Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, January 30, 2026: Oil, Gas, LNG, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Key Events in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Industry Participants
At the end of January 2026, the global fuel and energy complex is facing a series of new challenges. Extreme winter cold and geopolitical tension are impacting oil, gas, and electricity markets, while the transition to clean energy continues. Investors and energy market participants are analyzing how weather anomalies, sanctions policy, and new agreements are shifting the supply-demand balance in the oil and gas industry and energy sector.
- Frosts and Production: An Arctic storm in North America temporarily reduced oil production by around 2 million barrels per day (about 15% of U.S. levels) and gas by approximately 16%, causing a short-term spike in prices.
- Oil Prices: Brent remains around $65 per barrel amid cautious OPEC+ policies—the alliance signals the intention to maintain current production restrictions.
- Geopolitics: Escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran raises supply disruption risks, while peace negotiations regarding Ukraine are ongoing, instilling hopes for easing sanctions.
- Gas Market: Harsh winter conditions are depleting European storage to minimal levels in recent years (<50%), prompting prices to rise to around $500 per thousand cubic meters.
- Energy System: Record shares of renewable energy in Europe coincide with peak network loads; several countries are forced to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to prevent blackouts.
- Venezuela: Following a governmental shift, the U.S. is easing oil sanctions, paving the way for increased export of heavy Venezuelan oil and the country’s return to the global market.
Oil: Storm Effects and Price Stability
Extreme Cold in the U.S. A powerful winter storm affecting oil-producing regions in the U.S. led to well freeze-offs and a temporary reduction in oil output by about 2 million barrels per day. The Permian Basin was particularly hard-hit. However, within a few days, production began to recover as temperatures rose. Despite a short-term spike in prices during the storm, the situation stabilized, with benchmark Brent trading around $65 per barrel and U.S. WTI at approximately $60.
The Role of OPEC+ and Market Balance. A key factor in price stability remains OPEC+ policy. The exporters' alliance maintained current production quotas at its January meeting, signaling its intention to prevent oversupply. In 2025, OPEC+ countries increased output, regaining lost market shares, resulting in a supply surplus of around 2-2.5 million barrels/day. Now, the cartel is being more cautious: amid slowing demand (especially in China) and threats of overproduction, leading exporters are prepared to reduce output again if necessary to prevent price drops. Analysts forecast that in the first half of 2026, oil will trade in the $60-65 range, with the annual average price for Brent expected to be around $55-60 per barrel.
Recovery and New Players. Overall, the oil market shows resilience to short-term disruptions. The rapid return of U.S. production and stable operations from other major producers (Middle East, Latin America) mitigate local disruptions. Additional supply is also beginning to flow from Venezuela following the easing of sanctions (more on this below), which could potentially adjust the market balance in the future. However, geopolitical risks remain the primary factor of uncertainty for prices.
Geopolitical Risks: Iran, Sanctions, and Negotiations
Escalation in the Middle East. The international situation continues to affect energy markets. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has intensified: Washington responded strongly to Tehran's nuclear ambitions and repression of internal protests by deploying an aircraft carrier strike group to Iranian shores. President Donald Trump threatened Tehran with "serious measures," demanding a revision of its policies. In response, Iran declared it would view any attacks as a declaration of total war. Such rhetoric heightens trader nervousness and adds a geopolitical premium to oil prices from fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Western Sanctions Policy. Simultaneously, Western sanctions against Russia remain in effect, although cautious optimism is growing in diplomatic circles. The European Union is preparing to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45 per barrel from February 1, 2026 (down from the current $60), intensifying pressure on Russian exports. In response, Moscow has renewed its embargo on oil supplies to countries supporting the price cap until June 30, 2026. Nevertheless, Russian oil and petroleum product exports remain relatively high due to rerouting flows to Asia, where China, India, and other countries purchase raw materials at a discount. Moreover, the U.S. Treasury Department has extended the license that allows operations with certain foreign assets of one of the major Russian oil companies, effectively easing some sanctions.
