Economic Events and Corporate Reports — March 4, 2026 S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

Economic Calendar and Corporate Reports for Wednesday, March 4, 2026: Global PMI, ADP and ISM Services in the US, EIA Oil Inventories, CPI Inflation in Russia, and the Fed's Beige Book - Key Drivers for S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

Wednesday, March 4, 2026, sets a "cross-sectional" macro narrative for global markets: in Asia, investors are comparing the trajectory of business activity (PMI) with Australia’s growth rates, while Europe is assessing demand resilience through service PMIs, unemployment, and producer price inflation (PPI). The US is presenting multiple volatility drivers—ADP employment figures, S&P Global PMI, ISM Services PMI, and the Fed's Beige Book. For investors from the CIS, the day’s significance is amplified by the release of inflation data (CPI) in Russia and the "oil-ruble-yields" linkage in light of the EIA inventory report.

On the corporate front, attention shifts to the earnings reports of major public companies: the technology sector in the US is setting the tone through Broadcom's results, while in Europe, the key reports come from Bayer and Adidas. The combination of macro indicators and corporate forecasts could significantly influence the short-term direction of the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX indices.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 01:00 — Australia: Services/Composite PMI (February).
2. 03:30 — Australia: GDP (Q4 2024).
3. 04:45 — China: Caixin Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI (February).
4. 08:00 — India: Services/Composite PMI (February).
5. 09:00 — Russia: Services/Composite PMI (February).
6. 10:30 — Switzerland: CPI consumer inflation (February).
7. 11:55 — Germany: Services/Composite PMI (February).
8. 12:00 — Eurozone: Services/Composite PMI (February).
9. 12:30 — UK: Services/Composite PMI (February).
10. 13:00 — Eurozone: Producer Price Inflation (PPI) (January).
11. 13:00 — Eurozone: Unemployment (January).
12. 16:00 — Brazil: Services/Composite PMI (February).
13. 16:15 — US: ADP Nonfarm Employment (February).
14. 17:30 — Canada: Services/Composite PMI (February).
15. 17:45 — US: S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite PMI (February).
16. 18:00 — US: ISM Services PMI (February).
17. 18:30 — US: EIA Oil Inventories (weekly).
18. 19:00 — Russia: CPI consumer inflation.
19. 22:00 — US: Fed's Beige Book.

Asia-Pacific Focus: Australia, China, India

Asia opens the day with three clusters of data. Firstly, PMI readings for services and composite indices provide an immediate signal about demand and business activity at the beginning of the year. Secondly, Australia's GDP serves as a marker of domestic cycle resilience and the economy’s sensitivity to rates and external trade. Thirdly, Caixin PMI for China is traditionally viewed by the market as the “barometer” for the private sector, with surprises likely reflecting quickly in industrial metal prices and sentiment across Asian equities.

• For Nikkei 225 and Asian markets: Strong PMIs from China and India heighten expectations for regional demand and support cyclical sectors.
• For commodities and the energy sector: Improving PMIs in Asia typically bolster expectations for energy imports, impacting oil prices and the valuations of energy firms.
• For currencies: The combination of Australia's GDP and risk appetite in Asia influences the dynamics of "commodity" currencies and indirectly affects dollar/euro through flows into safe-haven assets.

Europe: Service PMIs, PPI, and Unemployment as a Test of Cycle Resilience

The European bloc revolves around three central questions: How stable is the services sector, is there upward cost pressure at the producer level, and how is the labor market evolving? Service PMIs from Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK set the foundational tone for European indices, including the Euro Stoxx 50. Eurozone PPI helps to evaluate the "pass-through" of price pressure to the next stage—consumer inflation—which is vital for rate expectations and bond yields. Unemployment is key to consumer demand and resilience in corporate revenues in retail, transport, and banking sectors.

For investors, it is practical to keep an eye on the following linkage: PMI → growth expectations → corporate revenue forecasts → multiples. If PMIs signal a slowdown, the market often re-evaluates cyclicals and amplifies demand for “quality” and defensive sectors.

US: ADP, PMI, and ISM Services — Principal Sources of Intraday Volatility

The American statistics for March 4 comprise a set of indicators that the market often uses as a "rehearsal" before the official labor market report and as a guide for expectations regarding Fed policy. ADP reflects hiring dynamics in the private sector and can significantly move UST yields and the dollar. Next, S&P Global PMI and especially ISM Services PMI provide a qualitative picture of demand in the services sector, which dominates the US economy and shapes the base inflation dynamics for services.

How to Read ISM Services PMI

• New orders — a signal for future revenues of service and logistics companies.
• Prices (prices paid) — an indicator of inflation pressure, vital for rate expectations.
• Employment — confirmation/rejection of the ADP storyline and labor market expectations.

In the evening, the Fed's Beige Book could enhance or temper market reactions: if regional reviews indicate a cooling of demand and normalization of price pressure, this often supports risk appetite; if the focus shifts to persistent inflation and labor shortages, the probability of a more hawkish rhetoric and pressure on growth stocks increases.

