak). Similarly, countries in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) are implementing mega-projects to expand refining capacities and LNG production, seeking to monetize resources before peak global demand. At the same time, an increasing amount of funding is directed toward clean energy: global investments in renewable projects, energy efficiency, and electric transport are hitting records. Traditional oil and gas companies face a choice – to maximize returns from existing fields and refineries or to pivot toward new energy markets. In practice, most energy holdings balance these tasks, investing in both oil and gas production and low-carbon directions.
Thus, the beginning of 2026 presents a mixed picture for investors and participants in the energy sector. On one hand, the oil and gas sector continues to generate significant profits and remains the backbone of global energy supply – despite a slow growth rate, the demand for oil and gas is close to record highs in absolute terms. On the other hand, the structural shift towards cleaner energy sources is accelerating, gradually transforming the industry. Oil and gas markets will closely monitor the balance in the coming months: whether OPEC+ will have the resolve to avert oversupply, how quickly global LNG will cover new needs, and what steps the major economies will take regarding energy policy. The uncertainty in the industry remains high in 2026, but this also creates new opportunities – from advantageous raw material purchases during price dips to investments in innovative energy projects. Market participants, whether oil and fuel companies or financial investors, are adapting to the new reality where business resilience is defined by the ability to respond to geopolitical challenges and simultaneously prepare for the energy transition. Ultimately, the global fuel and energy sector is entering 2026 in a state of fragile equilibrium, signaling the need for careful strategic decisions to ensure stability and growth.
