Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, December 21, 2025: China's Decision on LPR Rate, Public Company Reports, Global Markets, and Investor Benchmarks.
On Sunday, global markets take a pause ahead of the upcoming holidays; however, investors will be focused on the important decision by the People's Bank of China regarding the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and a rare set of corporate reports, including results from Japanese retailer Shimamura and American company Ennis. While exchanges in the US, Europe, and Russia are closed, these events will shape the information backdrop for the start of the new week and provide signals about the state of the global economy and individual sectors.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 22:00 — China: Decision on the 5-year LPR rate (December), forecast 3.50%.
- 22:15 — China: Decision on the 1-year LPR rate, forecast 3.00%.
China: LPR Rate and Monetary Policy
The People's Bank of China will publish the December values for the base lending rates LPR. Analysts expect the 1-year LPR to remain at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, unchanged from last month. This signals the regulator's intent to maintain a neutral monetary policy at year-end without resorting to additional economic stimulation.
- Stability of Rates: The key 1-year LPR serves as a benchmark for business lending; keeping it at 3.0% signals an intention to maintain accessible financing conditions without further monetary easing. The 5-year LPR influences mortgage lending; its stability at 3.5% indicates that Beijing does not find it necessary to further support the real estate market before the New Year.
- Economic Context: China's economy in 2025 has faced risks of deflation and slowing domestic demand. Previously, authorities reduced bank reserve requirements and implemented measures to stimulate lending. Maintaining the LPR at this point may reflect initial signs of stabilization: inflation is near zero, but the decline in prices has halted, and the regulator is waiting to assess the impact of previous stimulus efforts.
- Market Impact: A predictable decision on rates will likely be perceived neutrally by investors. However, if the PBoC opts for an unexpected reduction in the LPR, this could weaken the yuan and trigger a boost in Asian stock indices, benefiting shares in banking and real estate sectors. Conversely, a rate hike is unlikely and would be a negative shock for global risk appetite.
Corporate Reports: Shimamura and Ennis
- Shimamura Co., Ltd. – a major clothing discount retailer in Japan. The company will report its results for the third quarter of the 2026 financial year. Previous results showed moderate sales growth alongside declining profitability, raising concerns among investors. The market is now focused on comparable sales and margins for the autumn season: strong figures will confirm sustained consumer demand, while weak results will amplify concerns about economic slowdown. It is particularly crucial to see if Shimamura maintained profitability amidst the weaker yen and rising costs.
- Ennis, Inc. – an American manufacturer of printed products and promotional apparel (NYSE: EBF). It is set to report for the third quarter of the 2026 financial year. No surprises are expected here; the demand for traditional business forms and checks in the US remains stable, growing slowly. Investors will be watching revenue and profit: even a small increase could support the stock price. Although the company's scale is modest (market cap ~$460 million), its results will provide a signal regarding sentiments in the B2B services segment of the American economy.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- USA (S&P 500): American exchanges are closed on weekends, and no new macro reports are scheduled for December 21. US stock indices finished last week with gains: the S&P 500 approached yearly highs, recovering from December's Fed rate cut and buoyed by hopes for a "Santa Claus rally." Overall sentiment is positive, as investors anticipate an easing of monetary policy in 2026 and a strong holiday sales season. In the absence of trading on Sunday, market participants in the US are using the pause to assess their positions ahead of a shortened pre-holiday week.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): There will also be no trading or significant statistical releases in Europe on December 21. Continental indices previously exhibited restrained dynamics: following the December ECB meeting, the market stabilized, and volatility has decreased ahead of the Christmas holidays. Investors are monitoring energy prices (which are relatively stable this winter) and preparing for the release of initial inflation and business activity data in January. Since Sunday brings no new drivers, the European market maintains the status quo.
- Japan (Nikkei 225): The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed on Sunday, with no major events on the Japanese agenda (aside from the report from Shimamura). The Nikkei 225 index is closing the year at high levels—earlier in 2025, it reached multi-decade highs amid a weak yen and rising profits for exporters. As the reporting season for July-September is behind most Japanese companies, investor focus shifts to upcoming benchmarks for 2026—the policy of the Bank of Japan and global demand dynamics.
- Russia (MOEX): The Moscow Exchange does not hold sessions on weekends, and no new corporate reports are scheduled for December 21. The recent decision by the Bank of Russia to lower the key rate to 16% per annum, aimed at supporting the economy, remains in the spotlight of the domestic market. This easing of monetary policy may give a boost to the shares of banks and borrowers, but the effect will only be felt at the beginning of 2026. Meanwhile, trading activity on the exchange is decreasing as the New Year holidays approach, and no significant movements are expected in the absence of news.
Global Markets: Bitcoin at a Peak, Oil Stable, Gold Setting Records
- Oil: Brent crude oil remains around $60 per barrel, demonstrating stability. The market is balanced, thanks to OPEC+ production cuts and moderate global demand; volatility remains low. Traders do not expect significant price fluctuations before the end of the year without unforeseen developments.
- Precious Metals: Gold has set a historic high, exceeding $4,300 per ounce, on expectations of declining Fed rates and as a safe asset against inflation. Silver is also at a multi-year peak (around $67). High precious metal prices reflect investor caution, as they continue to seek a "safe haven" for capital.
- Currencies: Movements in the currency market are minimal. The dollar index (DXY) is holding around 98 points, and major pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY) are trading within narrow ranges. Low activity is tied to the holiday season—liquidity is reduced, and traders are hesitant to open new positions ahead of the long weekend.
- Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating near $120,000—a record high reached during this year's rally. Weekend trading is calm; investors have partially secured profits after the recent upswing. Ethereum (ETH) is holding above $7,000. Despite this temporary lull, the crypto market remains sensitive to news—any major information event can quickly increase volatility.
Day Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- 1) China's LPR: The PBoC's decision on lending rates is a key signal from Asia. Maintaining the LPR at current levels will confirm a course towards stability, while any deviation (e.g., a cut) will indicate Beijing's readiness to support economic growth more actively. It is crucial to understand how long the Chinese regulator intends to maintain this soft approach and whether new stimuli will be needed at the beginning of 2026.
- 2) Shimamura Report: Quarterly results from the Japanese retailer will reflect the state of Japan's consumer market. Strong sales and profit growth will indicate healthy domestic demand (positive for the retail sector and Nikkei 225). If metrics disappoint, expectations for fiscal stimuli or additional steps by the Bank of Japan to support the economy will increase.
- 3) Market Activity: Global trading on Sunday is minimal, so the effects of the discussed events will only manifest when markets open on December 22. Low weekend liquidity means that even a single piece of news could cause disproportionate price movements at the start of the week. Special attention should be paid to the morning session in Shanghai, where Asia will react first.
- 4) Year-End Review: The period of low volumes ahead of the holidays is an opportunity to reassess strategy. A calm day can be dedicated to rebalancing the portfolio ahead of the new year and accounting for expected events in early 2026. This approach will help prepare for potential volatility in the first weeks of January.
