Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Markets as of November 24, 2025: Global Events, Analysis, Refining, Gas, Power Generation, and Oil Products.
As the new week begins, global oil and gas markets are responding to key geopolitical signals and industry events. Amid diplomatic attempts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, oil prices have fallen to a monthly low, while significant shifts are occurring in the energy sector—from increased LNG exports to Europe to record refining profits and the compromised outcomes of the COP30 climate summit. Below is a review of the main news and trends in the fuel and energy complex as of November 24, 2025.
Global Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and New Sanctions
Oil prices are declining. Global oil prices ended last week at their lowest level in a month. Brent dropped to approximately $62.5 per barrel, while WTI declined to $58.1, reflecting a 3% decrease from the previous week. Prices were pressured by the U.S. initiative aimed at achieving a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine: investors are factoring in the possibility of an end to the protracted conflict and the easing of some sanctions, which could return additional volumes of Russian oil to the market. At the same time, risk appetite is being dampened by high interest rates in the U.S. and a strengthening dollar, making commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Sanctions and prospects for their lifting. New U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on Friday, November 21. These restrictions aim to further reduce Russia's oil export revenue. However, the U.S.-approved peace plan for Ukraine suggests that if agreements are implemented, these sanctions could be lifted. The market is already pricing in this possibility: the risk of disruptions in Russian supply has somewhat decreased, although experts warn that a real peace deal is far from guaranteed. Moscow and Kyiv are currently skeptical about the plan's conditions, and analysts note that a final agreement may take a long time to negotiate.
Supply and Demand Balance. Fundamental factors in the oil market are shifting towards a potential oversupply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its outlook in its latest report: it is expected that by 2026, the global oil market will transition to a slight surplus. OPEC+ plans to maintain a cautious approach—previously, the cartel signaled a pause in production increases in Q1 2026 to avoid an oversupply amid rising shipments from non-OPEC countries. Banking analysts, including Goldman Sachs, also forecast a moderate decline in oil prices over the next one to two years due to a pre-emptive increase in supply. An additional indicator of oversupply is the record volume of oil stored on tankers at sea: traders estimate that due to sanctions restrictions, a significant portion of Russian crude is accumulating in floating storage awaiting buyers. All these factors together keep oil prices under pressure.
U.S. Shale Production: Stress Test at $60
Low oil prices are beginning to impact the U.S. shale sector. In the largest U.S. oil basin—Permian (Texas and New Mexico)—there is a noticeable reduction in drilling activity. Companies are shutting in drilling rigs, and a wave of layoffs has hit the industry: the cost of shale oil for some independent producers is approaching current market prices near $60 per barrel, undermining the profitability of new wells. Reports from the region indicate that dozens of drilling rigs have been stopped in recent weeks, and some oil service companies are streamlining their staff.
However, experts note that the U.S. shale industry has already gone through similar down cycles and has shown resilience. Major players with stable financing are taking the opportunity to acquire assets: amid declining production, mergers and acquisitions have picked up. The sector was recently stirred by news of a major ExxonMobil deal to acquire a shale producer (strengthening the major's position in the Permian basin). Consolidation is expected to continue as smaller producers prefer to sell or merge rather than withstand price pressure. If prices remain relatively low, a slowdown in U.S. output could balance the market and lead to a new tightening of supply in the second half of 2026, which in turn would support prices.
Oil Products and Refining: Surge in Margins and Infrastructure Issues
Record profits for refiners. In contrast to crude oil, oil product markets are demonstrating increased tension. In November, refining margins for oil in many key markets reached multi-year highs. According to industry analysts, European refineries are earning around $30–34 per barrel of crude as net profit from fuel sales—levels not seen since 2023. A similar situation is observed in the U.S. (the 3-2-1 crack spread index is approaching record levels) and in Asia. Several factors have worked in favor of refiners:
- Reduced capacities: a series of planned and unplanned refinery shutdowns worldwide have led to a decrease in the supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Some plants in the U.S. and Europe have closed in recent years, while large new refineries (such as Dangote and Al-Zour) in Nigeria and the Middle East have temporarily reduced output due to repairs and commissioning.
- Drones and sanctions: drone strikes on oil refineries and pipelines in Russia during the conflict have reduced fuel exports from the country. Simultaneously, embargoes and tariffs on Russian oil products (imposed by Western countries) have limited the availability of diesel fuel in the global market, especially in Europe.
