Energy Sector Overview July 25, 2026

Oil and Gas and Energy News for July 25, 2026: Brent Above $100 per Barrel, TTF Gas at Highest Since January 2023, CTC Shipment Halt, OPEC+ Quotas, Russian Fuel Market, Coal, Electricity, and RES. Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants

The global fuel and energy complex is entering the weekend in a state of maximum tension not seen in the last four years. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which has spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, has pushed Brent crude prices above the psychological threshold of $100 per barrel for the first time since May, and European gas at the TTF hub has reached its highest levels since January 2023. Simultaneously, shipments of Kazakh oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have been suspended, while the Russian domestic market for oil products is just beginning to emerge from a severe phase of shortage. Below is a detailed overview of key events in the oil, gas, coal, and electricity sectors for investors and energy market participants.

Key Updates for Saturday Morning, July 25, 2026

• Oil: Brent closed Thursday at $100.69 per barrel (+7%), with WTI at $92.19 (+6.2%). On Friday, the market corrected approximately 5% — Brent traded around $95-96, WTI near $88.
• Monthly Dynamics: From $71.57 per barrel on July 1, Brent has gained over 30% — one of the sharpest monthly impulses since 2022.
• Gas: TTF futures rose above €63/MWh — a maximum since January 2023; a more than 45% increase since early July and nearly double year-on-year.
• Logistics: CTC halted shipments in Novorossiysk; Kazakhstan reduced production.
• Coal: Newcastle remains around $130 per ton amid substitution of lost LNG supplies.
• Electricity: IEA forecasts a 3.6% increase in global electricity demand in 2026.

Oil Market: Premium for Geopolitical Risk Returns to Quotes

The oil market has been reacting to military reports for the fifth consecutive week. The breakout above $100 for Brent occurred after reports of attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and statements about the US's readiness to launch a large-scale strike against Iran. This marked the culmination of a rally during which the commodity sector gained over 30% in three weeks.

Factors Driving Prices Up

1. Physical reduction of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally accounts for about one-fifth of global oil trade.
2. Threat of a blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait — an alternative route for Saudi exports bypassing Hormuz.
3. Suspension of Kazakh oil shipments in the Black Sea, removing more than 1% of global supply from the market.
4. Depleted commercial oil and petroleum product stocks in OECD countries following the spring phase of the conflict.
5. Increased freight and insurance costs, which are being passed on to end prices for refineries.

Factors Curbing Growth

• Diplomatic track: reports of Pakistan's attempts, supported by China, to renew US-Iran negotiations instantly removed about 5% of the premium from the market.
• China’s interest in de-escalation: disruptions in the Persian Gulf negatively impact the interests of the world’s largest oil importer.
• Available OPEC+ capacities and the ongoing recovery of quotas.

The range of forecasts is extraordinarily wide. RBC Capital Markets suggests that with further escalation, Brent could exceed the 2022 peak of $128 per barrel. UBS, on the other hand, expects a pullback to $85 by year-end, emphasizing that recovery in production in the Middle East is proceeding slower than market expectations, which will keep the oil market in a deficit.

OPEC+: Quotas Are Increasing, but Actual Barrels Are Coming In Slower

The alliance continues its phased recovery of production. The July quota for the "group of eight" was set at 30.633 million barrels per day, which represents an increase of more than 1 million barrels per day from June; the monthly easing step remains at 188,000 barrels per day. The overall policy of the alliance has been confirmed until December 31, 2026, with a maximum allowable production level set at 39.725 million barrels per day. Simultaneously, there is an ongoing assessment of the maximum production capacities of participants — this will form the basis for the base quotas in 2027.

The key issue for OPEC+ today is not paper quotas but logistics: a significant part of the free capacities is located in the Persian Gulf countries and is physically reliant on the very Strait of Hormuz, whose associated risks are driving prices up. The UAE's exit from the alliance on May 1, 2026, has further reduced the managed pool of supply.

Gas Market: TTF at All-Time Highs, Europe Risks Not Filling UGS

The European gas market has become the second epicenter of the crisis. TTF quotes have risen more than 45% since early July, surpassing €63/MWh. The reasons are structural:

• Reduction of Qatari LNG supplies and export restrictions from the Persian Gulf;
• Redirection of US LNG cargoes to Asian markets with higher prices;
• Abnormal heat in Europe, increasing electricity demand for air conditioning and, therefore, gas in generation;
• Rising freight and insurance rates on routes through conflict zones.

Europe's largest gas supplier, Equinor, has warned that the region is highly unlikely to reach its target underground gas storage filling level of 80% by the start of the heating season. The slow pace of injection against the five-year norm makes the winter of 2026-2027 a major risk for European industry. An additional dimension of the problem is inflationary: against the backdrop of the energy shock, the ECB, on July 23, kept the deposit rate at 2.25%, although many economists expect another hike by the end of the year.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium: A Blow to Kazakhstan's Exports

On July 19, CTC halted oil loading at its marine terminal near Novorossiysk after drone attacks on two tankers. As of July 21, Kazakhstan has stopped pumping crude into the consortium's system: shipowners are refusing to direct vessels to the terminal. CTC accounts for about 80-90% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and over 1% of global oil supply; approximately 63 million tons of crude passed through the system in 2025.

On July 23, the Kazakh Ministry of Energy confirmed the forced reduction of daily production to prevent overflowing tank farms. Some volumes are being redirected through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline; however, its capacity cannot fully compensate for the lost exports. For European refiners geared towards CPC Blend, this means an urgent need to seek replacement batches of light low-sulfur oil.