Negotiations and Hopes for De-escalation. Amid the confrontation, a glimmer of hope comes from negotiations among Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine. The dialogue continued into January, and experts do not rule out the possibility of a gradual easing of sanction pressure if progress is achieved in resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Any warming of relations could significantly alter the configuration of global energy flows. Investors are closely monitoring political signals: developments surrounding Iran, Venezuela (easing sanctions), or the success of peace initiatives could notably impact sentiment and redistribute risks in the raw materials market.
Natural Gas: Frosts and Price Surge
Cold Winter and Decline in Production. The natural gas market is facing a real stress test due to abnormal cold. In the U.S., the winter storm caused widespread freezing of gas wells, resulting in temporary stoppages of up to 16% of gas production. Daily output during the peak of the storm dropped from 110 billion to around 97 billion cubic feet (from 3.1 to 2.7 billion cubic meters). This immediately reflected in pricing: Henry Hub gas futures more than doubled, surpassing $6 per million British thermal units (approximately $210 per thousand cubic meters). As the cold eased, supply gradually rebounded, and prices dropped below peaks, although volatility remains elevated.
Europe on the Verge of Deficit. In Europe, the prolonged cold snap caused a sharp rise in gas demand for heating and electricity generation. By the end of January, storage levels in the EU's underground facilities fell below 50% of total capacity—this is a minimal level for this time of year in the last few years. Spot prices at the TTF hub rose above $14 per MMBtu (around $500 per thousand cubic meters), although still significantly lower than the record peaks of 2022. The situation was exacerbated by supply issues: U.S. LNG exports dropped nearly 50% due to disruptions at several terminals during the storm, temporarily reducing tanker arrivals in Europe. Some LNG shipments were promptly redirected away from the EU to the domestic U.S. market, where prices were even higher—this market reshuffling increased tension in the global gas market.
Diversification and Outlook. To get through the heating season, European countries are resorting to all alternative gas sources. LNG imports remain at record levels: approximately 109 million tons of liquefied gas were imported into the EU in 2025 (+28% year-on-year), with about 9.5 million tons expected in January 2026 (+18% year-on-year) to meet winter demand. Norway, Algeria, and other traditional suppliers are ramping up pipeline exports, although fully compensating for lost Russian volumes (since January, pipeline gas from Russia has virtually ceased) is challenging. In Eastern Europe, logistics are being reshaped: Ukraine, having lost transit and facing declining production, increased imports from the EU by about 20% (to ~30 million m³ per day) through Slovakia and Poland. Turkey and Balkan countries are negotiating additional volumes of Azerbaijani gas and increasing LNG imports from the U.S. Meanwhile, Russia is accelerating the rerouting of its exports eastward: in 2025, 38.8 billion m³ of gas were supplied to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, which for the first time exceeded Gazprom's total exports to Europe and Turkey. In the coming weeks, the situation in the EU gas market will depend on the weather: if February turns out to be milder, prices will gradually decrease; however, if a new cold front emerges, the region will once again face a deficit. By spring, European countries will have to aggressively replenish depleted reserves, competing with Asian importers in the LNG market.
Electricity and Coal: Strain on the Grid
Peak Loads in Winter. Winter frosts are putting energy systems in northern latitudes to the test. A record demand for electricity was recorded in the U.S. in January: the operator of the largest eastern grid (PJM) declared a state of emergency when daily peak consumption exceeded 140 GW, threatening to overload infrastructure. To prevent blackouts, authorities had to resort to emergency measures—activating backup diesel generators and oil-fired power plants. These steps prevented a blackout but resulted in increased burning of oil and coal due to gas shortages and a drop in renewable energy output during extreme cold.
The Return of Coal and Network Limitations. A similar situation is unfolding in Europe: strong demand has prompted some countries to temporarily recommission dormant coal-fired power plants to cover peak loads. Although by the end of 2025 coal's share in EU electricity generation fell to a record low of 9%, its use has increased locally this winter. At the same time, infrastructure bottlenecks have become apparent: insufficient transmission capacity has led to operators having to limit the output of "green" energy during periods of peak wind generation to avoid accidents. This resulted in missed cheap electricity on windy days and higher prices during calm periods. Experts note that to enhance energy system resilience, accelerated modernization of the grid and development of energy storage systems is necessary; otherwise, even with an increasing share of renewables, dependence on hydrocarbon sources in extreme situations will remain high.