Oil and Commodities: EIA Inventory Report as a Driver for Energy and Inflation Expectations

The weekly EIA oil inventories report (18:30 MSK) is traditionally a high-volatility event for Brent and WTI, which in turn affects energy companies and inflation expectations. For the markets, it's important not only to track the direction of crude oil inventories but also the details:

• Gasoline and distillate inventories — an indirect indicator of demand and seasonal fuel consumption.
• Refinery throughput — a marker for refining margins and product supply.
• Export/import balance — a short-term balancing factor affecting spreads and futures curve dynamics.

For investors in the CIS, the transmission is crucial: oil → currency revenue for exporters → expectations for the ruble → valuation of Russian assets and the MOEX index. Even with neutral inventory data, volatility may arise in energy sector stocks if the market revises demand expectations amid PMIs from Asia and the US.

Russia: Services PMI and CPI as Indicators for the Ruble, OFZ, and MOEX

Data on Services PMI (09:00 MSK) and especially CPI (19:00 MSK) shape the expectations for monetary policy. For the Russian market, this influences three key channels:

1. Ruble rate — through expectations of real rates and capital flows.
2. OFZ yields — through the reassessment of the path of the key rate and inflation risks.
3. Stocks (MOEX) — through the discounting of future cash flows and sector rotation (banks/retail/exporters).

If the CPI exceeds expectations, the market typically prices in a longer period of high rates, supporting yields and potentially exerting pressure on rate-sensitive sectors. Conversely, softer inflation increases the chance of renewed interest in "long" assets and dividend stories.

Corporate Reports: US (Key Companies of the Day)

Midweek is packed with earnings reports from companies likely to influence sector dynamics within the S&P 500 and risk appetite within the tech segment. It is essential for investors to assess not only profits and revenue but also guidance, margins, and management commentary on demand.

Post-Market Close in the US (AMC)

• Broadcom — a technological benchmark for AI infrastructure and networking solutions; the market will pay close attention to order dynamics and revenue forecasts.
• Okta — an indicator of corporate IT budgets and demand for cyber and identity solutions; focus on customer retention and subscription growth rates.
• Veeva Systems — a litmus test for vertical SaaS in pharma and biotech; growth rates and revenue quality are crucial.

During the Day/Before Opening (Consumer Demand Focus)

• Abercrombie & Fitch — a marker for consumer demand and promotional pressure in the apparel segment.
• Bath & Body Works — an indicator of consumer spending and margin dynamics in retail.
• Brown-Forman — reflecting consumption trends in brand categories and price elasticity of demand.

Corporate Reports: Europe, Middle East, and Other Markets

In Europe, the earnings reports for March 4 are centered around major names sensitive to the consumer cycle and industrial conditions, which is important for the Euro Stoxx 50 and related indices.

• Bayer — evaluation of pharma/agro segments, debt burden, and margin prospects.
• adidas — a signal regarding the global consumer, regional sales trends, and the impact of currency fluctuations on profits.
• Dassault Aviation — an indicator of investment demand and order book in aviation.
• ACWA Power — focus on capital-intensive energy and project implementation rates (important for assessing global infrastructure trends).

Across Asian markets (including the Nikkei 225), the day is more heavily influenced by the macro backdrop of PMIs and currency dynamics; the earnings season continues, but key narratives are often overshadowed by US statistics and commodity fluctuations. For the Russian market on March 4, the focus shifts towards macro indicators (PMI and CPI), while corporate publications from major issuers are more targeted and require careful monitoring of disclosures.

What Investors Should Pay Attention to on Wednesday, March 4, 2026

1. Global Synchronization of PMIs: Compare China/India/Europe — this is a quick indicator of whether global demand is strengthening or whether the economy is entering a cooling phase.
2. The US as the "Center of Gravity" of the Day: Reactions to ADP and ISM Services can swiftly alter expectations regarding the Fed, yields, and the dollar—thus affecting assessments of growth stocks and commodity assets.
3. Oil and EIA Report: Volatile movements may occur in the energy sector; consider the implications for inflation expectations and the currencies of commodity-exporting countries.
4. Russia: CPI and Interest Rate: Inflation sets the tone for the ruble, OFZ, and MOEX; assess the sensitivity of the portfolio to interest rates and currency strengthening/weakening.
5. Corporate Reports: Broadcom and European "heavyweights" have the potential to shift sector demand structures; the key lies in management forecasts and margin quality, not just quarterly results.

The day's takeaway for investors: March 4, 2026, serves as a test of global cycle resilience via PMIs, a barometer of Fed expectations through employment and ISM Services, and an "energy impulse" driven by EIA oil inventories. In such conditions, it is prudent to predefine risk levels for the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX indices, as well as maintain a contingency plan should there be sharp reassessments of rates and commodity volatility.