Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Saturday, July 25, 2026: Empty Macroeconomic Calendar, Weekly Summary for S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX, Key Rate Cut by the Bank of Russia to 14%, New Tariff Round in the U.S., and Market Preparation for the Fed's Decision and Big Tech Reports
Saturday, July 25, 2026, arrives for global markets after one of the most nerve-wracking weeks of the second half of the year. There are no economic publications planned for this day: stock exchanges in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia are closed, official statistics are not being released, and corporate reports from large public companies do not land on the weekend. However, such a pause provides investors the opportunity to consolidate the disparate signals of the week into a coherent picture. Over five trading days, markets received the ECB's decision, the cut in the key interest rate by the Bank of Russia, a spike in Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel, a new round of U.S. import tariffs, and the first wave of disappointments concerning artificial intelligence. The economic events and corporate reports of July 25, 2026, should be interpreted as a day for risk reassessment ahead of the Fed’s meeting and the reporting of major technology companies.
Macroeconomic Calendar: Why Are Markets Silent on July 25?
The global economic calendar is empty for this Saturday across all key jurisdictions.
- U.S.: No publications from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, BLS, or regional Fed banks are scheduled. The market is digesting the preliminary PMI for July, which showed the fastest growth in business activity in eight months, and a drop in initial jobless claims to a 57-year low.
- Eurozone: Following the ECB meeting and the block of preliminary PMIs from Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, there is no new data. Inflation in the block remains around 2.8%, against a target level of 2%.
- Asia: Japan, China, and India do not publish releases. Attention is shifting to Chinese PMIs and the Bank of Japan's decision expected at the end of next week.
- Russia: Rosstat and the Bank of Russia are not publishing any releases. Weekly inflation for July 14–20 remained at 0.17%, mirroring the result from the previous week.
Weekly Summary: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX
The week concluded with a second consecutive decline in the U.S. market. On Thursday, the S&P 500 lost 1.21%, closing at 7,408.30 points — the worst day in over a month. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.15%, to 25,137.69 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.97%, to 51,711.65 points. On Friday, the indices partially recovered losses amidst a pullback in oil prices, but the weekly outcome remained negative. The combined market capitalization of the "magnificent seven" fell by nearly $800 billion in just one Thursday.
European indices moved synchronously with Wall Street: the Euro Stoxx 50 fell by 1.69% on Thursday, the DAX by 1.56%, the CAC 40 by 1.64%, and the FTSE 100 by 0.73%. The Nikkei 225 remained in the positive due to a weak yen and a robust export sector. In the early hours of Friday, the MOEX index dipped below 2,100 points before the Central Bank's decision, but then switched to an upward trend after the results of the meeting were published.
Oil and Geopolitics: Brent Above $100 and Retreating to $95
The primary source of volatility for the week was the energy market. Following statements from Yemeni Houthis regarding attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, Brent prices exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since late May. The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly rose above 4.7% — the highest level since the beginning of the year. On Friday, prices reversed direction: Brent lost about 5% and fell below $95 on reports of potential restarting negotiations between Washington and Tehran with the mediation of third countries. Nevertheless, by the end of the week, oil finished higher, and the geopolitical risk premium in prices remains significant.
New U.S. Tariffs: 10–12.5% for 60 Trade Partners
As of 12:01 AM Eastern Time on July 24, a new tariff regime in the U.S. came into effect. The administration imposed additional tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 major trading partners, including the EU, China, and India, following an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. This measure covers approximately 99.4% of U.S. imports and replaces the expired temporary 10% global tariff. A range of energy products has been exempted from the tariffs. For investors, this signifies a new structural cost factor for importers, retail, and industrial supply chains — and an additional pro-inflation risk for the Fed.
Corporate Reports of the Week: U.S. Companies in the S&P 500
The earnings season for the second quarter of 2026 has crossed its midpoint. Among the first 95 companies reporting in the S&P 500, around 88% exceeded consensus earnings estimates with a median beat of about 7%. However, the market response to share prices was asymmetric: investors penalized increases in capital expenditures more than they rewarded earnings growth.
Technologies and Artificial Intelligence
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — revenue grew by 24% to $119.8 billion, earnings were $9.11 per share, and Google Cloud's revenue increased by 82%. However, the doubling of capital expenditure guidance to $205 billion caused shares to plummet by over 7%.
- Tesla (TSLA) — revenue grew by 26% to $28.2 billion, but earnings per share fell by 18% to $0.33, while free cash flow turned negative at -$1.1 billion. The stock dropped about 14%.
- Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM, and ServiceNow (NOW) reported amidst a general correction in the semiconductor sector.
Finance, Consumer, and Telecom
- American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), and NextEra Energy (NEE) exceeded profit forecasts on Friday but fell short on revenue.
- Capital One (COF), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Blackstone (BX), Chubb (CB), and Comcast (CMCSA) rounded out the financial and media sectors’ performance.
Industry, Energy, and Transportation
- General Motors (GM), 3M (MMM), Honeywell (HON), RTX, Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) reflected the resilience of the defense cycle.
- Union Pacific (UNP), Norfolk Southern (NSC), CSX, and Canadian National Railway (CNI) provided insights into industrial activity in North America.
- SLB, Halliburton (HAL), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and Newmont (NEM) served as indicators for the commodity cycle.
Europe and Asia: SAP, STMicroelectronics, and Shin-Etsu Chemical
From companies in the Euro Stoxx 50 and the European market, SAP SE, STMicroelectronics (STM), and Rogers Communications reported. The Asian block presented Japanese chemical giant Shin-Etsu Chemical, which is part of the Nikkei 225 and serves as a leading indicator for the semiconductor supply chain. The overall conclusion for the Old World is that the industrial segment continues to lag behind services, while energy costs remain the primary risk to margins for European exporters.
Russian Market: Key Rate at 14% and MOEX Issuer Reports
On July 24, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum — the fourth easing since the beginning of the year. The new medium-term forecast suggests an average key rate in the range of 14.5%–14.6% for 2026 and 10.5%–12.5% for 2027. The regulator noted moderate economic growth in the second quarter and attributed the summer acceleration in prices primarily to one-off factors, simultaneously highlighting rising inflation expectations. A summary of the discussion will be published on August 5, with the next meeting scheduled for September 11.
Market reaction was positive: after dipping below 2,100 points in the morning, the MOEX index reversed upward. The dollar rate set by the Bank of Russia from July 24 stood at 78.4049 rubles. Among corporate news for the week, a notable highlight was the decline in "NOVATEK's" net income under IFRS for the first half of the year to 218.6 billion rubles, the mixed results from "Rusagro" for the second quarter with a dividend recommendation of 16.48 rubles per share, and the inclusion of "Yandex" shares in the Moscow Exchange's value creation index starting July 30.
Next Week's Calendar: Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Big Tech
- Tuesday, July 28 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the U.S.
- Wednesday, July 29 — Inflation in Australia; the Fed's interest rate decision (current range of 3.50%–3.75%) and press conference by Fed Chief Kevin Warsh. The meeting will take place without updated macro forecasts and dot plots, so all attention will be on the wording of the statement. Reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META).
- Thursday, July 30 — GDP for Germany and the Eurozone, Bank of England's decision, inflation in Germany, U.S. GDP for the second quarter and PCE deflator, consumer inflation in Japan. Reports from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).
- Friday, July 31 — Business activity indices in China, Bank of Japan's decision (current rate of 0.50%), and preliminary inflation in the Eurozone.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- The Interaction of Oil, Yields, and the Fed. The rise of Brent above $100 coupled with record-low jobless claims has shifted market expectations towards a tighten policy by the Fed. For investors, this represents a risk of re-evaluation of long-term bonds and growth companies.
- Capital Expenditures as a New Evaluation Criteria. The response to Alphabet’s report indicated that the market has shifted from rewarding the scale of AI investments to demanding proof of returns. Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will be a crucial test of this thesis.
- The Tariff Factor. Tariffs of 10-12.5% on 99.4% of U.S. imports necessitate a reassessment of margin models for retail, consumer goods, and industrial importers.
- Russian Assets. The 14% rate and forecast for an average rate of 10.5%-12.5% for 2027 support long-term OFZs and indebted issuers — developers, retailers, and transportation. A restraining factor is the seasonal dividend cut-off period and weak index performance since early July.
- Seasonality. August marks the beginning of the historically weakest three-month period for the U.S. stock market, enhancing arguments for reducing leverage and checking hedged positions before markets open on Monday.
Saturday, July 25, 2026 — a day without quotes but not without conclusions. The global market environment enters the last week of the month with three simultaneously active sources of risk: the geopolitical premium in oil, the tariff overhaul of trade flows, and the reevaluation of the artificial intelligence economy. It is prudent for investors to utilize this pause for scenario planning across each of these areas and determine response levels in advance — before the Fed's decision and Big Tech's reporting set the tone for markets in August.