Global Trends in Coal Generation. Despite the climate agenda, coal still maintains its role worldwide. In Asia, particularly in China and India, coal consumption remains high to sustain industry and electricity generation. However, a symbolic outcome of 2025 was the simultaneous reduction in generation at coal plants in these two largest countries for the first time since the 1970s. In China, coal-fired power generation decreased approximately 1.6% year-on-year, in India by 3%, mainly due to the record addition of solar and wind capacities that covered demand growth. While this slight decrease signals the start of structural changes, the coal share in power generation is gradually decreasing, which is crucial for curtailing greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, in the short term, coal will continue to support energy systems during peaks and crises until renewables and storage solutions can fully take on this role.
Growth of Renewable Energy and Energy Transition
Record Levels of Renewable Energy. The transition to clean energy is gaining momentum worldwide. In 2025, many countries achieved historical peak capacity additions for renewable generation. The European Union added approximately 85-90 GW of new solar and wind power stations in total, allowing for the first time to produce more electricity from sun and wind (around 30% of the total EU generation) than from all fossil fuels combined (around 29%). Overall, the share of low-carbon sources (renewables plus nuclear energy) exceeded 70% in the EU’s power generation structure. China also shows impressive growth: over the year, more than 300 GW of solar panels and about 100 GW of wind farms were added, allowing the country to slightly reduce coal generation and slow the growth of emissions, even with rising electricity consumption. The renewable energy market is also rapidly expanding in India, the U.S., and the Middle East.
Growth Challenges and Compromises. The rapid growth of renewable energy presents new challenges. The main one is ensuring supply reliability amid a high share of intermittent sources. The current winter has shown that without sufficient backup capacity and energy storage, even developed "green" energy systems are vulnerable to weather anomalies. Governments in several countries are already taking steps: large-scale projects to build battery farms and implement energy storage technologies (including hydrogen) are being initiated to smooth peak loads. Simultaneously, some states are reevaluating their approaches: in Germany, a new coalition announced the possibility of restarting nuclear reactors, recognizing the previous shift away from nuclear generation as a mistake. Faced with rising electricity prices in 2025, Berlin and Prague achieved temporary easing of certain EU climate standards to prevent an energy crisis.
Investment and International Cooperation. Despite the challenges, the global energy transition is set to continue. In 2026, further growth in investments in solar and wind projects, as well as grid modernization, is expected. Many countries are signing new cooperation agreements in clean energy and trade in energy resources. The EU and the U.S. signed an agreement at the end of 2025 to increase the supply of American energy resources to Europe, which should help the EU meet its needs amid reduced imports from Russia. Such agreements spark discussions about the balance between climate goals and energy security; however, in the long term, the decarbonization trajectory remains unchanged—it simply requires a more flexible and measured approach to implementation.
Oil Products and Refineries: Fuel Market Under Pressure
High Prices Amid Oversupply of Raw Materials. The global oil products market entered 2026 amid contradictory trends. On one hand, there is a general oversupply of crude oil globally, which should contribute to lower prices for gasoline, diesel, and other fuels. On the other hand, several countries are facing local fuel deficits and rising prices due to logistics disruptions and low inventories. In the U.S., wholesale gasoline prices decreased from the peaks of last fall but remain above average levels, as refiners initially reduced their runs due to oil oversaturation, then were forced to sharply increase fuel production in response to a demand surge during the cold. In Europe, gasoline and diesel inventories are also insufficient—the harsh winter is draining oil product storage, sustaining high fuel prices in several EU countries.
Government Measures and Redistribution of Flows. To stabilize the fuel market, governments resort to manual management and promote the redistribution of supplies. In Russia, after record price increases for gasoline in 2025, a temporary ban on the export of major oil products was introduced; this restriction has now been extended until the end of February 2026, and discussions are ongoing about the introduction of permanent export quotas to prevent domestic shortages. Concurrently, Russian refineries are gradually reshaping their logistics—boosting fuel supplies to friendly countries in Asia and Africa to compensate for the drop in exports to Europe. In the European Union, on the contrary, some refineries are pivoting to producing and exporting additional fuel volumes to third countries to curb internal price growth and capitalize on high demand beyond the EU. Hot demand for diesel and heating oil in South Asia and Latin America supports refining margins, prompting global producers to boost output whenever possible. Infrastructure is also adapting: new storage tank capacities are being built in key ports, and traders are actively chartering tankers as floating storage, waiting for favorable conditions for sales.
