Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Tuesday, January 6, 2026: Services PMI, Germany CPI, API oil inventories

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for January 6, 2026: Services PMI, German Inflation, API Oil Stocks, Ukraine Meeting, and Company Reports from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

The first working Tuesday of the new year is filled with crucial data for investors worldwide. The focus will be on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the services sector for December in several key economies — from Australia and India to the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. In Europe, the publication of inflation data from Germany will stand out: the price dynamics of the largest economy in the EU will help gauge the next steps of the European Central Bank. Concurrently, the geopolitical agenda will remind us of the meeting of the coalition of allies in Ukraine at the highest level in France, the outcome of which could influence market risk appetite. On the corporate front, earnings reports continue to arrive: although early January traditionally does not feature a plethora of major releases, investors will monitor the results of several companies from the US, Asia, and other regions that could set the tone for specific sectors. Overall, the combination of macro statistics and corporate news on Tuesday will shape the first benchmarks for global markets in 2026. It is essential to analyze the indicators in conjunction: strong PMIs will indicate the health of the economy, while a slowdown in inflation will support bonds and stocks, whereas geopolitical decisions may alter the dynamics of commodity prices and currencies.

Macro Economic Calendar (Moscow Time)

1. Throughout the day — France: high-level meeting of Ukraine's allied countries ("coalition of the willing").
2. 01:00 — Australia: Services PMI for December.
3. 08:00 — India: Services PMI and Composite PMI for December.
4. 11:55 — Germany: Services PMI / Composite PMI (December).
5. 12:00 — Eurozone: Final estimates of Services PMI and Composite PMI (December).
6. 12:30 — UK: Final Services PMI and Composite PMI (December).
7. 16:00 — Brazil: Services PMI and Composite PMI (December).
8. 16:00 — Germany: Consumer Price Index (CPI, December).
9. 17:30 — Canada: Services PMI and Composite PMI (December).
10. 17:45 — US: Services Business Activity Index (S&P Global Services PMI) and Composite PMI (December).
11. 00:30 (Wed) — US: Weekly API oil stocks.

Global Services PMI: A Signal for Growth Rates

The December Services PMIs are being released across numerous countries, providing a comprehensive view of the state of the global economy at the close of 2025. It is crucial for investors to assess whether the resilience of the services sector, which often compensated for industrial weaknesses last year, is maintained. In the Asia-Pacific region, Australian figures may show the influence of tourism recovery and domestic demand, while India, traditionally exhibiting high growth rates, is likely to remain in a zone of solid expansion above 50 points. The European final PMIs (Germany, Eurozone, UK) will either confirm or correct preliminary estimates: an improvement in business activity in the services sector in December will bolster hopes for a soft landing for the economy, while a decline in PMI will indicate persistent pressures from high rates on businesses and consumers. In the US, the PMI from S&P Global will complete the overall picture: an increase in the indicator will signal sustained demand in the services sector and support the stock market, while a signal of slowing activity could heighten expectations for a more accommodative Fed policy. Overall, synchronous growth in Services PMI from different countries will act as a positive driver for global markets, supporting cyclical stocks and emerging markets, while heterogeneous or weak data will heighten interest in defensive assets.

Germany: Is Inflation Slowing Down?

Investors in Europe will focus on the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) from Germany — a key indicator for assessing the inflation backdrop in the Eurozone. Previous months have shown a decline in Germany's annual inflation closer to target levels of 2-3%, and new data will confirm whether this trend has been maintained. A slowdown in price growth in December (especially in the food and energy components) will strengthen expectations that the European Central Bank will refrain from further rate hikes: this is a positive signal for markets, supporting German government bonds (Bunds) and the DAX index. Conversely, an unexpected acceleration in inflation could alarm investors: a rise in CPI above forecasts would revive discussions about the necessity for further tightening of ECB policy, which typically exerts pressure on European stocks and leads to an increase in bond yields. Special attention will be paid to core inflation (excluding prices for energy and food), reflecting domestic price pressures in the services sector and wages. Data from Germany will also set the tone ahead of the overall inflation statistics for the Eurozone: markets will assess the outlook for the euro's exchange rate and the Euro Stoxx 50 dynamics through the lens of German figures.