- High diesel demand: Europe is facing a structural diesel fuel shortage—economic growth and the cold season support demand, while local refining does not fully cover it. Imports from Asia, the Middle East, and the U.S. are not always sufficient to close the gap, driving diesel prices up.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that due to this margin rally, oil companies are revising their forecasts: despite gloomy expectations at the beginning of the year, Q3 2025 turned out to be extremely successful for the downstream segment. For example, French TotalEnergies reported a 76% year-on-year increase in profits from its refining business, thanks to favorable conditions. Experts believe that high margins will persist, at least until the end of the year, encouraging refineries to increase capacity utilization after completing autumn maintenance.
Pipeline incident in the U.S. Infrastructure issues are also impacting the oil products market. In November, a leak occurred in one of the largest product pipelines in the U.S.—the Olympic Pipeline system, which delivers gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from Washington state to neighboring Oregon. The leak was discovered on November 11 near Everett, WA, prompting the operator (BP) to suspend delivery. The state authorities declared a state of emergency as the pipeline's shutdown disrupted the supply of jet fuel to Seattle's international airport. By the end of the week, emergency teams had dug out over 30 meters of pipe in search of the damage, but the leak source was not immediately identified. One of the two lines of the pipeline has been partially restarted, but the system is not yet operating at full capacity. The incident highlights the vulnerability of fuel infrastructure: regional fuel supplies had to be replenished through truck transport and reserve deliveries, causing local prices for jet fuel and gasoline to spike temporarily. The pipeline is expected to return to full operation only after repairs and inspections.
Gas Market and Energy Security in Europe
The European gas market is entering the winter season relatively stable, but energy security remains a top concern. Thanks to active LNG procurement and consumption savings in recent months, gas storage facilities in EU countries are nearly filled to record levels as winter begins. This mitigates the risks of a sharp price spike in the event of cold weather. Meanwhile, European nations continue to diversify gas sources, reducing dependence on supplies from Russia:
- New LNG terminals in Germany: The largest economy in the EU is increasing its LNG reception capabilities. A fifth floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) is set to be launched in 2026 at the Elbe estuary (Stade port). So far, LNG has accounted for about 11% of all gas imports to Germany over the first three quarters of 2025. The construction of permanent terminals is proceeding at an accelerated pace—Berlin aims to fully replace the pipeline gas lost from Russia in 2022-2023.
- Balkan Gas Pipeline with U.S. Support: In Southeast Europe, the long-awaited project for an alternative gas pipeline is starting. Bosnia and Herzegovina has resumed plans to build a connecting pipe to Croatia—known as the "Southern Interconnector"—with U.S. assistance. Gas will flow from the Croatian LNG terminal on the island of Krk, allowing Bosnia to reduce its dependence on Russian gas currently supplied via the "Turkish Stream" branch. American partners have expressed their willingness to be the leading investors in the project. Previous implementation efforts were hindered by internal political disagreements in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but the project has now received renewed support and momentum.
- Ukraine Increases Imports: Facing escalation of the conflict with Russia, Ukraine has encountered severe challenges in the gas sector. Due to infrastructure shelling in recent months, the country has lost up to half of its gas production. To get through the winter, Kyiv is sharply increasing fuel purchases from neighboring countries. In November, the trans-Balkan supply route was reactivated—approximately 2.3 million cubic meters of gas per day started to flow from Greece (where there is an LNG terminal) via Romania and Bulgaria. Additionally, Ukraine is consistently receiving gas from Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. These efforts help offset the deficit caused by the attacks and support energy supply for Ukrainian consumers during the winter period.
Energy Security and Policy. Several European countries have heightened their focus on controlling critical energy infrastructure. For instance, the Italian government has expressed concerns about Chinese investors' participation in companies owning national electricity grids and gas pipelines. Officials state that strategic networks must remain under reliable domestic control—measures are under discussion to limit the share of foreign shareholders in such assets. This step aligns with the overall EU trend toward strengthening energy independence and protecting infrastructure from geopolitical risks.
Price Situation. Thanks to high reserves and diversification of sources, spot gas prices in Europe remain relatively moderate for this season. Regulators in various countries continue to protect consumers: in the UK, the price cap for households will increase slightly from December—by only 0.2%—reflecting the stability of wholesale prices. However, electricity and heating bills remain above pre-crisis levels, and governments are faced with the challenge of balancing market prices with support measures for the population.
Power Generation and Coal: Contradictory Trends
In global electricity generation, two opposing trends are evident: the growth of "green" energy sources and the simultaneous increased use of coal to meet demand. This has particularly manifested in China and several developing countries in Asia:
Record Electricity Generation in China. In the PRC, electricity demand is rapidly growing—October 2025 marked a historic high for generation in that month (over 800 billion kWh, +7.9% year-on-year). At the same time, generation from thermal power plants (primarily coal) increased by more than 7%, compensating for the seasonal decline in output from wind and solar stations. Despite efforts to develop renewables, about 70% of electricity in China is still generated from coal, so rising demand inevitably leads to increased coal consumption.
