Current News in the Fuel and Energy Sector as of February 16, 2026: Crude Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, LNG Market, Electricity Situation, Renewables, Coal, and Oil Products. Analysis for Investors and Global Energy Market Participants.
Oil: US-Iran Negotiations and OPEC+'s April Turnaround
As of February 16, 2026, Brent crude stands at approximately $67.72 per barrel, while WTI is around $62.86. Last week, Brent declined by about 0.5%, and WTI fell approximately 1% as the market reacted to signals regarding a potential US-Iran deal; however, the complete removal of risk premium was not achieved due to the risk of negotiation breakdowns and supply factors. Additionally, there is no WTI pricing today in the US due to a holiday, which decreases the informational value of daily movements on the American curve.
The medium-term focus is shifting towards OPEC+: sources indicate that several members are inclined to increase quotas beginning in April. A key meeting of the eight member countries is scheduled for March 1. As spring and summer approach, the significance of spreads (front-month vs. long-term contracts) and differentials among crude oil grades is expected to rise, particularly during periods of thin liquidity. Fundamental assessments are also diverging: the International Energy Agency's February report anticipates more moderate demand growth and noticeable stockpiling, which limits the potential for price increases without new supply disruptions.Sanctions and Logistics: The Cost of Maritime Services as a Market Factor
The EU has proposed a broader ban on services supporting Russian oil exports. If adopted, this package could replace the price cap regime and elevate the costs of insurance, freight, and compliance across the supply chain. As a result, the role of the "shadow" fleet is intensifying, and the premium for transparent logistics is increasing—particularly on routes from Russia to Asia and in the oil products segment, where traceability of raw materials has become a commercial requirement for access to the EU.
Regarding gas, the sanctions framework is becoming "long-term": the EU has approved a mandatory timetable to phase out Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by autumn 2027, with limited flexibility for deadline shifts amid difficulties in filling underground gas storage. This raises the value of long-term LNG contracts, regasification capacities, and portfolio flexibility for European buyers and suppliers.Gas: TTF for Europe, Henry Hub for the US, LNG for Asia
European gas prices (TTF) remain close to low €30/MWh levels (latest available values around €32/MWh). The market is preemptively assessing the challenges of the injection season amid a structural shift away from Russian volumes: news regarding the LNG fleet, routes, and regulations quickly translates into premiums for hubs and increased costs for "flexibility."
In the US, Henry Hub has returned to a range of around $3–3.5/MMBtu for near-term futures after January's extremes, but the EIA's outlook still anticipates a higher average price in 2026 (approximately $4.3/MMBtu). In Asia, the LNG price benchmark (JKM) for spring contracts is hovering around $10–11/MMBtu: the market is anticipating a wave of new capacity entry in 2026 and a recovery in Chinese imports, although not necessarily back to the 2024 levels.
Electricity and Networks: EU Industry Pressures Regulators
In the EU, leaders from Central European countries are advocating for lower electricity prices as a condition for industrial competitiveness, emphasizing the impact of expensive gas and carbon regulatory costs from the ETS. Concurrently, options for adjusting the free quota system and ETS2 trajectory are being discussed, which are vital for electricity, metals, and chemicals markets.
Grid constraints are becoming a critical "bottleneck" in the energy transition. France is promoting the idea of a unified energy market and integrated European networks, while regulators in the UK and France have paused the approval of a new interconnector, citing disputes over cost and revenue sharing. From an investment perspective, this indicates that the share of systemic costs (grid, balancing, connection) in electricity bills is rising and may dominate over the pure wholesale price.
Renewables: Auctions Accelerate Deployment, While Supply Chains Become More Expensive
The UK's Contracts for Difference auction confirmed the scale of demand for renewables: projects totaling 6.2 GW were selected (of which 4.9 GW is solar generation), with the cumulative capacity of the round estimated at approximately 14.7 GW. The strike prices (in 2024 prices) are also significant: solar generation and onshore wind remain competitive compared to new gas plants at contracted prices.
In Northern Europe, there remains a focus on offshore wind and shared infrastructure. For investors in renewables, this shifts focus from "clean generation" to networks, storage, fleet service, and equipment—i.e., sectors where capacity shortages and delivery delays are most often manifest in capital investment cycles.
Coal: Structural Shift in Trade Amid Rising Domestic Production
Despite record global demand in 2025, coal imports into Asia have declined: the market is increasingly defined by China and India, which are boosting domestic production while simultaneously increasing the share of renewables in generation. China expects production to rise to 4.86 billion tons in 2026 (the slowest pace in a decade) and forecasts a decrease in imports amid supply risks from Indonesia. The price range for thermal coal in mid-February is holding at around $110–120/ton, supporting exporters' offers and maintaining coal's competitiveness against LNG in coastal regions of Asia.
Oil Products and Refineries: Incidents in Russia and Restructuring Diesel Flows
The market for oil products (diesel/gasoil, gasoline, and fuel oil) remains vulnerable to refinery incidents and sanction-related logistics. At the Volgograd Refinery, processing has stopped following drone attacks: damage to a key facility raises the risk of short-term premiums in regional supply chains. In Europe, sanctions are altering operational models: TotalEnergies has assumed full operational control of the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands, supplying raw materials and taking all output while retaining a stake for Russian shareholders in the capital.
After the EU's ban on fuel imports produced from Russian oil, diesel flows are being redistributed: Indian supplies are shifting to West Africa, while Europe is ramping up imports from the US and Middle Eastern countries. This makes oil products more sensitive to freight and compliance than to crude oil prices themselves, increasing the value of "flexible" refineries with access to different grades of raw material.
Forecast for Tuesday, February 17, 2026
- Oil: The main risk is news from Geneva (US-Iran) and expectations ahead of OPEC+ meetings on March 1, 2026; the baseline scenario is Brent trading in the high $60s while maintaining risk premium.
- Gas: For Europe—weather and the speed of transition to the injection season; for the US—temperature forecasts and expectations from EIA reports; for Asia—the JKM/TTF spread and LNG fleet availability.
- Electricity: Political signals regarding ETS and network investments in the EU, as well as regulations for interconnectors and tariffs in the UK.
Brief Analytical Section: Recommendations
- For Investors: Prefer businesses with diversified cash flows (integrated majors, gas/LNG portfolios, networks), as volatility in 2026 is often driven by logistics and regulation.
- For Traders: Focus on spreads and premiums (oil/oil products/freight), rather than solely on "direction"; that's where arbitrage forms amid sanctions.
- For Refineries: Insure product premiums in advance and ensure alternative logistics for raw materials and shipments—incidents tend to impact gasoline and diesel more than crude oil.
- For Renewables and Electricity: Assess projects considering network charges, connections, and balancing—as systemic costs become the subject of political pressure in the EU.