Oil and Commodities: Focus on Stocks and Geopolitics

Energy prices on Tuesday may be influenced by two factors: the weekly statistics on oil stocks in the US and international political developments. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release data on commercial oil and petroleum product inventories for the past week in the early hours of Wednesday. Previous API reports noted volatility in stocks at the year-end — from significant reductions due to rising export demand to unexpected inventory build-up. If the fresh data shows a significant decrease in oil stocks, it will support Brent and WTI prices, signaling steady demand and constrained market supplies. Conversely, an increase in stocks may temporarily weaken oil prices, heightening concerns over an oversupply or declining demand. An additional factor on Tuesday will be the aforementioned meeting of the "coalition of the willing" regarding Ukraine: any escalatory statements or new sanctions are likely to influence commodity markets, particularly the oil market and gas prices, given Russia's role and its allies in global energy supply. Overall, investors in commodity markets will need to pay attention to both the API figures and news from the realm of high politics on this day.

Geopolitics: Ukraine Allies Coalition Meeting

A high level of geopolitical activity on Tuesday will be represented by the summit in France involving the countries of the "coalition of the willing" supporting Ukraine. This diplomatic forum, gathering leaders and high-ranking representatives from key Western nations, aims to coordinate further military and financial assistance to Ukraine, as well as discuss strategy in light of the ongoing conflict. For financial markets, the outcomes of the meeting are important in terms of overall risk appetite: confirmation of ally unity and expanded support may bolster investor confidence in the stability of the situation in Europe, indirectly supporting the euro and assets of emerging markets in the region. On the other hand, if disagreements arise during the meeting or no concrete decisions are made, this could heighten geopolitical uncertainty. News from Paris may particularly impact defense sector companies (in case announcements about new arms supply contracts are made) and commodity markets, especially if sanctions against energy resources are discussed. Investors will monitor statements from meeting participants and the willingness of countries to intensify sanctions or hint at possible peaceful resolutions to the conflict.

Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, US and Asia)

• RPM International (RPM) — an American manufacturer of construction materials and coatings. Investors anticipate the report for the last quarter of the 2025 financial year: the focus will be on margin performance in the construction chemicals and finishing materials segments amid volatile raw material prices. Positive forecasts for demand in construction and renovation may support RPM's stock as well as the entire industrial materials sector.
• Takashimaya Co. (8233.T) — one of Japan's largest department store chains. The company will present results for the pre-holiday quarter, which includes the sales season and New Year purchases. Key metrics include comparable sales growth in major cities and consumer demand dynamics in offline retail. Investors will also pay attention to management's comments on tourist flows and the recovery of internal consumption in Japan.
• Lindsay Corporation (LNN) — a manufacturer of irrigation systems and agricultural equipment (US). The company’s report will provide insights into farmers' capital investments amid volatile agricultural product prices. Attention will be focused on the volume of new orders for irrigation systems and infrastructure projects, as well as profitability, given rising raw material and logistics costs.
• AngioDynamics (ANGO) — an American medical technology company specializing in minimally invasive surgery and therapy equipment. In the quarterly financial result, analysts will look for signs of improved sales of key product lines and reduced losses. Focus will be on revenue growth rates in oncology and vascular surgery segments, as well as management's revised forecast for reaching profitability.
• AZZ Inc. (AZZ) — an industrial group in the US operating in energy and utility equipment, as well as metal protection services (hot-dip galvanizing). AZZ's report will serve as an indicator of activity in infrastructure projects and the energy sector. Investors will assess the volume of orders for electrical equipment and metal structures, as well as profit dynamics amid the implementation of federal infrastructure modernization programs.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, US)

