Current news in oil, gas, and energy as of December 11, 2025: EU's rejection of Russian energy resources, oil market balance, global LNG, Russia's export to Asia, renewable energy sources, and energy sector forecasts. An analytical review for investors and industry players.
The focus is on the decisive steps taken by the European Union to eliminate dependence on Russian energy resources, the shift in the US monetary policy, and their impact on global oil and gas prices, as well as the latest geopolitical events affecting the fuel and energy complex. This overview is intended for investors and participants in the energy sector, oil and gas, fuel, and energy companies, as well as anyone monitoring the dynamics of oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials markets.
Global oil market: prices and OPEC+
Global oil prices have stabilized after a recent increase: Brent crude is trading around $62 a barrel, while WTI is around $58. Strengthening prices last week were supported by expectations of declining interest rates in the US and concerns regarding supply constraints (sanction risks for exports from Russia and Venezuela). However, overall, oil prices have decreased by approximately 15% in 2025, as the market faces the threat of oversupply amid moderate demand growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintain a cautious stance. At its latest meeting, OPEC+ decided to keep current production quotas unchanged for at least the first quarter of 2026. The alliance continues to keep part of its capacity idle – a total of about 3.2 million barrels per day (around 3% of global demand) remains in reserve under the current production restriction agreements. With Brent prices around $60, OPEC+ representatives are focused on stabilizing the market rather than immediately increasing their share, considering the worsening outlook for supply and demand balance.
Key factors influencing the oil market currently:
- Monetary policy of major economies (the easing from the US Federal Reserve supports demand prospects).
- Geopolitical tensions (the war in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and Iran, the risk of conflicts – for example, around Venezuela).
- Actions by OPEC+ (maintaining production restrictions and readiness to respond to possible excess oil in the market).
- Rates of global economic growth and demand for raw materials (including recovering demand in China and accelerated transition to renewable energy sources).
Monetary policy and demand for energy resources
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is easing monetary policy this week: a reduction in the base rate by 0.25% is expected following the meeting on December 10. This marks the third rate cut in 2025 aimed at supporting the cooling economy and labor market. Lower rates and a potential weakening of the dollar usually stimulate economic growth and demand for energy resources – from gasoline to electricity – which positively impacts the oil and gas market. Industry investors are closely monitoring signals from regulators: the current cycle of monetary policy easing may end if inflation stabilizes; however, the very expectations of cheaper borrowing have contributed to the recent rise in oil prices.
Europe's rejection of Russian energy resources
The European Union is taking decisive steps towards complete energy independence from Russia. On December 10, ambassadors of EU countries approved a plan for a phased rejection of all types of Russian gas by the end of 2027. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen referred to the future embargo agreement as “the beginning of a new era” for Europe – an era in which European energy will permanently rid itself of dependence on Russian energy resources. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen added that a law banning any imports of Russian oil will be proposed at the beginning of 2026 to “turn off the tap” on supplies from Russia no later than 2027.
These measures continue the course taken by the EU following the events of 2022: over this period, Europe sharply reduced purchases of Russian pipeline gas (almost to zero) and imposed an embargo on oil imported by sea. New initiatives aim to solidify the break with Russia at the legislative level and stimulate the development of alternatives – from increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Qatar, and other countries to accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources. The Kremlin has reacted skeptically to the EU's strategy: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that abandoning relatively cheap Russian gas in favor of more expensive imports would doom the European economy to rising costs and decreased competitiveness in the long run.
Key elements of the EU's energy strategy:
- Complete rejection of Russian gas: ending purchases of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia by 2027.
- Embargo on oil and oil products: a legislative ban on importing Russian oil and oil products is planned for the same deadline.
- Diversification of supplies: expanding LNG imports from alternative suppliers, increasing domestic renewable energy generation, and energy conservation to replace Russian hydrocarbons.
Redirecting Russian supplies to Asia
Russia, facing a reduction of Western markets, is actively redirecting energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: as recently as late August, the first shipment of liquefied gas from the “Arctic LNG-2” project by Novatek was sent to China, despite the fact that the terminal is under US sanctions. According to traders, supplies of Russian LNG to China increased significantly in the autumn – Beijing is eager to boost purchases of energy resources at discounts of 30-40%, ignoring unilateral Western sanctions. Energy cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, supporting the economies of both countries: Russia gains an alternative market for its products while China secures cheap fuel for its needs.
India also remains one of the largest buyers of Russian oil. Following the EU embargo, Indian refineries increased purchases of Russian Urals crude oil and other grades at significant discounts to global prices. In recent negotiations, Russian leadership confirmed its readiness to provide India with stable supplies of oil and petroleum products. Although New Delhi remains cautious, balancing geopolitical risks, affordable Russian energy resources help meet growing demand and restrain internal fuel prices.
At the same time, Moscow is seeking opportunities to expand its export infrastructure to the East. Discussions are underway to increase the capacity of pipelines to China (the “Power of Siberia-2” project) and to enhance the domestic tanker fleet for delivering oil to Asian markets, circumventing restrictions. These steps are aimed at solidifying the long-term shift of Russian energy flows from the West to the East.
