Economic Events and Corporate Reports: Friday, July 31, 2026 — Bank of Japan Decision, Eurozone Inflation, Reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Norilsk Nickel
Friday, July 31, 2026, marks the conclusion of one of the most eventful weeks in the summer business calendar. Behind us is a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, the first estimate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter, and earnings reports from tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. The final act of the week is no less significant: investors are awaiting the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone for July, business activity indices from China, and quarterly reports from oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron. In the Russian market, the focus will be on Norilsk Nickel's half-year financial report prepared in accordance with IFRS. The final trading day of the month traditionally sees rebalancing of portfolios, increasing volatility in the global equity markets.
Key Events of the Day: A Brief Overview
- Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, updated forecast report, and press conference by Kazuo Ueda.
- Preliminary consumer inflation (CPI) estimate for the Eurozone for July.
- Official business activity indices (PMI) for China for July.
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2, Chicago PMI, and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the U.S.
- Q2 reports: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Linde, Colgate-Palmolive, Eaton, Sony Group, Moderna, and others.
- Publication of Norilsk Nickel's consolidated financial statements for the first half of 2026 in accordance with IFRS.
Bank of Japan: Rate, Forecasts and Yen at 40-Year Lows
The main macro event of Friday will be the outcomes of the two-day Bank of Japan meeting. The consensus predicts that the key rate will remain at 1% per annum, but the intrigue lies in the details: alongside the decision, the regulator will publish a quarterly forecast report, and Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference. The yen is hovering near 40-year lows — around 163-164 to the dollar, which increases pressure on the regulator and raises the risks of currency interventions. Any hint at an acceleration in the interest rate hike cycle could trigger a strengthening of the yen, unwinding of global carry trades, and a correction in the Nikkei 225 index, which is sensitive to currency factors due to the high share of exporters.
Eurozone Inflation: A Test for the ECB’s Course
At 12:00 PM MSK, Eurostat will present its preliminary estimate of consumer price growth for July. After a drop in annual inflation to 2.8% in June, economists expect a bounce back to around 2.9-3.0% due to rising energy prices following further escalations in the Middle East. Core inflation is expected to remain near 2.4%. This publication will be a key argument in discussions regarding a potential ECB rate hike at the meeting on September 10, with the market already pricing in a high probability of tightening. Stronger than expected data will support the euro but could put pressure on the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX indices.
U.S. Statistics: Labor Costs and Consumer Sentiment
The American calendar on Friday is noticeably lighter than in previous days, but it still holds significant releases:
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2 — an important indicator for the Fed regarding wage pressures on inflation.
- Chicago PMI for July — a leading signal ahead of the ISM release in early August.
- The final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, including households' inflation expectations.
Following the Fed's decision to hold rates steady and the release of PCE deflator data the day before, these reports will clarify the trajectory of monetary policy for the fall in an environment where inflation still exceeds the 2% target.
China: PMI Indices Set the Tone for Commodity Markets
Official business activity indices for July in China — for both the manufacturing and services sectors — will be released in the morning. Following a recent Politburo meeting that outlined measures to support domestic demand, investors will be looking for confirmation of stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy. The PMI data directly influences oil prices, industrial metals, and shares of commodity companies — from the mining sector in Europe to Russian exporters.
ExxonMobil and Chevron: Oil Giants' Day on Wall Street
Before the U.S. markets open, ExxonMobil and Chevron will present their quarterly results. ExxonMobil has already guided the market: Q2 profits could be about $5 billion higher than in Q1, thanks to a surge in oil prices (the average Brent price for the quarter was about $96.7 per barrel, up 23% from Q1) and a recovery in refining margins. Investors will assess the sustainability of the company’s $20 billion annual share buyback program and its dividend history, which boasts 43 years of continuous payout growth. For Chevron, the focus will be on the integration of Hess assets, production in Guyana, and the Permian Basin, as well as the ability to generate free cash flow amidst volatile commodity prices.
Other Reports in the U.S.: Pharma, Consumer Sector, and Industry
In addition to the oil majors, the following companies will report before the market opens:
- AbbVie — dynamics of sales in the immunology portfolio, Skyrizi and Rinvoq;
- Linde — an indicator of global industrial health through demand for technical gases;
- Colgate-Palmolive — pricing policy and organic growth in the consumer segment;
- Eaton — orders related to electrification and data center construction;
- Dominion Energy, Cameco, Cboe Global Markets, T. Rowe Price, Moderna, AutoNation — a wide cross-section of sectors from energy to finance.
Overall, the earnings season is shaping up strongly: according to FactSet, S&P 500 companies’ profits in Q2 have risen by nearly 25% year-on-year — the second consecutive quarter with growth above 20%.
Asia and Europe: Sony and the Peak Week Conclusion
In Asia, the key corporate publication will be the Sony Group report — investors will evaluate results from the gaming, music, and semiconductor segments, as well as the impact of a weak yen on the exporter’s revenue. In Europe, the peak of the reporting season came mid-week with updates from EssilorLuxottica, GSK, Rio Tinto, and other heavyweights; on Friday, the focus will shift to macroeconomic statistics and the final weekly performance of the Euro Stoxx 50 in light of the inflation report.
Russian Market: Norilsk Nickel and the Wave of Half-Year Reports
On the Moscow Exchange, Norilsk Nickel will release its consolidated financial report prepared in accordance with IFRS for the first half of 2026. The market will evaluate the influence of palladium, nickel, and copper prices, capital expenditure dynamics, and the company's debt burden — these factors will determine the prospects for a return to dividend payouts. Additionally, the end of the month traditionally brings a wave of half-year reports under RAS from a wide range of issuers on the MOEX index, while investors continue to digest the results from Sberbank, Yandex, VTB, and Ozon that were released in the last days of July.
What Investors Should Focus on July 31, 2026
The last trading day of July combines several risk factors and opportunities. The day's priorities appear as follows:
- Bank of Japan Rhetoric. Even with a stable rate, strong signals from Ueda could trigger a sharp yen appreciation and a global unwinding of carry trades — with consequences for emerging market currencies and risk assets.
- Eurozone Inflation. A bounce back above 3% will increase expectations for a September ECB rate hike and may put pressure on European stocks and bonds.
- ExxonMobil and Chevron Reports. Management comments on oil prices, drilling activity, and buybacks will set the tone for the entire energy sector, including Russian oil companies.
- Chinese PMI. Weak data will signal risk for commodity currencies, metals, and exporters; strong data will support global risk appetite.
- End-of-Month Effect. Rebalancing by major funds may amplify movements in both directions, so heightened volatility unrelated to fundamental news may occur in the last hour of trading.
The combination of central bank decisions, inflation statistics, and reports from commodity giants makes July 31 a day when risk management discipline is more crucial than chasing short-term yields. A measured approach, diversification across currencies and sectors, and attention to company forecasts for the second half of the year will help investors navigate the month’s close without unnecessary losses.