• AAR Corp. (AIR) — an American company providing maintenance and supply services in the aerospace industry. AAR's quarterly report will show how confidently the recovery of civil aviation continues: an increase in revenues from aircraft maintenance and parts supply signals heightened activity among air carriers. Also important are comments on the company's defense contracts and the status of its clients — the Air Force and other government bodies.
• Penguin Solutions (PENG) — a technology company specializing in high-performance computing (HPC), corporate server platforms, and memory components. While Penguin Solutions is a mid-cap company, its results are of interest in light of trends in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The market will be looking at revenue from data center solutions and the business’s margins amid strong demand for AI and data storage equipment.
• Saratoga Investment Corp. (SAR) — an investment company (BDC) providing funding to small and mid-sized businesses in the US. Saratoga Investment's report after market close may provide a signal regarding the state of the credit market: the dynamics of net investment income and loan volumes will reflect both companies' capital needs and the quality of the credit portfolio. Investors will also pay attention to the size of the BDC dividend, which is sensitive to profit fluctuations.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: no significant individual reports are expected for leading European companies on January 6, thus macro data will set the tone for trading in the Eurozone. The Composite Services PMI and inflation in Germany will shape expectations regarding the EU economy, affecting the banking sector and consumer companies. Exchange rates of the euro and pound may respond to the statistics, which will reflect on regional exporters. Overall, the European market will assess how confidently the region is exiting a period of muted growth during winter.
• Nikkei 225 / Japan: the Japanese stock market is on the brink of the main earnings season for the third quarter of the financial year. While most of Japan's major corporations will publish results closer to the end of January, some releases are already drawing attention. In particular, the performance of retailers like Takashimaya will provide an early signal of consumer activity during the holiday season. Additionally, external factors, including yen dynamics and PMI data from China, may influence investor sentiment in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 will react sensitively to the technology sector: any news about demand for electronics and semiconductors will provide direction for high-tech blue-chip stocks.
• MOEX / Russia: the Russian stock market returns to action after extended New Year holidays, so investor activity on January 6 may be lower than usual. No significant corporate earnings reports from issuers in the Moscow Exchange index are expected on this day: traditionally, the publication of financial results for the entire 2025 year begins later, in January-February. Nevertheless, external benchmarks — global oil prices and sentiments in global markets — will be decisive for the dynamics of Russian stocks and the ruble rate. Some companies may disclose operational figures for December (e.g., production volumes for oil and gas producers or sales for retailers), giving local investors extra grounds for reassessing positions. Overall, the MOEX enters the new year influenced by external factors and geopolitical rhetoric, maintaining a focus on commodity trends and the Bank of Russia's monetary policy.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

• Global Services PMI: synchronous improvement in Services PMIs (especially in the Eurozone, the UK, and the US) will be a positive signal for stock markets and commodities. However, weak indicators in certain countries may intensify discussions about recession risks — leading to increased interest in bonds and defensive assets.
• German Inflation: December CPI figures will set the tone for ECB policy expectations. Soft inflation data (below forecasts) could bolster European bonds and weaken the euro, supporting stocks in rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, auto financing). Conversely, an unexpected increase in inflation may exert pressure on the Euro Stoxx 50 and lead to a localized strengthening of the euro in Forex.
• Oil and Commodities: the API report on oil stocks may provoke price movements in energy resources during the Asian and European sessions on Wednesday. Investors in oil and gas companies should be prepared for volatility: a decline in stocks will strengthen Brent quotes and stocks in the oil and gas sector, while an increase in stocks or negative news from the Ukraine summit may weaken the oil market.
• Geopolitical News: the results of the coalition meeting on Ukraine in France will have a delayed impact. Any statements about expanding support or, conversely, disagreements among allies may affect European markets and the euro rate. Additionally, an escalation in sanction rhetoric may impact commodity markets (oil, metals) and stocks of companies related to these sectors.
• Corporate Earnings: among the releases of the day, particular interest lies with RPM International (an indicator for the construction sector) before the market opens and AAR Corp. (aviation sector) after the close. Their results and outlooks may locally influence relevant sector indices. Investors should also pay attention to the technological aspects of reports (e.g., data from Penguin Solutions in the HPC segment) and signals of consumer demand from Asia (Takashimaya sales) — these factors will help adjust strategies at the start of the new year.
• Risk Management: given the abundance of divergent events — from macroeconomic data to geopolitics — January 6 may bring increased volatility to markets. It would be prudent for investors to pre-determine key levels for their positions and utilize protective tools (stop orders, hedging), while avoiding excessive risks ahead of the most critical indicators. By balancing between PMI data, inflation, and updates, it is advisable to maintain diversification and monitor asset correlation within the portfolio.