Key steps by Russia in Eastern markets:
- The launch of LNG supplies to China from the new “Arctic LNG-2” project, despite sanctions restrictions.
- Increase in oil exports to India on favorable terms (discounts to global prices) and confirmation of readiness to supply fuel to the Indian market.
- Infrastructure development: plans for new pipelines (“Power of Siberia-2”) and expanding the tanker fleet for uninterrupted exports to Asia.
Kazakhstan and transit risks
Instability related to the military conflict in Ukraine is creating new risks for the transit of energy resources in Eurasia. In early December, an attack by Ukrainian drones on the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk forced Kazakhstan to reconsider its oil export routes. The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan announced that some crude oil from the Kashagan field would be redirected via an alternative route to China. Previously, Kazakhstan exported the majority of its oil through the CPC pipeline, which transports crude to the Black Sea terminal in Russia. The CPC facilitates oil transportation from key Kazakh fields (Tengiz, Kashagan, Karachaganak) and remains the main export channel for the country.
Although the damage from the drone strike did not lead to a complete halt of shipments, the incident demonstrated the vulnerability of this international infrastructure. The Kremlin described the attack on the CPC terminal as a shocking incident, emphasizing the strategic importance of the consortium. Kazakhstan, for its part, has begun to diversify its routes: alongside the Chinese direction, it is considering increasing shipments via Caspian ports and other alternate paths. In the long term, Astana aims to strengthen energy security through increased processing: plans have been announced to construct a new major refinery with the participation of foreign investors, which will enhance domestic capacities and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products. Experts note that transit risks through Russia are increasing—such incidents can impact the global oil market, reminding participants of the geopolitical risk premium in prices.
Global gas and LNG market
The natural gas market is experiencing a relatively stable situation compared to the frenzy of two years ago. In Europe, despite the approaching winter, the pricing environment is calmer than in previous years: gas reserves in underground storage are at comfortable levels, and spot prices are far from the record highs of 2022. The reduction in supplies from Russia is being compensated by LNG imports – European terminals are actively receiving gas from the US, Qatar, Norway, and other sources. According to analysts' estimates, from January to November 2025, supplies of Russian LNG to the EU have decreased by almost 7% year-on-year (to around 18 billion cubic meters), reflecting the EU's course toward a gradual rejection of even LNG from Russia.
The supply of LNG in the global market continues to grow. The US is bringing new export capacities online: the large Golden Pass terminal in the Gulf of Mexico (a joint project of QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil) is preparing to begin supplies, expanding America's gas export capabilities. Qatar, in conjunction with the expansion of the North Field project, will increase LNG production to 126 million tons per year by 2027, securing long-term contracts with European and Asian buyers. Meanwhile, Asian countries are responding flexibly to market conditions: for instance, Pakistan has arranged with Qatar to redirect LNG shipments intended for it to other markets due to temporary oversupply of gas and weak internal demand. Against the backdrop of the launch of new capacities and moderate demand, spot gas prices remain relatively low, though weather factors and potential supply disruptions can still trigger short-term price spikes.
Renewable energy sources and the climate
The development of renewable energy is gaining momentum, although the climate agenda is facing opposition from the oil and gas sector. During the November UN Climate Conference COP30 in Brazil, heated debates unfolded around the phase-out of fossil fuels. The final draft of the agreement did not satisfy the European Union – a straightforward roadmap for the gradual phasing out of oil, gas, and coal was removed from the text under pressure from a group of major hydrocarbon-exporting countries. As a result, the agreements reached are of a compromise nature: instead of clear commitments to scale back fossil fuel production, countries focused on increasing funding for climate adaptation and general objectives for emission reductions.
Meanwhile, the energy transition continues to be implemented in practice. The year 2025 has seen record levels of new solar and wind generation capacities added in many countries. Major economies – from China and India to the US and the EU – are investing in renewable energy, energy storage systems, and hydrogen technologies in an effort to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. Nevertheless, in the short term, traditional resources continue to play an important role: high gas prices have forced some regions to increase coal-burning for electricity generation in 2025, temporarily halting the decarbonization trend. Experts believe that as the share of renewable sources grows (supported by government initiatives), the demand for coal and other fossil resources will resume its decline, reinforcing the global course towards sustainable energy.
Forecasts: a look into early 2026
Energy sector participants are concluding 2025 with moderate optimism but without excessive illusions. Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices could be under pressure due to rising inventories: various forecasts indicate that Brent prices may drop to $55-60 per barrel unless new shocks occur. At the same time, geopolitical factors—from developments in Ukraine to sanction decisions and localized conflicts (including potential escalations in Venezuela or the Middle East)—could sharply influence the market conditions. In the gas market, the coming months will largely depend on the weather: with a mild winter and adequate reserves, gas prices will remain low, but unexpected cold spells or disruptions in supply chains could lead to price spikes.
For investors and industry companies, adapting to new conditions will be of particular importance. Diversifying sources of supply, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including in renewable energy) will become key elements of business resilience. The outgoing 2025 year has demonstrated the close interconnection of economics, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to strengthen: the global market will have to balance between oversupply and the risks of shortages, while the global community will seek to balance energy security and climate goals.