Russia: Fuel Market Gradually Emerges from Acute Phase

The Russian domestic oil products market is experiencing the most challenging summer in years. The gasoline and diesel shortage, observed since late May, was caused by a combination of factors: unplanned refinery shutdowns, seasonal peak demand during vacation periods and harvest season, as well as logistical constraints in southern regions.

The measures taken include:

• A complete ban on gasoline, diesel fuel, marine fuel, jet fuel, and gas oil exports;
• A reduction in the mandatory exchange sales of gasoline from 15% to 10% during the period from July 1 to September 30;
• Waiving import duties and increasing imports of oil products from Belarus;
• Maximal loading of existing capacities, shortening the duration of current repairs, and postponing planned ones;
• Engaging the potential of medium and small refineries.

On July 21, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the beginning of market stabilization, noting that in certain regions, the situation is being resolved "in a manual, pointwise mode." The priority is given to supplying agricultural producers during the harvest season and northern deliveries. The Antimonopoly Service has initiated 15 cases against market participants, while on July 23, the Ministry of Energy and oil companies were instructed to work on canceling regional limits on the sale of fuel volumes less than 50 liters — a signal that the authorities believe the peak of the crisis has passed.

Russian Oil Exports: Volatility of Discounts

The dynamics of the Russian export blend Urals in 2026 show an atypical amplitude. In April-May, at the peak of the Middle Eastern crisis, Urals in supplies to India and China was trading at a premium to Brent, reflecting a sharp shortage of sour grades. By June-July, quotes fell back to a discount in the range of $2-3 per barrel against the backdrop of reduced activity from Asian buyers and squeezed margins for independent Chinese refineries. The current rise in benchmark quotes is again improving export revenues, but the sanctions infrastructure — restrictions on freight, insurance, and payments — continues to keep realized prices below market indicators.

Coal Market: Comeback Amid LNG Shortage

Coal is making a return to the global energy agenda as a last-resort fuel. Australian thermal coal Newcastle is trading around $130 per ton. The shortfall of LNG supplies to Asia creates additional demand: industry analysts estimate that additional coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 could reach around 70 million tons, and with the resumption of full-scale hostilities, it could rise to 90 million tons.

Japan leads the growth in coal generation, where production at coal-fired power plants is increasing at double-digit rates while gas generation is declining. South Korea and Taiwan are also increasing coal capacity utilization. India, in contrast, is restraining imports due to rising domestic production and high stock levels, while China remains relatively insulated due to its low share of gas in the energy balance. Notably, the largest mining companies are hesitant to sanction new projects, viewing the uptick in demand as cyclical rather than structural.

Electricity and Renewables: A Record Year Amid Crisis

The paradox of 2026 is that the energy shock has not slowed down but accelerated the energy transition. According to a recent update from the International Energy Agency, global electricity demand is set to increase by 3.6% in 2026, followed by another 3.8% in 2027 — rising from 28,600 TWh in 2025 to 30,700 TWh by 2027. The drivers include industry, electric transport, air conditioning, and data centers.

Key points from the generation forecast are:

1. Renewable generation in 2026 will surpass coal generation globally for the first time in history.
2. Renewables output will increase by more than 8%, with its share in global generation rising from 33% in 2025 to 37% by 2027.
3. Solar generation will add around 600 TWh and surpass wind generation, becoming the second source of renewables after hydropower.
4. Electricity demand in India will increase by 7%; the country has for the first time surpassed the threshold of 100 GW of variable renewable generation.

The investment landscape confirms this trend: total investment in global energy in 2026 is estimated at $3.4 trillion, of which around $2.2 trillion is directed towards low-carbon technologies and electricity grid infrastructure. Renewables account for approximately $665 billion, including $365 billion in solar energy — effectively $1 billion daily, $200 billion in wind energy, and $75 billion in hydropower. Investments in energy storage systems will exceed $100 billion for the first time, increasing by more than 35% year-on-year. The logic of investors is simple: own generation is a form of insurance against geopolitical shocks in hydrocarbon supply chains.

What This Means for Energy Market Participants

The market has entered a phase where pricing is determined not by supply and demand balance but by probabilistic assessments of military scenarios. Practical takeaways for investors, fuel and oil companies include:

• Hedging has become mandatory. An amplitude of movements of 5-7% per session makes unhedged positions in oil, gas, and oil products a source of unacceptable risk.
• Refining margins are under pressure from both sides. Rising raw material costs combined with administrative or competitive restrictions on sale prices are squeezing the crack spreads for refineries.
• Logistics are more important than geology. Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Novorossiysk have shown that the cost of a barrel today is determined by the passability of bottlenecks, not the volume of reserves underground.
• Coal and nuclear are receiving premiums for predictability. Assets with long contractual horizons and an internal resource base are being reassessed upwards.
• The winter risk in Europe is not alleviated. The delay in filling UGS creates potential for a new price spike in TTF in the fourth quarter.

Upcoming market indicators include the dynamics of the diplomatic track around Iran, the resumption of CTC shipments, the pace of gas injection into European storage facilities, and the next OPEC+ decision on quotas. Any of these events could shift prices by $5-10 per barrel within a single session. Investors and energy market participants should expect heightened volatility in the oil and gas and energy sectors to persist at least until the end of the third quarter of 2026.