Impact of Energy Transition. In the long term, the development of electric vehicles and the tightening of environmental standards will reduce the growth of gasoline and diesel consumption, but in the next year or two, demand for oil products will remain high, especially in developing economies. Energy companies are trying to strike a balance: investing in modernizing refineries for more efficient processing (e.g., eco-friendly jet fuel production units) while maintaining a focus on core fuel grades that bring in the majority of profits. Thus, the oil products market is under dual pressure—the need to ensure stable supplies while simultaneously preparing for the structural reduction of fossil fuels' role in the transport sector.
Venezuela: Return to the Oil Market
Easing Sanctions and New Opportunities. One of the most significant events at the beginning of 2026 is Venezuela's partial restoration of its presence in the global oil market. Following political changes in Caracas, Washington announced its readiness to lift several sanctions imposed since 2019, aiming to increase global oil supply and lower prices. A general license from the U.S. is expected soon, allowing foreign companies to expand operations in Venezuela's oil and gas sector. Among the potential beneficiaries are partners of the state-owned PDVSA, such as Chevron, Repsol, Eni, and India's Reliance, all of whom have announced plans to increase the extraction and export of Venezuelan oil.
Production Growth and Initial Deals. Experts forecast rapid growth in exports from Venezuela throughout the year. If at the end of 2025 shipments had dropped to ~500 thousand barrels per day due to sanctions (down from nearly 1 million barrels/day a year earlier), by the second half of 2026, the country might again exceed the 1 million barrels/day mark. The U.S., seeking to replenish its strategic reserves with cheap heavy oil, was the first to strike a deal with Caracas for $2 billion—these funds will be used to restore Venezuela's oil industry. Already in January, several tankers carrying Venezuelan oil arrived at U.S. ports under special permits, helping to unload PDVSA's storage. Refineries on the Gulf Coast, historically geared towards processing Venezuelan heavy oil, are preparing to increase capacity by replacing it with expensive blends from other sources.
Consequences for the OPEC+ Market. Venezuela's return alters the balance of power within OPEC+. Although the country will require time and investment to significantly increase output (infrastructure has deteriorated over years of sanctions), any additional volumes will pressure prices. Saudi Arabia and its allies will be closely monitoring the situation: if Venezuelan oil begins to significantly increase its market presence, OPEC+ may adjust its production policies to prevent another surplus. Nevertheless, at this stage, allies welcome Caracas's return as a way to mitigate potential deficits in certain segments (such as heavy oil for refineries) and as part of broader normalization of global energy cooperation.
Market Expectations and Conclusions
Despite a series of disruptions this winter, the global energy market enters February 2026 without panic. Short-term factors—extreme weather and geopolitics—support price volatility in oil and gas; however, the systemic balance of demand and supply remains generally stable. OPEC+ continues to play a stabilizing role, preventing the oil market from deficits, while operational supply reroutes and increased production (as in the cases of the U.S. and others) compensate for localized disruptions. Unless new emergencies occur, oil prices are likely to remain near current levels until the next OPEC+ meeting, when the alliance may revise quotas based on the situation.
For the gas market, the coming weeks will be decisive: mild weather in the latter half of winter will allow prices to fall and initiate the replenishment of reserves, while a new cold front threatens another price surge and difficulties for Europe. In spring, EU countries will face a major campaign to inject gas into underground storage ahead of the next heating season—competition with Asia for LNG promises to be fierce, sustaining a high pricing environment.
In the strategic outlook, this winter’s events have reminded us of the critical importance of reliable conventional capacities even amid an accelerated energy transition. Governments and companies worldwide in 2026 will be seeking a balance between investments in renewables and ensuring energy security. The new conditions demand flexibility: simultaneously ramping up "green" generation and modernizing grids while maintaining sufficient backup capacity based on fossil fuels. Investment decisions will be made with an eye on the lessons of recent crises: the priority is the resilience of energy systems. Thus, the coming year promises to be a time of careful balancing of interests—between growth, ecology, and security—which will shape the direction of global fuel and energy complex development.