Coal Shortage and Rising Prices. Paradoxically, while coal use in China is hitting records, actual coal production in the country has slightly declined. This is due to Beijing's restrictions on mine operations (safety measures and efforts to combat excessive capacities). As a result, official data indicates that coal production in October was 2.3% lower than the previous year. The reduction in supply in the domestic market has led to rising prices: the benchmark price for thermal coal at China's largest port, Qinhuangdao, soared to 835 yuan per ton (approximately $117), which is 37% higher than the summer low. The deficit is also being supplemented through imports—China is increasing coal purchases from Indonesia and Australia, maintaining strong demand in the global market.
Global Coal Production Record. According to the IEA, global coal production is projected to reach a new record of approximately 9.2 billion tons in 2025. The main contributors to this increase are China and India, where economic growth still heavily relies on coal energy. International experts express concern: persistently high coal consumption complicates the achievement of climate goals. Nevertheless, in the short term, many countries are forced to balance environmental commitments with the need for reliable energy supply.
Energy Systems Under Attack from War. In Europe, targeted strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure remain a pressing issue. According to the operator "Ukrenergo," as of the morning of November 23, over 400,000 consumers remained without power, especially in eastern regions that have been subjected to nightly shelling. Repair crews are working around the clock to connect backup schemes and restore power lines; however, each new damage complicates the peak load response during the autumn-winter period. Ukraine’s electricity system is integrated with the European ENTSO-E, allowing for emergency electricity imports when shortages occur, but the situation remains extremely tense. International partners are providing equipment and funding to support Ukraine's power grid.
Renewable Energy: Projects and Achievements
The renewable energy sector continues to develop steadily worldwide, demonstrating new records and initiatives:
- Pakistan Shifts to Solar Energy. The country is preparing for a significant milestone: the government has announced that by 2026, electricity generation from rooftop solar panels will exceed daytime consumption in several major industrial areas. This will be the first such case in Pakistan's history. The active development of solar generation is part of a strategy to reduce dependence on expensive imported fuels. The installation of solar modules on factory and business rooftops is subsidized by the government and attracts foreign investors. Excess daytime generation is expected to be used to charge energy storage systems and fed into the grid, improving electricity supply during evening peak loads.
- New Offshore Wind Project in Europe. The consortium Ocean Winds (a joint venture of Portuguese EDP and French Engie) has won the rights to construct a large floating wind farm in the Celtic Sea (off the southwestern coast of the UK). The planned capacity is several hundred MW, which will provide green electricity to hundreds of thousands of households. The project highlighted the growing interest in floating turbines that can be deployed in deep waters, tapping into new areas. The UK and EU countries are actively holding auctions for offshore wind farms, aiming to meet their renewable energy targets.
- Investments in Grid Infrastructure. German company Siemens Energy has announced plans to invest €2.1 billion (approximately $2.3 billion) in the construction of facilities for electrical grid equipment by 2028. These projects will cover several countries and are aimed at eliminating "bottlenecks" in the electrical grid, which needs modernization to integrate renewable sources. Amid the ongoing crisis in its wind energy division, Siemens Energy is focusing on a more reliable business—energy transmission and distribution. Expansion of transformer, switching equipment, and power electronics manufacturing capacity is being supported by EU governments, as improving electrical grids is deemed critical for the success of the energy transition.
- Corporations Purchase Green Energy. The trend of entering into direct renewable energy supply agreements between energy companies and large businesses continues. For instance, French TotalEnergies has signed an agreement with Google to supply electricity from new solar and wind power plants to its data centers in Ohio, USA. The deal is long-term and will help the tech giant approach its goal of using 100% renewable energy, while also providing the energy company with a guaranteed market for its renewable project capacity. Such corporate PPA (power purchase agreements) are becoming a significant part of the market, stimulating the construction of new renewable energy facilities worldwide.
Corporate News and Investments in the Fuel and Energy Sector
Several significant events have occurred in the corporate segment of the fuel and energy complex, reflecting the restructuring of the industry to align with new realities:
- ExxonMobil Pauses Hydrogen Project. American oil and gas giant ExxonMobil has paused one of its most ambitious projects for producing "blue" hydrogen. The planned large hydrogen plant (presumably in Texas) is currently on hold due to insufficient demand from potential customers. According to Exxon CEO Darren Woods, clients are not ready to purchase large volumes of hydrogen at economically justified prices. This situation reflects a broader trend: the transition of traditional oil and gas companies to low-carbon technologies is proceeding more slowly than expected, as many such projects are currently not generating quick profits. Analysts note that ExxonMobil and other majors are reassessing their timelines for achieving emissions reduction targets, focusing more on profitable ventures—oil and gas production—amid the current price environment.
