Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Wednesday, December 31, 2025: China's PMI, U.S. Data, Trading Conditions on Global Exchanges, and Investor Benchmarks amid Pre-New Year Calm.
Wednesday, December 31, is a day of reduced liquidity in global markets: some exchanges are closed for the holidays, while others operate on a shortened schedule. For investors from the CIS, this means a shift in focus from intraday trading to risk management and assessment of macroeconomic signals at the start of the new year. On such a day, even standard economic events can trigger disproportionate movements in specific instruments due to the thin market and wider spreads. The main agenda includes China's PMI and U.S. data, as well as trading conditions in Russian markets, where the Moscow Exchange is closed, but trading continues at the SPB Exchange.
Trading Conditions: Global Markets and CIS Exchanges
- Europe: some continental exchanges are closed; a number of markets may have a shortened trading day. For Euronext, December 31 is designated as a half trading day for several markets in the group.
- Asia: a significant portion of regional markets is entering holiday mode; liquidity is generally below the average values for the end of the month.
- Russia: the Moscow Exchange does not conduct trading on December 31. For CIS investors, who need to maintain access to trading operations, the key exchange remains SPB Exchange, where trading continues.
- U.S.: the stock market operates normally, while the bond market closes earlier than usual.
The practical takeaway for investors: as European and U.S. sessions approach their close, volatility may "jump" on specific news, but confirming the sustainability of movements will be difficult due to low volumes. It is advisable to prioritize discipline around limits, choose instruments with high liquidity, and confirm clearing and settlement schedules with brokers.
China: Services PMI and Composite PMI (04:30 MSK)
Early in the morning, China's services PMI and composite PMI for December will be released. For global markets, this serves as a quick indicator of whether the momentum of domestic demand is being maintained and how robust the recovery in the services sector is. For commodity assets and currencies of emerging markets, the significance of China's PMI is traditionally high: strong values support expectations for demand for industrial metals and energy resources, while weak values increase caution and raise the risk premium.
- How to read the release: a level above 50 usually indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction in activity.
- What to watch for: components of new orders, employment, and prices (inflation signals in supply chains).
- Market reaction: in a thin liquidity environment, sharp movements in commodity futures and currency pairs are likely, but confirmation of the trend may only come after the U.S. market opens.
U.S.: Unemployment Claims (16:30 MSK)
During the day, the focus will shift to U.S. data—initial claims for unemployment benefits. This indicator is important as a timely measure of labor market conditions and the overall health of the economy. For investors, it is part of a larger puzzle: the labor market influences consumption trajectories, corporate profits, and rate expectations.
- Positive scenario: a moderate level of claims without sharp spikes indicates employment resilience.
- Negative scenario: a noticeable increase in claims may heighten defensive sentiment and demand for quality (short-term bonds, dollar instruments, low-volatility sectors).
- Tactics: in the pre-New Year session, reactions may be disproportionate; when trading through the SPB Exchange, it is prudent to predefine entry/exit levels and use limit orders.
U.S.: Chicago PMI (Expected 17:45 MSK)
Another U.S. indicator to be released is the Chicago PMI for December. This helps assess the state of manufacturing activity and business expectations in the industrial region. Combined with unemployment claims, this indicator forms a "quick" macro-set that market participants use to fine-tune expectations heading into January.
- Volatility factor: if the release occurs in a thin market, movements in index futures and the dollar may be sharp but short-lived.
- Interpretation: a rise in the index strengthens arguments for sustained business activity; a weak value increases the risk of "soft cooling."
Corporate Reports: Global Agenda for December 31
From the perspective of corporate reports, the day is typically "empty" for major issuers: companies from the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and the largest Russian public companies do not concentrate releases on December 31. Major financial results announcements are generally concentrated in the working weeks of January-February, when the market returns to normal liquidity.
However, in the U.S., reports from individual small-cap issuers are scheduled. While they are not systemically significant for the broader market, they may represent specific interest for risk-oriented strategies:
- Coffee Holding (JVA): attention to margin dynamics amid commodity prices, working capital, and inventory levels.
- Maison Solutions (MSS): comparable sales, cost inflation, and network efficiency (operating margin) are of interest.
- 1933 Industries (TGIFF/TGIF): key items include cash flow, debt load, and revenue stability in the regulated sector.
- Formation Minerals (FOMI): for investors, important factors are asset structure, sources of financing, and any signs of achieving sustainable revenues.
- 4Less Group (FLES): microcap with heightened liquidity risks; priority is the assessment of corporate events and transparency of reporting.
For investors from the CIS, the practical recommendation is simple: consider such reports only with an understanding of the specifics of illiquid securities and with a predefined risk limit. The risk of "slippage" and price gaps is significantly higher in pre-New Year trading.
Assets and Themes of the Day: Currencies, Rates, Commodities
In the context of shortened trading on some exchanges, the market often shifts focus to "big" macro themes. Therefore, China's PMI and U.S. data set the tone for the dollar, yields, and commodity assets. For investor portfolios, three practical observations are important:
- Currencies: with surprises in U.S. data, the dollar may respond the quickest, especially against currencies with low liquidity during the holidays.
- Rates: the early close of the U.S. bond market amplifies the effect of thin liquidity—movements may be "jumps."
- Commodities: weaker-than-expected China's PMI often puts pressure on cyclical assets; stronger-than-expected supports risk appetite and demand for commodity stories.
Risk Management in Pre-New Year Trading
For both retail and professional investors, the key task on this day is to protect against inefficient execution and "random" volatility. In pre-New Year trading, it is rational to:
- use limit orders instead of market orders;
- reduce position sizes in instruments with weak depth of market;
- avoid "impulse" trades right after the release of data—wait for stabilization of quotes;
- consider clearance and settlement specifics, especially when trading through the SPB Exchange and in foreign instruments;
- maintain focus on portfolio goals: the end of the year is not the best time for aggressive risk increasing without a clear idea.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
December 31 is a day when global markets largely operate on a holiday schedule, which means the price of mistakes increases. Investors remain focused on economic events—China's PMI in the morning and the block of U.S. data in the afternoon. There are no significant releases expected from the largest companies in terms of corporate reports; activity is concentrated on individual small issuers in the U.S., where the risk of liquidity and volatility is above average.
The practical focus for CIS investors should be: (1) predefine reaction scenarios to macro data, (2) employ conservative execution and limit orders, (3) avoid overloading the portfolio with risk in a thin market, (4) prepare a watchlist for January when liquidity returns and a full new year agenda begins.