- Mining Giant Targets Copper. In the realm of raw material mega-deals, a new potential merger process is underway. Australian company BHP Group has made a renewed bid to acquire British Anglo American. Anglo recently agreed to merge with Canadian Teck Resources to concentrate jointly on copper mining—a metal critically needed during the energy transition (for electric vehicles, cables, and renewable energy). Now BHP, already a leader in copper production, aims to create an unprecedentedly large copper mining company capable of dominating the market. Anglo American's management has abstained from comments so far, and details of the discussions have not been disclosed. If the deal goes through, it will reshuffle power dynamics in the mining sector and give BHP control over strategic copper reserves in South Africa, South America, and other regions.
- U.S. Invests $100 Billion in Critical Resources. The American Export-Import Bank (US EXIM) has announced an unprecedented funding program aimed at ensuring sustainable supplies of critical raw materials for the U.S. and its allies. Up to $100 billion will be invested in projects related to the extraction and processing of rare earth metals, lithium, nickel, uranium, and the development of liquefied gas production facilities and components for nuclear energy. A first package of deals has already been formed, including a $4 billion insurance for U.S. LNG exports to Egypt and a $1.25 billion loan for the development of a major copper-gold deposit Reko Diq in Pakistan. The EXIM initiative aligns with the U.S. administration's policy of strengthening "energy dominance" and reducing dependence on China for supplying critical materials in high-tech and energy sectors. Given the funding approval by Congress, active U.S. involvement in raw material projects worldwide can be expected in the coming years.
- Nuclear Project in Hungary Receives Exemption. In the context of sanction policies, a notable announcement has emerged from Europe: the U.S. Treasury Department has issued a special license allowing certain companies to conduct transactions related to the construction of a new nuclear power plant, Paks II, in Hungary. This project is being realized with the participation of the Russian state corporation Rosatom, and previous sanctions had caused uncertainty in its financing. Now, an exemption has been made, likely at Budapest's request, to support the energy security of its NATO ally. The license pertains to transactions related to non-nuclear aspects of construction and demonstrates a pragmatic approach—while the sanctions regime remains strict, targeted relaxations are possible if they meet the interests of the energy stability of European partners.
COP30 Climate Summit: A Compromise Without Phasing Out Oil and Gas
The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) concluded in Belem, Brazil, with final agreements that reflect the complexities of international negotiations in the energy sector. The summit's outcome document was adopted with great difficulty and represents a compromise between a group of developed nations advocating for more decisive measures and a bloc of fuel-exporting states and developing economies:
Financial Support for Vulnerable Countries. A key achievement of COP30 was the commitment to triple the volume of climate financing for developing countries by 2035. Wealthy nations are ready to increase aid for projects aimed at climate adaptation—constructing protective infrastructure, transitioning to renewable energy, and combating desertification and flooding. This was a fundamental demand from Global South countries, which pointed out their disproportionate vulnerability to climate risks. Though the European Union criticized the initial draft of the agreement as "not ambitious enough," it ultimately did not block its adoption to initiate the mechanism for supporting the poorest nations. According to one of the EU negotiators, the agreement is "not perfect, but will direct much-needed funding to the most vulnerable."
Disagreement on Fossil Fuels. The most contentious issue in the negotiations was the fate of oil, gas, and coal. The preliminary draft of the decisions sought to include plans for "gradually phasing out fossil fuels"; however, such wording was absent in the final text. Countries within the so-called "Arab Group," as well as several other oil and gas producers, strongly opposed any mention of directly reducing fossil fuel use. They insisted that it is more important for them to discuss carbon capture technologies and "clean" uses of oil and gas than to contemplate curtailing production. As a result, the compromise solution presents the energy transition topic in broad terms, without quantitative commitments to reduce the share of oil and coal. This concession disappointed several Latin American countries (Colombia, Uruguay, and Panama openly called for stricter wording), but it was deemed necessary for consensus.
Reactions and Future Prospects. The compromise agreement from COP30 has received mixed evaluations. On the one hand, it preserved the multilateral climate process and ensured a flow of funds into adaptation and "green" technology projects. On the other hand, experts labeled the lack of specificity regarding the phase-out of hydrocarbons as a missed opportunity to accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who previously called for a "roadmap" for phasing out coal, oil, and gas, expressed cautious optimism, noting that dialogue continues and key decisions lie ahead. Meanwhile, the location for the next conference has been decided: COP31 will be held in 2026 in Turkey. Ankara has reached an agreement with Australia to co-host the summit on Turkish soil. The world will be closely watching to see if a bolder step towards decarbonizing the global economy can be made at the next meeting.
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